Nomad-Dollars-Sense-Part2-Bob Davis Podcast 1102

Nomad Dollar Sense Part2

Firstly to focus on nomad dollars and sense in Part2 we’re going to be talking about leading economic indicators. Details in Nomad-Dollars-Sense-Part2-Bob Davis Podcast 1102. For references to details in this podcast listen to Part1 of this series and Bob Davis Podcast 1069.

Don’t Be Afraid Of Numbers

Secondly I use a few numbers.

Data Links With Charts

Therefore I’ll be posting a series of links to the data and charts for that data here.

Because we all know charts often make raw numbers a little clearer.

Not Just Reciting Numbers

However listeners and subscribers should know I’ve worked very hard to keep from just reciting numbers.

Context and Relevance

That is to say that where ever time permits in Nomad-Dollars-Sense-Part2-Bob Davis Podcast 1102 I’ll explain the context and relevance of an indicator.

Most importantly these leading economic indicators do not suggest a healthy economy.

Certainly things could change to the better…

Look Beyond Main Stream

But for the time being we would all be better served to look beyond the mainstream and main street story.

Leading Indicators

To begin with here’s a link to the conference board’s leading indicators.

Hours Worked

And hours worked by Americans nationally.

US GDP

Here’s the GDP numbers for the United States.

Consumer Price Index

And the Consumer Price Index.

Rents Headed Down

More importantly when it comes to rents, take a look at the Zillow Rent Index.

Especially relevant here is the fact that thousands of apartments are being built or coming on line at this time.

Moreover while that’s better for renters it’s not good news if you just bought an apartment building.

In addition this is a number which speaks to inflation overall which still shows shelter elevated.

Producer Price Index

Even more when it comes to inflation the PPI is a better forward indicator of economic growth than the CPI.

Inflation Disinflation Deflation

To sum up these are just some of the data that suggests we’re moving pretty quickly through the inflation, disinflation and deflation sequence.

CRE Loans

Again on consumer and commercial real estate here’s the commercial real estate loan application chart.

Commercial Real Estate Defaults

As an aside commercial real estate defaults are at a fourteen year high.

Mortgage Applications

And mortgage loan applications are down significantly.

Case Schiller

Finally the Case Schiller Home Price Index has been contracting for while and is now dropping. This is the first decline in several years.

Manufacturing

Equally important are the manufacturing numbers.

Oil

Correspondingly the commodity of oil is not following the rosy predictions of the International Oil Agency.

Corporate Profits Already In Recession

As an illustration the American Consumer is also not cooperating …corporate profits are in a recession.

Consumer Credit

Another bell weather is total consumer credit.

Consumer Credit Interest Rates Eating Us Alive

And average consumer credit rates are more than 23 percent these days.

Baltic Dry Is Dry

Furthermore when it comes to transportation costs the Baltic Dry index for the far east has deteriorated significantly.

Real GDP

Another indicator is Real GDP.

Money Supply

By all means the most important indicator and noteworthy metric is the actual money supply.

Again this is not a robustly healthy economy.

To be sure if it was I wouldn’t have to do this podcast series.

Economic Cycles Are Not Synchronized

All things considered Doctor Lacy Hunt’s views on the economic cycle are salient. Watch this video.

In conclusion there’s a lot of data to unpack.

Looking Closer

But looking closer might be the best thing we can do for ourselves right now.

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

Nomad-Dollars-Sense-Part2-Bob Davis Podcast 1102

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Turning-Point-Eruption-Bob Davis Podcast 1079

Are We At A Turning Point About To Erupt

Above all this podcast asks if we are at a turning point on the eve of an economic eruption. Details in Turning-Point-Eruption-Bob Davis Podcast 1079.

Watching Markets

Firstly I have been watching the economy and the markets very closely ever since the rapid increase of fuel prices last year.

Secondly I’ve done a series of podcasts detailing what I have learned about this situation.

Finally I am clear on the causes of the current inflation.

And the solution.

About To Suffer

Even more as the central banks work to smother the current inflation, we’re about to suffer.

Volcanic Social Eruption

That is to say when it goes it could be a volcanic eruption in our society.

Of course people might say I am a pessimist.

I am not.

In fact I believe all of this will eventually be seen as a positive development.

Difficult Road Ahead

However we have to get to through the difficult road ahead first.

Top Of The Roller Coaster

For example imagine yourself at the very top of a roller coaster.

As the coaster heads down there’s a feeling of weightlessness.

And then fear.

Biggest Bubble In History

That is to say today we have what many experts describe as the biggest everything bubble in history.

The More You Know

Certainly I have learned the more you know about these things the less you know.

But what interests me are the potential volcanic effects on our society.

And the melt down.

Round House

In conclusion it’s as though our train as reached the old fashioned round house house having come in on one track.

And being turned to go out in a different direction.

Living Through The Easy Part

In short if you think the past couple of years have been tough think again.

We’ve been living through the easy part of the cycle.

In the same vein now comes the hard part.

Clinging To The Old World

Finally given the situation it’s interesting how people use debt to cling to an old lifestyle.

Ignorance Is Bliss

And how many seem unaware they’re living on top of a volcano.

About to erupt.

Turning-Point-Eruption-Bob Davis Podcast 1079

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With-A-Grain-Of-Salt-Bob Davis Podcast 1073

Take It With A Grain Of Salt

Above all take it with a grain of salt. Lots of loose talk on almost every subject these days so let’s address it in With-A-Grain-Of-Salt-Bob Davis Podcast 1073.

Don’t Do This Very Often

Firstly I don’t often delve these deep into current events. Here’s why.

Can’t Ignore

On the other hand sometimes you can’t ignore whats going on.

Nomads Feel It Too

Even more we nomads feel it too.

Loose Talk About Dangerous Things

Secondly the elephant in the room these days is loose talk about complex and dangerous subjects.

Grain Of Salt

Therefore I have decided to talk about it in With-A-Grain-Of-Salt-Bob Davis Podcast 1073.

But With A Lighter Touch

However my discussion of some subjects that could trigger some is with a lighter and more gauzy approach.

Not Going To Ruin The Vibe

Certainly I am not going to ruin the vibe with a lot of details and ‘positions’.

There’s too much of that.

YouTube

In the same vein I would imagine the number one source of information in Nomad Land is YouTube.

Not A Lot Of Fact Checking

As a result there’s not a lot of fact checking going on.

Doom Mongers Require Discussion

So when they start telling us about the chances of a nuclear war or a financial meltdown that requires clarification and a little but of discussion.

Difficult Time

Most importantly I don’t think anyone would argue we’re living through one of the most difficult times in the recent past.

Historically Difficult Time

Furthermore it may prove eventually to be one of the most difficult times for everyday people in history.

And yet life goes on.

Take It Lightly

To sum up With-A-Grain-Of-Salt-Bob Davis Podcast 1073 reminds us all to take what people say on social media and in media in general with a grain of salt.

Better Advice

Finally if things become more serious it’s even better advice.

Issues and Nomad Travel Don’t Always Go Together

In short I don’t often talk about issues like these in my nomad travel podcasts.

The Elephant In The Room

But every now and then you can’t ignore the so called elephant in the room.

And this is a pretty big elephant.

With-A-Grain-Of-Salt-Bob Davis Podcast 1073

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