2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 2-Podcast 717

Continuing to run down the toss up races in the 2018 midterm elections for the US House. The big story line? A democrat wave will wrest control of the house from the republicans. In 2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 2-Podcast 717.

From The Midwest Across To The Atlantic Coast

Kansas and Nebraska. East of the Mississippi to Iowa. Minnesota which has some of the closest House races in the country. Illinois in the northern suburbs, and the Land of Lincoln’s southern tip. Across to New York, Georgia, New Hampshire and more.

All About Political Junkies

The second of two parts of a mega podcasting effort for political junkies and subscribers who just want someone to objectively run down all the races in one spot. We’ll challenge some of the myths and tell you why some pundits say this year is a game changer. In 2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 2-Podcast 717.

These days the biggest problem with the media is its penchant for trying to predict the future. Americans are ill served because of this problem. Expectations become truth. Final outcomes turn out to be much harder to predict. Democrats learned this the hard way in 2016’s presidential race.

Republicans Defending The Most Toss Up Seats

Especially relevant is the fact that as a political agnostic, I’m not afraid to tell you there is almost no polling to speak of, despite all the efforts to predict the outcome of 435 House Races. To be sure, the republicans are defending most of the toss up seats.

Why Democrats Believe This Will Be A Wave

Moreover after spending two days poring over election data and reading about local issues and personalties, I can tell you why democrats believe this will be a ‘wave’ election. Do their hopes have any basis in reality? Well. Listen and find out. In 2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 2-Podcast 717.

With the Midterms 7 months away, anything can happen. Moreover primaries in some races will determine the tactical situation in many of the House districts in question. Both parties are furiously trying to raise enough money to compete. Will they be able to commit the resources they’re famous for in the special elections that grabbed all the headlines lately?

All Politics Is Local

That’s the old saying. What are the local issues, personalties and unique characteristics of places we don’t think very much about unless its our home? How many of those out of the way places may have an election that determines the future of our country? Check out 2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 2-Podcast 717 and let’s talk. For the same kind of analysis on the US Senate Toss Up races, go here.

Sponsored by Reliafund Payment Processors and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 2-Podcast 717

Road To Character-Principle Free Politics In America-Podcast 705

These days the scolds are telling us how to live. What to do. Put down the hand held device. Give up screen time. So called conservatives especially stake out the moral high ground. Problem is there don’t seem to be any principles when it comes to politics. We’ll talk about it in Road To Character-Principle Free Politics In America-Podcast 705.

Sacrifice For The Greater Good

If we can just sacrifice for the greater good. Devote our lives to something bigger than ourselves. Become more passionate and purposeful about that purpose. Right?

The Greatest Generation

What’s more, the World War 2 generation can always be trotted out as an example of virtue. Just think how much better the world would be if those distracted millennials and super liberal generate Z people would emulate the “Greatest Generation”.

It’s The Millennials Right?

Truth is the world is changing fast. We’re at the dawn of a fast moving wall of change. Moreover demanding people act a certain way may not be the right idea. In Road To Character-Principle Free Politics In America-Podcast 705.

Principle Free Politics

Welcome to the seedy underbelly of politics. Moralists on both sides tell everyone else how to act while they ignore basic principles. Yeah sure, democrats have been doing this for years. Now republicans are becoming champions at principle free politics. Looks to me like one big mob.

Character Is Someone Else’s Problem

Get the guns and deal with due process later. A 25 cent per gallon gas tax increase. Trade protection. Spend and spend. Pile on national debt. President for life sounds like a good idea. What to do when a republican president promotes ideas directly opposed to republican ideals? Defend him. Go figure.

Principles Or Power?

In conclusion, given the fast pace of change in the world what troubles me isn’t character, it’s the lack of principle in the political party that controls all three branches of government.

In the near future the Technology Revolution will challenge us all. If all anyone wants to do is tear the old world down we’re in for a rough ride.

As far as I’m concerned there’s only one principle that matters these days. Individual Freedom.

Do republicans care about liberty anymore? Or do they just want power.

Sponsored by Reliafund Payment Processors and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

Road To Character-Principle Free Politics In America-Podcast 705

Podcast 595-Money

Money and Controlling the Media Battle Space

Money. Money. Money! Everything the new President says and does is controversial. The latest eruption concerns Trump’s executive order regarding immigrants from several war-torn countries in the middle east region. A handful of court rulings challenging the order are centered on whether due process can be denied people allowed into the United States legally. The court rulings do not suggest the President cannot use executive orders to control departments in the executive branch but whether if the executive orders deny legal rights without due process.

This is just another in a series of actions and comments by President Trump and his administration that have received wide comment and coverage in the media. While protesters protest and media outlets gas-bag about the latest affront to society, Trump and his people throw another rock into the lake creating new ripples that have to be protested against and reacted to by the already too reactive media. This is a tactic or strategy known as an OODA Loop. Trump is forcing the media and his opponents to react to him. When they react his team observes their reaction, decides on a new initiative and then acts, restarting the loop. In this way the administration controls the media battle space.

About the Money

In Podcast 595-Money: When it comes to Money, once the initial spate of executive orders and stunts at press conferences passes, Congress and the President will get down to work on legislative initiatives to address the moribund economy of the United States. Podcast 595-Money wonders whether what has been talked about by this president on the campaign trail and in the media will indeed, make America Great Again.

No Growth

The United States has grown less than 3 percent a year roughly for the last eight years. Those old enough to remember the early 80’s know that the experience of robust economic growth in that era was real. People didn’t worry so much about getting jobs. As inflation came under control and interest rates came down and as unemployment started to come down, optimism took hold. We have not had that kind of feeling in the United States for a long time.

The question is whether the things Trump wants to do will actually produce economic growth. Middle Class taxes are already historically low. Cutting corporate taxes may result in higher profits which is good for Wall Street but may not translate to jobs. Some parts of clearing out the thicket of Federal Regulations can be done by executive order but most of it will require congressional action. Will a Trillion Dollar Stimulus package to build roads and bridges spur economic growth?

A Republican Stimulus?

President Obama’s Trillion Dollar stimulus was supposed to stimulate economic growth and didn’t. Part of the problem with big federal stimulus efforts is the money has to be block granted to states and the spending becomes political. Another issue is the fact that most people in the United States are employed in services rather than construction trade. Aside from the fact that government spending doesn’t ‘create’ jobs, putting people to work in a small swath of the population usually doesn’t result in a high multiple. This is why the Obama Stimulus produced dubious results.

Another problem is Trump’s Trade Protectionist sentiments. While the trade unions love the idea generally the United States has been a free trade nation. Trade agreements are negotiated because most of our trading partners are trade protectionists. The agreements generally break down borders to our trade. The fact certain kinds of manufacturing is cheaper in Latin America and Asia has actually benefited Americans in the form of cheaper goods. Putting up barriers to manufacturing overseas also means goods in the US will become more expensive.

Most of the jobs lost in the last decade or so have been lost due to information technology, robotics and automation. New manufacturing plants are much more automated these days which means they will not produce the manufacturing jobs expected. When one considers completely automated warehouses like Amazon’s and robotic manufacturing like Elon Musk’s showplace plant, don’t expect ‘bringing manufacturing back to the United States’ means jobs at the factory for Uncle Mike.

If you believe the economy is the sum total of individual’s transactions then an economy can be considered a force of nature. This is the first time in recent memory a ‘conservative’ president has endorsed trade protection and big government spending. Two of the biggest problems economically in the United States are the ongoing budget deficits and the total public debt. One wonders how the cornerstones of the Trump economic policy will produce enough growth to reduce the deficits and public debt.

Finally in Podcast 595-Money, the proof will be in the pudding. With all the other controversies swirling around this president after just two weeks if his policies fail to produce the promised economic growth republicans will have real problems in the 2018 and perhaps the 2020 cycles, especially for the politicians that endorsed Trump. Be careful what you pray for.

Sponsored by X Government Cars and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul.

 

Podcast 593-Surreal Weekend

Surreal Weekend

The Inaugural Ceremony in the United States is supposed to symbolize the peaceful transfer of political power. Podcast 593-Surreal Weekend reviews my reactions to the weekend of January 20th, 2016 from the Inauguration speech of the new President Trump, to the protests on Sunday and a bizarre first-time appearance of the President’s new press secretary. Yes. It was a surreal weekend.

After the new President’s speech, the arguments started almost immediately over how many people watched and attended. Sunday’s protests can only be described as the ‘anti-inaugural’. From talking vagina signs to the thugs smashing windows in Washington to Madonna fantasizing about ‘blowing up the White House‘, this was a was a Surreal Weekend.

FaceBook and Twitter were ghettos of dueling memes and videos posted by furious adherents to one side or another. An old woman berated a fellow passenger on a plane for being a Trump supporter, ending with her being escorted off the plane by police to the cheers of passengers.

If you did not support either mainline candidate you’re in a difficult position. The media believes its job is to react to whatever stimuli is thrown out by Trump’s team. When so called journalists aren’t taking the bait on Trump’s line they’re busy predicting the future. We’re swimming in a sea of partisanship. Pundits discuss the ‘significance’ of protests in urban centers that would have supported any candidate put up by democrats in 2016. News anchors debate something called ‘alternative facts’.

Did you think the tactic of distracting the media with one stunt after another would be over after the election? Think again. Apparently the media will take the bait every time. Hook, line and sinker. Pundits and talking heads will ‘explain’ whatever stunt was employed or argue the reaction to the stunt. ‘Guests’ will appear on every show arguing the merits of the silly outcome of the latest stunt. Popular songs will be written. Memes will be distributed on social media. Videos will be made. People will scream and yell at each other.

What if you support no one. If you don’t believe any of then are going to remove the boot heel on our necks, then what? Substance? Really? Compare the substance and specificity as well as philosophy of the first Reagan inaugural to the vacuum of Trump’s. Examine the difference between the language and intent of the so called protests this weekend to the language of Martin Luther King’s rally in Washington. America’s discourse today is a sad echo of the past. Yes. It was a surreal weekend.

Something Wicked This Way Comes

We don’t think anymore we attack. Attack the messenger. Or attack the source. Attacking the person is always good too. The method is attack and attack and then move on to the next target. This week’s talking head video says what needs to be said. Tomorrow it’s another meme or video. Ignorant of the facts? Unable to put a sentence together? No problem. Just post this meme or video and boom! It’s bad and its going to get worse.

We should certainly give the new president and his team the benefit of the doubt but I do not intend to defend him. He is capable of defending himself. When the new administration does something I think is right, I’ll say so. However, I do think people who supported President Trump all through the campaign have a responsibility to defend him. Trump supporters will have to develop the arguments to defend him and they’ll have to organize against what is already formidable opposition. If you’re a Trump supporter and you’re not our organizing your neighborhoods, good luck in the next election cycles.

I get this feeling there is something evil out there. Something Wicked This Way Comes. Maybe it’s the result of a surreal weekend, but something doesn’t feel right. I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop. I’m not talking about the man in the oval office. I’m not talking about the left’s protests. It is a feeling that I can’t shake.

We’ll see.

(Editor’s Note: Minnesota Governor Mark Dayton collapsed during the State of the State message at the Minnesota State Capitol Monday, adding to the surreal quality of the current time frame. While I find little to agree with the Governor on politically, I have interviewed him and he is a gracious and nice man. The latest reports in the current time frame are that the Governor is doing well.)

Sponsored by Brush Studio in the West End.

 

 

Podcast 580-Bob Davis Podcasts Radio Show-56

Podcast 580-Bob Davis Podcasts Radio Show-56. Four mini podcast for your weekend. It’s time to move beyond talk about fake news and false narratives. Time to work on becoming better citizens. We have to get beyond reactions to get what is needed to create better political structures for the future. People have very high expectations about a Trump presidency. Whether you fear the future or can’t wait for it, the President-Elect’s cabinet nominations are moderate and establishment republicans. Trump’s ideas are philosophically all over the road. The new republican administration may end up being just as statist as a Hillary Clinton presidency. One example is Trump’s penchant for roads and bridges and airports. Given the establishment congress of republican moderates expecting a reduction in the cost and power of the federal government is too much to ask for. Fake News is still ‘in the news’. There were suggestions from the CIA at the end of last week that the Russians ‘could have’ been responsible for the Wikileaks hack. Still no proof though. That doesn’t stop the media from feeding into the Clinton camp narrative that Russia put Trump in the White House. It’s impossible to say what influenced voters in Ohio, Pennsyvania, North Carolina and Florida where Trump won by tight margins. None of these facts stop demands to ‘do something’ about ‘fake news’. FaceBook is caving and censorship is suddenly now a big topic. There have also been reports that Electors (members of the electoral college for 2016) have received death threats. What happens if Trump doesn’t have a majority of electors? What is the goal of people supporting the effort to influence the Electoral College? Have you driven around the country lately? If you had, you would know the United States does not have an ‘infrastructure’ problem. Building new airports, roads and bridges will not create enough new jobs to influence a 16 trillion dollar economy. Moreover, trade protection, cutting taxes on the middle class, increasing spending and government power including military spending is fraught with problems and probably won’t result in economic growth. Where does the money come from for these shiny objects? It has to be taxed or borrowed, sooner or later. For those who supported Trump because he ‘isn’t Hillary’, there are no guarantees he’ll be materially different from Clinton, when it comes to results. Sponsored by Brush Studio in the West End and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul.[Powerpress]

