Podcast 389

Black Swans. What is a Black Swan Event? By definition, its not necessarily predictable, but we try in this podcast. We’re at the end of an era in the United States. You could say the same about the west in general, and maybe the rest of the world. While things seem on a relatively predictable path in the present time frame one thing we can all be sure of; Something will happen. Things will change. Perhaps significantly. What then is the event that introduces the pivot point that changes politics, society and history? We can only speculate. A financial crisis in China that leads to chaos. Disruption in the Euro Zone triggered by Greece that upsets the balance of power and destabilizes the Balkans. A nuclear weapon in the hands of ISIS. An EMP attack that turns our our technological wonders into junk. Disease. Earthquakes. Comet strikes. Aliens landing. Pick your poison. Or, Black Swan Events that end up being really good. The discovery of a stable anti or reverse aging drug. A way to increase intelligence in human beings. Manageable Machine Intelligence. A breakthrough in agriculture or energy that provides a stable source of food and power. The development of anti-gravity capabilities to lift huge payloads into space, revolutionizing space travel. A really good powdered milk! (JK). The key with these events isn’t necessarily predicting the event itself; It’s being prepared for, and predicting the reaction of mere mortals to the event. It wasn’t the stock market crash of 1929 that caused the depression, it was the government’s lame brained reaction to it. It wasn’t the assassination of Arch Duke Ferdinand that caused World War I, it was the secret pacts and misunderstood capabilities, coupled with irreversible mobilizations that caused World War I. And so on. It’s fun to speculate on the future. Sponsored by X Government Cars. 

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Podcast 321

Updating The Big Stories. Live from the wood stove at the broadcast bunker. On the heels of Podcast 320, concentrating on the Islamic State issue in US foreign policy, some updates on this and other stories. Jeb Bush gives a major foreign policy speech in Chicago, with little more than rhetoric featured except for the announcement that a number of old Reagan and Bush 1 and 2 hands will be assisting ‘The Future President’, Jeb Bush. Is old Cold War and Neo Conservative/Interventionist policy what the United States needs? Or do we need something a little more updated? For Bush this is the safe (and smart) bet for Republicans, but he still did not map out a plan. Meanwhile in Brownsville, Texas a District Court judge has put a hold on President Obama’s plans to ‘reform’ immigration with executive orders. Some people think the lower court ruling is the Supreme Court. The suit was brought by a score of states that claim they are irreparably harmed by the President’s orders, and the President plans to appeal. Some believe the White House has a better chance in higher courts. Others believe this will go all the way to the Supreme Court. In the meantime, chances are the ruling will hold while the states continue with their suit. The scolds are at it again, this time saying the technology revolution had produced no productivity change. Scolds say the tech comparison to the invention of the Light Bulb, or the automobile and their impact on society is poppycock. Why is it Scolds always cite Facebook and Hacking, or the NSA and Ed Snowden as examples of ‘tech’ when they want to suggest ‘tech’ hasn’t really amounted to much? It depends on how you measure productivity, and what years you compare. Moreover, the technology revolution is just getting started. The smart phone is really only a few years old. Flexibility offered in almost every industry with IT has changed how we do business, where we do business, and where workers are when they work. Still greater developments are only starting to be researched. For example, drug companies and silicon valley are teaming up to research reverse aging. If people can live substantially longer lives, without aging, or reverse aging, that will probably have a pretty big impact on how productive our economy is. Would you volunteer to take a trip to Mars? Before you respond, there’s one catch. It’s a one way trip. 100 people have already volunteered for the Mars 1 mission, 24 will be chosen. They will spend the rest of their lives on the angry red planet. If you have issues with so called millennials, you might want to hear what some of the volunteers – in their twenties – said about why they want to take a trip, from which they will never return. Their commitment to the bigger picture is sobering. Sponsored by X Government Cars. 

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