Podcast 569-Final State by State Round Up. Where the state polls stand for presidential candidates right before election day 2016. This podcast does not endorse a candidate. I will not make you feel good or bad about your vote, or non vote. I will not attach ‘indexes’ and ‘percentage probabilities’ to potential wins or losses for the candidates. In Podcast 569-Final State by State Round Up, how candidates fare in each of the states according to existing polls. Partisan and advocacy journalists don’t provide insight on survey research. I do. What you’re getting from the cable news channels and advocacy news ‘websites’ are charlatans pushing their point of view. Fact is, no one knows how the election will play out in any of the so called battleground states. That’s because despite all the best effort, even the best political researchers are challenged to determine who is actually going to show up to vote especially when the polls show a close vote, within the margins of error. Elections are made on who votes. Not the number of signs. Not the number of people who show up at rallies. Not who ran the best TV spots. It’s all about getting the vote out. Once the vote is in, it’s all about counting. Is the election rigged? In a sense, yes. The United States is a representative republic which elects its executive not by the popular vote but through an institution known as the Electoral College. Some states’ electoral slates are proportionally chosen. Some states select electoral slates by party. The electors themselves have already been chosen. They will actually select the President of the United States on December 15th, 2016. In some states the popular vote determines how the electors are ‘supposed’ to vote. In some states it depends on which party’s candidate wins the overall vote. No so called ‘rogue elector‘ has ever been prosecuted for voting outside the state statute guidelines. In the event of an electoral tie, the election will be decided by the US House of Representatives. One thing is true, the republicans are the ones talking about ‘rigged’ elections right now, but if Donald Trump wins the presidency they’ll stop talking about that immediately and the democrats will start talking about things being ‘rigged’. The only thing coverage of these kinds of conspiracies do is reduce the faith Americans and the rest of the world has in the electoral process. In reality, ‘rigging’ a national election is a difficult task, despite what movies and conspiracy theorists say. If you are concerned about your candidate winning the election, the best thing you can do is turn off the TV and get out and help them win by driving people to the polls or making last minute calls, poll watching, or if you’re qualified, volunteering as an election judge. Thankfully we’ll be looking at election night results in the next podcast. Sponsored by Hydrus Performance and Brush Studio, in the West End, Saint Louis Park.
Podcast 563-Bob Davis Podcast Radio Show-49. Father and Son Collaboration. New segments for Podcast 563-Bob Davis Podcast Radio Show-49. Original content for Bob Davis Podcasts Subscribers. In this show, you’ll hear discussion of the election so far. With the next scheduled state by state poll roundup podcast at the end of October and again just before the election we try to deal with substance in this show. Trump’s response in the debate to Chris Wallace’s question about abiding by the results of the general election on November 8th doesn’t come up. While we reacted to the statement in the debate, we’re both so focused on policy we didn’t think to talk about it in the show. The explosion of election and democracy issue the last few days shows the hysteria surrounding simple statements made by candidates. If you attempt to clarify a statement suddenly you’re “in the tank” for one of the candidates. Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are adults and they can defend themselves without so called journalists, surrogates and talking heads telling us what the candidate ‘intended’ to say. Live from Los Angeles we talk about Los Angeles city issues, Trump’s foreign and economic policy and Andrew’s reaction as a Millennial to both candidates in the debate. While Trump is two or more points below Clinton in some of the key states, I bring up the wild card probability for the New York Developer to win the election. Could the pundits and the pollsters and so called ‘experts’ be wrong? We also look at Clinton and Trump claims concerning the economy, foreign policy, and their approach to governing. Political junkies should find welcome relief in this podcast from rhetoric because we deal with substantive issues. Old thinking, New Thinking, foreign affairs and policy, defense policy, economics and and rhetorical flourishes of the candidates. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing of Saint Paul and Hydrus Performance.
Podcast 520-Bob Davis Podcasts Radio Show-33. Heading into the the US Independence Day Holiday. The British Exit Vote Fallout and the potential for a Black Swan event are covered extensively in Podcast 520-Bob Davis Podcasts Radio Show-33 with new original content and excerpts from this week’s podcasts. Oddly enough the ‘mother country’, Great Britain, declared her own independence with the vote to exit the Euro Zone just over a week ago. In an echo of British reaction to the colonies’ declaration of independence in 1776, the unelected suzerains of the European Union were first shocked, then angry. Media reaction to the British vote shifted from hysterical to hostile. Let’s not forget that coverage of the vote did not detail the contours of the issue. There was very little reporting, before the vote, on which trade agreements the UK has with the EU might be effected, the fact that the vote is not binding, or how the UK might invoke the Lisbon Treaty in preparation for an exit. On the business side of the equation, all Americans heard was that the markets were crashing and it would be the end of the world, financially speaking. Slightly more than a week later, markets are recovering as buying opportunities abound. Here’s another example of a situation where the media fails to cover an event, other than to ‘predict’ the outcome of a vote, and then loses its head once an outcome it did not predict, occurs. In this review of the week’s podcast and the week’s news, two segments are devoted to reaction to the British Vote and what it might mean. Some Americans might be surprised to learn that the implications of the British vote aren’t limited just to the UK, but also include countries and people everywhere that feel the heavy weight of government on their backs. A ‘government’ always there to cure all that ails us, never has to explain its incompetence. Maybe this is what voters in Britain might be saying. With all the shouting and screaming and pounding, the telling you want to think, how to act and what you ‘should’ and ‘should not’ do, it might be a good time to take stock and spend some time with your family. How many people have this feeling that another shoe is about to drop. What is the possibility of a Black Swan Event? An historic event with the power to influence politics and society far into the future? Despite all the conspiracy theories about the people in charge maybe the truth is, they really don’t have a clue what they’re doing which is actually pretty frightening? So enjoy your burgers and beer, pretzels and family. If we are on the verge of a major event, we’ll look back on the summer of 2016 as that moment in time before everything changed.
Off The Rails. As we head into the long fourth of July weekend, world events aren’t taking the weekend off. On the heels of the British Exit vote, comes the Istanbul attack. Apparently we now live in an upside down world where speech is considered so dangerous, Nigel Farage’s speech to the European Union Parliament – an unelected body – can be considered hate speech, while an actor accepting an award in the United States — where free speech is a constitutional right — considers opinions opposite to his own on race to be so dangerous those who speak them should ‘sit down and shut up’. Then, inexplicably, in the wake of obvious ISIS style terror attacks in Istanbul, Secretary of State Kerry warns people not to rush to judgement on whether ISIS is involved or not. So let me get this straight. Speech is more dangerous than men with AK-47’s wearing suicide vests? Moreover, the Republican standard bearer – so far – is a trade protectionist who wants to double down on the Bush Steel Tariff debacle, republicans including a former president, are endorsing the ‘presumptive’ democratic nominee while Bernie Sanders of all people came off as the most reasonable person in Washington this week when he warned democrats to heed the results of the British Vote for what it might mean to ‘establishment’ politicians like Hillary Clinton. Off The Rails you say? Hell yes. There is a palpable feeling that all this is leading up to a major event; something that cannot be foreseen that changes everything: The stock market crash of 1929, Pearl Harbor, the JFK assassination, the fall of the Berlin Wall, and 9-11. World changing events after which you say, “Remember what things were like back in…? It’s so different now.” Have you ever been lost hiking? At some point you look up and say, “Where the Hell am I?”. Its feels like that kind of a moment in the world right now. How did we get here? What happens now? A late night podcast from the deck, examining these issues, but not too deeply. It is after all the 4th of July weekend, let’s party like it’s 2016. Sponsored by Brush Studio in the West End, and X Government Cars.
Skyfall. Last week’s vote by Britain to exit the European Zone provoked some of the most hysterical media coverage of an international news story I’ve seen in a long time. To begin with, there was little detailed coverage before the vote. Things we would need to know after the vote, like whether it was binding, how long it would take to negotiate an exit, what trade agreements might be effected, the defense agreements Britain has with other nations, the economic condition of the EU, Britain’s economic contribution to the EU in general, the percentage of the UK’s GDP accounted for in European Trade and so on. Then there is the issue of the world media being ‘on board’ with the remain vote, or at the very least reporting the story line that ‘leave’ would not pass. Consequently, no one was more surprised by a leave vote victory than the perfumed princes sitting in their air conditioned studios. If Skyfall was the fictional last resort of the embattled James Bond in the movie of the same name, watching anchors and pundits tear their hair out, one would think England is heading to Skyfall as we speak! Perhaps the EU’s unelected ‘leaders’ should be the ones heading to Skyfall. ‘Markets Crash’, the media moaned. From a distance, one might be forgiven for believing ‘The End Of The World’ is indeed near. Better head to Skyfall as a last resort! All is lost. The Leave Victory has jostled the carefully constructed ‘citizen of the world’ senses of a younger generation that apparently does not know the world existed before the EU. Well, the truth is the markets will regain their composure. In fact the British Pound recovered to pre-vote levels the Friday after the vote. It’s a tough thing to hear, but the EU has had problems for some time now, specifically the EURO, as southern Europe’s spendthrift policies have led them to demand relief from Northern Europe. Add to that trouble with the ECB, unpopular regulation and a failure to do anything about the Syrian refugee problem, and one wonders whether the EU hadn’t better clean up its act. Maybe Merry Old England delivered a slap in the face to the velvet suited technocrats, so they would go about getting their proverbial act together. Yes, there are real concerns going forward; What trade deals have to be renegotiated? While defense pacts like NATO really aren’t subject to EU control, there are concerns about defense issues and what about the idea of a strong European Community to foster cooperation and peace, to serve as a counterweight to an expansionist Russia, as well as China. There’s a lot to be worked out, but it isn’t the end of the world. The fact is, we are entering a new time, a new day, with new ideas and concerns. People may not have the language to describe their discontent and even disgust with over controlling governments, the edicts of unelected technocrats who spite ‘the great unwashed’, at their peril. When the winds of change blow, electorates have a funny habit of unpredictably lowering the boom on the haughty and confident. A new day indeed. Sponsored by Karow Contracting and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul.