Truth About 2018 US Senate Predictions-Fairy Tales-Podcast 712

They are at it again. Pundits and talking heads are telling us who’s going to win the 2018 mid term elections. What is the truth about 2018? Find out in Truth About 2018 US Senate Predictions-Fairy Tales-Podcast 712.

Election Day Tuesday November 6th 2018

Tuesday, November 6th, 2018 is a big day. Up for election is the entire US House of Representatives and one third of the US Senate. Governors and state legislators are also up for election on this day.

It Comes Down To Key Races For Republicans and Democrats

This podcast focuses on the US Senate race in 2018. Specifically on several key races that may decide the majority. This is critical for President Trump’s agenda from 2019 and his reelection effort in 2020. Learn the basic contours of these races in Truth About 2018 US Senate Predictions-Fairy Tales-Podcast 712.

The Media IS Doing It Again

Problem is the media has already decided the outcome of this election. It will be democrat wave, they say. The reason? Big national issues favor the democrats. Gun Control. The Me Too movement. Immigration. Trade Protection. Is this true?

These days it seems like when the media says something is going to go one way, it often goes another. I will not tell you what’s going to happen. The Bob Davis Podcasts isn’t in the business of predicting the future, telling people what to think or who to vote for. As in 2016, I’ll try to stick to the facts we know about these races and let you decide what to think about them.

Battleground Senate Races

This podcast focuses on US Senate races in key states considered ‘battlegrounds’. Truth is, republicans are defending fewer vulnerable seats than democratic candidates. Whether than means the GOP will hold onto their majority in the US Senate is quite another question.

All Politics Is Local – Especially Statewide Senate Races

Moreover, Senate races may be effected by national issues, but they are statewide races. Personality and local issues are major factors in such elections. I spend a little time in this podcast outlining examples of regional and geographic political differences. Check it out in Truth About 2018 US Senate Predictions-Fairy Tales-Podcast 712.

Time for Truth about 2018 US Senate Predictions in Podcast 712

In conclusion, despite what the pundits and so called experts tell you, national issues that seem to benefit republicans or democrats, don’t always benefit candidates in tight races in their home states.

Sponsored by Reliafund Payment Processors and Ryan Plumbing and Heating Of Saint Paul

Truth About 2018 US Senate Predictions-Fairy Tales-Podcast 712

 

 

 

Travel Stories-Regional Differences Across America-2018 Primer-Podcast 703

These days the we see the US from a bird’s eye view. Americans eat the same kind of food. Listen to the same kind of music. Dress the same. Look the same. Right? Not really. Find out why in Travel Stories-Regional Differences Across America-2018 Primer-Podcast 703.

Media Says We’re One People

One people, one culture. That’s what they say on TV. Furthermore, news ratings depend on selling the myth that we’re all the same. We’re supposed to be nine or eleven ‘nations’ of North America. Or as ‘The Fourth Turning’ says, behavior can be predicted by our generation, or where we are from.

Except that isn’t true. Never has been.

Travel Teaches How Real Differences Work

I’ve been up and down both coasts. Crisscrossed the midwest. Toured the west from the Mile High City to Las Cruces. I’ve been up and down Skyline Drive and the birthplace of country music in Bristol. I can tell you from experience there are some real differences in Americans. It’s what makes this country great. In Travel Stories-Regional Differences Across America-2018 Primer-Podcast 703.

Big Assed States

First of all, these fifty states are geographically imposing. Even the so called ‘little’ states in New England are big. Each of them have regional differences that can play out politically in some significant ways.

Different Places Different People

Moreover the personality of these states depends on the settlers. When did they come? Who were they? Why did they come? Where did they come from. What ideas and culture did they bring with them?

Regional Differences

One of the things I hear a lot these days is, “Why can’t they get it done?”. Or, why is a state so ‘liberal’ or ‘conservative’. Look closer and you might be surprised. Whatever ‘IT’ is. Part of the reason are the regional differences that might surprise you. Find out about them in Travel Stories-Regional Differences Across America-2018 Primer-Podcast 703.

