Podcast 604-We Don’t Need No Stinking Principles

Bob Davis Podcast Radio Show #67

In Podcast 604-We Don’t Need No Stinking Principles. He is known as Milo. A self described agent provocateur. A guy who took it to the left using the left’s tactic. A person who could cause left wingers to spontaneously combust. Taken down by the right. Another personality raised up to do people’s thinking for them. Someone to speak for so called conservatives.

These days videos and articles by personalities suffice as arguments. Someone getting the best of you on FaceBook? Don’t like someone’s tweet? Bam! Throw up the Milo video and the other guy is toast. Want to say something about politics? Post someone’s video or article about what you think. It’s the ‘What He Said’ method of political discourse. Of course the bigger they are the harder they fall.

Suddenly a heavily edited video tape from the near past emerged. Milo allegedly appearing to condone pedophilia, Goodbye Breitbart. See ya later Book Deal. Forget about taking the purple at the Vatican Conclave known as ‘CPAC‘. Post that Milo video now and you’re a pedophile too. There’s a vacuum in the market for ‘What He Said’ videos and articles. Don’t worry. Plenty of future Milo’s into the breech, boys.

Principles Over Personalities

We’re urged to put principles over personalities. What principles? What are the principles of the republican party? Free markets. Oh wait. We’re talking about trade protection. Republicans and so called conservatives are for Freedom too. Oops! Not if you’re taking about increasing NSA surveillance of people we don’t like. The GOP is for lower deficits and ‘smaller’ government. Oh wait. We’re going to have a trillion dollar stimulus package and cut taxes. So. Yeah. Before people can support principles over personalities a political movement has to have some principles. Neither the republicans or the democrats have any. Welcome to Podcast 604-We Don’t Need No Stinking Principles.

Business Unfriendly

Also in Podcast 604-We Don’t Need No Stinking Principles. A new study ranks the most business friendly states. Vermont and Minnesota lead the least business friendly states. Nevada, Texas and South Dakota lead the most business friendly. The biggest problem according to the study is that the least business friendly states seemingly have no intention of addressing the thicket of taxes and regulations that prevent the formation of small scalable businesses. A little principle here might be useful. Of course most of the time its republicans in states like Minnesota that often are the first to propose more government solutions to problems created by too much government.

Taxing Robots

Robots and AI are nothing more than sophisticated tools. People think nothing of using the wheel or a wrench but break out in a cold sweat when confronted with the feared robot. Bill Gates has a solution for all that. Tax Robots. Employees are usually the biggest cost center for businesses. Its natural to want to cut those costs as much as possible. Cutting costs and freeing human capital to do better things is a natural part of human progress. Let’s slow it down by making robots more expensive. Principles? Lots to talk about in Podcast 604-We Don’t Need No Stinking Principles.

Sponsored by Hydrus Performance and Brush Studio in the West end.


Podcast 583-Summer Storm

Podcast 583-Summer Storm. Nothing better than a summer storm to help you forget the bitter cold. It’s well below zero in Minnesota. While Europe and parts of the South consider mid twenties to thirties ‘bitter’ cold, in the Upper Midwest we’re talking minus twenty, thirty or even forty below. This is the kind of cold you don’t need windchill to exaggerate. If you’re in the deep freeze this podcast is designed to provide a half an hour or so of relief.

Last summer I had a chance to record a huge summer storm that rolled through the area. The storm track on this podcast isn’t edited. It was recorded in real time, complete with bouts of heavy rain and thunder. Interspersed throughout the storm are some thought starters to help subscribers to the Bob Davis Podcasts mentally escape.

Maybe when you were a kid your family did a road trip to Florida. Or while in college you and your friends took a trip through the mountains, or the desert. Many have had one of those summer college jobs for some agricultural company that required rolling around on back roads across Iowa and North Dakota, recording the growth of corn, or whatever those companies require people to write down on clipboards.

For me, sitting in a broken down old ’67 Ford Galaxy in the fields and watching the storms roll in across the prairie in Rural Illinois, will always remind me of deep summer. It’s easy for people to say, “Why don’t you get on a plane and go to LA, or Hawaii”. Yes, it sure would be nice. Thing is, not all of us can do that.

