Podcast 491

Raising The Stakes. Screenwriters have a tool they employ to make movies thrilling. It’s called Raising The Stakes. This is where the hero seems to be winning. The detective is close to solving the case, but suddenly he’ll find his office has been broken into and all the evidence stolen. Or, the guy is about the get the girl, but he sees her with another guy. Raising The Stakes is how viewers are kept engaged up to the last moment when the plot comes to a climax. This is exactly how political junkies should view the latest results from Tuesday Night April 26th’s presidential primary preference polls. Donald Trump’s sweep of Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, Connecticut and Rhode Island, the Hillary Clinton’s commanding victories in four of those states over Bernie Sanders raise the stakes. They haven’t won their respective party’s nominations for president yet, but they’re about to. Or are they? Get ready because the mainstream media is about the raise the stakes on you again with the next group of primaries all the way up to the final primaries in June. In this podcast, along with results from all the states for both republicans and democrats, a restatement of my bias in this election cycle; I really can’t stand any of the candidates on either side of the political spectrum, and I am not campaigning for any of them overtly or covertly. I am also not part of the so called ‘objective’ #nevertrump crowd. In fact, I wouldn’t cross the street to meet with any of them. Watch the delegate selection process very closely because the final delegate count is going to be different – maybe very different – from what is advertised on all the 24 hour cable news shows. Watch the Senate races where incumbent republicans are vulnerable (I’ll provide a list in this podcast), because for republicans this is going to have a lot more to do with who the nominee will ultimately be than delegates. If the RNC sees the possibility of losing the senate, there may be some plays called in from the sidelines. Hint; A Trump or Cruz candidacy do nothing for vulnerable republican senators, one of whom happens to be Florida’s Marco Rubio. Remember him? Watch the story lines for the next couple of weeks, because suddenly it’s all about how Trump is inevitable. Again, Raising The Stakes. Chances are this race will go down to the conventions, and there’s still a very good possibility it will be a contested convention on the republican side. On the democrat side, all is not well either. Hillary Clinton may have the lion’s share of delegates and super delegates, but many progressives view Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama as sell-outs. There is tepid support for Mrs. Clinton, which might cause her some problems at her convention and in a subsequent general election if she is the nominee. Stay tuned. It’s just getting interesting. Sponsored by X Government Cars and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul.

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Podcast 487

Confessions of a Delegate. As commentators, political junkies, your next door neighbor and just about everyone speculates about the number of delegates garnered by candidates in the 2016 primary race, I thought it was time to actually talk to one of the delegates to a past convention to get an idea of what it’s like. Thus, Confessions of a Delegate. Mark Johnson was a republican activist supporting Texas Congressman Ron Paul for president in 2012. Johnson was part of the storied Minnesota Delegation, one of five state delegations pledged to support Paul. We’ve all seen the shots on TV from the convention floor. What was it really like to be on the floor at the convention? What was it like to experience the power of the establishment first hand, a republican establishment bound and determined not to allow the Texas Representative a chance to speak to the convention or have his name entered into nomination from the floor. What did the establishment do? They changed the rules before the convention (the now famous rule 40b) and prevented a so called ‘minority report’ on the rules committee from being entered into consideration and voted on, making sure Minority Report author Morton Blackwell’s bus didn’t make it to the convention in time for the vote. The establishment also disqualified the Maine delegation and replaced them with Romney supporters. Why is this important. This fight is nothing compared to what could happen if none of the candidates reach Cleveland with enough delegates pledged to them to achieve a nomination on the first ballot, an outcome which appears more and more likely, an outcome all three remaining candidacies appear to be preparing for. Now ‘retired for the time being’ Johnson talks about his experience and has some advice for the delegates elected to their conventions in 2016. Sponsored by X Government Cars and Pride of Homes and Luke Team Real Estate. (Editor’s note; At one point I refer to what happens when delegates get to ‘Tampa’, since we were talking about Tampa and 2012. I meant to say Cleveland, where the GOP convention will be held in 2016.)

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Podcast 485

The Political Walking Dead. As many are watching the final installment of the current season of ‘The Walking Dead’ results of the Wisconsin primary roll in, making a convincing case for the next season of the Hit AMC Show which might be aptly entitled, “The Political Walking Dead”. Why? With a win for Texas Senator Ted Cruz in Wisconsin, the challenge for Donald J. Trump to get to the magic number of 1237 delegates will be quite difficult. That does not mean that it will be any easier for Cruz – who has a couple hundred less delegates right now than Trump – or Ohio Governor John Kasich, trailing behind front runner, and his close challenger. Meanwhile on the Democrat side, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders’ Wisconsin win might frighten Hillary Clinton (A.K.A Madame Mao) but unless Sanders can make inroads to the so called Super Delegates, he can count himself among The Political Walking Dead; Candidates who are campaigning but have little hope of winning their party’s nominations on a first ballot at their respective conventions. Establishment republicans have already stated their intent to split the delegate count, preventing Trump victories, by working for Kasich and Cruz in states that favor them. Is that what happened in Wisconsin? Don’t count on the pay-for-play media to report on that kind of substance. While there was little doubt about a Cruz victory in Wisconsin, one need only to look at the remaining primaries — which are outlined for you in this podcast — to determine whether they are winner-take-all or proportional states, and count it out. It will be very difficult for any of them to achieve the required plurality of delegates at the Republican Convention in Cleveland this summer. What happens? Very interesting question. Cruz and his supporters claim their campaign has already poached Trump delegates in North Dakota, some southern and midwestern states so their guy will arrive at the convention with the magic number of delegates. The Trump camp disagree.  Meanwhile, if you’re concerned your vote doesn’t count, you’re not alone. A recent poll shows GOP voters think the nominee should be the person who wins the most votes, regardless of the delegate count. By campaigning for delegates after primary elections, these campaigns and the establishment are showing voters they don’t care about their vote. In fact, this is a dirty game of pressuring delegates and getting to the magic number. Who do we blame? What the hell. Blame republicans. They’re the ones that wanted all these lackluster candidates. They’re the ones with no new ideas. They’re the ones that advertised a bad product and allowed a reality TV star to dominate this kind of a circus. And, republican voters who have no idea what they’re for ate it all up with a spoon. As we head for summer, the last few primaries and the mainline party conventions, one thing is for sure. Hijinks, Shenanigans and Surprises will be the order of the day in one of the strangest elections in US history. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul and X Government Cars.

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