Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755

A series of podcasts dedicated to the so called toss up races for the Senate, Governors and House in 2018’s Midterm Election. Most notable in Part 3 are Minnesota’s toss ups. Find out why in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755.

Dive Deep

These days podcasters can dive deep by doing a series of podcasts on one subject. One of my missions at the Bob Davis Podcasts is to provide the antidote to the prattling and predictions.

So I am diving deep!

What IS a Toss Up?

It’s especially relevant that I am reviewing the data and details about states and districts for this series. One of my takeaways is what political scientists and commentators view as a toss up is entirely up to their judgement.

One man’s toss up is another man’s lean republican, or lean democrat.

Story Lines Are Click Bait and Influence Voters

My issue is these predictions create their own story lines. These ‘predictions’ can influence voters negatively.

This Year’s Story Line

This year the story line is republicans will lose the House and Senate and some Governorships because of the antics of President Donald Trump. Is this true?

Learn more in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755.

Minnesota Center Stage

In 2018 Minnesotans elect a Governor, two Senators and eight Congressman. There are also contested statewide races like Attorney General and State Auditor. Moreover Senator Tina Smith is running in her first election after Governor Dayton appointed her to the Senate. We have a lot going on in our state.

Finally so called experts say there are four toss up races in Minnesota this year. Two democrat and two traditionally republican House districts.

Find out if I think it is true in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755.

No Predictions No Partisanship

In conclusion I don’t make predictions or try to make the data ‘lean’ on way or another. I don’t make judgements based on rumors in these districts. I give you the existing data on the district and let you make your own prediction.

Listen To This Series. Know What To Watch For On Election Night

Bottom line, if you listen to this series of podcasts on election night, you’ll know where to look and what races to watch to make an informed prediction about the election’s outcome and what it may or may not mean.

(Editor’s Note: Heads up if you’re using Ballotpedia to check presidential voting stats for individual house districts. One set of data in particular has caused problems for me. A drop down chart purporting to show house election results by HOUSE district is in fact by STATE HOUSE district, In the case of the second district this showed a huge advantage for Trump. It is only in state HOUSE districts, apparently and not overall. A similar chart from the Daily Koz, ON the Daily Koz shows actual house districts and a much closer result. Still a win for Trump in the 2nd in 2016. Despite this update, I still feel the toss up race in 2018 will be in Minnesota’s 3rd district. I did not use this data set for every house race. I don’t think it changes whether a district leans one way or another or is a toss up since I based my analysis on other factors.)

Sponsored by The Water Butler Water Purification Systems and John D Scott Personal Injury Lawyer

Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755

New Nostalgia-Really Want A Throwback To Fifties-Pros and Cons-Podcast 710

Lots of talk these days about the fifties. The 1950’s that is. A time when we made stuff. When men were men and, you know. Was it so great? We’ll talk about it in New Nostalgia-Really Want A Throwback To Fifties-Pros and Cons-Podcast 710.

A Podcast Subscriber Suggestion

One of my subscribers recently suggested I take a moment or a time in history and talk about it. As it relates to the president, part of the populist political theme these days is getting back to a simpler time when America Was Great.

Back In The Day We Were Happy and America was Great

During the time of poodle skirts and Buddy Holly, Marilyn Monroe and amber fields of grain, lots of people worked in manufacturing. Americans ‘made stuff’. Prices were low compared to today. People were happy. Families were important. Sundays was for church. Cars were big and cool. It was the best of times. It was the worst of times.

Seeing Life Through The Gauze of Nostalgia

Nostalgia. A sentimental longing a past. Going back to a place or time with happy personal associations. Surprisingly people are sometimes nostalgic for the time just before they were born, or going back to when they were children. We see nostalgia for the 1980’s from millennials who weren’t even born until the 90’s or 2000’s. We’ll talk about it in New Nostalgia-Really Want A Throwback To Fifties-Pros and Cons-Podcast 710.

Politicians Want Your Vote So They Love The 1950s Too

Especially relevant are politicians who evoke these halcyon times. Movers and shakers who want to associate their name and image with a time that is thought to be idyllically peaceful and happy. While we all would love to experience such a time, by some measurements the 1950’s in the United States wasn’t necessarily the jazz age.

Things Were Simpler In Part Because Populations Were Smaller

In New Nostalgia-Really Want A Throwback To Fifties-Pros and Cons-Podcast 710 we’ll take a close look at the 1950‘s including some memories and stories about the early days of the suburbs and the vast differences in the size and makeup of cities and towns.

How Do You Build A Better Future Dreaming Of The Past?

In conclusion if we are always thinking about a time in the distant past that really wasn’t how we remember or think about it, we’re not thinking about the future. Is it so bad people can be themselves these days? What about being able to communicate. Share vast amounts of data easily? Build highly productive factories that make things better, that last longer and do more? Are things better today than in the 1950’s?

You be the judge in New Nostalgia-Really Want A Throwback To Fifties-Pros and Cons-Podcast 710.

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul and Reliafund

New Nostalgia-Really Want A Throwback To Fifties-Pros and Cons-Podcast 710

Podcast 518

Skyfall. Last week’s vote by Britain to exit the European Zone provoked some of the most hysterical media coverage of an international news story I’ve seen in a long time. To begin with, there was little detailed coverage before the vote. Things we would need to know after the vote, like whether it was binding, how long it would take to negotiate an exit, what trade agreements might be effected, the defense agreements Britain has with other nations, the economic condition of the EU, Britain’s economic contribution to the EU in general, the percentage of the UK’s GDP accounted for in European Trade and so on. Then there is the issue of the world media being ‘on board’ with the remain vote, or at the very least reporting the story line that ‘leave’ would not pass. Consequently, no one was more surprised by a leave vote victory than the perfumed princes sitting in their air conditioned studios. If Skyfall was the fictional last resort of the embattled James Bond in the movie of the same name, watching anchors and pundits tear their hair out, one would think England is heading to Skyfall as we speak! Perhaps the EU’s unelected ‘leaders’ should be the ones heading to Skyfall. ‘Markets Crash’, the media moaned. From a distance, one might be forgiven for believing ‘The End Of The World’ is indeed near. Better head to Skyfall as a last resort! All is lost. The Leave Victory has jostled the carefully constructed ‘citizen of the world’ senses of a younger generation that apparently does not know the world existed before the EU. Well, the truth is the markets will regain their composure. In fact the British Pound recovered to pre-vote levels the Friday after the vote. It’s a tough thing to hear, but the EU has had problems for some time now, specifically the EURO, as southern Europe’s spendthrift policies have led them to demand relief from Northern Europe. Add to that trouble with the ECB, unpopular regulation and a failure to do anything about the Syrian refugee problem, and one wonders whether the EU hadn’t better clean up its act. Maybe Merry Old England delivered a slap in the face to the velvet suited technocrats, so they would go about getting their proverbial act together. Yes, there are real concerns going forward; What trade deals have to be renegotiated? While defense pacts like NATO really aren’t subject to EU control, there are concerns about defense issues and what about the idea of a strong European Community to foster cooperation and peace, to serve as a counterweight to an expansionist Russia, as well as China. There’s a lot to be worked out, but it isn’t the end of the world. The fact is, we are entering a new time, a new day, with new ideas and concerns. People may not have the language to describe their discontent and even disgust with over controlling governments, the edicts of unelected technocrats who spite ‘the great unwashed’, at their peril. When the winds of change blow, electorates have a funny habit of unpredictably lowering the boom on the haughty and confident. A new day indeed. Sponsored by Karow Contracting and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul.