Nocturnal-Thoughts-Seasonal Changes-Bob Davis Podcast 867

Nocturnal-Thoughts-Seasonal Changes-Bob Davis Podcast 867

Night Owls Unite

I am a night person. Always was and will be. These days though it’s getting ridiculous. Staying up really late for a free wheeling talker in Nocturnal-Thoughts-Seasonal Changes-Bob Davis Podcast 867.

Extreme Night Person Here

Anyone who knows me is well aware of my scheduling extremes. Especially relevant are the changes I go through when the seasons change. Suddenly also Minnesotans are beginning to get scratchy throats and head colds. Here it comes.

Schedule Flip and SAD Light

First of all, sometimes I stay up so late I end up coming back around. This is what I call schedule flip. Then use something called a SAD light to reset my body clock. During this process I am in schedule hell. Staying up late and waking up too early.

Texts From Friends

Second as I am in the midst of this sleep schedule nightmare I am getting texts from friends. “Did you cover the Trump Rally?“, they want to know. So, unfortunately I have to address these questions in Nocturnal-Thoughts-Seasonal Changes-Bob Davis Podcast 867.

Dumpster Fire News

Because if I have learned anything traveling across the country and covering primaries and caucuses it is that the media loves a dumpster fire. Certainly Minneapolis did not disappoint, with dueling enthusiastic supporters of the president and protesters.

Traveling And Reporting

Above all it looks to me like the question, “Is It News?” hasn’t occurred to anyone. Certainly nothing wrong with getting a bunch of people together to collect email data and campaign contributions and to have something to post on social media. That goes for both sides in these cartoon political times.

Real News? Funny, Right?

Meanwhile the real news? Not getting addressed and ‘bubbling under’ when it comes to real coverage. The situation with Turkey and the Kurds. Stories about the Repo markets and federal reserve returning to a form of quantitative easing you would think would be unnecessary, what with the booming economy.

Talk It Out

Consequently it’s time to just talk it out. Kind of a transition between some of my heavily researched recent podcasts.

Summer’s Long Goodbye

As a result it’s a long goodbye to a great summer and the difficult transition to fall in this podcast. And considering my sleep schedule please don’t fact check on this one!

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Nocturnal-Thoughts-Seasonal Changes-Bob Davis Podcast 867

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Trumpers-Think-Political-Polls-Lie-Bob Davis Podcast 862

Trumpers-Think-Political-Polls-Lie-Bob Davis Podcast 862

Republicans Hate Polls…Unless They Show Trump In The Lead

There’s so much bias these days on every media platform there’s no trust. A conversation with a republican friend lead to this podcast about whether polls lie. Find out more by listening to Trumpers-Think-Political-Polls-Lie-Bob Davis Podcast 862.

Who Did The Poll?

First of all when it comes to polling, the first question a republican will ask is, “Who did the poll”. Especially if it reflects poorly on the president. In addition their second favorite response is, “No One Called Me”. Gah!

What Poll Will You Accept?

In contrast I wonder, “What poll would you accept?“.

Polling Explained. Again.

It’s time again to explain polling and the potential for a republican win or loss in 2020.

No bias or predictions. Just the lay of the land.

Accept and Consider Information Challenging Your Position

Above all political true believers reject any poll that doesn’t show their guy winning. Even more, political analysis requires accepting and considering information that challenges you.

Approval Ratings 101

In Trumpers-Think-Political-Polls-Lie-Bob Davis Podcast 862 front and center are approval ratings and their ability to predict winners.

Past Elections

Moreover I’ll look at how you can use polls to make solid judgements. I’ll also talk about the history of past elections as a tool.

Polls Don’t Lie … The Media Lies

Not only do I reject the assertion the polls “lie”. When averaged they can be quite predictive.

Unfortunately the wholesale ignorance of polling in our media is especially relevant. For Example, while the polls in 2016 showed a close race for president, they never predicted a Clinton win.

Trump Struggles In The Battleground States

Finally at issue are tracking polls showing the president’s approval rating in battleground states plummeting. With manufacturing reportedly in recession in Wisconsin and Michigan, republican bosses are concerned. They should be. Trump has to win the battleground states to win a second term.

A Republican Siding With The UAW?

Perhaps it is for that reason that the president is rumored to want to intervene in a current GM strike, in favor of the UAW.

History And No Judgements

Therefore this podcast is valuable because it looks at chances for both a landslide as well as a tough race, without judgements and predictions. There’s a lot of information here about past presidential races, the history of polling and approval ratings. It might come in handy.

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Trumpers-Think-Political-Polls-Lie-Bob Davis Podcast 862

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War-Rumors-Iran-Trump-Bob Davis Podcast 832

War-Rumors-Iran-Trump-Bob Davis Podcast 832

Presidential Election Ahead…Cue The War Drums

War and rumors of war. This time between the United States and Iran. These days you don’t know what’s real. We’ll talk about it in War-Rumors-Iran-Trump-Bob Davis Podcast 832.

The Devil’s In The Details

In addition I’ll provide details and perspective you don’t get from breathless cable news channels, talk radio and advocate commentators. Once a crisis develops advocacy media will try to convince viewers for or against.

Complicated Issues

Iran is a much more complicated issue.

First of all, at issue is the so called JCPOA. The Joint Comprehensive Plan Of Action.

The JCPOA was signed by all five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Iran during the Obama administration.

Moreover in exchange for Iranians giving up weapons grade uranium some US and European sanctions dating back forty years were temporarily waived.

The Worst Deal Ever…Might Have Been Working

In 2016 republican presidential candidate Donald Trump campaigned on getting rid of the JCPOA calling it ‘the worst deal I’ve ever seen’. In contrast some  sources say Iran was actually abiding by that agreement. By the way, the deal Trump signed with North Korea recently pledging to de-nuclearize the Korean Peninsula was in fact a communique like the JCPOA, with fewer conditions.

Trump Imposes Sanctions

No matter. President Trump has taken the US out of the deal and imposed sanctions last year. Just recently the US has reimposed sanctions on Iran’s oil exports as well as copper, aluminum and steel most recently. The economic effects have not been good for Iran.

Iran Uses Proxies To Retaliate and Threatens To Start Enriching Uranium

Reportedly Iran has retaliated using Houthi rebels in Saudi Arabia to attack oil pipelines and shipping in the Persian Gulf.

Trump Sends The USS Abraham Lincoln

Trump ordered a US carrier battle group into the gulf. The Saudis want Iran ‘defanged‘ and have called for ‘surgical’ US Airstrikes.

24 Hour Cable News Channels and Talk Radio Love War

Here come endless loops of jets leaving carrier decks. Pundits talking over shock and awe. Headlines across the bottom of screens showing US troops in Iraq.

Deja Vu All Over Again

Finally we have been through all this before. It did not end well. In fact it has not ended. The Iranians are not paragons of virtue but they are no Iraq or Afghanistan either.

In conclusion we ought to think about that before we’re snookered into another war.

(Editor’s Note: I refer to PPP when giving Iran’s per capita income at about 22,000 a year. In US Dollars it’s probably about 8,000 a year. In addition I gave Iran’s oil export total as 1.2 barrels a year. Even more it is roughly 1.2 million barrels a day.)

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War-Rumors-Iran-Trump-Bob Davis Podcast 832

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