Northern Minnesota Democrats who support 2nd Amendment rights. Conservative residents of Mountain West states like Colorado that supported legalizing marijuana. West Virginia republicans who want trade protection and aid for coal mines.

These differences are especially relevant when it comes to congressional districts.

All Politics Really Is Local

In conclusion, 2018 is an election year. All of congress. One third of the senate. State Legislatures and Governors. Judges and special elections. The pundits, the media, and the parties will try to make it about national issues. More often though, when it comes to so called off-year cycles, all politics is local.

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating and Ciro3D motorcycle products and accessories

Travel Stories-Regional Differences Across America-2018 Primer-Podcast 703

Comedy Is A Funny Business-Joleen Lunzer-Podcast 686

On any given weekend in this country local comedy clubs are full. Comedy TV shows and tours are big business. Breaking in to the comedy business, though, is no joke. Find out why in Comedy Is A Funny Business-Joleen Lunzer-Podcast 686.

Doing What You Love Is The Hardest Thing

Moreover, one of the themes of the Bob Davis Podcasts is following your passion. Sometimes doing what you love is the hardest thing. When it comes to the entertainment business, stand up comedy has to be one of the most difficult pursuits to succeed in.

Comedy Is Big Business

Sure. We all know the stars of comedy. Especially relevant is the fact that there are many comedians in the business enjoying success and working their way up. My friend Joleen Lunzer is one of them. Writer. Podcaster. Blogger. Stand Up. Meet her in Comedy Is A Funny Business-Joleen Lunzer-Podcast 686.

Grounded in Saint Paul

Now living in Los Angeles, Joleen has barnstormed across the world and has been a resident stand up in Minneapolis and Saint Paul, Phoenix and Las Vegas. While there are many in the business with an LA or New York orientation, Lunzer’s roots in Saint Paul and the midwest keep her grounded when it comes to what’s funny.

Politics In Comedy

These days doing stand up can be a political minefield. How do you play to an audience full of people from different political tribes and still have a good time? We talk about it in Comedy Is A Funny Business-Joleen Lunzer-Podcast 686.

Still A Minnesota Wild Fan

Finally, following your passion can be a challenge. There are some good nuts and bolts lessons for future writers, podcasters and comedians in this podcast. The main takeaway? Maintaining your roots, especially if you’re from the midwest, can help you through the hard parts. By the way, Joleen is still a Minnesota Wild fan.

Sponsored by Brush Studio West End Saint Louis Park

Comedy Is A Funny Business-Joleen Lunzer-Podcast 686

Podcast 583-Summer Storm

Podcast 583-Summer Storm. Nothing better than a summer storm to help you forget the bitter cold. It’s well below zero in Minnesota. While Europe and parts of the South consider mid twenties to thirties ‘bitter’ cold, in the Upper Midwest we’re talking minus twenty, thirty or even forty below. This is the kind of cold you don’t need windchill to exaggerate. If you’re in the deep freeze this podcast is designed to provide a half an hour or so of relief.

Last summer I had a chance to record a huge summer storm that rolled through the area. The storm track on this podcast isn’t edited. It was recorded in real time, complete with bouts of heavy rain and thunder. Interspersed throughout the storm are some thought starters to help subscribers to the Bob Davis Podcasts mentally escape.

Maybe when you were a kid your family did a road trip to Florida. Or while in college you and your friends took a trip through the mountains, or the desert. Many have had one of those summer college jobs for some agricultural company that required rolling around on back roads across Iowa and North Dakota, recording the growth of corn, or whatever those companies require people to write down on clipboards.

For me, sitting in a broken down old ’67 Ford Galaxy in the fields and watching the storms roll in across the prairie in Rural Illinois, will always remind me of deep summer. It’s easy for people to say, “Why don’t you get on a plane and go to LA, or Hawaii”. Yes, it sure would be nice. Thing is, not all of us can do that.

As we head into the deep freeze, keep this podcast handy. Put on your headphones for Podcast 583-Summer Storm and prepare to be transported to my porch during an awesome summer storm. Of course, you’ll have to put up with me talking in your ear about places I’ve been and places to go, but it’s better than looking out the window wishing it wasn’t twenty five below.

It is true we welcome the cold weather, at least the first blush and especially at Christmas Time. Trust me, though. You’re going to want to escape. If you can’t get away as soon as you’d like to or at all this year, Podcast 583-Summer Storm is your ticket to paradise. Summer in the Midwest. Storms. Thunder. Steady Rain. The hum of summer insects. Thoughts of rolling down two lane roads cutting through green fields. Freedom is a clean windshield and a full tank of gas.

Sponsored By Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul and Hydrus Performance.

Podcast 573-Fake News

Podcast 573-Fake News. Suddenly everyone is upset about ‘Fake News’. In Podcast 573-Fake News, Fake news and propaganda sites are the latest demon to have spawned the election of Donald J. Trump as President of the United States. Well. President-elect. After years of the right blaming ‘the media’ for everything wrong in society, the poles have shifted. Now democrats are blaming their beloved media for electing the antichrist. If it weren’t for all those propaganda sites from Eastern Europe and Russia spewing anti Clinton poison our country would not now be plunged into a cesspool of populism, racism, woman-hating, republicanism. Sigh. Fake News? It’s all fake. It’s all fantasy and it has been for some time. Broadcasters in radio and television, cable news channels and big money backed ‘news’ websites are obsessed with social media and user driven sites like You Tube. Every waking hour for a broadcast executive is spent quaking in fear over the question of relevance. Content is driven by FaceBook and You Tube, Twitter and SnapChat. Historic election? Not bloody likely. No one knows yet because we still have to sift through the voting data. Women putting Trump in office? Isn’t your vote supposed to be anonymous? How do they know? A review of the outcome in a few of the battleground states reveals the one fact we know. In key states the republican vote turn out was better than the democrat vote turn out. If democrats had voted to the margins for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, Hillary Clinton would be the president-elect right now and we’d be listening to the right whine about the media and demand something be done. What is News? Far from a recitation of the events of the day or new information on a particular subject, ‘News’ has become a roundtable discussion with people who don’t have a clue what’s going on because they sit in air conditioned studios in New York, or a gossip fest between washed up TV stars and entertainment figures, or shouting back and forth at each other through cameras on both coasts. News? People don’t want news. They want to be reassured. They’re pretty. They’re strong. Their guy is gonna win. All is well with the world. News? Here’s something you already know, packaged differently and stated firmly. Passing a law to regulate news outlets? Check the first Amendment. No. What’s the antidote. Turn. It. Off. Read. Be a good citizen, Become the warrior you are. Protect your own media battle space: Your mind. Refuse to accept the storyline they want to upload to your hard drive and create your own story line. There’s a reason for the Trump victory in this election, and it’s not fake news websites. It’s a simple fact that more people voted for Trump in key states than Clinton. They had their reasons. Personally, I am sick and tired of being told what to do, and what to think by thieves in Washington DC who will increase their power and the size of the government whether there is an R or a D in front of their name. Sponsored by X Government Cars.

Podcast 570-Election 2016 Results

Podcast 570-Election 2016 Results. Comprehensive analysis and minute by minute vote totals for Election 2016. How do podcasters cover presidential elections in real time without being live on the air, and without streaming? Podcast 570-Election 2016 Results shows you how. Follow along as I experience the election in real time on November 8th, 2016. The world seems surprised at news that Donald J. Trump has won the presidential election in The United States. Podcast 570 and Podcast 569 are meant to be listened to as companion podcasts. Since I did not endorse either candidate, I was able to provide objective analysis and experience the race objectively. Podcast 569 broke down the final poll data for the state by state races, avoiding any analysis of the national presidential preference polls. This minimized the surprise for anyone subscribing to the Bob Davis Podcasts, because you already knew no one could comfortably call this race. That did not stop the charlatans in talk radio, cable news and on line from attaching probabilities, or calling the race for one or the other. Not only was this race surprising overall, it was surprising on the state by state level. For the most part though, the state by state polls were either close to the totals in some cases, or within the margin of error. The US election is a state by state election, with the electoral college actually choosing the president on or about the 15th of December. In this hour plus long podcast I’m joined by friends, and family on the phone as well as a late night visit from local Minnesota Politico and web developer Mitch Rossow. At the close of this podcast we’re still waiting for Michigan and Minnesota returns to come in. I’ll have to update those on the next podcast. With Republicans retaining the Senate and the House majorities, and now winning the Presidency, now it is a question of the way forward. We’ll be talking about these issues and more on future podcasts. Pundits like to say the country is divided. What they might say is we can now agree on one thing. The worst election in recent memory is now, mercifully, over. And, tomorrow is another day, after all. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating and X Government Cars.

Podcast 569-Final State by State Round Up

Podcast 569-Final State by State Round Up. Where the state polls stand for presidential candidates right before election day 2016. This podcast does not endorse a candidate. I will not make you feel good or bad about your vote, or non vote. I will not attach ‘indexes’ and ‘percentage probabilities’ to potential wins or losses for the candidates. In Podcast 569-Final State by State Round Up, how candidates fare in each of the states according to existing polls. Partisan and advocacy journalists don’t provide insight on survey research. I do. What you’re getting from the cable news channels and advocacy news ‘websites’ are charlatans pushing their point of view. Fact is, no one knows how the election will play out in any of the so called battleground states. That’s because despite all the best effort, even the best political researchers are challenged to determine who is actually going to show up to vote especially when the polls show a close vote, within the margins of error. Elections are made on who votes. Not the number of signs. Not the number of people who show up at rallies. Not who ran the best TV spots. It’s all about getting the vote out. Once the vote is in, it’s all about counting. Is the election rigged? In a sense, yes. The United States is a representative republic which elects its executive not by the popular vote but through an institution known as the Electoral College. Some states’ electoral slates are proportionally chosen. Some states select electoral slates by party. The electors themselves have already been chosen. They will actually select the President of the United States on December 15th, 2016. In some states the popular vote determines how the electors are ‘supposed’ to vote. In some states it depends on which party’s candidate wins the overall vote. No so called ‘rogue elector‘ has ever been prosecuted for voting outside the state statute guidelines. In the event of an electoral tie, the election will be decided by the US House of Representatives. One thing is true, the republicans are the ones talking about ‘rigged’ elections right now, but if Donald Trump wins the presidency they’ll stop talking about that immediately and the democrats will start talking about things being ‘rigged’. The only thing coverage of these kinds of conspiracies do is reduce the faith Americans and the rest of the world has in the electoral process. In reality, ‘rigging’ a national election is a difficult task, despite what movies and conspiracy theorists say. If you are concerned about your candidate winning the election, the best thing you can do is turn off the TV and get out and help them win by driving people to the polls or making last minute calls, poll watching, or if you’re qualified, volunteering as an election judge. Thankfully we’ll be looking at election night results in the next podcast. Sponsored by Hydrus Performance and Brush Studio, in the West End, Saint Louis Park.

Podcast 566-BobDavisRadioShow-50

Podcast 566-BobDavisRadioShow-50. October final State By State Poll roundup. Podcast 566-BobDavisRadioShow-50 covers the hysteria around polling these days and what to watch for in the final two weeks of campaigning. Charlatans abound in the political world. Almost everyone telling you one candidate, or the other, is going to win has a hidden agenda. Some want to make themselves famous. Some are shilling for a candidate. Ignorance on what political research actually is has now commingled with Trump’s claims the polls and thus the election are rigged. My response to a subscriber email about push polls is typical. Someone, somewhere talked about push polls so now everyone thinks the polls are push polls. Or, the John Podesta email suggesting internal polling over same democrats has everyone convinced all the pollsters are in the tank for Clinton. Sigh. The polls used on Real Clear Politics, and the polls I use for Podcast 566-BobDavisRadioShow-50 are polls taken by media organizations or university political science departments. A push poll is a poll designed to ‘push’ a respondent into voting one way or another. Usually there is very little polling data collected in so called Push Polls. Are the polls right? A good poll isn’t right or wrong, it is reliable. Listen to this show and you’ll know more about polling than anyone on your block. Listen to the other podcasts about polling I have done and you’ll understand more about what is going on. First, it is not a popular vote that elects the President of the United States. The US Election is an electoral affair so all the action is in the state by state polls. You can aggregate these polls. You can average these polls. However, you cannot aggregate and average them and place a probability on whether one or the other candidate will win. All the poll averaging does is give you a birds eye view of the battlefield. The must win electoral states change election cycle to election cycle. No predictions will be made here. I will give you a truthful and honest analysis of where the mainline campaigns stand on the eve of election day, 2016. Sponsored by Hydrus Performance, Ryan Plumbing and X Government Cars.

Podcast 565-Lost Desert Civilization?

Podcast 565-Lost Desert Civilization? Adventure and Travel in Arizona at Casa Grande On The Road in at the Casa Grande ruins in the Sonoran Desert, in Southeastern Arizona. From the first century AD, to the mid 1400’s a people flourished in the Sonoran Desert. In Podcast 565-Lost Desert Civilization? I toured Casa Grande. Descendants of the Huhugham (translated incorrectly as the Hohokam because Huhugham is pronounced Ho Ho KAHM) are represented in many of the Native American tribes of this region. They were hunter gatherers who mastered irrigation from the Salt and Gila rivers. Their villages extended all along those river valleys and into this desert. You often hear from Europeans that there are no ruins in America as old as those in Europe. Of course the ruins in Greece and Italy and across Europe are amazing. America, though, does have ruins dating to a different culture and different people, much older than the United States itself. Some academics believe there were hundreds of thousands of people in this desert. They lived in villages stretching from what is now Southeastern Arizona to California, down into what is today Mexico. These villages flourished for many centuries before the 1400’s producing sophisticated art and trading as far west as today’s California and as far south as today’s Mexico. Think mastering irrigation is no major feat? Today, when you drive through this part of Arizona, all kinds of crops are cultivated year round because of irrigation. What makes the story of the Hohokam so interesting is their dispersal, which archeologists believe began sometime around 1450. What caused these people to break up and leave the area? Was it an overly rainy season? Wars? Disease and perhaps famine as the result of an oscillating climate? What makes Casa Grande so important and unique? Or, did they become victims of their own success, with too many people to support for even their advanced agriculture of the time? It makes me wonder what people will say about us someday. We think we are different but how many know that once there was a people who probably believed they were pretty advanced, and in the course of half a century or so, it all came crashing down. While we argue about something as petty as who said what about whom in these final days before election 2016, the message of Casa Grande might be one we should hear. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and X Governmentcars.com.

Podcast 564-Trying Not To Talk Politics

Podcast 564-Trying Not To Talk Politics. Live from the Desert in Scottsdale, Arizona in Podcast 564-Trying Not To Talk Politics. After two intense political podcasts, time for an easy talker to start your week out. The real challenge of what I call an ‘easy talker’ is not to talk about the easy stuff, which or me is usually political. This time though, I got into some great content about travel. I feel a motivation to travel and have an increasing desire to cut the tether completely and roll. For good. What would I need to make that happen? About midway through the trip across the Great Northwest, now into the Great Southwest, a sense of well being and relaxation has set in. It’s great to visit friends and family all over the country living their lives, caught up with various pursuit. No matter what you see in the media about the tone of the country life goes on. There’s something reassuring about that reality. Coming through Eastern Los Angeles, into the California desert was a great contrast to a week of rain and wind on the coast. Joshua Tree National Forest is highly recommended. The desert itself is hypnotizing and I have the feeling the most dramatic part of the trip is ahead as we head east on two lane roads through Arizona to New Mexico and then Texas. From the plains of North Dakota to the mountains of Montana, Utah and Washington State, on over to the pacific coastal highways, down through the redwoods to LA, and now headed east in the desert I want to live in so many places! I have always loved road trips and you would think I would get them out of my system, but after a few days in Arizona, I feel like I am starting out the trip all over again. The longer the trip, the better as far as I am concerned. Sponsored by Brush Studio in the West End, Saint Louis Park, Minnesota.