Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756

As I do the last two podcasts in the toss up series at the Bob Davis Podcasts, more predictions of a democrat wave are most notable. Are these predictions true? We’ll find out in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756.

Shellacking

In addition to commentators AP reported this week that republican pollsters are telling top republicans they’re in for a shellacking in November.

As a mission of the Bob Davis Podcasts I have been looking at those elections deemed ‘toss ups’ by the experts.

Conventional Wisdom Is Right Until Wrong

Especially relevant is the idea behind the mission. No predictions. Non partisan. What is the situation in these key districts in the final weeks of the election. Readers, subscribers and listeners might be surprised to learn very few public polls exist. Conventional wisdom drives most of these predictions. I detail this for each toss up in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756.

Close Elections Don’t Always Mean Flips

From North Carolina to Texas in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756. Toss up races are simply close elections for whatever reason. Moreover most US House elections are in solid democrat or republican districts. This year some say there are more than 40 districts that will be close. Why they’re close is key.

Open Seats And Changing Geography

In some cases the district is an open seat because of retirements. In other cases, the contours of the district’s geography have changed. What was once a solid republican or democrat district is now supposedly more ‘balanced’.

Everyone Hates Congress…

Finally the real question in the 2018 midterms is whether people will vote their opinions of the president or local concerns. The old saying goes, everyone hates congress but not their congressman.

One Size Fits All Election?

In conclusion I spent a fair amount of time not only looking through the data for these districts but also watching some of the internet and TV ads for candidates. Sometimes it’s hard to tell the republican from the democrat. This is not a one size fits all election even though the media would have its viewers believe it is.

Once I finish this series in this podcast, and the next, I’ll do one more podcast with my analysis since there isn’t much time for that in these podcasts dealing with individual districts.

Sponsored by John D Scott Personal Injury Lawyer and the Water Butler Water Purification Systems

Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756

 

Podcast 554-Latest Election State By State Polls

Podcast 554-Latest Election State By State Polls. For you political junkies, which includes me, it’s been a month since the last analysis of political polls state by state, and I promised another one at the end of September, 2016. If you want to compare the two state by state poll podcasts to really get a sense of movement check out Podcast 541. I do not intend to analyze the debate. I will not tell you who won the debate. I will not tell you whether people pay attention to the debates. None of the current state by state polls were taken after the debates so they do not reflect the effects on either candidate of the debates. With this in mind, over 80 million people watched the September 26th debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. The next state-by-state poll roundup podcast at the end of October will show what effect – if any – the debates may or may not have had. The biggest change between this podcast and the podcast in late August is that there are now more ‘toss up’ states — that is states with poll averages for president within the margin of error. In Podcast 554-State By State Polls, I am drawing on data from Real Clear Politics. Follow the link directly to an interactive electoral map of the United States and follow along, or may your own map. The tightening could be knock on effects from Clinton’s bad week of September 11th, or it could just be due to more polls closer to the election, when respondents start paying attention and are more likely to give responses. You’ll have to listen for my conclusions about whether more toss up states mean anything, but for the most part, both candidates are within the margins in 2012 and 2008 in the states they lead, or are trading leads. The big questions remain Florida, Ohio, Pennsyvania, Virginia, and to a lesser extent North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, and western states like Colorado, Arizona and Nevada. This is a state by state electoral election, so the national polls don’t matter, and the snap polls on who won the debate don’t matter. All that matters is the candidate’s performance, and get out the vote efforts for them in key electoral states. Listen and learn the state by state strongholds, battlegrounds, advantages and disadvantages, roughly a month out. We’ll come back at the end of October and again just before the election in early November, and see how the campaigning, media, and news events have changed the political landscape. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing of Saint Paul.

