Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755

A series of podcasts dedicated to the so called toss up races for the Senate, Governors and House in 2018’s Midterm Election. Most notable in Part 3 are Minnesota’s toss ups. Find out why in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755.

Dive Deep

These days podcasters can dive deep by doing a series of podcasts on one subject. One of my missions at the Bob Davis Podcasts is to provide the antidote to the prattling and predictions.

So I am diving deep!

What IS a Toss Up?

It’s especially relevant that I am reviewing the data and details about states and districts for this series. One of my takeaways is what political scientists and commentators view as a toss up is entirely up to their judgement.

One man’s toss up is another man’s lean republican, or lean democrat.

Story Lines Are Click Bait and Influence Voters

My issue is these predictions create their own story lines. These ‘predictions’ can influence voters negatively.

This Year’s Story Line

This year the story line is republicans will lose the House and Senate and some Governorships because of the antics of President Donald Trump. Is this true?

Learn more in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755.

Minnesota Center Stage

In 2018 Minnesotans elect a Governor, two Senators and eight Congressman. There are also contested statewide races like Attorney General and State Auditor. Moreover Senator Tina Smith is running in her first election after Governor Dayton appointed her to the Senate. We have a lot going on in our state.

Finally so called experts say there are four toss up races in Minnesota this year. Two democrat and two traditionally republican House districts.

Find out if I think it is true in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755.

No Predictions No Partisanship

In conclusion I don’t make predictions or try to make the data ‘lean’ on way or another. I don’t make judgements based on rumors in these districts. I give you the existing data on the district and let you make your own prediction.

Listen To This Series. Know What To Watch For On Election Night

Bottom line, if you listen to this series of podcasts on election night, you’ll know where to look and what races to watch to make an informed prediction about the election’s outcome and what it may or may not mean.

(Editor’s Note: Heads up if you’re using Ballotpedia to check presidential voting stats for individual house districts. One set of data in particular has caused problems for me. A drop down chart purporting to show house election results by HOUSE district is in fact by STATE HOUSE district, In the case of the second district this showed a huge advantage for Trump. It is only in state HOUSE districts, apparently and not overall. A similar chart from the Daily Koz, ON the Daily Koz shows actual house districts and a much closer result. Still a win for Trump in the 2nd in 2016. Despite this update, I still feel the toss up race in 2018 will be in Minnesota’s 3rd district. I did not use this data set for every house race. I don’t think it changes whether a district leans one way or another or is a toss up since I based my analysis on other factors.)

Sponsored by The Water Butler Water Purification Systems and John D Scott Personal Injury Lawyer

Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755

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Podcast 523-Jason Lewis

Podcast 523-Jason Lewis. Join Mobile Podcast Command Unit 8 in the Pan-O-Prog parade in Lakeville, Minnesota. If you’re running for office, or working for someone running for office, regardless of party affiliation, you’re walking in parades, driving in parades, or handing out literature at parades all over your district, and you’ll be doing so until right around State Fair time in the land of ten thousand lakes. The Panorama of Progress parade in Lakeville dates back to 1967. Lakeville is in the heart of Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District where a big political fight is brewing. It isn’t a fight between republicans and democrats, but a fight between republicans. Four candidates are vying for the seat being vacated by the retirement of Congressman John Kline. The trouble started before the CD2 Endorsing convention when Kline endorsed Darlene Miller instead of Jason Lewis. Some believe Kline’s problem stems from comments made by Jason Lewis on The Bob Davis Podcasts regarding Iran and US Foreign Policy. I would urge critics to actually listen to what Lewis said by searching ‘Jason Lewis’ in the search window on my website (thebobdavispodcasts.com) rather than using liner notes or taking the so called party line. As it pertains to foreign policy, I have said many times, it’s going to take independent and thoughtful congressmen, senators, presidents, career diplomats, defense and foreign policy experts to develop a new foreign policy for the United States. The old plug-and-play approach to foreign policy, or the best of the 70’s, 80’s and 90’s strategies isn’t going to work in a multi-polar world. Military commitments have to be considered in the light of what the knock-on effects of those interventions might mean, something our government really didn’t do very well when the US invaded Iraq and Afghanistan. Some might argue, this is the root of what ruined the GOP’s chance to succeed George W Bush, or to limit Barack Obama to one term. In the aftermath of the Ron Paul revolution in republican politics, as well as wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the development of ISIS, the Arab Spring, Syria, emerging economies, China and Russia, we need a new approach to defense and foreign policy. The problem is, as I have said, foreign policy doesn’t come out of a can. In this podcast, we ride in the parade with Jason Lewis supporters, who commandeered Mobile Podcast Command’s PA System (I didn’t care, I wanted to ride in the parade anyway, and this doesn’t constitute an endorsement. Jason is a friend of mine, and I think he’s great, but you go ahead and vote for anyone you want!) so you can hear a campaign in progress, and then we’re joined by Jason to talk about the campaign, the Primary Challenge on August 9th, focusing on trade and the economic challenges for everyday Americans, on a brilliantly sunny afternoon in July, in Lakeville Minnesota. Enjoy riding in a parade in Podcast 523-Jason Lewis. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul and Karow Contracting, Storm Damage Specialists.

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Podcast 456

Bad Omen. A special primary election in Minnesota’s 35th Senate District results in 60 percent of the vote for RINO Jim Abeler over the Tea Party and Republican Party endorsed candidate Andy Aplicowski and may be a bad omen for the general election in 2016. The Iowa Precinct Caucuses are on February 1st. Minnesota’s caucuses are on March 1st. With the national media reporting on the Republican Party ‘Civil War’, and the impact of the Tea Party in that ‘civil war’ it looks like the Tea Party is all show, and no go. Tea Party groups can’t seem to get out the vote for ‘principled’ conservatives. Is this a bad omen? Is it possible voters don’t agree with the Tea Party message? Are the Tea Party groups lazy? Or, maybe Tea Party groups are just ignorant of what real political organizing requires. If this happens nationwide in 2016 then the so called ‘grassroots surge’ of ‘principled’ conservatives in the Republican Party, supported by Tea Party chapters all over the country, may be one of the biggest busts, and thus one of the biggest stories of 2016 bad omen, or not. Offering excuses doesn’t cut it. Win, or go home. Sure, the story line of the Tea Party as kingmaker serves the mainstream media’s interests now, but if the Tea Party can’t produce results what the media gives will be taken away, mercilessly. What’s wrong? This might be considered a harsh analysis for some, but when the Tea Party candidate loses by sixty percent of the vote, it’s a criticism that should be heard and a story that’s not being told. Is there something these groups can do to improve their performance? What happens if they keep failing to win? Sponsored by Hydrus, Pride of Home and Luke Team Real Estate.

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