2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 2-Podcast 717

Continuing to run down the toss up races in the 2018 midterm elections for the US House. The big story line? A democrat wave will wrest control of the house from the republicans. In 2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 2-Podcast 717.

From The Midwest Across To The Atlantic Coast

Kansas and Nebraska. East of the Mississippi to Iowa. Minnesota which has some of the closest House races in the country. Illinois in the northern suburbs, and the Land of Lincoln’s southern tip. Across to New York, Georgia, New Hampshire and more.

All About Political Junkies

The second of two parts of a mega podcasting effort for political junkies and subscribers who just want someone to objectively run down all the races in one spot. We’ll challenge some of the myths and tell you why some pundits say this year is a game changer. In 2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 2-Podcast 717.

These days the biggest problem with the media is its penchant for trying to predict the future. Americans are ill served because of this problem. Expectations become truth. Final outcomes turn out to be much harder to predict. Democrats learned this the hard way in 2016’s presidential race.

Republicans Defending The Most Toss Up Seats

Especially relevant is the fact that as a political agnostic, I’m not afraid to tell you there is almost no polling to speak of, despite all the efforts to predict the outcome of 435 House Races. To be sure, the republicans are defending most of the toss up seats.

Why Democrats Believe This Will Be A Wave

Moreover after spending two days poring over election data and reading about local issues and personalties, I can tell you why democrats believe this will be a ‘wave’ election. Do their hopes have any basis in reality? Well. Listen and find out. In 2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 2-Podcast 717.

With the Midterms 7 months away, anything can happen. Moreover primaries in some races will determine the tactical situation in many of the House districts in question. Both parties are furiously trying to raise enough money to compete. Will they be able to commit the resources they’re famous for in the special elections that grabbed all the headlines lately?

All Politics Is Local

That’s the old saying. What are the local issues, personalties and unique characteristics of places we don’t think very much about unless its our home? How many of those out of the way places may have an election that determines the future of our country? Check out 2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 2-Podcast 717 and let’s talk. For the same kind of analysis on the US Senate Toss Up races, go here.

Sponsored by Reliafund Payment Processors and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 2-Podcast 717

Podcast 495

The Light At The End Of The Tunnel? The Light At The End Of The Tunnel? It’s probably a train, right? First Ted Cruz quits the race, then the next day John Kasich quits. So, it is now fair to say that Donald J. Trump has a clear path to be nominated as the Republican Presidential Candidate at the Republican convention this summer. Yes, suddenly the republican establishment which so hated ‘The Donald’ it allowed #nevertrump to continue and in some cases encouraged it, has suddenly embraced the hated Trump even switching over to #neverhillary. So much for the so called ‘principled conservative’ at the top of the GOP. Now what? There’s a lot of ground to cover between now and the last primaries in June, and the conventions. Since there have already been a number of surprises in 2016, it’s fair to say just about anything could happen at either the republican or democrat convention. In treating the media story-lines with healthy skepticism, one wonders what happens to the Red State Blogs and Glenn Beck’s of the world? What happens to all the #nevertrump and Cruz supporting talk show hosts? Do they suddenly start working for Hillary Clinton? What about the outside possibility Bernie Sanders wins California and democrat super delegates start abandoning the USS Hillary? If Trump is the nominee – and to be fair it looks like he is going to be unless something happens between now and Cleveland – can he win the presidency? Already we’re seeing the same kind of ‘predict the future’ journalism now, we saw at the beginning of the Trump candidacy. Trump can not win, he starts in the hole and will never beat Clinton or Sanders. He’s a bully. He’s a xenophobe. He’s an authoritarian. If you’re a woman you’ll vote for Hillary. There are protests against Trump in the streets which may end up helping his candidacy, actually. Can Trump win? Of course he can. He went against the odds and crushed a whole field of republicans, although media compliments aside, the republican field this year was a disaster and the debates exposed them all as completely unprepared for the spotlight, except for the one guy who knows how to play the TV Reality Show Game. So yeah, Trump can win. The only problem with a Trump presidency is, republicans will probably regret it. Conservatives for Trump? Don’t make me laugh. Trade protection, Keynesian economics and nativism are hardly ‘conservative’ ideas. There are going to be a lot of long faces for republicans when they learn what a Trump presidency might actually mean for them, unless you want to work at a bucket factory or coal mine, where millennials with graduate degrees want to work, right? On the other hand, why not? It’s gonna be great! For too long republicans have masqueraded as conservatives, railing against abortion and same-sex marriage while they voted to increase budgets year after year for things like ‘education’ and stadiums for billionaire sports owners. Who deserves Trump? Republicans deserve Trump. The Light At End Of The Tunnel? It’s a Trump. No wait! It’s a train. Sponsored by X Government Cars and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul.

 

Podcast 463

Inside An Iowa Caucus. Live from Tennessee, we take a final look at the Iowa Caucuses, by taking subscribers inside a rural Iowa precinct caucus. Thirteen US States and 2 US territories use the caucus system. People who live in states with primary elections – where people cast a single vote on a ballot of some kind on primary election day – may hear the word ‘caucus’ but have never been inside one and don’t really understand the process. As democrats argue about how Hillary Clinton eked out a victory in the Iowa caucus, and Donald Trump making noises about Ted Cruz’ efforts to win, just how a caucus is conducted is news. In this podcast we take you inside an Iowa Caucus; The Rules, The Speeches, The Vote Counting and The Results. If you’re lucky enough to live in a state with caucuses, when you participate you’re taking part in one of the oldest democratic processes in the world. Classic representative government in Athens, Rome, and the Venetian Republic among others, allowed a sort of people’s congress. All citizens in good standing could participate in choosing candidate for leadership positions. We still do it to this day with caucuses. It’s fascinating to participate, or listen to everyday citizens conducting an orderly meeting in which leaders are nominated, voted upon, and citizens from that precinct are chosen to represent their neighbors at the next level meeting. While these podcasts have questioned Iowa’s permanent position as the first in the nation vote in presidential cycles, the commitment of its citizens to the process should be celebrated. Having escaped the snows of Des Moines and decamped to Chattanooga Tennessee, I am joined in this podcast by an old friend, who also provides some insight as to how one of the key states in the so called ‘Southeastern Conference’ may vote on Super Tuesday. From here, its on to South Carolina, where all the campaigns are headed after New Hampshire. This concludes the Iowa Caucus portion of 2016 coverage for the Bob Davis Podcasts. A few days of barbecue, shooting and some southern hospitality and we’re back on the road again. (Big thanks to John Berg of Jefferson, Iowa for inviting the Bob Davis Podcasts into his precinct caucus!) Sponsored by Brush Studio and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul.

Podcast 415

Republican Nightmare. With the suspension of Governor Scott Walker’s Presidential campaign comes an opportunity to critique Republican politics, specifically the leadership and Republican rank and file. Aside from the snark, the media has reported that the Wisconsin Governor lamented the absence of ‘Reagan Style Optimism’ in Republican politics so far in the 2016 cycle. Thing is, Republicans themselves aren’t optimistic. In fact Republicans these days are so pessimistic one wonders if they would recognize Ronald Reagan if he were resurrected, or even vote for him. It sure seems like most Republicans think the President is a secret muslim, hell bent on destroying the country, that China took all our jobs, that Jesus is coming back (as soon as the election is over) and all sorts of other rather negative ideas, even if you think they’re true. Can the Republicans win a national election with this kind of negative view of the present situation and the future? Can you win a national election with no real economic plan, save for tax cuts, no foreign policy plan, no real domestic plan and nothing but a list of debatable complaints? The solution appears to be Donald Trump, a reality TV star with a penchant for one liners, and the absence of something called ‘a plan’. As Trump’s popularity increases, preference for the so called Republican Brand decreases. And yet, because of GOP rule changes in 2012, if Donald Trump can translate poll numbers into wins in five states, he may have enough delegates to win the Republican nomination. Who will stop him? Jeb Bush? Chris Christie? Rand Paul? Mike Huckabee? Marco Rubio? Ted Cruz? Lindsay Graham? Which of these candidates can win five states? Or, even one? Scott Walker is suggesting the party unite around someone, anyone other than Trump. Who’s fault IS Trump anyway? Have the moderates — interested only in holding onto their power — screwed the pooch? The moderates are the ones who wanted the debates, and they’re responsible for the monolithically stupid rule changes in 2012, and the rules that allowed the debates to be stacked toward candidates who did well in hack polls. Because of this, you might be saying hello to Republican Presidential Nominee Donald Trump in the future. This is why 2016 may turn out to be a terrible sequel of 2008, and 2012 for the GOP. We are getting close to Halloween, after all. Sponsored by Autonomous Cad, and Pride of Homes

Podcast 309

Vaccination Politics. As predicted by The Bob Davis Podcasts, whether to vaccinate or not has become a big political issue in the United States. Senator Rand Paul and potential candidate for the Republican nomination for President in 2016 got into a spat about whether people should be required to vaccinate their children against Measles and Rubella. New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, another potential candidate for the Republican nomination for President stepped on a political land mine when he suggested people ought to have a choice whether to vaccinate their children. Ben Carson, yet another presumptive presidential candidate split hairs in his ‘statement’, and you can be sure several others on all sides of the political spectrum will issue ‘statements’ in the next few days on the subject, as an outbreak of Measles in California captures the media’s attention. Berkeley, California wants a 21 day quarantine for all kids who’s parents refuse to vaccinate (the kids are ecstatic … no school for most of the month! Please don’t vaccinate me mom!) and nothing seems to horrify the left in this country more these days than a refusal to vaccinate. Is it possible people have about had it with government interventions? Federal and State Government intrusions into the personal lives of Americans is starting to become almost comic. They want to make you vaccinate your child so he or she can be healthy enough to what? Eat school lunches that wouldn’t have been fit for the Soviet Gulag? That’s healthy, huh! The perfumed princes and princesses walking through the marble hallways of our Federal Government cathedrals in Washington D.C. and the State Capitols might just be out of step with Americans who have a lot of questions about the long term effects of vaccines. You can call them stupid and try to bamboozle them into certain kinds of behavior, and you can even require certain kinds of behavior, but at some point they’re going to push back. One thing people seem to know, ‘Scientists’ are wrong a lot of the time. Doctors and hospitals will kill you if you’re not careful, and there’s nothing wrong with asking questions and taking control of your own health care, or the health care of your children. If the scolds would leave people alone once in a while, they might just make the right decision. What is it about liberty that so frightens the statist? Plus, stories about the General Manager of the Bob Davis Podcasts, getting the flu, Mexican Coke, Coffee (the cure for all that is wrong), and more in a longer podcast. (Editor’s Note: People keep saying things to me like, ‘My run on the treadmill in the morning takes exactly 45 minutes. I would like a 45 minute Podcast’. Ok. Here it is.). And an appearance from MPR Bob at the close. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul and Depotstar

Podcast 306

Political Polarization. This Podcast is live from the backyard, on a warm summer night. This is made possible by the magic of on demand audio. How did politics get so personal? How did Political Polarization become something written and talked about all the time. These days it seems like the media tries to divide Americans by slicing and dicing poll data. What’s the real divider in America today? The Government. What’s the solution? Maybe getting the government out of the people’s lives. Is the solution a third political party? Former Minnesota Governor Jessie Ventura is saddened by the news that the Independence Party has lost major party status in his home state. What about Ventura’s one term as Minnesota’s Governor? How did that work out? Meanwhile, how does one explain the fact that ‘divided’ Americans keep putting up moderate candidates like Mitt Romney, Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, Hillary Clinton and Jim Webb? If American Politics is so polarized, why do moderate candidates consistently end up as favorites? Mitt Romney continues toying with a presidential run, trash talking Clinton and Obama, but offering no solutions or plans of his own. (Editor’s Note: And you wonder why I say Republican arguments so far are nothing by rhetoric.) Is it possible we Americans run a little deeper on the issues than polling data can show? Is it possible people are divided on different issues, yet not necessarily ‘polarized’ when it comes to the leaders they choose? Has the growth of government in our personal lives made everything political? Is it possible the divisions, and frustration and anger might be mitigated if Washington and Saint Paul would just get out of the way? Sponsored by Depotstar

Podcast 304

Snow Storms and Drones. Midweek update on the top stories, starting with the New York Blizzard of the century that fizzled. Now the Governor of New York, Governor of New Jersey and Mayor of New York City look like Chicken Little. A National Weather Service Meteorologist has apologized – profusely – for going so far as to suggest the city be evacuated. This is the same meteorologist who perfectly predicted Hurricane Sandy. Maybe he got lucky, or Pride Goeth Before The Fall. The Justice Department has investigated the death of Michael Brown in Ferguson, Missouri last summer, and has decided – drum roll please – not to press charged against Police Officer Darren Wilson. Will there be apologies from the ‘Hands Up Don’t Shoot’ crowd for lying? Don’t count on it. Remember the fanfare that greeted the release of Army Sergeant Bowe Bergdahl last summer? Almost immediately his brothers in arms said he was a deserter. Now Bergdahl will have to go through a Court Martial to determine whether its true. Bergdahl stands to lose rank and at least three hundred thousand dollars in back pay and benefits. Finally a man described as a drunk ‘federal employee’ lost control of a drone Monday night while he was flying it ‘at an apartment building a few blocks from the White House’. He went to bed, woke up the next morning, heard it had crashed onto the lawn of the White House, and called the Secret Service himself to tell them that, yeah he was the guy. The employee works for the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, which provides the NSA and the Department Of Defense with … you know, stuff. This shows what off the shelf disruptive technology can do to centrally controlled structures, like give the secret service another black eye. Just what they need. The President was traveling Monday, and wasn’t at the White House, although his kids were. Sponsored by Depotstar

Podcast 264

Jeb Bush? Really? What started as a midweek update, back in the studio after the road trip, turned into a discussion of whether the ‘conservative movement’ has completely lost its way, even whether it exists at all. As Congress seems to struggle with how to handle President Obama’s executive orders on immigration, in an effort to avoid a government shutdown which moderates feel is bad publicity for Republicans, the Speaker’s plan is apparently to pass a continuing resolution for the overall budget while offering a separate budget for Homeland Security (Which is where the funding for the President’s controversial executive order on Immigration is funded). This leaves room for the complete Republican 117th Congress to address these issues after January. This strategy isn’t sitting well with some Republicans who believe they were sent there to stop the President’s power grab. While political junkies should probably stop worrying about Congress and start concentrating on building organizations for 2016, there is a big fight brewing on both sides of the political spectrum. Progressive and Moderate Democrats on one side, and a mixed bag of Republican constituencies on the other. Libertarians, Moderates, Religious Conservatives all vying for control of the GOP … again. This leaves space for yet another Bush to ride in on the White Horse they keep down there on the ranch and be ‘the adult in the room’ and stop all those crazy ‘Paul-Bots’, and ‘Tea Baggers’; i.e.; The Conservative Movement. Or what’s left of it. The challenge in this podcast is, once again, to define what exactly a conservative is? While the Republicans won a huge midyear victory, that victory does not mean the ‘movement’ is healthy … or even alive. A conservative is a former Florida Governor who believes in Common Core and doesn’t want to repeal Obama Care? Republicans might have won a legislative majority in 2014, but that doesn’t mean they know what they’re doing. All it shows — and they certainly deserve credit for it — is that they were able to get their people out to vote, while the other side stayed home. But what is the GOP for? What do the conservatives want to do about economic policy, spending and debt, foreign policy? The so called grassroots are talking about 1776, the constitution and a constitutional convention (Editor’s Note: The dumbest idea ever.) This is a conservative ‘movement’? Next? Someone finally has taken the pundits who keep saying cheaper gas is like a huge tax cut. Except it’s not. In this podcast find out why. Plus, don’t forget there is an ominous demand side to the cheaper gas we’re currently enjoying; Slow downs in Europe, Japan, China and Latin America do not bode well for the global economy, and the US isn’t growing dynamically to pull everyone else’s fat out of the fire this time. Black Friday turned out to be a bust. So don’t expect that just because gas is 2.49 a gallon it means unicorns and rainbows, economically speaking that is. Sponsored by X Government Cars and by Depotstar

Podcast 258

Fox News Crushes. As we head into Thanksgiving, people taking various parts of the week off, heading out on the road to where ever they’re going, easing into the week. The big story to watch in the next few days is Ferguson, Missouri. Deliberations of the Grand Jury there on whether or not there is enough evidence to charge the policeman who shot and killed Michael Brown during and after an altercation with Brown. The Grand Jury could report out at any time until January 7th, when its term comes to an end, and a new jury is empaneled. Media critics have suddenly discovered that Fox News is beating the daylights out of its cable competitors CNN and MSNBC, and on election night 2014, all three of the major networks as well. What will happen to CNN and MSNBC? What is the future for the broadcast news networks and stations? While Fox News will probably reign for some time, even Cable Television is starting to show its age. How will new digital sources of information and new ways for people to get their news effect the 2016 election. As we witness a revolution in Media, will we witness a revolution in politics? Whenever there is a major national or international story such as President Obama’s executive order on Immigration recently, The Bob Davis Podcasts gets a spate of emails from listeners, with examples of emails they want to send to Speaker Of The House John Boehner telling him what to do, and what they don’t like. Is it better to send emails and call your congressman’s office? Or to start working in local politics to influence your local governments, state government and state wide races, with an eye toward developing an organization that delivers votes and money, and therefore influence? There are many Republicans who might be candidates for President in 2016. The worst thing that could happen is another season of debates between 16 candidates. Forget writing letters to the Speaker and start organizing in your neighborhood. While there are divisions in the Republican party (watch as the media develops that story line), there are also divisions among Democrats. Republicans continue to need a cogent plan for improving the US Economy, showing they’re capable of running the White House (not too hard, given the current occupant) and a plan to improve the international relations of the US. On the Bill Cosby front, come the obligatory commentaries about how Hollywood, Politics and Sports do not give our children any role models anymore. Its time people started acting as role models for their own children, and especially teach them its ok to have heroes and role models, but famous people are humans too and they make mistakes, sometimes terrible mistakes. Planning on doing some drinking this Thanksgiving? Did you know doctors may consider you an excessive drinker? Find out why and how. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

Podcast 242 – Governor Scott Walker

Governor Scott Walker. The Wisconsin Governor joins the Bob Davis Podcasts. We caught up with Walker, campaigning in Somerset, Wisconsin in the finals days of the 2014 campaign. Supporters talk about why they believe in Walker, and the differences between Minnesota and Wisconsin politics. As the final days of the race tick by, a new poll shows Walker leading by 7 points. For most of the race, it has been a see-saw with little more than a point separating Walker, or his opponent Mary Burke from the lead. So far, the race has been too close to call. With the President, First Lady and former President Bill Clinton campaigning for Burke, and the Unions pouring cash into attack TV ads and ground game, this will be one of the most interesting races to watch on Election night 2014. Not only is the race important for Wisconsinites, this is probably the one gubernatorial race in the United States that commands national attention. Most of the focus of Election 2014 coverage has been the US Senate. With Republicans sure to add to its majority in the House of Representatives, the story line has been that the party will manage to pick up 6+ seats in the Senate races, to regain control of the US Senate. The Bob Davis Podcast hasn’t talked a lot about local races, so this is a departure. What makes it interesting is the similarities between Minnesota and Wisconsin, and the clear differences. Both states have a large number of rural counties that vote republican, with a few urban centers that vote democrat. Scott Walker and Republicans in the state Assembly have been able to overcome a disadvantage Minnesota Republicans so far haven’t quite figured out how to do. Walker’s supporters — some of them former Minnesota residents now living in Western Wisconsin — offer a glimpse into how politics in the two states differ. At first blush, its passion combined with a candidate that offer hope and a chance to win. How does Walker do it? Perhaps it is his willingness to take big risks to reap big rewards. Another factor may be grassroots support and organization, that generates votes and contributions consistently. In states with seeming democrat locks, due to large urban populations, the focus needs to be on smaller, medium sized cities, and counties where town government, school boards, and county governments suffer at the hands of a progressive government that must tax and regulate to meet altruistic obligations and to cover the costs of union pay and benefits. Western Wisconsin, in particular, is home to many small and medium sized businesses that serve Western Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota (The Twin Cities Metro). Although it might be sacrilege to suggest it, the Gopher state might take some lessons — at least politically — from the Badger state. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul