Chaos-Confusion-Shut Down-Merry Trumpmas-Bob Davis Podcast 788

I love talking about current events. These days it gets harder and harder because of a volatile President Trump. Learn more in Chaos-Confusion-Shut Down-Merry Trumpmas-Bob Davis Podcast 788.

Genius Or Idiot

Moreover all this talk of political polarity isn’t republican or democrat. Either you think the president is a genius or an idiot. There’s no in between.

Especially relevant is the question of whether we are able to take a step back and look at recent key events with some perspective.

Economics and Diplomacy Nobody Wants To Discuss

Not too long ago I asked listeners and subscribers to think about what US economic and foreign policy should be. A presidential election and midterm election have taken place since then.

Suddenly foreign policy and economic policy are front and center. We’ll talk about it fireside in Chaos-Confusion-Shut Down-Merry Trumpmas-Bob Davis Podcast 788.

Syria and Turkey

First of all, the president made a snap decision to withdraw US Troops from Syria while on the phone with the Turkish president. In the aftermath the defense secretary resigned, as well as a senior diplomat managing the alliances to fight ISIS. Now the president is talking about withdraws from Afghanistan and Iraq. Is he right?

Combined with Trump’s executive order ban of Bump-Stocks the Syria Withdraw has usually fawning talk show hosts apoplectic.

Government Shutdown

In addition the ongoing struggle between the White House and Congress has resulted in a government ‘shutdown‘. What’s more the struggle appears to be between a Republican president and his Republican majority in the House and Senate.

Firing The Fed Head

On top off all this the president wants to fire the Federal Reserve Chairman. Concerns about economic performance are rising and finally financial analysts are writing about government spending accounting for most of the so called ‘boom’ in the US economy over the last two quarters. This is conservative republican economics?

End Of Conservative GOP

Finally there’s talk of a big split within the republican party. Moderate Republicans fighting Trumpers. Trump fighting with all of them to get a wall built along the US Mexican border. Through all of this there’s been no legislation on key matters like immigration even with republican control of the Legislative and Executive branches of the government. It sure seems like the lack of principles and republican populism is tearing the so called ‘conservative’ coalition apart.

Merry Trumpmas

In conclusion the question of whether people thought about policy during both elections is key. New ideas, and international structures are coming. If we the people don’t start thinking about what kind of country we want, and how will the next America function? Trumpmas will look like child’s play. All of this has me aching to hit the open road!

Sponsored by John D Scott Personal Injury Lawyer, Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul, and Reliafund Payment Processors

Chaos-Confusion-Shut Down-Merry Trumpmas-Bob Davis Podcast 788

 

Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756

As I do the last two podcasts in the toss up series at the Bob Davis Podcasts, more predictions of a democrat wave are most notable. Are these predictions true? We’ll find out in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756.

Shellacking

In addition to commentators AP reported this week that republican pollsters are telling top republicans they’re in for a shellacking in November.

As a mission of the Bob Davis Podcasts I have been looking at those elections deemed ‘toss ups’ by the experts.

Conventional Wisdom Is Right Until Wrong

Especially relevant is the idea behind the mission. No predictions. Non partisan. What is the situation in these key districts in the final weeks of the election. Readers, subscribers and listeners might be surprised to learn very few public polls exist. Conventional wisdom drives most of these predictions. I detail this for each toss up in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756.

Close Elections Don’t Always Mean Flips

From North Carolina to Texas in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756. Toss up races are simply close elections for whatever reason. Moreover most US House elections are in solid democrat or republican districts. This year some say there are more than 40 districts that will be close. Why they’re close is key.

Open Seats And Changing Geography

In some cases the district is an open seat because of retirements. In other cases, the contours of the district’s geography have changed. What was once a solid republican or democrat district is now supposedly more ‘balanced’.

Everyone Hates Congress…

Finally the real question in the 2018 midterms is whether people will vote their opinions of the president or local concerns. The old saying goes, everyone hates congress but not their congressman.

One Size Fits All Election?

In conclusion I spent a fair amount of time not only looking through the data for these districts but also watching some of the internet and TV ads for candidates. Sometimes it’s hard to tell the republican from the democrat. This is not a one size fits all election even though the media would have its viewers believe it is.

Once I finish this series in this podcast, and the next, I’ll do one more podcast with my analysis since there isn’t much time for that in these podcasts dealing with individual districts.

Sponsored by John D Scott Personal Injury Lawyer and the Water Butler Water Purification Systems

Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756

 

Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755

A series of podcasts dedicated to the so called toss up races for the Senate, Governors and House in 2018’s Midterm Election. Most notable in Part 3 are Minnesota’s toss ups. Find out why in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755.

Dive Deep

These days podcasters can dive deep by doing a series of podcasts on one subject. One of my missions at the Bob Davis Podcasts is to provide the antidote to the prattling and predictions.

So I am diving deep!

What IS a Toss Up?

It’s especially relevant that I am reviewing the data and details about states and districts for this series. One of my takeaways is what political scientists and commentators view as a toss up is entirely up to their judgement.

One man’s toss up is another man’s lean republican, or lean democrat.

Story Lines Are Click Bait and Influence Voters

My issue is these predictions create their own story lines. These ‘predictions’ can influence voters negatively.

This Year’s Story Line

This year the story line is republicans will lose the House and Senate and some Governorships because of the antics of President Donald Trump. Is this true?

Learn more in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755.

Minnesota Center Stage

In 2018 Minnesotans elect a Governor, two Senators and eight Congressman. There are also contested statewide races like Attorney General and State Auditor. Moreover Senator Tina Smith is running in her first election after Governor Dayton appointed her to the Senate. We have a lot going on in our state.

Finally so called experts say there are four toss up races in Minnesota this year. Two democrat and two traditionally republican House districts.

Find out if I think it is true in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755.

No Predictions No Partisanship

In conclusion I don’t make predictions or try to make the data ‘lean’ on way or another. I don’t make judgements based on rumors in these districts. I give you the existing data on the district and let you make your own prediction.

Listen To This Series. Know What To Watch For On Election Night

Bottom line, if you listen to this series of podcasts on election night, you’ll know where to look and what races to watch to make an informed prediction about the election’s outcome and what it may or may not mean.

(Editor’s Note: Heads up if you’re using Ballotpedia to check presidential voting stats for individual house districts. One set of data in particular has caused problems for me. A drop down chart purporting to show house election results by HOUSE district is in fact by STATE HOUSE district, In the case of the second district this showed a huge advantage for Trump. It is only in state HOUSE districts, apparently and not overall. A similar chart from the Daily Koz, ON the Daily Koz shows actual house districts and a much closer result. Still a win for Trump in the 2nd in 2016. Despite this update, I still feel the toss up race in 2018 will be in Minnesota’s 3rd district. I did not use this data set for every house race. I don’t think it changes whether a district leans one way or another or is a toss up since I based my analysis on other factors.)

Sponsored by The Water Butler Water Purification Systems and John D Scott Personal Injury Lawyer

Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755