Podcast 569-Final State by State Round Up. Where the state polls stand for presidential candidates right before election day 2016. This podcast does not endorse a candidate. I will not make you feel good or bad about your vote, or non vote. I will not attach ‘indexes’ and ‘percentage probabilities’ to potential wins or losses for the candidates. In Podcast 569-Final State by State Round Up, how candidates fare in each of the states according to existing polls. Partisan and advocacy journalists don’t provide insight on survey research. I do. What you’re getting from the cable news channels and advocacy news ‘websites’ are charlatans pushing their point of view. Fact is, no one knows how the election will play out in any of the so called battleground states. That’s because despite all the best effort, even the best political researchers are challenged to determine who is actually going to show up to vote especially when the polls show a close vote, within the margins of error. Elections are made on who votes. Not the number of signs. Not the number of people who show up at rallies. Not who ran the best TV spots. It’s all about getting the vote out. Once the vote is in, it’s all about counting. Is the election rigged? In a sense, yes. The United States is a representative republic which elects its executive not by the popular vote but through an institution known as the Electoral College. Some states’ electoral slates are proportionally chosen. Some states select electoral slates by party. The electors themselves have already been chosen. They will actually select the President of the United States on December 15th, 2016. In some states the popular vote determines how the electors are ‘supposed’ to vote. In some states it depends on which party’s candidate wins the overall vote. No so called ‘rogue elector‘ has ever been prosecuted for voting outside the state statute guidelines. In the event of an electoral tie, the election will be decided by the US House of Representatives. One thing is true, the republicans are the ones talking about ‘rigged’ elections right now, but if Donald Trump wins the presidency they’ll stop talking about that immediately and the democrats will start talking about things being ‘rigged’. The only thing coverage of these kinds of conspiracies do is reduce the faith Americans and the rest of the world has in the electoral process. In reality, ‘rigging’ a national election is a difficult task, despite what movies and conspiracy theorists say. If you are concerned about your candidate winning the election, the best thing you can do is turn off the TV and get out and help them win by driving people to the polls or making last minute calls, poll watching, or if you’re qualified, volunteering as an election judge. Thankfully we’ll be looking at election night results in the next podcast. Sponsored by Hydrus Performance and Brush Studio, in the West End, Saint Louis Park.
Podcast 554-Latest Election State By State Polls. For you political junkies, which includes me, it’s been a month since the last analysis of political polls state by state, and I promised another one at the end of September, 2016. If you want to compare the two state by state poll podcasts to really get a sense of movement check out Podcast 541. I do not intend to analyze the debate. I will not tell you who won the debate. I will not tell you whether people pay attention to the debates. None of the current state by state polls were taken after the debates so they do not reflect the effects on either candidate of the debates. With this in mind, over 80 million people watched the September 26th debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. The next state-by-state poll roundup podcast at the end of October will show what effect – if any – the debates may or may not have had. The biggest change between this podcast and the podcast in late August is that there are now more ‘toss up’ states — that is states with poll averages for president within the margin of error. In Podcast 554-State By State Polls, I am drawing on data from Real Clear Politics. Follow the link directly to an interactive electoral map of the United States and follow along, or may your own map. The tightening could be knock on effects from Clinton’s bad week of September 11th, or it could just be due to more polls closer to the election, when respondents start paying attention and are more likely to give responses. You’ll have to listen for my conclusions about whether more toss up states mean anything, but for the most part, both candidates are within the margins in 2012 and 2008 in the states they lead, or are trading leads. The big questions remain Florida, Ohio, Pennsyvania, Virginia, and to a lesser extent North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, and western states like Colorado, Arizona and Nevada. This is a state by state electoral election, so the national polls don’t matter, and the snap polls on who won the debate don’t matter. All that matters is the candidate’s performance, and get out the vote efforts for them in key electoral states. Listen and learn the state by state strongholds, battlegrounds, advantages and disadvantages, roughly a month out. We’ll come back at the end of October and again just before the election in early November, and see how the campaigning, media, and news events have changed the political landscape. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing of Saint Paul.
