Nomad-Dollars-Sense-Part2-Bob Davis Podcast 1102

Nomad Dollar Sense Part2

Firstly to focus on nomad dollars and sense in Part2 we’re going to be talking about leading economic indicators. Details in Nomad-Dollars-Sense-Part2-Bob Davis Podcast 1102. For references to details in this podcast listen to Part1 of this series and Bob Davis Podcast 1069.

Don’t Be Afraid Of Numbers

Secondly I use a few numbers.

Data Links With Charts

Therefore I’ll be posting a series of links to the data and charts for that data here.

Because we all know charts often make raw numbers a little clearer.

Not Just Reciting Numbers

However listeners and subscribers should know I’ve worked very hard to keep from just reciting numbers.

Context and Relevance

That is to say that where ever time permits in Nomad-Dollars-Sense-Part2-Bob Davis Podcast 1102 I’ll explain the context and relevance of an indicator.

Most importantly these leading economic indicators do not suggest a healthy economy.

Certainly things could change to the better…

Look Beyond Main Stream

But for the time being we would all be better served to look beyond the mainstream and main street story.

Leading Indicators

To begin with here’s a link to the conference board’s leading indicators.

Hours Worked

And hours worked by Americans nationally.

US GDP

Here’s the GDP numbers for the United States.

Consumer Price Index

And the Consumer Price Index.

Rents Headed Down

More importantly when it comes to rents, take a look at the Zillow Rent Index.

Especially relevant here is the fact that thousands of apartments are being built or coming on line at this time.

Moreover while that’s better for renters it’s not good news if you just bought an apartment building.

In addition this is a number which speaks to inflation overall which still shows shelter elevated.

Producer Price Index

Even more when it comes to inflation the PPI is a better forward indicator of economic growth than the CPI.

Inflation Disinflation Deflation

To sum up these are just some of the data that suggests we’re moving pretty quickly through the inflation, disinflation and deflation sequence.

CRE Loans

Again on consumer and commercial real estate here’s the commercial real estate loan application chart.

Commercial Real Estate Defaults

As an aside commercial real estate defaults are at a fourteen year high.

Mortgage Applications

And mortgage loan applications are down significantly.

Case Schiller

Finally the Case Schiller Home Price Index has been contracting for while and is now dropping. This is the first decline in several years.

Manufacturing

Equally important are the manufacturing numbers.

Oil

Correspondingly the commodity of oil is not following the rosy predictions of the International Oil Agency.

Corporate Profits Already In Recession

As an illustration the American Consumer is also not cooperating …corporate profits are in a recession.

Consumer Credit

Another bell weather is total consumer credit.

Consumer Credit Interest Rates Eating Us Alive

And average consumer credit rates are more than 23 percent these days.

Baltic Dry Is Dry

Furthermore when it comes to transportation costs the Baltic Dry index for the far east has deteriorated significantly.

Real GDP

Another indicator is Real GDP.

Money Supply

By all means the most important indicator and noteworthy metric is the actual money supply.

Again this is not a robustly healthy economy.

To be sure if it was I wouldn’t have to do this podcast series.

Economic Cycles Are Not Synchronized

All things considered Doctor Lacy Hunt’s views on the economic cycle are salient. Watch this video.

In conclusion there’s a lot of data to unpack.

Looking Closer

But looking closer might be the best thing we can do for ourselves right now.

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

Nomad-Dollars-Sense-Part2-Bob Davis Podcast 1102

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Inflation-For-Nomads-Bob Davis Podcast 1024

Inflation For Nomads

You might think inflation for nomads is something we don’t think about. However we nomads might be in the best position to deal with inflation. Learn more in Inflation-For-Nomads-Bob Davis Podcast 1024.

Hitting The Road

Firstly I have been hitting the road for extended periods of time since 2014.

Life On That Road Forever

Secondly about a year ago I decided to chuck it all and hit the road permanently.

Will Higher Prices Kill The Vibe?

However as oil and food prices rise some people wonder how long any of us nomads will be able to continue.

Surprise

But it might be surprising to learn I think nomads are in the best position to deal with rising prices.

Disclaimers

Certainly I have some disclaimers in this podcast.

No Politics

That is to say this podcast isn’t about politics.

For example I am not going to tell everyone what ‘the government’ should do to deal with this problem.

System Of Thinking

On the other hand I have been employing a system of thinking about these things that has yielded some observations that can help anyone concerned about rising prices.

What Might Be Going On

Even more I conducted an organized observation of grocery stores and truck stops from coast to coast in the last few months and I learned a few things about what’s going on with consumers.

For Nomads

Finally for nomads the real question is where the most significant price increases are coming from and how long they can last.

Changing Up The Vibe

In short the ‘go where my intuition sends me’ vibe is the first casualty.

What’s The Mission

Moving further along that line of reasoning the only task left for me is the mission for the second full year of nomad life.

Slowing Down

And slowing down the velocity of travel.

Careful Planning

Above all careful planning and controlling expenses suggests nomads can get through this insanity and prevail.

Pollyanna

In conclusion there’s something about then nomad experience that allows us to forget the rest of the world.

For a time.

Reality Breaks In

Every now and then reality breaks through the bliss.

Most importantly this doesn’t have to be a death sentence for the mission or the experience.

Only The Disciplined Can Be Truly Free

In short what is required is a disciplined way of thinking and operating to stay on the road and in the flow.

Inflation-For-Nomads-Bob Davis Podcast 1024

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Shortage-Lies-Damn-Lies-Bob Davis Podcast 1022

Shortage Lies and Damn Lies

Firstly I don’t know whether the shortage predictions will come true at some future date. But what I am hearing on the news doesn’t jibe with what I am seeing all across America. Learn why I say this in Shortage-Lies-Damn-Lies-Bob Davis Podcast 1022.

Might Be Shortages

Secondly I am not saying there aren’t shortages in some places.

Maybe Some Can’t Find What They Want

Even more not saying some people can’t find the things they want.

Above all that all might be true.

My Survey Of Stores In The Southwest

However recently I completed an organized informal survey of several Walmarts in the American Southwest.

A Method To The Madness

Specifically my conclusions are that there are patterns to the empty shelve syndrome we keep seeing on social media.

Inflation?

In addition there are probably two other causes of shortages where they are seen. Both causes seem to make the case for disinflation.

Doom Triggers

Most importantly I think some prognosticators and politicians get a benefit from predicting doom.

No Toys For Christmas!

For example we keep hearing there won’t be any toys for Christmas.

No Candy For Halloween!

Or that Halloween Candy will not be available.

Truth

Firstly the truth is I have been in several stores in Nevada and California in the last two days and there is plenty of Halloween stuff.

Santa’s Loaded Down

In addition the toy and Christmas aisles were jam packed with goods and these same stores.

Trucker Shortage?

But what about the trucker shortage Bob Davis?

Containers Sitting In The Ocean?

Above all what about all those containers sitting in the ocean at the LA Port?

Are We Sure Retailers Want The Containers?

To clarify I personally don’t think a lot of retailers want those containers to be processed and the goods to end up on the shelves. I’ll tell you why in Shortage-Lies-Damn-Lies-Bob Davis Podcast 1022.

Trucking Companies Driver Problem Goes Back Ten Years

And the trucking companies have been complaining about trucker shortages since the early two thousands.

What’s different now?

Mom’s Buying All The Sugar and Flour

Meanwhile what I am seeing fly off the shelves at are staples.

Flour. Sugar. Rice. Syrup.

But Not Honey Nut Cheerios

They’re not even buying Honey Nut Cheerios.

Or Whiskey.

Therefore something else is going on.

Finally these days I don’t like to do controversial subjects. It just ends up being an argument anyway.

But…

I don’t have some deep need to be relevant.

To sum up I’m doing this because all this talk of shortage is not matching what I am seeing in my travels across this country.

It’s All Good

In short from California to Maine and back again I have not been able to find something I need.

Plenty Of Grass Fed Beef

Even more while I have seen the bottom shelves where the sale stuff is empty, I’ve also seen stores packed with consumer goods of all kinds.

In conclusion with the truck stops packed and stores full I am starting to wonder if someone is lying.

Shockingly I always thought you could trust YouTube prep guys and politicians.

Shortage-Lies-Damn-Lies-Bob Davis Podcast 1022

(Editor’s Note: My definition of disinflation is not very good on this podcast. For a great definition click on the word ‘disinflation’ above.)

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