Live-From-The-Wilderness-Bob Davis Podcast 949

Live From The Political Wilderness!

These days the only way to see things clearly is stand back. Way back. I live in the high country. The wilderness. Learn more in Live-From-The-Wilderness-Bob Davis Podcast 949.

Been Here For Years

Firstly I’ve been here in the wilderness for years.

Best Approach For Listeners and Subscribers

Secondly I think the wilderness has turned out to be best thing for subscribers and listeners of this podcast.

Political Realignment

Because of my vantage point I see a big political realignment coming and I don’t have a dog in that race.

Trapped In The Roach Motel Of Politics

Even more those still trapped in the republican or democrat world might seriously think about the so called wilderness as a destination.

How The Party System Changes

Above all this podcast defines the party system and explains what realignment might mean.

Not Hearing What I Need To Hear

I have certainly said I am not hearing what I need to hear from the mainline political parties.

Land Of Political Confusion

During the time I have been in the high country the political confusion has only increased.

Nothing Seems To Make Sense

Likewise for many nothing seems to make sense anymore.

Hope For The Future

On the other hand there is a hopeful reason for this confusion. That’s what I want to talk about in Live-From-The-Wilderness-Bob Davis Podcast 949.

Forging A New Party System

To clarify I think the winner, or loser of the 2020 election may forge a new party system in the United States.

It’s As American As…

That is to say the political make up of the two main parties is about to change significantly. This has happened in the same vein in America several times since the 1790’s.

Partisan Commentators That Attack Their Standard Bearers Are Still Partisan

Finally I take some shots at commentators on one side the current divide as well as protesters on the other.

Our Political System Has To Change

To sum up it’s clear our political system has to change. We’re not addressing new technologies and the changes it brings. There’s been no real discussion of our approach to the rest of the world and our real economic problems or opportunities in this political season.

Something To Think About

In conclusion part of the mission of these podcasts is to give listeners and subscribers something to think about rather than to push you down a path.

Your Vote Is Your Business

I’ve always thought what you fight for and how you vote is your business and your business alone.

Sponsored by AuntieBRentals and Reality One Group Choice and by Nathan W. Nelson Strategic Business Attorney at Virtus Law

Live-From-The-Wilderness-Bob Davis Podcast 949

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Landslide-Mania-Updating-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 936

Mania For Biden Landslide

Above all as you know political polls don’t have a set schedule for release. With all the mania for a Biden Landslide lately plus the release of new polls it is time again to update my most recent podcast on polls in battleground states. We do it in Landslide-Mania-Updating-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 936.

Updates When Conditions Change

Firstly when you do a podcast based on current events you have to be prepared for updates when conditions change.

New Polls

Second a new spate of new polls of key states was released recently and they’re not good for the president.

Biden Leading In Some Battlegrounds

I think most importantly for the President, Joe Biden is taking the lead.

Parsing Key Polls

Therefore I will go through the key polls in the key states.

Arizona, Texas, North Carolina and Florida

Especially relevant is how the ground might be changing in Arizona, North Carolina, Texas and especially Florida.

Never Predict Outcomes

Certainly my approach is not to attach myself to outcomes or process. In the same vein it really bothers me to see commentators predicting certain outcomes.

Four Months Is A Long Time

In addition these polls show movement over time. Further we don’t know what might happen to benefit either candidate in the next four months. Think of how many things changed since the pandemic began just a short while ago.

Trump Running Uphill

But it is fair to say these polls strongly suggest President Trump is facing uphill battles in key electoral states.

Stringing Together Lights In The Dark

Finally I don’t like doing two of these kinds of podcasts in a row. However it is necessary to drive home the point the political landscape as measured by modern polling is a moving target. That is the whole point of Podcast 935, and Landslide-Mania-Updating-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 936.

Landslide or Nail Biter. Take Your Pick

In conclusion I think predictions of a landslide for Biden are irresponsible.

Potentially False Hope For Democrats and Pollsters

Not only do they give potentially false hope for democrats. Likewise they create the impression the polls are infallible predictors.

We all know how that ended in 2016.

And of course if the ground shifts, I’ll call it as I see it.

Sponsored by AuntieBRentals and The Realty One Group

Landslide-Mania-Updating-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 936

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Art-Of-Politics-Polling-Prediction-Bob Davis Podcast 935

Updating Current Political Polls

Firstly Art-Of-Politics-Polling-Prediction-Bob Davis Podcast 935 is part of a series of podcasts updating current polls for 2020.

No Blanket Statements

Secondly I tend to avoid blanket statements when it comes to political polls.

Politics is An Art

Finally I believe despite all the technology we have politics is still an art.

No Silver Bullet For Predictions

Even more there is no application or spreadsheet that can ‘predict’ an outcome based on polls.

Probabilities

In short we can only look at probabilities.

Snapshots

Polls are snapshots in real time.

Shocking Confusion When It Comes To Polls

Meanwhile pundits and commentators continue to display a shocking confusion when it comes to understanding political polling.

Out and Out Bias

Most importantly some are ‘in the tank’ for one or the other candidate.

National Polls A Disservice To Supporters of Both Candidates

Consequently all of this political chatter and predictions does a disservice to supporters of all candidates.

Your Own Reality Check

On the other hand what if I can show you how to do your own reality check on your smart phone whenever you hear some wild prediction of a ‘landslide’ for either candidate.

That’s what Art-Of-Politics-Polling-Prediction-Bob Davis Podcast 935 is all about.

Still All About Showing Up

In conclusion if we have learned anything over the years, it is politics still belongs to those who show up.

State By State Battleground

Working hard down to the election is always the best approach. National polls are useless as the popular vote does not determine the presidency in the US.

Stay With The Bob Davis Podcasts

To sum up stay with me for a clear eyed view of the state by state polling results so that you’re not shocked and surprised on election night. Anything is possible, but right now it’s still a close race.

(Editor’s Note: As I recorded this podcast new polls were being released and results uploaded. As of the date of this post, the new polls have not changed my conclusion that 2020 will be close based on tight races in battleground states. I’ll do another podcast after the next spate of polls and we’ll see how things change. The good news is, if you listen to this podcast you’ll know how to update yourself when new polls come out.)

Sponsored by Virtus Law Strategic Business Specialists

Art-Of-Politics-Polling-Prediction-Bob Davis Podcast 935

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