Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756

As I do the last two podcasts in the toss up series at the Bob Davis Podcasts, more predictions of a democrat wave are most notable. Are these predictions true? We’ll find out in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756.

Shellacking

In addition to commentators AP reported this week that republican pollsters are telling top republicans they’re in for a shellacking in November.

As a mission of the Bob Davis Podcasts I have been looking at those elections deemed ‘toss ups’ by the experts.

Conventional Wisdom Is Right Until Wrong

Especially relevant is the idea behind the mission. No predictions. Non partisan. What is the situation in these key districts in the final weeks of the election. Readers, subscribers and listeners might be surprised to learn very few public polls exist. Conventional wisdom drives most of these predictions. I detail this for each toss up in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756.

Close Elections Don’t Always Mean Flips

From North Carolina to Texas in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756. Toss up races are simply close elections for whatever reason. Moreover most US House elections are in solid democrat or republican districts. This year some say there are more than 40 districts that will be close. Why they’re close is key.

Open Seats And Changing Geography

In some cases the district is an open seat because of retirements. In other cases, the contours of the district’s geography have changed. What was once a solid republican or democrat district is now supposedly more ‘balanced’.

Everyone Hates Congress…

Finally the real question in the 2018 midterms is whether people will vote their opinions of the president or local concerns. The old saying goes, everyone hates congress but not their congressman.

One Size Fits All Election?

In conclusion I spent a fair amount of time not only looking through the data for these districts but also watching some of the internet and TV ads for candidates. Sometimes it’s hard to tell the republican from the democrat. This is not a one size fits all election even though the media would have its viewers believe it is.

Once I finish this series in this podcast, and the next, I’ll do one more podcast with my analysis since there isn’t much time for that in these podcasts dealing with individual districts.

Sponsored by John D Scott Personal Injury Lawyer and the Water Butler Water Purification Systems

Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756

 

Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 1-Bob Davis Podcast 753

Every two years the entire US House of Representatives has to run for election. The predictions of the prognosticators concerning these elections are most noteworthy. The sages say as many as 58 republican seats are in jeopardy. We’ll find out in a series of podcasts that examine each of these house races in detail. Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 1-Bob Davis Podcast 753.

Predictions Are Dangerous

I hate predictions, Moreover I find while the media loves to ‘nationalize’ house and senate elections most of the time they turn on local issues not the national issues. One of the reasons predictions are often be wrong.

Especially relevant, so many of these races are considered toss ups.

Calibrating The Crystal Ball

There’s only way to determine whether men staring into crystal balls can predict the future. You have to examine each district one at a time.

In part one we look at several districts in California, Colorado, and Florida. More are on the way.

Travel Makes Great Political Analysis

I am happy to say I have been to many of these districts in Mobile Podcast Command. ‘Just passing through’ doesn’t give you some gift for the truth but it does help to visualize. Because I travel I have additional knowledge that is invaluable when it comes to understanding what’s going on in some of these elections.

Pivot Counties Are Well…Pivotal

Similarly it helps to have visited to some of the so called ‘Pivot Counties‘ and to have traveled through areas these guys on TV probably have not seen recently, if ever. It all adds up to the realization that all politics really is local.

New Political Environment?

Because I traveled in 2016 I was able to to realize early on something different was brewing. I think we’re still in a new political environment. All the more reason not to avoid the tarot card readers on TV. Listen to Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 1-Bob Davis Podcast 753 instead.

No Predictions Just Information And a Baseline For You

While I won’t predict anything in 2018 I think it is fair to say we’re in a new environment politically in which almost anything can happen. Moreover whatever is happening may not show up in polls and primary election data.

Isn’t that what makes watching the outcome so much fun?

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Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 1-Bob Davis Podcast 753

2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752

Most people these days don’t dial into elections until after Labor Day. I’m doing a series of podcasts to get you updated on all the so called ‘toss up’ races. Learn more about the Governor’s races in 2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752.

Old Saws Predict Races?

Moreover pundits and statisticians are hell bent for leather to tell you who’s going to win every race. Most noteworthy are the ‘old saws’ of politics. Predictions based on truisms and sayings.

You’re Right Until You’re Wrong

Maybe these old ways of predicting outcomes combined with new data are right. My experience is, they’re right until they’re wrong. I’ll explain in 2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752.

Let The People Decide

Also I believe people should be able to make decisions about who they think is going to win, and who to vote for, without being told who’s going to win three months before election day. Wouldn’t you like to hear some information about this elections without someone telling you who’s going to win? That’s what I do in 2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752.

Local Or National?

For example we’re told that national issues are driving all the races in the 2018 Midterm Elections. Is this true? Or is it possible local issues may be central? In some states taxes and budgets. In others, mining vs environment and business versus agriculture.

States Are Bigger Than You Think

One thing I’ve learned traveling back and forth across this country on two lane roads is the individual states of these United States are very diverse and a lot larger than they look on a map. How does this fact impact the race? Find out in 2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752.

Too Close To Call? Check Again

Finally how many of these races are actually ‘toss ups’. How many contests between gubernatorial candidates really are too close to call? You might be surprised at the answer.

Red or Blue May Not Be

In conclusion the experts say the number of states under partisan party control is important. States are either ‘blue’ or ‘red’. Are all republicans and democrats created equal? Or is the truth somewhere in the middle?

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752

2018 Senate Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 751

These days political coverage turns elections into sporting events. My mission is to provide political coverage without making predictions. Let’s start with the Senate in 2018 Senate Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 751.

November 6th 2018

First of all throughout this podcast I refer to election day as November 7th 2018. In fact it’s November 6th, 2018. Until election day, many of the questions people have about outcomes will remain unanswered. I’ll tell you why.

Statewide Races

Furthermore commentators love to make national predictions. It’s important to remember these are individual state elections. Despite efforts by the media to make you think these are national elections, they aren’t. They’re local elections. Find out more in 2018 Senate Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 751.

The Stakes Are High

Especially relevant are the stakes. The future of Donald Trump’s presidency is in the balance with these Midterm Elections regardless of the local and national issues driving them.  Much of the coverage of the 2018 midterm elections hinges on this truth.

Key Races

What it comes down to are about 6 or 7 key races in various states around the country. As we get closer to election day (November 6th 2018, by the way) the line up of so called toss up races might change.

Holding The Majority

Republicans currently hold 50 seats in the US Senate with one vacant seat. Democrats hold 48. 2 Independents caucus with democrats giving them 49 votes potentially. With Vice President Mike Pence, the republicans can count on a 51 seat majority.

Arizona’s governor will appoint a replacement for the late John McCain, giving the republicans a potential 52 vote majority.

Will republicans hold that majority?

Making Useless Predictions

Finally I am so tired of hearing these know it alls making predictions based on primary vote results and conventional wisdom. As you’ll hear in 2018 Senate Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 751 polling is pretty thin in some key races. It’s about time someone covered the story without telling you who’s going to win.

Trump’s Twitter Feed

In conclusion we’ll cover about 7 senate races worth talking about. Will the president’s twitter feed and rally machine help republicans or hurt them?

As far as predictions, I remember a sports writer’s response when I asked him which team was going to win the big game Sunday. He said “That’s why we play the game!”

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating Of Saint Paul

2018 Senate Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 751

 

Trump-Cognitive-Dissonance-Chaos-On-Border-Pure-Genius-Podcast-733

Time to talk about the elephant in the room. These days Trump gets better and better at causing a hurricane then standing in the eye of the storm. Find out why in Trump-Cognitive-Dissonance-Chaos-On-Border-Pure-Genius-Podcast-733.

Children Detained Since 2014

First of all everyone now knows some details about the children of illegal immigrants being detained at the border. Pictures of children in cells from the Obama era have been around since 2014. At the root of these detainments is something called ‘Flores‘.

Trump Promises Trump Delivers

President trump made two promises specific to Immigration during his 2016 campaign. Trump said he wanted to build a wall on the southern border and that he would enforce immigration laws if he became president.

Media Firestorm

Due to enforcement efforts and the courts, there’s a new batch of kids on the border. Welcome to the latest media firestorm.

Plenty of Blame To Go Around

While there are two sides to every story there’s plenty of blame to go around on this one. Find out why in Trump-Cognitive-Dissonance-Chaos-On-Border-Pure-Genius-Podcast-733.

A Public Relations Nightmare? Not So Fast

Democrats and Republicans agree on one thing. This is a travesty and a public relations nightmare for the US. Is it the same for the president?

Finally Trump retreated and used his favorite means of ‘legislation’. He issued an executive order, to keep detained families together.

Another Trump Stunt

Especially relevant here are officials within the Trump administration who have argued for years this kind of stunt is just what the doctor ordered to get congress to act.

Immigration Law And Texas History

In Trump-Cognitive-Dissonance-Chaos-On-Border-Pure-Genius-Podcast-733 some history of immigration law and the southern US Border in Texas. In addition some details on the ‘Flores Decision’ which is central to this issue.

How Would We Solve This?

More important, what do we think of this issue as citizens? How would we solve this problem? Most noteworthy is the fact that Americans do not agree on this issue. At all.

Cognitive Dissonance

Finally, these kinds of stunts on both sides of the so called political divide don’t solve anything. This is what Trump wants. When you add emotion to the mix no matter what new information comes to light, people only fight harder for their original position.

Midterm Elections

Republican voters don’t care about their local candidates in the midterm elections. They care about Donald Trump. My sense is the president figures whatever it takes to get the so called republican core off their asses and to the polls is good enough. Besides, we’ll all forget about kids in jails after the next stunt, coming to a television near you soon.

Trump In The Eye Of A Storm He Created

In the final analysis, this kind of thing works politically, until it doesn’t. Trump can stand in the eye of the storm. He can be proud of not knowing all the details, until one of these days he causes a real crisis.

Until then. Enjoy the party.

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul and Reliafund Payment Processors

Trump-Cognitive-Dissonance-Chaos-On-Border-Pure-Genius-Podcast-733

 

 

 

 

Minnesota Road Trip-Progressives-History-Politics-Duluth 2018-Podcast 727

These days one of the things you learn on a road trip is how big the United States is. Then, how big individual states are. Finally the traveler discovers how each state is different. In Minnesota Road Trip-Progressives-History-Politics-Duluth 2018-Podcast 727.

Get Off The Interstate

Most noteworthy is what happens when you get off the Interstate and onto the back roads. That’s when you really see how it is.

Covering Politics In 2018

2018 is an election year. I said I would cover the Minnesota political scene this year. The first stop is the Minnesota State Republican Convention. Duluth. On the shores of Lake Superior.

Minnesota History

Furthermore some of the state’s old hands don’t know Minnesota’s unique social and political history. We’ll discover it together in Minnesota Road Trip-Progressives-History-Politics-Duluth 2018-Podcast 727.

Town Hall Is In Our Blood

Sure, we know our pioneer history. Especially relevant is the unique history of political grass roots and town hall style representation.

Minnesota’s first settlers were New Englanders and New Yorkers. They brought town halls with them. Later immigrants from Scandinavia, Germany and Ireland formed the bedrock of so called ‘progressive‘ politics in the state. Therefore, those ideas are still with us.

Yes Republicans Were Progressives and Populists Too

In addition while some people assume progressive politics these days is only the political left, republicans too have a long history of progressivism. Find out in Minnesota Road Trip-Progressives-History-Politics-Duluth 2018-Podcast 727.

Tim Pawlenty Tries To Derail Caucus Process

Will the grassroots system survive in Minnesota? Former republican Governor Tim Pawlenty isn’t attending because he’ll be clinking crystal with rich guys at the Minneapolis Club. Pawlenty’s operatives will push the convention to refuse to endorse a candidate for governor. This is the main issue in Duluth this weekend.

Do We Really Want To Dump The Town Hall?

Moreover populists and progressives go back to the roots of Minnesota Republicans and democrats. Probably a big part of that process has been town hall style politics in the caucus system. Most of all do we really want to get rid of it?

Surprises In This Podcast

In conclusion as I researched this podcast I learned a few surprising facts. I think you will too.

(EDITOR’S NOTE: Two things. First, it’s not 35W heading to Duluth, it’s just 35 North. Being a Twin Citiean, I have to get on 35W before 35 North. Second, for some reason I thought the State DFL convention – the democrats – was being held in Rochester, Minnesota the week after the Republican Convention in Duluth. Once again those sneaky democrats have managed to slip out of my grasp. It’s in the 40’s in Duluth and the 80’s in Rochester. Given the quality of the speeches in Duluth this weekend, I wish I had gone to Rochester!)

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

Minnesota Road Trip-Progressives-History-Politics-Duluth 2018-Podcast 727

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

How Content In Bob Davis Podcasts Gives Greater Insight-Podcast 720

As the host of over 720 podcasts I have trouble remembering the insights I have stumbled across. In fact many of these podcasts remain relevant. We’ll talk about it in How Content In Bob Davis Podcasts Gives Greater Insight-Podcast 720.

Partisan Coverage Is Killing Us

The heavily partisan nature of media these days has been a theme in these podcasts. I spent some time on my own website the other day and what I found surprised me. Much of it was prescient or oddly predictive.

No Predictions

Now, I can’t stand political commentators that try to predict outcomes. I actually try to avoid predicting outcomes. Thing is, when a person travels thousands of miles on backroads across this country as I have, there’s a huge takeaway. I’ll tell you about it in How Content In Bob Davis Podcasts Gives Greater Insight-Podcast 720.

Content Content Content

Moreover I have been doing a number of tightly focused podcasts packed with content lately.

No One Trusts Traditional Media

Talk radio, cable television news, even new media these days, is focused on pushing a point of view. What’s more the national media, broadcast media, and mainstream media might be missing a big shift when it comes to voters.

When it comes to issues, my use of source material and research pays off for subscribers and listeners. In addition going to the story in Mobile Podcast Command has made a huge difference in broadening my perspective.

How To Find Information On My Website

Time for a podcast that details some of the older podcasts and explains how to use the search capability on my site to go back and find some stories you might not have heard.

From The Pipeline To The California Coast

From the pipeline protest to covering the 2016 primary races in Iowa, North Carolina and Florida. Or, reading the tax bill to breaking down all the toss up House and Senate races, I don’t tell you what to think or who to vote for. I give you the lay of the land and let you make your own judgements.

Not Just Politics

In conclusion there are many more insights that come from travel and detailed study that have nothing to do with politics and they are in these podcasts too. I’ve focused on the political stuff in this podcast for the junkies out there, but anyone can use the search window and other features to find podcasts about life in general. I find I like some of those the best.

Citizen Journalism

How does a citizen journalist or podcaster contribute in a hurricane of information? Find out in How Content In Bob Davis Podcasts Gives Greater Insight-Podcast 720.

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

How Content In Bob Davis Podcasts Gives Greater Insight-Podcast 720

 

 

Father Son Discuss Universal Basic Income In USA-Podcast 700

Hard to believe I have done 700 podcasts. I can’t think of a better guest for podcast 700 than my son. Join us in Father Son Discuss Universal Basic Income In USA-Podcast 700.

Father And Son Don’t Do Small Talk

Andrew Davis has his own You Tube Channel and is working in TV in New York City. Both father and son have always shared an interest in issues. We don’t do small talk.

Universal Basic Income

The City of Stockton California has recently voted to give citizens a universal basic income.

A no strings attached check from the government every month

Father and son discuss the issue and more in Father Son Discuss Universal Basic Income In USA-Podcast 700.

Growing Up In A Media Family

Andrew was raised in the fun and chaos of a media family. Dad did radio. Mom did TV. When he started showing interest we were concerned, since we knew the chaos of working in media.

In addition, with him growing up in edit bays and radio studios we really weren’t surprised. Friends said, “What did you expect him to do?” Consequently discussion of his career choice takes up the first part of Father Son Discuss Universal Basic Income In USA-Podcast 700.

Podcaster and You Tuber Discuss “The Side Hustle”

Learning how to podcast and do a You Tube channel from the ground up is no small feat. My son is now working in television in New York City which gives him time and resources to devote to what he calls his ‘side hustle‘. The Millennial Project YouTube Channel.

These days Andrew’s talking about something called A Universal Basic Income. Both right wing and left wing politicos are talking about a government provided basic income.

Misconceptions about trade and Artificial Intelligence and Robotic production terrify the working men and women of this country. What’s more, populist politicians may use the Universal Basic Income to leverage votes in key districts and states in the next presidential election and perhaps before.

Get a leg up. Watch The Millennial Project video here and listen to Father Son Discuss Universal Basic Income In USA-Podcast 700 to find out more about this issue.

Sponsored by Reliafund and Ciro 3D Motorcycle Products and Accessories

Father Son Discuss Universal Basic Income In USA-Podcast 700

Comedy Is A Funny Business-Joleen Lunzer-Podcast 686

On any given weekend in this country local comedy clubs are full. Comedy TV shows and tours are big business. Breaking in to the comedy business, though, is no joke. Find out why in Comedy Is A Funny Business-Joleen Lunzer-Podcast 686.

Doing What You Love Is The Hardest Thing

Moreover, one of the themes of the Bob Davis Podcasts is following your passion. Sometimes doing what you love is the hardest thing. When it comes to the entertainment business, stand up comedy has to be one of the most difficult pursuits to succeed in.

Comedy Is Big Business

Sure. We all know the stars of comedy. Especially relevant is the fact that there are many comedians in the business enjoying success and working their way up. My friend Joleen Lunzer is one of them. Writer. Podcaster. Blogger. Stand Up. Meet her in Comedy Is A Funny Business-Joleen Lunzer-Podcast 686.

Grounded in Saint Paul

Now living in Los Angeles, Joleen has barnstormed across the world and has been a resident stand up in Minneapolis and Saint Paul, Phoenix and Las Vegas. While there are many in the business with an LA or New York orientation, Lunzer’s roots in Saint Paul and the midwest keep her grounded when it comes to what’s funny.

Politics In Comedy

These days doing stand up can be a political minefield. How do you play to an audience full of people from different political tribes and still have a good time? We talk about it in Comedy Is A Funny Business-Joleen Lunzer-Podcast 686.

Still A Minnesota Wild Fan

Finally, following your passion can be a challenge. There are some good nuts and bolts lessons for future writers, podcasters and comedians in this podcast. The main takeaway? Maintaining your roots, especially if you’re from the midwest, can help you through the hard parts. By the way, Joleen is still a Minnesota Wild fan.

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Comedy Is A Funny Business-Joleen Lunzer-Podcast 686

Sunny Lohmann ANTIFA-Tipping-Fashion-Life-Podcast 678

What happens when two podcasters get together? We crosspost! Sunny Lohmann of The House of Sunny joins me to talk about ANTIFA, fashion, life and more in Sunny Lohmann ANTIFA-Tipping-Fashion-Life-Podcast 678. Part 1 and Part 2 of this marathon video podcast can be found here, and here.

You Tube

Sunny has been doing You Tube since 2010 and is now starting an audio podcast. You Tube and Podcasting have changed a lot since the early days. These days, You Tube and Podcasting has become more competitive, with better video, categories and better content. How does a You Tuber or a podcaster grow in this environment.

Winning With Content

Content is still king when it comes to getting viewers and listeners. Especially relevant is the question of what content works these days. Political content in general does not have the traction it used to have. We talk about why in Sunny Lohmann ANTIFA-Tipping-Fashion-Life-Podcast 678.

Media Bias

These days we hear a lot of complaints about broadcast TV shows like SNL about bias. Discussed on this podcast is the idea that these shows actually don’t have great ratings. To remain relevant, especially with younger viewers, broadcast TV shows are posting You Tube clips. Moreover huge percentages of people now say they get their news from social media.

Political Correctness Has Ruined Comedy?

In Sunny Lohmann ANTIFA-Tipping-Fashion-Life-Podcast 678 Sunny talks about political correctness in comedy. In her view, comedians cease being funny when they start worrying about whether what they say will be permissible. Artists lose their way trying to be relevant to an audience. Artists have to take risks, especially in comedy.

The Content Minefield

So many scolds are so quick to attack these days on both sides of the political spectrum. The result is a minefield any content creator will eventually wander into. We wonder whether the best thing is to go direct to the audience and consumer with your own channels and podcasts. How does a YouTuber or podcaster navigate around content control algorithms?

Relevance

Finally we talk about how the former mainstream political content giants have ceased to be relevant, chiefly among them AM Talk Radio, which we both agree is unlistenable these days. A good lesson for the tech giants, which are more vulnerable to competition than many critics realize.

Sponsored by Reliafund and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

Sunny Lohmann ANTIFA-Tipping-Fashion-Life-Podcast 678