As we head into the deep freeze, keep this podcast handy. Put on your headphones for Podcast 583-Summer Storm and prepare to be transported to my porch during an awesome summer storm. Of course, you’ll have to put up with me talking in your ear about places I’ve been and places to go, but it’s better than looking out the window wishing it wasn’t twenty five below.

It is true we welcome the cold weather, at least the first blush and especially at Christmas Time. Trust me, though. You’re going to want to escape. If you can’t get away as soon as you’d like to or at all this year, Podcast 583-Summer Storm is your ticket to paradise. Summer in the Midwest. Storms. Thunder. Steady Rain. The hum of summer insects. Thoughts of rolling down two lane roads cutting through green fields. Freedom is a clean windshield and a full tank of gas.

Sponsored By Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul and Hydrus Performance.

Podcast 569-Final State by State Round Up

Podcast 569-Final State by State Round Up. Where the state polls stand for presidential candidates right before election day 2016. This podcast does not endorse a candidate. I will not make you feel good or bad about your vote, or non vote. I will not attach ‘indexes’ and ‘percentage probabilities’ to potential wins or losses for the candidates. In Podcast 569-Final State by State Round Up, how candidates fare in each of the states according to existing polls. Partisan and advocacy journalists don’t provide insight on survey research. I do. What you’re getting from the cable news channels and advocacy news ‘websites’ are charlatans pushing their point of view. Fact is, no one knows how the election will play out in any of the so called battleground states. That’s because despite all the best effort, even the best political researchers are challenged to determine who is actually going to show up to vote especially when the polls show a close vote, within the margins of error. Elections are made on who votes. Not the number of signs. Not the number of people who show up at rallies. Not who ran the best TV spots. It’s all about getting the vote out. Once the vote is in, it’s all about counting. Is the election rigged? In a sense, yes. The United States is a representative republic which elects its executive not by the popular vote but through an institution known as the Electoral College. Some states’ electoral slates are proportionally chosen. Some states select electoral slates by party. The electors themselves have already been chosen. They will actually select the President of the United States on December 15th, 2016. In some states the popular vote determines how the electors are ‘supposed’ to vote. In some states it depends on which party’s candidate wins the overall vote. No so called ‘rogue elector‘ has ever been prosecuted for voting outside the state statute guidelines. In the event of an electoral tie, the election will be decided by the US House of Representatives. One thing is true, the republicans are the ones talking about ‘rigged’ elections right now, but if Donald Trump wins the presidency they’ll stop talking about that immediately and the democrats will start talking about things being ‘rigged’. The only thing coverage of these kinds of conspiracies do is reduce the faith Americans and the rest of the world has in the electoral process. In reality, ‘rigging’ a national election is a difficult task, despite what movies and conspiracy theorists say. If you are concerned about your candidate winning the election, the best thing you can do is turn off the TV and get out and help them win by driving people to the polls or making last minute calls, poll watching, or if you’re qualified, volunteering as an election judge. Thankfully we’ll be looking at election night results in the next podcast. Sponsored by Hydrus Performance and Brush Studio, in the West End, Saint Louis Park.

Podcast 566-BobDavisRadioShow-50

Podcast 566-BobDavisRadioShow-50. October final State By State Poll roundup. Podcast 566-BobDavisRadioShow-50 covers the hysteria around polling these days and what to watch for in the final two weeks of campaigning. Charlatans abound in the political world. Almost everyone telling you one candidate, or the other, is going to win has a hidden agenda. Some want to make themselves famous. Some are shilling for a candidate. Ignorance on what political research actually is has now commingled with Trump’s claims the polls and thus the election are rigged. My response to a subscriber email about push polls is typical. Someone, somewhere talked about push polls so now everyone thinks the polls are push polls. Or, the John Podesta email suggesting internal polling over same democrats has everyone convinced all the pollsters are in the tank for Clinton. Sigh. The polls used on Real Clear Politics, and the polls I use for Podcast 566-BobDavisRadioShow-50 are polls taken by media organizations or university political science departments. A push poll is a poll designed to ‘push’ a respondent into voting one way or another. Usually there is very little polling data collected in so called Push Polls. Are the polls right? A good poll isn’t right or wrong, it is reliable. Listen to this show and you’ll know more about polling than anyone on your block. Listen to the other podcasts about polling I have done and you’ll understand more about what is going on. First, it is not a popular vote that elects the President of the United States. The US Election is an electoral affair so all the action is in the state by state polls. You can aggregate these polls. You can average these polls. However, you cannot aggregate and average them and place a probability on whether one or the other candidate will win. All the poll averaging does is give you a birds eye view of the battlefield. The must win electoral states change election cycle to election cycle. No predictions will be made here. I will give you a truthful and honest analysis of where the mainline campaigns stand on the eve of election day, 2016. Sponsored by Hydrus Performance, Ryan Plumbing and X Government Cars.

Podcast 555-The Bob Davis Radio Show-46

Podcast 555-The Bob Davis Radio Show-46. An all new podcast doubling as the radio show for this week. There’s two considerations here. First, if you’re a subscriber to The Bob Davis Podcasts, repeating content in the radio show is, well, repetitive. Second, the podcasts this week, whether Podcast 554 (State by State poll run down) or Podcast 553 (Interview with AgoraFest‘s Nik Ludwig), the content doesn’t lend itself well to be excerpted. So, for Podcast 555-The Bob Davis Radio Show-46, I did a completely new segment updating the polling data for just the so called ‘Toss-Up’ States in Election 2016 with special attention paid to the Senate races in key states. I also added a segment with a little bit more of a primer about polls, and how they are used or misused in media coverage. These two benchmarks; Podcast 554 and Podcast 555-The Bob Davis Radio Show-46 are great to listen to because then when you hear or see new information on state by state polling, you’ll understand which states are important and how the polling in that state may have changed. You’ll also understand trending polls from different pollsters isn’t necessarily providing an accurate picture of what’s going to happen when people actually vote. I use the electoral map from Real Clear Politics and you can follow along if you want. Others are available. Almost all of them are interactive. Finally, some words about Individual Sovereignty. There’s a lot of back-and-forth in this election cycle and a lot of coverage of the back-and-forth; What this one said about that one, whether this is going to effect his or her poll numbers. There’s a lot of content from shills defending one candidate or attacking another. There’s been very little actual discussion about what freedom is or how these new representatives, senators and presidents are going to insure we get to keep it. We can get distracted by the shiny things in the woods, or we can stay focused on claiming our personal sovereignty. How we personally define freedom in the coming months and years is going to become very important. The current two-party system is coming to an end. That is; The Republican and Democratic parties have lost touch with the people. Something new is coming and we need to make sure whatever that is protects and defends our individual freedom. Sponsored by X Government Cars.

Podcast 554-Latest Election State By State Polls

Podcast 554-Latest Election State By State Polls. For you political junkies, which includes me, it’s been a month since the last analysis of political polls state by state, and I promised another one at the end of September, 2016. If you want to compare the two state by state poll podcasts to really get a sense of movement check out Podcast 541. I do not intend to analyze the debate. I will not tell you who won the debate. I will not tell you whether people pay attention to the debates. None of the current state by state polls were taken after the debates so they do not reflect the effects on either candidate of the debates. With this in mind, over 80 million people watched the September 26th debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. The next state-by-state poll roundup podcast at the end of October will show what effect – if any – the debates may or may not have had. The biggest change between this podcast and the podcast in late August is that there are now more ‘toss up’ states — that is states with poll averages for president within the margin of error. In Podcast 554-State By State Polls, I am drawing on data from Real Clear Politics. Follow the link directly to an interactive electoral map of the United States and follow along, or may your own map. The tightening could be knock on effects from Clinton’s bad week of September 11th, or it could just be due to more polls closer to the election, when respondents start paying attention and are more likely to give responses. You’ll have to listen for my conclusions about whether more toss up states mean anything, but for the most part, both candidates are within the margins in 2012 and 2008 in the states they lead, or are trading leads. The big questions remain Florida, Ohio, Pennsyvania, Virginia, and to a lesser extent North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, and western states like Colorado, Arizona and Nevada. This is a state by state electoral election, so the national polls don’t matter, and the snap polls on who won the debate don’t matter. All that matters is the candidate’s performance, and get out the vote efforts for them in key electoral states. Listen and learn the state by state strongholds, battlegrounds, advantages and disadvantages, roughly a month out. We’ll come back at the end of October and again just before the election in early November, and see how the campaigning, media, and news events have changed the political landscape. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing of Saint Paul.

Podcast 548

What’s Wrong With Hillary? Breaking News means a walk and talk podcast. At issue? Hillary Clinton collapses again, this time after leaving a 9-11 memorial event because of ‘heat exhaustion’. Her departure was so unanticipated she had to wait for the limo, and while waiting could not stand without help, then collapsed while trying to get in. On the heels of a coughing fit on her own airplane during the first press conference she’s held in weeks, coughing fits, weird reactions to questions and lots of conspiracy theorists opining about what ails her, now the mainstream media will be asking What’s Wrong With Hillary? Her doctors say she has walking pneumonia. Others say she suffers from the knock on effects of a blood clot on the brain from a fall when she was Secretary of State. I have some experience with this, since my own father had a blood clot on the brain and I can tell you the knock on effects aren’t good. Regardless of what is wrong with her, whether anything is wrong with her, whether a release of her medical records will make any difference at this point, 60 days from the general election former Secretary Hillary Clinton’s health is now being questioned. Not good for any presidential campaign, and very not good for a campaign which has had issues with transparency since the get go. Subscribers to The Bob Davis Podcasts have been warned repeatedly not to put stock in national polls. Watch what happens now as the media touts a new poll showing Clinton up by 5, taken before the latest health episode. Watch state by state polls in the coming weeks for the real story. Ohio, Florida, Georgia, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada have all been placed in the ‘toss up’ category, and Trump now leads by a point or so in a few of those key races as the numbers tighten up. Another major story impacting now is the bond markets and the Federal Reserve. The stock market dropped more than three hundred points last week in a nasty correction. A health scare for the democratic candidate is one thing. A health scare for the world economy is quite another. Fasten your seats belts – again – election 2016 is getting more and more interesting, even if the potential outcome either way is a horror show. Sponsored by Hydrus Performance and X Government Cars.

Podcast 541

Podcast 541. Electoral College Yoga. Get ready to twist your brain into pretzel like shapes as I talk about the electoral college, polls, and what the benchmarks for Election 2016 are so far. I’ll do another benchmark in about a month and one just before the election in late October, or early November. There are a lot of caveats on polling data. While most media people and their viewers seem to want to talk about national presidential preference polls, the proof of the pudding is in the state by state polls. The United States does not elect its presidents with a national vote. In fact, a presidential election is fifty state elections. Voters are selecting a slate of electors, chosen and voting generally according to state law and state party rules. So when you hear one candidate is ‘ahead’ over another in a national poll it really doesn’t mean anything. In 2008 and again in 2012 Republicans in particular were so hopeful based on national preference polls that if you said McCain or Mitt Romney wasn’t going to win, you were ‘raining on the parade’. But, if you looked closely at state polls in those election cycles, the outcome was not a surprise. State polls have their own problems; Smaller sample size, different polling methodologies, and in some states they are no polls until just before the election. While its not advisable to compare different polls of different sources and methodologies, we do it all the time. We’re looking for trends primarily. Currently while Donald J. Trump leads Hillary Clinton in a national presidential preference poll, the state polls tell a completely different story. It’s not a good story for republicans. The case isn’t closed. Trump still has time, but time is fleeting. I don’t support any candidate. I’m not working for any candidate. I’m not going to tell you how to vote. I’m also not going to spin the polling data to make you think something can happen, or is going to happen. If you want the straight talk on what’s going on, the Bob Davis Podcasts is the place to check back for these benchmark state-by-state analyses as we progress to Election Day 2016. Sponsored by Karow Contracting and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul.