Podcast 464

Welcome to Tennessee. Live from Bristol, Tennessee – The Birthplace Of Country Music. New Hampshire’s primary is history. Flush with new data and fresh story lines, every satellite news truck and reporter is rolling out of the Granite State headed for South Carolina, the third primary in election 2016. The Bob Davis Podcasts are already in the south, taking a break from the political craziness. Welcome to Tennessee, and to one of the coolest towns in Eastern Tennessee and Western Virginia: Bristol. Part of Bristol is in the Volunteer State of Tennessee and the other part is in the Old Dominion. This is a great introduction to South Carolina, because this part of Tennessee and Virginia are in the Appalachian Mountains, first settled by the Scots-Irish, English and Germans over two hundred years ago. They brought their culture with them including stories and music dating back centuries. Industrial growth from the late 1800’s and beginning of the twentieth century brought change to the people who call this part of the country home. In 1927 a Bristol area musician and performer recommended the town to a recording engineer and talent scout. The scout brought the latest recording technology to town, set up shop in a hat factory, placed an ad in a local newspaper and prepared to record. Ralph Peer’s Bristol Sessions turned out to be seminal in the development of American Roots music and the careers of artists who later became major country music stars. The Bristol Sessions are often referred to as ‘The Big Bang of Country Music’. The Birthplace of Country Music Museum in Bristol celebrates the Bristol Sessions and so much more. Take a break from the endless political nonsense going on, to get a sense of the influence this part of the country has had on the rest of the United States, and the gift the people of Appalachia have given us all. Today the south is a major economic, social and political influence, equal or greater to any other part of the country. Get set for surprises after South Carolina votes, and after the mid south primaries on Super Tuesday. (Big Thanks to Renee Rogers and Charlene Baker for meeting me at the Museum office back door on a snowy Monday, and for doing an interview for this podcast.) Sponsored by X Government Cars, Pride of Homes and Luke Team Real Estate.

Podcast 463

Inside An Iowa Caucus. Live from Tennessee, we take a final look at the Iowa Caucuses, by taking subscribers inside a rural Iowa precinct caucus. Thirteen US States and 2 US territories use the caucus system. People who live in states with primary elections – where people cast a single vote on a ballot of some kind on primary election day – may hear the word ‘caucus’ but have never been inside one and don’t really understand the process. As democrats argue about how Hillary Clinton eked out a victory in the Iowa caucus, and Donald Trump making noises about Ted Cruz’ efforts to win, just how a caucus is conducted is news. In this podcast we take you inside an Iowa Caucus; The Rules, The Speeches, The Vote Counting and The Results. If you’re lucky enough to live in a state with caucuses, when you participate you’re taking part in one of the oldest democratic processes in the world. Classic representative government in Athens, Rome, and the Venetian Republic among others, allowed a sort of people’s congress. All citizens in good standing could participate in choosing candidate for leadership positions. We still do it to this day with caucuses. It’s fascinating to participate, or listen to everyday citizens conducting an orderly meeting in which leaders are nominated, voted upon, and citizens from that precinct are chosen to represent their neighbors at the next level meeting. While these podcasts have questioned Iowa’s permanent position as the first in the nation vote in presidential cycles, the commitment of its citizens to the process should be celebrated. Having escaped the snows of Des Moines and decamped to Chattanooga Tennessee, I am joined in this podcast by an old friend, who also provides some insight as to how one of the key states in the so called ‘Southeastern Conference’ may vote on Super Tuesday. From here, its on to South Carolina, where all the campaigns are headed after New Hampshire. This concludes the Iowa Caucus portion of 2016 coverage for the Bob Davis Podcasts. A few days of barbecue, shooting and some southern hospitality and we’re back on the road again. (Big thanks to John Berg of Jefferson, Iowa for inviting the Bob Davis Podcasts into his precinct caucus!) Sponsored by Brush Studio and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul.

Podcast 445

The Highway Song. As the media cycle repeats on an endless loop, boredom begins to set in. How many more arguments do you want to hear about Donald Trump being Hitler, or Ted Cruz being Ted Cruz, or Hillary Clinton and Benghazi? There is a real world waiting to be experienced. Not the make believe world the media’s twenty four hour a day obsession with American politics seems to be showing us. When there’s a new wrinkle, the Bob Davis Podcasts will break in with an update. Meanwhile this podcast asks, is travel an escape from reality or is travel reality and our lives are an escape from travel? A walk and talk through a ‘warm’ early December evening is designed to stir your memories of travel and your wanderlust. Where have you gone? Where would you like to go? Why? When did you first experience a sense of wonder as you traveled to new places? Was it a road trip with the parents? A first flight to some exotic location in the islands? A ski trip in the mountains? A road trip, with college friends, back in the day? What cities have you visited? Where would you like to visit? New York City? Chicago? New Orleans? San Francisco? Las Vegas? For me its all about the road trip. As I prepare for the big Mobile Podcast Command Winter ’16 trip to Iowa for the caucuses, then onto the mid south, and the eastern seaboard through the North and South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and Texas, my mind turns to the things I see and learn through the screen … the windscreen that is. There’s nothing better for the soul. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul and X Government Trucks

Podcast 440

New Radio Show. In a freewheeling discussion on Saturday night about talk radio, media and creativity, the new Bob Davis Podcasts Radio Show on the Genesis Communications Network is announced. The Bob Davis Podcasts are content rich, so taking some of that content and reproducing it into a one hour weekly show available on the Westwood Satellite for radio stations, is a new idea. From here we talk about the current state of talk radio and media, as well as what’s planned for next year at The Bob Davis Podcasts. Some of the people who listen to these podcasts are interested in ‘behind the scenes’ stuff in radio. While there isn’t going to be any dirt thrown in this podcast, there is discussion about the fact that broadcast media, as well as some of the older style cable news channels really aren’t serving viewers and listeners anymore. It seems more and more as though the job of talkers is to get people angry and upset, or to gin up longer listening spans by talking about nothing, using emotional content in the worst sort of way. One of the things podcasters learn right away is, there is a lot more content in a half-hour podcast than you’ll ever hear in an hour on the radio or on cable TV News, and certainly in an hour of television news. What’s also surprising is the realization that being in business for yourself, and building the business, is sometimes more fun and engaging that actually doing the podcasts. Podcasting itself – while not brand new – is brand new to most people, especially for those long time talk radio listeners who find themselves with nothing to listen to. A new medium means new opportunities for business, which can be very exciting. The New Bob Davis Podcast Radio Show will feature content from the podcasts, which should become very dense after February 1st, as we begin official coverage of election 2016, by covering the Iowa Caucuses and then a grand trip through Mid South Super Tuesday States, to South Carolina (third in the nation primary state), Georgia, Florida, Louisiana, Texas and north back to the Twin Cities. Of course, the podcasts will continue right here at thebobdavispodcasts.com. Watch this space for links and specifics regarding the new Bob Davis Podcasts Radio Show. Sponsored by Pride of Homes and Luke Team Real Estate, Hydrus, and Baklund R&D

Podcast 433

Voting Surprises. Elections held on November 3rd, 2015 show the potential for voters to surprise and even shock media, pundits and commentators. Is a Tea-Party Republican victory in the Kentucky Governor’s race a harbinger of surprises to come once people start actually voting in the primaries and caucuses starting February 1st, 2016? Voters in Ohio rejected legalizing Marijuana, Democrats in Virginia lost their bid to gain control of the State Senate, and LGBT rights legislation failed in Houston, Texas. Is this a conservative voting trend? The next actual election is November 21st in Louisiana, where polls say a Democrat is favored to win the bid to replace Republican Governor Bobby Jindal. Is the chattering class underestimating the possibility that conservative voters could show up in large numbers, shifting the country to the right. Same question applies to the grip of establishment republicans on power in the GOP. It is dangerous to believe polls, especially this early in the process. When it comes to real political science, the proof is in the pudding. If there is a trend of angry voters on the right turning out, the punditry is going to be caught flat footed, but the establishment republicans will be shocked. One gets the impression, reporters and commentators covering these elections hear so many stump speeches and have so much red meat thrown at them they get jaded when it comes to the degree of frustration of ordinary voters. The turmoil on the right is a storm brewed up by svengali strategists at the RNC who expected to crown Jeb Bush the nominee. Now Trump, Carson and Cruz threaten the whole house of cards, demanding their own rules for debates or upsetting the carefully constructed plan. Outliers Trump and Sanders on the left are shaking up the status quo and challenging the idea that suzerains in Washington get to decide who the nominee will be on either side. In the real news, things don’t seem to be going so well and the commentariat continues to write tripe. The GDP only ‘grew’ 1.5 percent, but don’t worry growth is expected when consumers, ‘spending the savings from lower gas prices like a tax cut’ finally kicks in. A new study done by Democrat Operatives that says Mergers and Acquisitions are causing ‘inequality’. Is this true? Meanwhile Congressional Republicans lift the debt ceiling and federal spending jumped by 338 billion dollars. Maybe they should be talking about cutting spending rather than cutting taxes? Sponsored by Pride of Homes and Luke Team Real Estate and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

Podcast 379

National D-Day Memorial. The Road Trip continues, south from Indianapolis to Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee and Western Virginia. Stopping off for a street fair in Berea, Kentucky and by chance, the National D-Day Memorial at sundown, on June 6th, 2015; the 71st Commemoration of the landing by allied armies in occupied France, at Normandy. Meanwhile, more and more politicians declare their ‘candidacy for the Presidency’ and where’s the first place they go? Iowa. There’s many interesting and valuable small and medium sized towns across this country, with interesting people, that could do with a little attention from politicians who are supposed to be representing the people, but no. The entire media and political focus in this country is on the diffused population of a state that has made a tourist business out of politics, a full year before it will matter. This is how a handful of political ‘activists’, which really means ‘groupie’, ‘attention whore’, ‘fame vampire’, get to have an outsized influence on the American political process. The founding fathers not only are turning over in their graves; they’re spinning like tops. The best thing about travel is it all blurs together until its like a dream, and that’s good. All the better to turn off those idiots, and hit the road. The thing about travel is, once you let you go, and let the countryside and the experiences that go with it come and go, sometimes you get to see amazing things. This is the case with the National D-Day Memorial, which many people probably don’t even know exists, reached at sundown on June 6th, after an unexpected detour to save time, just in time to hear one soldier play taps, in honor of those who gave their lives that day so many years ago. Travel east of the Mississippi is different because the distances are shorter, but there’s more places to pull over and dawdle. College towns like Berea, Kentucky. Rocky Top Tennessee, and the birthplace of country music, Bristol, Virginia. Anyplace but Iowa! Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

Podcast 270

Florida Christmas. We’re in a ‘News Lock’. This happens in between major events, when the media machine keeps churning away on the same topics, even though everyone has moved on. And while The Bob Davis Podcasts continues to keep an eye on world and national events, the great thing about podcasting is, there’s no point in joining the crowd, repetitively pounding away on the same nonsense, and saying nothing new. We’re getting close enough to Christmas, 2014 to say its the holiday season. The trials and tribulations. The expectations. The disappointments. And, the good things too. (Editor’s note: One of the things that comes up this time of year for me is the road trips my family used to take to Florida every other year, to spend Christmas there with my grandparents. It was oddly free of the pressures and intensity of ‘The Season of Peace’. I think its because we were on an adventure, and the main topic of conversation was where to stay when we got to Valdosta.) Take a break from the ‘News Lock’ and reminisce about your own family’s Christmas road trips. From the used cars my father insisted on buying, including the 63 Chevy, 66 Buick ‘Vista’ wagon, the 64 Elektra and the 68 Elektra, a lifetime exposure to secondhand smoke, the luxury of the Howard Johnson’s, versus the TravelAll (Dad’s favorite, cause it was cheap!), Uncle Roy in Jacksonville, the Orange Groves and finally…finally, the Ocean. Plus, discount shopping with my Grandfather, spilling Raisinets on Grandma’s expensive couch, Christmas lights in the humid night air, walks down the beach, and Jelly Fish. Lots of Jelly Fish. And the places we visited on those trips. Kennesaw Mountain (Editor’s Note: Which I thought was in Kentucky, but in fact it is in Georgia), Caverns, Saint Augustine and the Mansions of South Florida. In today’s high speed culture, most people fly if they go anywhere, and its too bad because there is much to be learned on a road trip. Sponsored by X Government Cars and by Depotstar

Podcast 262

White Line Fever. Road Trip Return! The trip back to Minneapolis, staying in the warmth of the southern late fall for as long as possible. Richmond, southwest to Roanoke, Virginia and then onto Nashville, Tennessee. Passing through Bristol, Virginia and Knoxville, Tennessee and all points in between. You know all that talk about ‘infrastructure’ in the US? How we need new roads and bridges? With many miles covered on these Road Trip Podcasts, there have been few – if any – pot-holes, rotted bridges, or signs of any crumbling infrastructure. Even cities like Bristol, Virginia and Roanoke feature new construction, smooth roads, brand spanking new housing developments, and new and thriving downtown ‘urban’ experiences like Farmer’s Markets, yoga studios and the like. There are so many smooth roads you can get ‘white line fever’ rolling through hills and gentle turns, as traffic comfortably hits eighty plus mile an hour speeds. Sounds like a science fiction novel, but it is true. From the Twin Cities east, all the way to Virginia, and now coming back across the mid south, it’s hard to find evidence of ‘decaying infrastructure’, not to mention all the shiny new cars! Hear tips on how to travel fast and easy, avoiding speed traps, and getting a boat load of coffee before departure. As we ease back into the work week after a long Thanksgiving Holiday, some thoughts about what we should be hearing from politicians in Washington; how to make our economy thrive, not just ‘do better’. Traveling across the country this quickly, you can’t help but notice the developing economies of small, medium and large sized cities you pass through, especially outside the center cities. The overall effect is optimism. Americans are still innovative, and ready to work. Its about time our lawmakers understood what to do, how to do it, and how to talk about it so they can get what they need to get done, so we can get done what we need to get done. Sponsored by Baklund R&D.