Art-Of-Politics-Polling-Prediction-Bob Davis Podcast 935

Updating Current Political Polls

Firstly Art-Of-Politics-Polling-Prediction-Bob Davis Podcast 935 is part of a series of podcasts updating current polls for 2020.

No Blanket Statements

Secondly I tend to avoid blanket statements when it comes to political polls.

Politics is An Art

Finally I believe despite all the technology we have politics is still an art.

No Silver Bullet For Predictions

Even more there is no application or spreadsheet that can ‘predict’ an outcome based on polls.

Probabilities

In short we can only look at probabilities.

Snapshots

Polls are snapshots in real time.

Shocking Confusion When It Comes To Polls

Meanwhile pundits and commentators continue to display a shocking confusion when it comes to understanding political polling.

Out and Out Bias

Most importantly some are ‘in the tank’ for one or the other candidate.

National Polls A Disservice To Supporters of Both Candidates

Consequently all of this political chatter and predictions does a disservice to supporters of all candidates.

Your Own Reality Check

On the other hand what if I can show you how to do your own reality check on your smart phone whenever you hear some wild prediction of a ‘landslide’ for either candidate.

That’s what Art-Of-Politics-Polling-Prediction-Bob Davis Podcast 935 is all about.

Still All About Showing Up

In conclusion if we have learned anything over the years, it is politics still belongs to those who show up.

State By State Battleground

Working hard down to the election is always the best approach. National polls are useless as the popular vote does not determine the presidency in the US.

Stay With The Bob Davis Podcasts

To sum up stay with me for a clear eyed view of the state by state polling results so that you’re not shocked and surprised on election night. Anything is possible, but right now it’s still a close race.

(Editor’s Note: As I recorded this podcast new polls were being released and results uploaded. As of the date of this post, the new polls have not changed my conclusion that 2020 will be close based on tight races in battleground states. I’ll do another podcast after the next spate of polls and we’ll see how things change. The good news is, if you listen to this podcast you’ll know how to update yourself when new polls come out.)

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Art-Of-Politics-Polling-Prediction-Bob Davis Podcast 935

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Media-Distorts-Poll-Results-Again-Bob Davis Podcast 932

Media Back To Its Old Tricks

Firstly the media is back to its old tricks. They are showing a shocking level of ignorance when it comes to political polls. Learn in Media-Distorts-Poll-Results-Again-Bob Davis Podcast 932.

Predicting The Future. Again.

Secondly we should be suspicious of a media with a penchant for predicting the future.

No Partisan Coverage of Election 2020 Here

More importantly I have avoided partisan criticism of the president. In addition I have refused to engage in the same kind of misinformation when it comes to potential presidential candidates. Now you understand why.

No Partisan Issue Advocacy Here Either

Moreover I refuse to advocate for partisan issues or tell listeners and subscribers what to think.

Political Polling Coverage

Therefore I am starting my political coverage of presidential polling for 2020.

State By State Reports

To clarify from time to time I will do some podcasts discussing recent polling on a state by state basis.

Ignorant Story Lines

Truth is, the story lines being created now may or may not be the eventual result. I’ll explain why in Media-Distorts-Poll-Results-Again-Bob Davis Podcast 932.

All About The Electoral Vote

Even more we choose our presidents through the electoral college. We do not vote directly for the office of president in the United States.This reality forces presidential campaigns to develop electoral strategies.

Divided? Really?

Above all we keep hearing how the United States has become a ‘divided’ country. It’s the Blue States against the Red States.

County By County Vote Totals

But county by county vote totals show the votes are often ‘blue’ or ‘red’ by pluralities, not majorities.

National Presidential Polls Are Useless

Finally citing national popularity polls, presidential job approval polls, or even national political preference is little more than a waste of time.

Another Close Contest, So Far…

In conclusion, the 2020 presidential race at this time looks like another close contest. Unless that reality changes it’s going to come down to some key states.

Still Not A Lot Of Polling Data For Battleground States

Meanwhile polling data is not available for all the so called battleground states.

Fantasy Reporting

In short don’t believe everything you hear.

(Editor’s Note: I refer to both candidates running as ‘presidents’. Obviously I meant President Trump and former Vice President Biden. In addition at the time of recording of this podcast results of the Iowa US Senate Primary had not been released. Due to this, no polls were available on the race. The primary was held on June 2nd, 2020. I said no democrat had yet been selected in the Iowa US Senate Race, which includes Senator Joni Ernst as the republican incumbent. This was true at the time. Now Ernst has a democratic opponent. For the results go here.)

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Media-Distorts-Poll-Results-Again-Bob Davis Podcast 932

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Blood-In-The-Streets-Yet?-Bob Davis Podcast 909

Blood In The Streets

First of all the phrase ‘blood in the streets’ means you buy when everything goes to hell, learn more in Blood-In-The-Streets-Yet?-Bob Davis Podcast 909. Second of all you have to wonder if we’re getting to that point.

Predicting The Future Is For Suckers

I don’t like predicting the future. I like to wait and see what happens and consequently make judgements.

Streets Are Sensitive To Shocks

On the other hand word travels fast these days. We’re very sensitive to shock. We often are responding at the same time leaders are responding. Long before any in depth facts can be determined.

Perception Is Reality

Moreover in this environment the old saw ‘Perception Is Reality‘ is more true than ever.

Wait and See

I am often asked what I think of some political development. Joe Biden’s ‘sudden surge’. The ‘Super Tuesday‘ results. I still think ‘wait and see’ is the best approach.

Markets Rule The Roost Right Now

Especially relevant now is the course Coronavirus will take. More importantly the economic effects triggered by the real time reactions to the virus.

Each Podcast Needs Clarification

I have been podcasting about just these topics. Furthermore it seems like each podcast needs more clarification.

Primaries and Candidates

In Blood-In-The-Streets-Yet?-Bob Davis Podcast 909 there’s clarification and amplification. There is also most noteworthy additional thoughts about the primaries and potential presidential candidates.

It’s A Long Way To November

Finally we have a long way to go until early November when we actually vote for candidates and initiatives in local, state, house and senate elections. And when we cast our preference for president.

Electoral College Or Congress?

Even more it will be mid December when the electoral college will choose a president. Or, God forbid, the US Congress. A lot can happen between now and then.

About That Blood In The Streets Question

Maybe it would be better to return to the question at the beginning of this blog. Is there blood in the streets yet? And what does it mean.

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Blood-In-The-Streets-Yet?-Bob Davis Podcast 909

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