Podcast 576-Bob Davis Podcasts Radio Show-54

Podcast 576-Bob Davis Podcasts Radio Show-54. Hillary’s recount demands and Fidel Castro’s death prove real news stories are out there. Podcast 576-Bob Davis Podcasts Radio Show-54 features a look at the opportunities and challenges confronting the people. I have no endorsement of any major candidate to defend. I have no wish to add to the media reactive political noise. What I can do is help people break out of the political box, by asking some important questions. If Donald J Trump is chosen by the Electoral College and inaugurated in January of 2017, the Republicans will be in the best position to control the Federal and State Governments in decades. However, celebrating republicans should keep in mind, most elected republicans leaders are still ‘establishment’ types. Despite his promises suddenly Trump is backpedaling on repealing the Affordable Care Act, and prosecuting Hillary Clinton. His top advisors are discussing a trillion dollar stimulus package for infrastructure. He’s pulling back on the ‘big beautiful wall’. ‘Moderate’ republicans are also pulling back on  trade policy and managing expectations on foreign policy. It is doubtful republicans will address tough economic challenges with policy fostering dynamic economic growth. While we’re lost in debates about tweets from Trump Tower, The US economy is hampered by too much regulation, excessive debt and spending. Many of the so called social problems in this country can be attributed at least in part to low employment and slow or no economic growth since 2008. This is why it feels like we’re living in the Matrix. With a technology revolution as significant as the industrial revolution we need new ideas about society, politics and government. Instead, we have institutions designed for an agricultural or industrial age that don’t serve us anymore. On top of all that are demographic changes. The Baby Boom population is aging rapidly. Younger people have different ideas about politics, government and society. The future belongs to these younger demographics, and with different ideas about society, ‘Conservative’ and ‘Liberal’ mean different things. To address the challenges of the future will require more of us than reacting to tweets, the latest outrage, or someone’s personality. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul, Hydrus Performance, and X Government Cars.[powepress]

Podcast 529

First Night at EAA. Sunday nights are load in nights for exhibitors, fly-ins, and media at the EAA AirVenture Air Show at Osh Kosh, Wisconsin. I always celebrate with a regular podcast, live from just under the control tower as we start a new week, on the First Night at EAA. It’s late. Everyone is asleep, but I am getting in the last few thoughts on the coming show, and new developments in the political world this weekend. Having just come from the RNC at Cleveland and witnessing the divisions in the Republican party firsthand, it’s a little weird to see the same kinds of fissures developing with the democrats at Philadelphia with the specter of the democrat establishment killing the grassroots too. Throughout this hot and stormy Sunday I’ve been thinking about a recent email exchange with a Trump supporter that says so much about American politics today. A gentleman who normally sends me great jokes via email suddenly swerved into politics exhorting me and a few score others on his email list to ‘vote Trump’. Why? Because Trump is going to get rid of NAFTA and the TPP and bring all the jobs back to the United States. I decided to press him to find out exactly why he thinks what he thinks and why he would take the unusual step of pushing his friends to vote Trump. It took several emails to learn he just ‘feels’ Trump is the best guy, Trump is like Lincoln, Trump knows what to do and he’ll do it, and don’t make me explain this stuff, google it. Then he asks me what I think of the questions I asked him! That serves as a debate in the land of Trump. A place where everyone gets what he wants, when he wants it, because Trump said so. A place where one bright morning a box will arrive from China and everyone will open it up and find a note that reads, “Sorry about taking your job at the bucket factory way back in 1997 but we needed it. Here it is back, slightly used but we hope you’ll forgive us”. There it is people. Donald J. Trump is going to get Uncle Joe his job back at Bethlehem Steel so he and Martha can buy back the 1993 Buick Regal, which the GM plant in Flint will be making again thanks to old ‘I’ll make the trains run on time’ Trump. I realized, while ordering coffee at the concessions stand next to the beautiful B-25 out here on the airfield, that there are a lot of 50+ children out there. Thinking is just too hard. Researching facts takes too much time. Actually learning the contours of an issue is a job no one wants. Lots of final thoughts — for the time being — on the convention, the resignation of Debbie Wasserman Schultz as the DNC chair, and the impending Trump presidency. Or not. Thank God I can talk about airplanes for the next few days! Sponsored by Hydrus Performance.

Podcast 383 – Emmer on Trade

Emmer on Trade. Live from the Nation’s Capital, Washington DC, where it’s all about free trade authority. To talk about it with the Bob Davis Podcasts, Congressman Tom Emmer left the Cannon House Office building, walked a couple of blocks, to where the Mobile Podcast Command Unit was parked. He is the first official interview in the Podcast Mobile Command Unit. At issue, votes for three measures constituting fast track trade authority for President Obama on Pacific nations, not including China. Opposition to this package of bills being considered takes two forms; Some Republicans don’t want to grant this president any more authority, especially when considering his pen and love for overstepping pesky things like the constitution. Democrats oppose because they believe this trade deal will hurt American workers, and American jobs. Tom’s take is, this package of bills, particularly the TPA (Trans Pacific Trade Authority) actually limits the president’s unilateral authority, at least when it comes to congress, which is one of the reasons he supports the legislation. Are you a trade protectionist, or a free trader? What are the benefits, drawbacks of each position? Do you think a president should be given ‘fast track’ authority to negotiate these deals, considering the possibility for this president, or future president’s to include initiatives that could actually hurt the country, a concern for everyone regardless of where they ‘lean’ on the political spectrum. If you speak in political circles you’re going to hear “They shipped all our jobs to China” more than once from democrats and republicans. While IT, higher labor costs have been factors in company’s decisions to outsource and have cost American jobs, some say the country is much better off economically with free trade, than trying to protect American jobs. China itself (not a part of this trade deal by the way) has already eliminated millions of jobs with IT. Millions more jobs will be lost even more technology is installed in the coming years. What’s effected American jobs the most? Poor economic growth. Another factor in pushing this agreement is the idea that American soft power (trade and diplomatic relationships) is what we should be developing, because its less costly than troops and ships and weapons systems. But without so called hard power, is soft power possible to sustain? Apparently a congressmen some consider to be conservative thinks so. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul. (Editor’s Note: You don’t often see congressmen come to media on a backstreet behind the Cannon Office Building, and I want to personally thank Tom Emmer for doing so.)

 

Podcast 378

Mercury Retrograde. Astrologists say when Mercury goes ‘retrograde’ it wreaks havoc with mechanical and electronic equipment, makes communications difficult and puts teeth in Murphy’s Law. In this case ‘retrograde’ means to go backwards. Now, Mercury does not go backwards; its orbit around our sun does not change one iota, but it supposedly ‘appears’ to be moving backward in the sky. What does a mercury retrograde do to a fifteen year old ambulance, repurposed as a mobile podcast studio, traveling across the country? Listen to this podcast and find out. From Illinois to Indiana, visiting an old friend, with ambitious plans to install Ham and CB radio communications, and WIFI Antenna. Attempting to this, we encountered nothing but problems. Oddly enough, Mercury Retrogrades are supposed to be good for making plans and catching up with old friends, finding good deals, and resting up. While most women seem to have a hundred ‘best friends’, men pretty much have two, or one. It’s great to hang out with someone who has known you since you were a kid; someone you haven’t talked to in decades, but you pick up right where you left off. Lest some readers decry all this reliance on astrology, there doesn’t seem to be much difference between the hokum of the stars and the hokum of today’s economists, who despite accolades, fur hats, and purple capes, can’t seem to figure out whether the US economy is growing, not growing, or contracting. Even worse, every ‘news’ story you read on the subject seems to repeat one fairy tale or outright lie, over and over again. Don’t worry though, no one’s looking at economic stories, they’re too busy counting the Republican candidates for President and getting lost in the details of a presidential campaign that has come too early, and too loudly for any civilized people. While the news media covers this political circus, the real political circus is about to pass a trade law — supported by the “Chambers of Italian Fascism” — Americans are forced to turn to Julian Assange and Wikileaks for the details, which suggest a far reaching agreement bigger than NAFTA with provisions that have little to do with free trade. How is your congressman voting? While the FBI circles over our cities in unmarked civilian planes, listening to our cell phone conversations, and Republican congress is also about to pass a ‘patch’ that will save Obama Care if key provisions are struck down by the US Supreme Court. Hey wait! Didn’t republicans run on repealing the ACA? Surprise! Sponsored by X Government Cars.