Super Tuesday. Final thoughts from Norman, Oklahoma as this Road Trip draws to a close, On the eve of Super Tuesday, 2016. A dozen or so states and territories have primaries or caucuses scheduled for democrat and republican parties. The media has covered — and will continue to cover — this primary season like a general election and now we have arrived at the second big day after Iowa’s Caucuses a month or so ago … Super Tuesday. For people wondering who to vote for. For people who think this is the actual election. For people who believe the charlatans on talk radio, and the talking heads on TV, and the blow hards at the local political meetings telling you what you should do; Some points to ground you. This is not a general election. These candidates are running to amass delegates to the party convention. Delegates who probably won’t even vote to nominate the candidate they may or may not be pledged to when the final vote for the nomination comes at the end of the mainline party conventions this summer. Candidates are coming to your state and your town to talk to the movers and shakers in the parties, and they’re making deals behind the scenes while the media covers the little shows they put on for the public called ‘retail political’ events. They’re all the same. Meanwhile our news media focuses on personalities, innuendo, open fights, name calling and other antics. Why? It’s the fire on the prairie, the war in the mountains. It’s what produces clicks and views and it’s what keeps the perfumed princes of media in their chairs, and in five thousand dollar suits and one thousand dollar shoes. The country needs new thinking, new ideas and new action to bring in the new economy that is out there, coming into the world, whether the czars in Washington and New York and Hollywood, and Silicon Valley want it. We need a government that protects our constitutional rights and secures our defense, and does little else. We need policies that free the individual, provide economic opportunity for everyone, and gets out of our way. Is this represented in the political mess that is the ‘primary election cycle 2016’? Sponsored by Pride of Homes and X Government Cars.
Final Polls Before Election. Election 2014 Coverage. As this podcast is posted, it is the early hours of Election Day 2014 in the United States. One third of the US Senate, all of the House of Representatives, scores of Governors and State Representatives and Senators across the country, are waiting to see what an unpredictable electorate will decide. These races are very important to the lives of the people in these individual states, and to the people of the country as a whole. Politics is not Sports, but it is being covered as though it is. Politicians are presented as players. Speech writers, campaign managers, party officials and insiders as coaches, former politicians and pundits become willing participants in what is being described as the ‘pageant’ of American politics. Viewers and listeners become invested in which ‘team’ wins or loses, and so emotionally identify with a ‘side’, as though that reflects the true nature of politics. The relationship between voters and their representatives is complex and runs deep. Since cable television news channels decided to give up reporting the news, and copied talk radio’s format, television now pushes people to the right or left paradigm in order to keep them watching. Although political polling was a factor in election coverage before 2010, controversy over Obama Care spurred the Tea Party Movement, and carried Republicans to a majority in the House of Representatives. In 2012 the polls indicated a slight advantage for Republican candidate Mitt Romney, and the Republican establishment felt it was entitled to the presidency. Only a few people said the polls were too close (Editor’s Note: I was one of them), but they were ignored in the headlong confirmation between Republicans that they would ‘win’. Moral of the story? Polls can be wrong. Really wrong. And here we are again, in November of 2014, with the election ‘moneyballers’ applying sports statistical analysis to something as widely variable and unreliable as political polling, and not just political polling but, polling in individual states. Added to this, media executives, producers, program directors and editors pushing their writers, broadcasters and guests to conclude, predict and provoke the audience, just as long as they watch another twenty four hours. And then there is the relentless onrush of negative mailers, attack ads, flaps and gaffes that go viral through social media and become ‘news stories. In this podcast, we’ll run down the polls one more time and make no predictions. At the end of this special edition election update from The Bob Davis Podcasts you’ll know how the polls stand in the so called ‘battleground’ states, and you’ll be able to come to your own conclusions about whether the predictions are outlandish or not. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul, and by Depotstar.
One Week To Go. Election 2014 Update. On Wednesday morning November 5th, 2014, we will know most of the outcomes for US House of Representatives, and Gubernatorial races. We may not know the full result of the vote for US Senate. Close elections in runoff states mean that we may not know which party will control the US Senate until late on January 6th. Which races are close, which can be called now? In this podcast we’ll go through the close races, the races that will determine whether Republicans take control of the Senate, or Democrats retain a majority. There is, however, one key point about the ongoing Ebola debacle that needs to be addressed. The President spoke recently, attempting to pooh pooh the idea of establishing quarantines for returning ‘health workers’. The idea is, putting ‘health workers’ who are trying to help stop Ebola in Africa, will cause them to think twice before ‘volunteering’. Problem is, President Obama lifted his language directly from a New England Journal of Medicine article, written by Doctors. What’s going on here? First, ‘Health Workers’, are in fact Doctors and Nurses, who want special treatment. While we celebrate their interest in helping in Africa, we also celebrate our own Military Personnel who serve, and are being quarantined (including their officers, all the way to General) upon their return to base in Italy. Why do Doctors and Nurses expect to be treated as special citizens, when one of their own recently returned from West Africa to New York, with Ebola, to take a ride in an Uber Car, go Bowling, and ride the subway? Moreover, doctors and the President say science says a person with Ebola who is asymptomatic is not contagious, but in fact science is inconclusive on this subject. As far as election 2014 is concerned, baseless speculative reporting continues. Suddenly West Virginia is ‘going republican’, why? Maybe it has something to with Obama saying he wanted to put ‘coal out of business’? Oh no, it couldn’t be that, it must be that Hillbillies are racists and hate women. (Editor’s note: This is why I hate the ‘media’). Bloomberg’s Jonathon Bernstein says the media’s problem is there aren’t very many good reporters in states with close races, and he might be right. We know very little about key US House races. Minority leader Nancy Pelosi is reportedly bracing for deep losses for her party. As to the polls, CNN says ‘voters are angry’ (really?). Another poll says Latinos are ‘surprisingly’ OK with a Republican led Senate. Conventional wisdom is the enemy of objective analysis. Hispanic’s political views are becoming increasingly difficult to predict as this is not a monolithic group the media can latch onto, but they try. They sure do try. The polls show tough, close races in Colorado, Iowa, North Carolina, Georgia, Kansas, Alaska, New Hampshire, Kentucky, Louisiana, with some movement in Arkansas. Still, small sample sizes, and electronic interviewing make these polls highly questionable. Run offs in North Carolina, Georgia and Louisiana (where there are multiple candidates) if the winner does not achieve at least 50 percent of the vote, mean there could be US Senate races in 3 states, we will not know the outcome of until after the runoffs. No one can say what will happen…the polls are just too close. Republicans could have a phenomenal night, a good night, or be disappointed, yet still win seats in the House and Senate. Democrats could retain control of the Senate, but lose seats in the house, or suffer heavy losses. It comes down to getting the vote out on election day (even with early voting). Sponsored by XGovernmentcars.
2014 Election Update. Political Red Meat. The 2014 Election will be a republican wave? Whoa! Hold on there, big shooter! It’s time to go through the toss up states one by one and take a look at what the polls say, how they are averaging and why predictions of a wave election for republicans may not just be off base, but way off base. Part of the problem is media company’s like NBC, which apparently is unable to discern the difference between a satirist and a newsman, between entertainment and information programming. No wonder people watching can’t tell the difference anymore. The other part of the problem is the habit of projecting polling data as actual votes. They are vastly different. Thus, someone is finally going to tell you why predicting republican – or democrat – victories with close races in places like Louisiana, Kansas, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, and yes even Iowa, is nothing more than setting a story line that makes republicans feel good and keeps them watching. They’ve even taken to suggesting Minnesota’s senate race could tighten up because businessman Mike McFadden is such a ‘good candidate’. Really? None of this means a Republican wave can’t or won’t happen, but predicting such a thing is really bad reporting. Another reason we are deeply ill served by our so called ‘news media’ these days, which has become a caricature of what it once was at best, and a gross cartoon at worst. The danger for Republicans is they will do what they always do, tell pollsters they are going to throw the bums out, that they’ll vote in a show of anger toward the bum-in-chief, and then since Fox News is telling them the GOP is on a roll stay home and get comfortable in the chair to watch the election results. God forbid anyone would actually go out and make sure a candidate wins, that’s for someone else. The danger for Democrats is that they will be so demoralized, they won’t vote (not betting on that, though). Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul, and by Depotstar.
Bonfire at the Broadcast Bunker. On what may be one of the last great nights of the early fall/late summer season in the upper midwest, a back yard bonfire produces some reflection on this year’s election (not exactly inspiring), constant media predictions about its outcome (which are probably wrong) and the increasing desire to just vote and get it over with. A little bit of insight on where content for podcasts comes from. It would be easy to just pull some news stories and talk about them. The good stuff comes from what you pull from deep down. What does one do when there is no inspiration? Go to Yoga, have dinner with friends, light a late night bonfire by the bunker and turn on the microphones! A rant about restaurants that have TV monitors everywhere, the constant ‘push’ of the media filling ‘the news beast’ with updates, which really don’t mean anything, and why this podcaster will continue to scan, print and read to stay on top of developments. And, what about the 2014 election cycle. We have heard many predictions about its ‘probable’ outcome, from a ‘Republican Wave’, to the Democrats holding the Senate and gaining seats in the House. Are any of these predictions close to being correct? What will the ‘big story’ be on election night? What constitutes a ‘republican wave’, a loss or a win for democrats? How will a republican controlled Senate play in Season 6 and 7 of ‘Obama!, the series? How reliable are polls? Are they in any way useful in giving us any idea of what everyday Americans are thinking and feeling? Or, have people checked out of this one already? (Two misstatements in this podcast. First; Republicans don’t have to win 6 races, they have to pick up 6 seats to gain control of the Senate. Second, Republicans aren’t retaining control of the Senate. The Democratic Party currently holds a majority in the US Senate.) Sponsored by X Government Cars.