Podcast 475

Fight For Your Caucus. Web Designer, Senate District Chair and CD5 Secretary Mitch Rossow joins the podcast to talk about the latest misguided initiative by mainstream republicans in Minnesota. State Representative Steve Garofalo and others want to get rid of the caucuses in Minnesota. Oddly enough, before Super Tuesday, the reason for getting rid of the caucus system was low participation. On Super Tuesday Minnesota experienced a record turnout for its caucuses. So now, apparently, there are too many people caucusing. Isn’t that what we want? Seems like the truth is those in power don’t like the caucus system because it allows for the grass roots to develop new leaders. Critics say the caucuses are too ‘inside’, but aren’t the critics the real insiders? It would be so much easier if the goons in Saint Paul picked party leaders and candidates rather than the citizens. The caucus is one of the few opportunities average citizens have to participate in and influence the political process. Democrats in the state are concerned about this initiative, since the late Senator Paul Wellstone developed the movement that ultimately put him in office through this channel. Mitch Rossow has developed a precinct organization training program, and a training program for caucus conveners. Precinct organizing is the next step after caucuses and its the quickest way for citizens to take back their local representation and eventually state legislature and statewide offices. The enemy of the Republican is the Republican. While Democrats in the state post training videos well before caucuses, and have programs to bring volunteers in to help their caucus attendees understand the process, republicans never got around to doing much of anything to help local precincts with their caucuses. Now they want to do away with it entirely. Moral of the story; the MNGOP talks a lot about democracy and inclusiveness, but doesn’t walk the talk. One wonders what it is that they actually do; Not much of anything. Most of the time the state party is whining and asking the local political units for help. On the DFL side, it’s the reverse. Maybe there a lesson there for the entrenched perfumed princes, hidden behind a security wall at their office in Cedar Riverside. What a joke. With so many new participants this year, maybe a new crop of leaders is being harvested. It can’t happen soon enough. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating and X Government Cars.

Podcast 397

Levy Trump and Cecil. No, it’s not a law firm. No it’s not a children’s book. How today’s news cycle obsessions can become tomorrow’s forgotten story. What is worth your time? From MH-370 to Ebola today’s lead story is tomorrow’s forgotten junk, to be thrown out with the pizza box from last week, and the recycling. Today’s obsessions include a lion who has attained personhood by virtue of a name and a graphic demise at the hands of a opportunistic hunter, who happens to be a dentist from the suburbs of Minneapolis-Saint Paul, and a political candidate who is the leading republican, according to the polls. You’re not allowed to criticize Trump, or you’ll be blocked or shouted down. Fortunately for those who support the New York real estate and casino developer, former TV reality show host and purveyor of Miss America and Miss Universe beauty pageants, there is no criticism of the candidate himself. Oddly enough, people who claim the polls are rigged, also claim the polls show Trump to be the best chance for Republicans to win the 2016 presidential race. Yes, people are making wild claims about Trump’s potential for success. If republicans and the country wants him, fine. But let’s take a look at polling, political polling and the foibles of making predictions about a presidential race which is yet to gel. Not only are there fifty state primary elections or caucuses to get through, there are actually fifty state elections that make up the Presidential election itself. What about Trump as a third party candidate? Minnesota’s Jessie Ventura is offered up as an example. How does one state’s gubernatorial race in the 90’s predict a win for ‘The Donald’ in a three way presidential race? Does it? What about Ross Perot’s experience in the 1990’s. The media spurs uniformed speculation driven by polls that cannot and do not predict Trump’s, or anyone else’s performance in an election more than a year from now. It’s time for a frank discussion about political polling and its limitations, aside from allowing Cable TV news the opportunity to show graphics and charts and make baseless announcements about front-runners and ‘winners’. As far as Republicans are concerned, no matter who is nominated it’s going to be very tough to build a winning election organization with people who are frustrated, angry and scared of the future, and who have not demonstrated an ability to organize, work with each other, or get out the vote in the recent past. Republicans seem to be looking for a personality to lead them out of the wilderness, rather than take it upon themselves to start solving problems and present a viable agenda. Not a good omen for the 2016 cycle. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul