Podcast 569-Final State by State Round Up. Where the state polls stand for presidential candidates right before election day 2016. This podcast does not endorse a candidate. I will not make you feel good or bad about your vote, or non vote. I will not attach ‘indexes’ and ‘percentage probabilities’ to potential wins or losses for the candidates. In Podcast 569-Final State by State Round Up, how candidates fare in each of the states according to existing polls. Partisan and advocacy journalists don’t provide insight on survey research. I do. What you’re getting from the cable news channels and advocacy news ‘websites’ are charlatans pushing their point of view. Fact is, no one knows how the election will play out in any of the so called battleground states. That’s because despite all the best effort, even the best political researchers are challenged to determine who is actually going to show up to vote especially when the polls show a close vote, within the margins of error. Elections are made on who votes. Not the number of signs. Not the number of people who show up at rallies. Not who ran the best TV spots. It’s all about getting the vote out. Once the vote is in, it’s all about counting. Is the election rigged? In a sense, yes. The United States is a representative republic which elects its executive not by the popular vote but through an institution known as the Electoral College. Some states’ electoral slates are proportionally chosen. Some states select electoral slates by party. The electors themselves have already been chosen. They will actually select the President of the United States on December 15th, 2016. In some states the popular vote determines how the electors are ‘supposed’ to vote. In some states it depends on which party’s candidate wins the overall vote. No so called ‘rogue elector‘ has ever been prosecuted for voting outside the state statute guidelines. In the event of an electoral tie, the election will be decided by the US House of Representatives. One thing is true, the republicans are the ones talking about ‘rigged’ elections right now, but if Donald Trump wins the presidency they’ll stop talking about that immediately and the democrats will start talking about things being ‘rigged’. The only thing coverage of these kinds of conspiracies do is reduce the faith Americans and the rest of the world has in the electoral process. In reality, ‘rigging’ a national election is a difficult task, despite what movies and conspiracy theorists say. If you are concerned about your candidate winning the election, the best thing you can do is turn off the TV and get out and help them win by driving people to the polls or making last minute calls, poll watching, or if you’re qualified, volunteering as an election judge. Thankfully we’ll be looking at election night results in the next podcast. Sponsored by Hydrus Performance and Brush Studio, in the West End, Saint Louis Park.
Podcast 555-The Bob Davis Radio Show-46. An all new podcast doubling as the radio show for this week. There’s two considerations here. First, if you’re a subscriber to The Bob Davis Podcasts, repeating content in the radio show is, well, repetitive. Second, the podcasts this week, whether Podcast 554 (State by State poll run down) or Podcast 553 (Interview with AgoraFest‘s Nik Ludwig), the content doesn’t lend itself well to be excerpted. So, for Podcast 555-The Bob Davis Radio Show-46, I did a completely new segment updating the polling data for just the so called ‘Toss-Up’ States in Election 2016 with special attention paid to the Senate races in key states. I also added a segment with a little bit more of a primer about polls, and how they are used or misused in media coverage. These two benchmarks; Podcast 554 and Podcast 555-The Bob Davis Radio Show-46 are great to listen to because then when you hear or see new information on state by state polling, you’ll understand which states are important and how the polling in that state may have changed. You’ll also understand trending polls from different pollsters isn’t necessarily providing an accurate picture of what’s going to happen when people actually vote. I use the electoral map from Real Clear Politics and you can follow along if you want. Others are available. Almost all of them are interactive. Finally, some words about Individual Sovereignty. There’s a lot of back-and-forth in this election cycle and a lot of coverage of the back-and-forth; What this one said about that one, whether this is going to effect his or her poll numbers. There’s a lot of content from shills defending one candidate or attacking another. There’s been very little actual discussion about what freedom is or how these new representatives, senators and presidents are going to insure we get to keep it. We can get distracted by the shiny things in the woods, or we can stay focused on claiming our personal sovereignty. How we personally define freedom in the coming months and years is going to become very important. The current two-party system is coming to an end. That is; The Republican and Democratic parties have lost touch with the people. Something new is coming and we need to make sure whatever that is protects and defends our individual freedom. Sponsored by X Government Cars.
