Conventional Wisdom-Election 2018 Follies-Podcast 764

These days it always pays to wait for an outcome before you predict the future. With the confirmation of Brett Cavanaugh to the US Supreme Court we have an outcome. Now comes an avalanche of predictions about the court fight’s impact on the election. Find out why I say ignore the prognosticators in Conventional Wisdom-Election 2018 Follies-Podcast 764.

Bottom line, elections belong to the people who vote. Not tea leaves

Most noteworthy in 2018 are several US Senate Elections. Moreover scores of House elections are very close.

Blue Wave. Wait! Red Wave! No Wait! Blue Wave

What’s the media telling the American people? It’s a ‘blue’ wave fueled by young adults and women angry at the treatment of Christine Ford, nemesis of the former court nominee. Don’t like that story line? Guess what? Republican voters are seething and will go out and vote again democrats in droves. So say the story tellers.

Not Enough Data

In contrast to the nonsense being spewed by now famous political ‘scientists’ no one knows who’s actually going to vote. Polls are scanty and some shoddily conducted. Another factor is the fact that determining who will vote and why is truly an art. In other words, no one knows. It’s about time someone explains it’s hard to say what will happen on November 6th, without picking sides.

Quick! Who’s Your Congressman?

Truth is midterm voter turn out is lower than presidential years. Many people don’t even know who their congressman is. National issues don’t always drive elections. Almost all the House districts that aren’t gerrymandered are close. And somehow one national story is going to drive the results of all these elections? Are they toss ups that can go either way? Are these close races evidence of a blue wave? Find out in Conventional Wisdom-Election 2018 Follies-Podcast 764.

Coverage Of Politics In This Country is Terrible

In conclusion I am driven to do another political podcast I did not want to do. Why? Because most of what passes for political coverage in this country is terrible. Too many predictions. Lots of bias. Mostly telling both sides what they want to hear. Finally someone who tells it like it is and waits for election day to judge the outcome.

Sponsored by Water Butler Water Purification Systems and Johantgen Jewelers

Conventional Wisdom-Election 2018 Follies-Podcast 764

 

2018 Toss Up Elections-Final Thoughts-Podcast 758

The 2018 Midterm election season has been most noteworthy for its twists and turns. Now as we head into the final month of the campaigns, find out what to look for on election day in 2018 Toss Up Elections-Final Thoughts-Podcast 758.

Media Cherry Picks Stats

Then there’s the media’s habit of cherry picking statistics. They call it ‘political coverage’. Statistics prove the story line. Damn lies convince us none of this has ever happened before.

Predictions of Doom

The president’s approval rating has never been worse. Voters have never been more fired up. If things continue the way they are now, terrible outcomes are inevitable. The president’s political party always loses seats in a midterm. Are these predictions of doom true? Learn more in 2018 Toss Up Elections-Final Thoughts-Podcast 758.

Polls Don’t Lie. The Media Lies

Finally, in my experience making predictions about statewide and house elections based on national polls and baselines is problematic although some research suggests they may be reliable predictors in midterm elections. There just isn’t enough information to say one way or another what will happen. That’s why we wait and see what the vote actually turns out to be.

Labels and Beliefs

Meanwhile these days we’re awash in labels and broadly held beliefs in pure nonsense. So and so is a “transformational figure”. A “disaster” has changed voting in a district or state forever.

Be The Change

I believe it’s time to change how we cover politics and I am putting my podcasts where my mouth is in this series on the midterm election toss ups. A close look at the data. A fair shake for the candidates. Letting the listeners and subscribers decide for themselves. Putting all the data in the podcasts so you can compare on election night. That’s what it’s all about for The Bob Davis Podcasts for Election 2018 coverage.

In conclusion, through all of it, I have to say I have no idea what will happen on November 6th, 2018, and neither does anyone else.

That’s up to you.

Sponsored by Johantgen Jewelers and Reliafund Payment Processing

2018 Toss Up Elections-Final Thoughts-Podcast 758

 

 

 

 

2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752

Most people these days don’t dial into elections until after Labor Day. I’m doing a series of podcasts to get you updated on all the so called ‘toss up’ races. Learn more about the Governor’s races in 2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752.

Old Saws Predict Races?

Moreover pundits and statisticians are hell bent for leather to tell you who’s going to win every race. Most noteworthy are the ‘old saws’ of politics. Predictions based on truisms and sayings.

You’re Right Until You’re Wrong

Maybe these old ways of predicting outcomes combined with new data are right. My experience is, they’re right until they’re wrong. I’ll explain in 2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752.

Let The People Decide

Also I believe people should be able to make decisions about who they think is going to win, and who to vote for, without being told who’s going to win three months before election day. Wouldn’t you like to hear some information about this elections without someone telling you who’s going to win? That’s what I do in 2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752.

Local Or National?

For example we’re told that national issues are driving all the races in the 2018 Midterm Elections. Is this true? Or is it possible local issues may be central? In some states taxes and budgets. In others, mining vs environment and business versus agriculture.

States Are Bigger Than You Think

One thing I’ve learned traveling back and forth across this country on two lane roads is the individual states of these United States are very diverse and a lot larger than they look on a map. How does this fact impact the race? Find out in 2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752.

Too Close To Call? Check Again

Finally how many of these races are actually ‘toss ups’. How many contests between gubernatorial candidates really are too close to call? You might be surprised at the answer.

Red or Blue May Not Be

In conclusion the experts say the number of states under partisan party control is important. States are either ‘blue’ or ‘red’. Are all republicans and democrats created equal? Or is the truth somewhere in the middle?

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752

Political Dealignment-Culture Shock-Bob-Davis-Podcast-750

I find it harder these days to make sense of politics. We’ll talk about it in Political Dealignment-Culture Shock-Bob-Davis-Podcast-750.

Role Of Podcasting

Moreover it’s time to talk about the unique role of podcasting in sorting out the noise. Especially since our day to day news coverage has become a reality TV drama. A minstrel through the lens of Cable TV News and Social Media.

News Is A Reality Show

What will it be this week? A reveal in court that has to be walked back? A trade deal touted as the greatest thing ever that closer examination turns out to be just ok? An economy that is the ‘best ever‘? Diplomacy and policy discussion conducted via twitter?

Sorting Out The Noise

Especially relevant to me is the role of podcasting in this political realignment. How do podcasters help listeners navigate these times? More opinion disguised as news? Or worse, opinion disguised as ‘truth‘.

Let Politicians Defend Themselves

Most noteworthy is the idea that the ‘little people‘ need media to defend and interpret everything politicians say and do, when those politicians should be able to defend themselves. Find out more in Political Dealignment-Culture Shock-Bob-Davis-Podcast-750.

Tuning Out

Finally I am beginning to get the impression people are turning away and tuning out the noise anyway. Should podcasters rush to cover stories in depth that will be forgotten in twenty four hours?

Mean Discourse

I spent a weekend delving into the last one hundred years of history for Podcast 749. Our country and the world has changed so much over the last century. We have exchanged the industrial revolution for a technical revolution. Technology has made our discourse meaner.

An Invisible America

There is an America where people share their passions and help each other out regardless of their political opinions. That America just isn’t always visible on social media and definitely not visible in news coverage of every breath taken in Washington DC.

Maybe that’s the problem.

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul, Reliafund Payment Processors and John D Scott Personal Injury Lawyer

Political Dealignment-Culture Shock-Bob-Davis-Podcast-750

Trump-Russia-Comments-Media Firestorm-Bob Davis Podcast 739

President Trump’s comments with Russian President Putin in Helsinki this week kicked off a media firestorm. With stories like this it’s hard to tell which end is up, these days. We’ll talk about it in Trump-Russia-Comments-Media Firestorm-Bob Davis Podcast 739.

A Disaster For The White House

Everything was going “so well” until the President went to Helsinki, Finland to talk to Russian President Putin.

Most noteworthy were comments from Trump that contradicted US intelligence assessments saying Russia interfered in the 2016 election.

Treason?

Were Trump’s comments a mistake or intentional?

Do they constitute ‘treason’? Really?

When You Have To Say Something…

As a podcaster I do not envy people who have to be on the air everyday and react to these kinds of breaking stories. When a president as unpredictable as this one makes news with every tweet and comment what does one say?

When Press Conferences Go Bad

It’s especially relevant to note the Trump-Putin summit did not result in any signed agreements. There was a cordial discussion. It was the joint press conference that kicked off a media rampage of truly biblical proportion in the US. It certainly didn’t help that Trump was unprepared, and proud of it.

We’ll break it down in Trump-Russia-Comments-Media Firestorm-Bob Davis Podcast 739.

Telling Us What To Think

Moreover critics and supporters are busy telling all of us what to think and what will happen next. Either Trump’s a genius or a fool. He’s getting a second term or will be impeached. Academics write several hundred words supporting the so called ‘resistance’ or articulating the president’s policy for him.

Everyone On TV or Radio Is An Expert

Everything Trump does has ‘never been done before’. Former government officials are trotted out to tell us how this is the worst thing that has ever happened. Smarty Pants Professors tell us what Abe Lincoln or Woodrow Wilson would have done.

Now What?

In conclusion, are people really going to take to the streets because Trump upset the Mueller applecart in Helsinki? Is Trump in the process of destroying the Republican party? Are democrats doing the same thing on the left, by attacking everything the president does? Let’s talk about it.

(Editor’s Note: At the beginning of this podcast I say, “until Trump went to Russia”. Of course this is a joke. The president went to Helsinki, Finland for his bilateral meeting with Russian President Putin.)

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul and Reliafund Payment Processors

Trump-Russia-Comments-Media Firestorm-Bob Davis Podcast 739


 

 

Summer Without Air Conditioning-Reading More News-Midnight Walk Talk-Bob Davis Podcast 738

Some people turn off their air conditioning as some kind of statement. I just don’t like air conditioning and it doesn’t matter how hot it is. It’s perfectly still outside at midnight. Storms on the way. Time for a walk and talk podcast in Summer Without Air Conditioning-Reading More News-Midnight Walk Talk-Bob Davis Podcast 738.

Back To Reading

These days in my world I feel the need to start reading in depth again. During my talk radio days it wasn’t uncommon to read two to three hundred pages of information a day. Most noteworthy here is podcasting doesn’t require that level of prep. Unfortunately you lose the detail on key issues.

So it’s back to scanning, printing and reading. I feel like I am in summer school!

Two Big Stories

In Summer Without Air Conditioning-Reading More News-Midnight Walk Talk-Bob Davis Podcast 738 we’ll take a look at two big developing stories with an eye toward pointing out how story lines force us to anticipate outcomes rather than waiting until a story plays out.

Telling Us What’s Going To Happen Again

It has been a week since the president slapped tariffs on US trading partners. There has been no measurable economic effect to this date but that doesn’t stop commentators and reporters from telling us how Trump’s actions are already ‘having an economic effect’.

In addition the president’s comments on NATO are generating all kinds of talk. What’s going to happen? Why don’t we wait and see?

No Information Means Shouting Matches Not Conversations

Do you feel confident discussing trade and international defense agreements with strangers? Maybe it’s because you don’t have enough information.

Finally if we’re being fed a constant stream of speculation with no real information, is it any wonder our conversations about issues turn into shouting matches?

Join me on the walk and talk as the storms roll in and we’ll talk it out.

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul and Reliafund Payment Processors

Summer Without Air Conditioning-Reading More News-Midnight Walk Talk-Bob Davis Podcast 738

Gettysburg-Real Cost of Civil War-Bob Davis Podcast 735

These days commentators use sexy titles for their blogs, articles and on-air commentary. It needs to be said sometimes these guys go too far. Find out how in Gettysburg-Real Cost of Civil War-Bob Davis Podcast 735.

Use ‘Civil War’ In Your SEO Title

Civil War‘ is working its way back into the current American political discourse because it sells.

At least three so called pundits recently suggested there will be ‘another Civil War’ if democrats don’t ‘win’ the midterm elections this year.

Battle Of Gettysburg

So it is most noteworthy we remember a Fourth of July in 1863.

During those days in 1863 men who spoke the same language killed and maimed more than fifty thousand of their fellow citizens. Get the details in Gettysburg-Real Cost of Civil War-Bob Davis Podcast 735.

One Million Killed

Especially relevant; the bloodletting went on for two more years. Our real Civil War was a disaster for this country. It took one hundred years for the American South to begin to fully recover. We are still dealing with the aftermath of that war in this country. One million people were killed when we the whole country had a population of only 31 million. In terms of population our most costly war.

All because politicians couldn’t solve a problem.

War Is Not A Protest

War is not a protest. It is not an expression of outrage. A sit in. Blocking the highway. Civil War isn’t a bunch of people shouting someone out of a restaurant or refusing to bake a cake.

War Means Killing

War is a state of armed conflict. In war the most ruthless combatant eliminates his enemy’s will to fight. This is done by killing or maiming as many of the so called enemy as possible, and destroying the means of production. People and property do not do well in war. Worse in a civil war.

Civil War Is No Joke

Civil War is much more bloody than a conflict between sovereign state actors.

In short, civil war is no joke.

Outrage

It is an outrage for talk show hosts and pundits to suggest we in the United States are already in a state of Civil War. It’s folly that honest disagreements about policy and personalities are characterized in such a lazy and irresponsible manner.

Chaos Would Be The Norm

If we did have another civil war in America the cost would be enormous

Chaos would be the norm throughout the world.

In conclusion I can only ask those who like to say we’re ‘in a civil war’…

Is this the world you want to bequeath to your children?

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

Gettysburg-Real Cost of Civil War-Bob Davis Podcast 735

How Content In Bob Davis Podcasts Gives Greater Insight-Podcast 720

As the host of over 720 podcasts I have trouble remembering the insights I have stumbled across. In fact many of these podcasts remain relevant. We’ll talk about it in How Content In Bob Davis Podcasts Gives Greater Insight-Podcast 720.

Partisan Coverage Is Killing Us

The heavily partisan nature of media these days has been a theme in these podcasts. I spent some time on my own website the other day and what I found surprised me. Much of it was prescient or oddly predictive.

No Predictions

Now, I can’t stand political commentators that try to predict outcomes. I actually try to avoid predicting outcomes. Thing is, when a person travels thousands of miles on backroads across this country as I have, there’s a huge takeaway. I’ll tell you about it in How Content In Bob Davis Podcasts Gives Greater Insight-Podcast 720.

Content Content Content

Moreover I have been doing a number of tightly focused podcasts packed with content lately.

No One Trusts Traditional Media

Talk radio, cable television news, even new media these days, is focused on pushing a point of view. What’s more the national media, broadcast media, and mainstream media might be missing a big shift when it comes to voters.

When it comes to issues, my use of source material and research pays off for subscribers and listeners. In addition going to the story in Mobile Podcast Command has made a huge difference in broadening my perspective.

How To Find Information On My Website

Time for a podcast that details some of the older podcasts and explains how to use the search capability on my site to go back and find some stories you might not have heard.

From The Pipeline To The California Coast

From the pipeline protest to covering the 2016 primary races in Iowa, North Carolina and Florida. Or, reading the tax bill to breaking down all the toss up House and Senate races, I don’t tell you what to think or who to vote for. I give you the lay of the land and let you make your own judgements.

Not Just Politics

In conclusion there are many more insights that come from travel and detailed study that have nothing to do with politics and they are in these podcasts too. I’ve focused on the political stuff in this podcast for the junkies out there, but anyone can use the search window and other features to find podcasts about life in general. I find I like some of those the best.

Citizen Journalism

How does a citizen journalist or podcaster contribute in a hurricane of information? Find out in How Content In Bob Davis Podcasts Gives Greater Insight-Podcast 720.

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

How Content In Bob Davis Podcasts Gives Greater Insight-Podcast 720

 

 

Predicting Future-Divination-Story Lines-Prophecy-Warning-Podcast 701

First of all, it’s been a theme in my podcasts to discuss bad information spread by media. Most noteworthy are what the mainstream media likes to call ‘narratives’. Yet there is plenty of out and out nonsense in new media too. We’ll talk about it in Predicting Future-Divination-Story Lines-Prophecy-Warning-Podcast 701.

Are We Sane and Rational?

We like to think of ourselves as sane and rational in this country, but I am starting to wonder. Are we reversing in our progress, going back in time to become a more superstitious people?

Pseudo Science To The Rescue

People now use divination, prophecy and pseudo science to predict the future. These kinds of videos on You Tube have hundreds of thousands of views and thousands of subscribers. Moreover it’s becoming harder to argue You Tube videos have less credibility than mainstream outlets.

We Don’t Need Facts Anymore

It is especially relevant that rather than focusing on facts most of the mainstream news outlets focus on opinion to keep people watching. As a result we’re not using facts to make judgements about our world.

Anything Makes Sense When We Know Nothing

Hence, we might believe the US is about to attack North Korea. Why not accept story lines suggesting there is a planetary system hiding behind the sun and our government is keeping proof of its existence from us? Why wouldn’t we believe pseudo science stories about people who channel aliens?

Your Child Is A Genius

Because it’s easy to accept the idea that our children are geniuses and have evolved DNA and that a benevolent alien race is about to change the energy level on earth, allowing us to live disease free, and promoting love.

Welcome To A Tribal Way of Life

I think it might be easy to accept outrageous stories, when you’re fed opinion disguised as facts on the real stories? Are we well on our way to becoming a tribal rather than rational culture?

Self Reliant People Don’t Believe In Fairy Tales

In conclusion we have all been taught Americans descend from ruggedly self reliant people therefore, we are self reliant. Are we? Can we be strong and self reliant if we believe fairy tales?

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

Predicting Future-Divination-Story Lines-Prophecy-Warning-Podcast 701

 

 

 

Trump State Of The Union-America’s Back-FBI-Russia-Economy Booming-Podcast 697

First of all, the state of the union message used to be a letter. These days you’d think it is the Grammys, Golden Globes or the Oscars. In addition it’s a national event. We’re ‘supposed’ to watch. In Trump State Of The Union-America’s Back-FBI-Russia-Economy Booming-Podcast 697.

America Is Back

Trump’s says the Economy Is Booming and America is Back. Really? Since when is 2.6 percent GDP growth a booming economy?

Wall Street Is Main Street

Furthermore during the Obama presidency republicans used to say ‘Main Street Isn’t Wall Street‘. Now that republicans are in power suddenly main street IS wall street. Even when the market is down.

Booming Roaring Economy, right?

In Trump State Of The Union-America’s Back-FBI-Russia-Economy Booming-Podcast 697 I’ll outline factors that go into our old style measurement of the economy. Yes there are bright spots. Much as we like good news, let’s not go overboard.

Wait. It’s Trump.

Go overboard!

The Tax Bill. The Tax Bill!

The singular legislative ‘accomplishment’ of this administration so far is the tax bill. Lower corporate taxes are thought of as a good thing for business. Whether the so called middle class will benefit remains to be seen. Certainly the economic effects of changes in the tax code only a month old are not part of the current economic numbers. Find out why inTrump State Of The Union-America’s Back-FBI-Russia-Economy Booming-Podcast 697.

Executive Orders!

Trump supporters like to tout his executive orders. Many of these don’t do more than tell cabinet departments think differently. Most importantly Trump is issuing far fewer regulations. Have these actions produced economic results?

Witch Hunts Galore

Especially relevant are investigations on Russia and the FBI. The truth is none of this has had any real impact on the day to day business in the rest of the country and have failed to yield conclusive results so far.

Distractions Are The Order Of The Day

Welcome to life in America at the dawn of a technology revolution. This one makes the industrial revolution look like the middle ages. As it gathers speed every tenet of government and society will be challenged. Meanwhile we’re talking about porn stars and Trump’s latest insult.

No One Cares About Outmoded Thinking

In conclusion, most of the older adults in this country dream of a time marked by their own innocence in the late 1950’s and early 1960’s. Moreover our thinking about almost everything is outmoded. Mercantilism, trade protection, mass surveillance, bigger and more expensive government, and huge debts are not about freedom regardless of which party is in control of congress or the executive branch.

(EDITOR’S NOTE: On February 1st 2018 the Atlanta Federal Reserve projected US Economic Growth in the first quarter of the year to be 5.4 percent. This is a noteworthy prediction and if it holds for the US overall it will be a game changer. 5.4 percent GDP would be robust and if it holds through 2018 the terms ‘booming’ and ‘roaring’ would apply, at least as it pertains to GDP measurement.)

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating, Brush Studio in The West End and Reliafund.

Trump State Of The Union-America’s Back-FBI-Russia-Economy Booming-Podcast 697