Podcast 554-Latest Election State By State Polls. For you political junkies, which includes me, it’s been a month since the last analysis of political polls state by state, and I promised another one at the end of September, 2016. If you want to compare the two state by state poll podcasts to really get a sense of movement check out Podcast 541. I do not intend to analyze the debate. I will not tell you who won the debate. I will not tell you whether people pay attention to the debates. None of the current state by state polls were taken after the debates so they do not reflect the effects on either candidate of the debates. With this in mind, over 80 million people watched the September 26th debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. The next state-by-state poll roundup podcast at the end of October will show what effect – if any – the debates may or may not have had. The biggest change between this podcast and the podcast in late August is that there are now more ‘toss up’ states — that is states with poll averages for president within the margin of error. In Podcast 554-State By State Polls, I am drawing on data from Real Clear Politics. Follow the link directly to an interactive electoral map of the United States and follow along, or may your own map. The tightening could be knock on effects from Clinton’s bad week of September 11th, or it could just be due to more polls closer to the election, when respondents start paying attention and are more likely to give responses. You’ll have to listen for my conclusions about whether more toss up states mean anything, but for the most part, both candidates are within the margins in 2012 and 2008 in the states they lead, or are trading leads. The big questions remain Florida, Ohio, Pennsyvania, Virginia, and to a lesser extent North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, and western states like Colorado, Arizona and Nevada. This is a state by state electoral election, so the national polls don’t matter, and the snap polls on who won the debate don’t matter. All that matters is the candidate’s performance, and get out the vote efforts for them in key electoral states. Listen and learn the state by state strongholds, battlegrounds, advantages and disadvantages, roughly a month out. We’ll come back at the end of October and again just before the election in early November, and see how the campaigning, media, and news events have changed the political landscape. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing of Saint Paul.
Podcast 541. Electoral College Yoga. Get ready to twist your brain into pretzel like shapes as I talk about the electoral college, polls, and what the benchmarks for Election 2016 are so far. I’ll do another benchmark in about a month and one just before the election in late October, or early November. There are a lot of caveats on polling data. While most media people and their viewers seem to want to talk about national presidential preference polls, the proof of the pudding is in the state by state polls. The United States does not elect its presidents with a national vote. In fact, a presidential election is fifty state elections. Voters are selecting a slate of electors, chosen and voting generally according to state law and state party rules. So when you hear one candidate is ‘ahead’ over another in a national poll it really doesn’t mean anything. In 2008 and again in 2012 Republicans in particular were so hopeful based on national preference polls that if you said McCain or Mitt Romney wasn’t going to win, you were ‘raining on the parade’. But, if you looked closely at state polls in those election cycles, the outcome was not a surprise. State polls have their own problems; Smaller sample size, different polling methodologies, and in some states they are no polls until just before the election. While its not advisable to compare different polls of different sources and methodologies, we do it all the time. We’re looking for trends primarily. Currently while Donald J. Trump leads Hillary Clinton in a national presidential preference poll, the state polls tell a completely different story. It’s not a good story for republicans. The case isn’t closed. Trump still has time, but time is fleeting. I don’t support any candidate. I’m not working for any candidate. I’m not going to tell you how to vote. I’m also not going to spin the polling data to make you think something can happen, or is going to happen. If you want the straight talk on what’s going on, the Bob Davis Podcasts is the place to check back for these benchmark state-by-state analyses as we progress to Election Day 2016. Sponsored by Karow Contracting and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul.
Republicans Need To Grow Up. As Ted Cruz ‘steals’ Colorado’s delegates to the RNC, Trump supporters throw a fit. If the Republicans lose the 2016 presidential election it won’t be the so called establishment’s fault. If the Republicans lose the 2016 presidential election it won’t even be the candidate’s fault. If the Republicans lose the 2016 presidential election, and its Senate majority it will be the Republican Rank and File voter’s fault. If this week’s tantrums are any example, Republicans Need To Grow Up. And soon. These podcasts have stated again and again that people voting in so called presidential primaries are not selecting a candidate. Candidate selection is done at the convention, by convention delegates. As Donald Trump and his supporters rage about the system being rigged its time for some truth telling. Yes, children, the system is rigged. If you want to change it you are going to have to take over the system. Unfortunately the GOP rank and file is filled with people who have a shocking lack of depth on issues, a breathtaking ignorance on context and the emotional maturity of an eighth grader (and that’s being kind), and no stomach for the hard work political change requires. Voting in elections is not enough. Change requires people be wiling to serve, not stand up at meetings and talk about ‘messaging’. The Republican party is populated with a majority of people who think an argument is an insult, a meme, a video someone else posted five years ago, a discussion on FaceBook that lasts all of two exchanges, the last one something along the lines of, “You love Obama”, or “You’re voting for Hillary, aren’t you?”. These people — and there are a lot of them — do not have the emotional maturity or political knowledge to win a presidential election. Period. They aren’t able to argue, or reason. They aren’t ‘conservatives’, they can’t even define what a ‘conservative’ is. Republicans are Tories, concerned about the future but still loyal to the crown. In this podcast someone actually defines the political spectrum in terms that make sense, and explains why republicans and democrats don’t seem to have a problem with government solutions and socialism. If you really want to change things, its going to take more than being angry. Sponsored by Hydrus and Brush Studio in the West End, Saint Louis Park, Mn.
Fight For Your Caucus. Web Designer, Senate District Chair and CD5 Secretary Mitch Rossow joins the podcast to talk about the latest misguided initiative by mainstream republicans in Minnesota. State Representative Steve Garofalo and others want to get rid of the caucuses in Minnesota. Oddly enough, before Super Tuesday, the reason for getting rid of the caucus system was low participation. On Super Tuesday Minnesota experienced a record turnout for its caucuses. So now, apparently, there are too many people caucusing. Isn’t that what we want? Seems like the truth is those in power don’t like the caucus system because it allows for the grass roots to develop new leaders. Critics say the caucuses are too ‘inside’, but aren’t the critics the real insiders? It would be so much easier if the goons in Saint Paul picked party leaders and candidates rather than the citizens. The caucus is one of the few opportunities average citizens have to participate in and influence the political process. Democrats in the state are concerned about this initiative, since the late Senator Paul Wellstone developed the movement that ultimately put him in office through this channel. Mitch Rossow has developed a precinct organization training program, and a training program for caucus conveners. Precinct organizing is the next step after caucuses and its the quickest way for citizens to take back their local representation and eventually state legislature and statewide offices. The enemy of the Republican is the Republican. While Democrats in the state post training videos well before caucuses, and have programs to bring volunteers in to help their caucus attendees understand the process, republicans never got around to doing much of anything to help local precincts with their caucuses. Now they want to do away with it entirely. Moral of the story; the MNGOP talks a lot about democracy and inclusiveness, but doesn’t walk the talk. One wonders what it is that they actually do; Not much of anything. Most of the time the state party is whining and asking the local political units for help. On the DFL side, it’s the reverse. Maybe there a lesson there for the entrenched perfumed princes, hidden behind a security wall at their office in Cedar Riverside. What a joke. With so many new participants this year, maybe a new crop of leaders is being harvested. It can’t happen soon enough. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating and X Government Cars.
Super Tuesday. Final thoughts from Norman, Oklahoma as this Road Trip draws to a close, On the eve of Super Tuesday, 2016. A dozen or so states and territories have primaries or caucuses scheduled for democrat and republican parties. The media has covered — and will continue to cover — this primary season like a general election and now we have arrived at the second big day after Iowa’s Caucuses a month or so ago … Super Tuesday. For people wondering who to vote for. For people who think this is the actual election. For people who believe the charlatans on talk radio, and the talking heads on TV, and the blow hards at the local political meetings telling you what you should do; Some points to ground you. This is not a general election. These candidates are running to amass delegates to the party convention. Delegates who probably won’t even vote to nominate the candidate they may or may not be pledged to when the final vote for the nomination comes at the end of the mainline party conventions this summer. Candidates are coming to your state and your town to talk to the movers and shakers in the parties, and they’re making deals behind the scenes while the media covers the little shows they put on for the public called ‘retail political’ events. They’re all the same. Meanwhile our news media focuses on personalities, innuendo, open fights, name calling and other antics. Why? It’s the fire on the prairie, the war in the mountains. It’s what produces clicks and views and it’s what keeps the perfumed princes of media in their chairs, and in five thousand dollar suits and one thousand dollar shoes. The country needs new thinking, new ideas and new action to bring in the new economy that is out there, coming into the world, whether the czars in Washington and New York and Hollywood, and Silicon Valley want it. We need a government that protects our constitutional rights and secures our defense, and does little else. We need policies that free the individual, provide economic opportunity for everyone, and gets out of our way. Is this represented in the political mess that is the ‘primary election cycle 2016’? Sponsored by Pride of Homes and X Government Cars.
Licensing Yoga Instructors? Updates to start the week out right. This is the day Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker will sign the state’s Right To Work law, making Wisconsin the 26th state to do so. Is Wisconsin so different from Minnesota? A University Professor says they didn’t used to be, but now that they advocate laws like ACT 10 and Right To Work they are. Fact is, Wisconsin has always been more industrial than Minnesota and was settled by people from different parts of Europe. Moreover, Wisconsin’s industrial base is a little older than Minnesota’s. Is it possible Wisconsin is facing the fall out from too much regulation and choking demands from unions in the public and private sector a decade or so sooner than Minnesota? With Target, and now General Mills laying off people, and businesses considering the Badger state’s friendlier attitude toward business, things might not be as rosy in the Land of Ten Thousand Lakes as some think. While Wisconsin’s Assembly and Governor address these kinds of problems, Minnesota’s legislature is playing small ball, trying to break up the Minneapolis School District and brokering peace between warring DFL leaders. Is Minnesota too passive-aggressive to actually have the discussion about what is best for the future of the state, between progressives and conservatives? And in Colorado, the state legislature is considering requiring yoga instructors to be licensed, introducing higher costs and more regulation. The sponsors? A publicly traded company with lots of studios called ‘CorePowerYoga’. Suddenly crony capitalism wears Yoga Pants. In Minneapolis are you ready to pay for yet another Stadium. Rich Guy Bill McGuire and his rich friends including the Pohlads and Glen Taylor want the hard working tax payers of the state of Minnesota to foot the bill for a professional soccer team. And the artist responsible for all that triumphal Red Guard Propaganda in China during the Cultural Revolution, a man who flourished while others were being oppressed, will be painting the official portrait of Pope Francis. Wonder if the Pope will be wearing a green hat with a red star on it? He should. Sponsored by Complete Basement Systems.
The IRS Needs More Money? Another update podcast from the newsroom at the Bob Davis Podcasts. The head of the IRS was back on the hill recently crying for more money, saying the agency uses computer programs from the dark ages and can’t do what it is supposed to do, collect taxes, because it has too many things to do. Does the IRS have too much to do, and too little money to do it? Or, is it another VA; another poster child for the failure of big government. Meanwhile, you have a less than one percent chance of being audited, unless you make over a million dollars, or cause red flags (in those archaic computer programs) to be activated. Perhaps it is time to talk about a new head of the agency. Or maybe even a new method of taxation that does away with this agency. Should we pursue tax reform under President Obama or make it a campaign issue in 2016. What proof is there that anyone with an R in front of their on the ballot is going to actually ‘reform’ taxation policy? Colorado’s legalization of Marijuana has caused so many millions of dollars in taxes to be collected that a state law might require it be returned, much to the chagrin of republicans and democrats in the legislature. Guess what? They want to pass a law so they can keep it all … for education. Two shootings that involved police officers in Hennepin county this week provoked some to question how people who were either convicted felons, or known to be unstable (and thus afoul of the law) managed to get guns. While the gun control movement in the US thinks the solution is to pass a law that says people like that can’t have guns…yet they always seem to get them. Fifty Shades of Grey sex toys have hit the shelves … at Target. The company says the Fifty Shades marketing package which contains blindfolds – among other things – will be placed in an adult area of the store, but one pic surfaced of the Fifty Shades stuff next to children’s tooth brushes. Surprisingly, China will have the most robots in use in their manufacturing sector by 2017. Who will make the Robots? Swiss, German and Japanese companies. Expect thousands to be laid off in China’s automotive and technology sectors. Science may have figured out how to reverse the effects of aging and how to end the common cold. Sponsored by My Complete Basement Systems and by Depotstar.
Christmas 2014! Live from the mall for the last few hours of Christmas shopping. Getting through the shortest days of the year in the Northern Hemisphere, celebrating the return of the light. This has been a weird holiday season, news wise. With the NYPD police/protester story, and the recent police involved shooting in the Saint Louis Metro, as well as the Sony Hack continuing story the News Watch Never Stops at the Bob Davis Podcasts. So, in a soft way, updating you for Christmas Day, 2014. As protests and police involved shootings continue to happen and people fire off uninformed and ignorant missives to each other on social media, this one may just have to run its course. On the Sony front, the FBI says North Korea did it. Does the FBI have enough evidence to say North Korea is responsible? There will be time to get back down in it, after Christmas. Aside from the lurid stories, the meatiest story this week has been the 3rd quarter economic numbers that have the media, and the President crowing ‘boom’. Is it? The new 5% GDP numbers are revisions, but the media doesn’t explain why US Economic numbers are revised at least three times, and then revised annually. Now the media is rolling every anecdotal experience into the numbers as ‘proof’ the ‘US is back!’. In this podcast, we’ll look a little deeper into those numbers to help you decide what they mean, and inform your decision on whether you think things are ‘booming’, economically speaking. Denver is experiencing an increase in its homeless population. The theory is, they are coming for legal pot. Watch out for the new advice on the ‘homeless’. When you see a street person you’re supposed to engage with them, in order to see them as human beings. This is a dangerous course of action, and really irresponsible, especially if you have small children with you. We all feel bad for those less fortunate, but some of them are dealing from a very challenged perspective, and you don’t know what they’ll do at any moment. Stay clear for your own safety. You’ve heard of the Obama Phone? Now they want to give people free broad band internet access. Yep. The Internet is a human right, which means the rest of us should pay for it, with additional charges on our phone bills, so people less fortunate can have free Internet. Finally, Miley Cyrus is banned from the Shriver/Kennedy Christmas Celebration in Massachusetts. Cyrus is dating Maria Shriver and Arnold Schwarzenegger’s son Patrick, and momma doesn’t like her. (Editor’s Note: Aside from the fact that Cyrus probably has more money than the Kennedy’s, and if she doesn’t she will, at least she works, and doesn’t just lay about lending her name to every left wing cause that comes down the pike. Miley, you’re better off!) Sponsored by Autonomous Cad.