Podcast 554-Latest Election State By State Polls. For you political junkies, which includes me, it’s been a month since the last analysis of political polls state by state, and I promised another one at the end of September, 2016. If you want to compare the two state by state poll podcasts to really get a sense of movement check out Podcast 541. I do not intend to analyze the debate. I will not tell you who won the debate. I will not tell you whether people pay attention to the debates. None of the current state by state polls were taken after the debates so they do not reflect the effects on either candidate of the debates. With this in mind, over 80 million people watched the September 26th debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. The next state-by-state poll roundup podcast at the end of October will show what effect – if any – the debates may or may not have had. The biggest change between this podcast and the podcast in late August is that there are now more ‘toss up’ states — that is states with poll averages for president within the margin of error. In Podcast 554-State By State Polls, I am drawing on data from Real Clear Politics. Follow the link directly to an interactive electoral map of the United States and follow along, or may your own map. The tightening could be knock on effects from Clinton’s bad week of September 11th, or it could just be due to more polls closer to the election, when respondents start paying attention and are more likely to give responses. You’ll have to listen for my conclusions about whether more toss up states mean anything, but for the most part, both candidates are within the margins in 2012 and 2008 in the states they lead, or are trading leads. The big questions remain Florida, Ohio, Pennsyvania, Virginia, and to a lesser extent North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, and western states like Colorado, Arizona and Nevada. This is a state by state electoral election, so the national polls don’t matter, and the snap polls on who won the debate don’t matter. All that matters is the candidate’s performance, and get out the vote efforts for them in key electoral states. Listen and learn the state by state strongholds, battlegrounds, advantages and disadvantages, roughly a month out. We’ll come back at the end of October and again just before the election in early November, and see how the campaigning, media, and news events have changed the political landscape. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing of Saint Paul.
Podcast 541. Electoral College Yoga. Get ready to twist your brain into pretzel like shapes as I talk about the electoral college, polls, and what the benchmarks for Election 2016 are so far. I’ll do another benchmark in about a month and one just before the election in late October, or early November. There are a lot of caveats on polling data. While most media people and their viewers seem to want to talk about national presidential preference polls, the proof of the pudding is in the state by state polls. The United States does not elect its presidents with a national vote. In fact, a presidential election is fifty state elections. Voters are selecting a slate of electors, chosen and voting generally according to state law and state party rules. So when you hear one candidate is ‘ahead’ over another in a national poll it really doesn’t mean anything. In 2008 and again in 2012 Republicans in particular were so hopeful based on national preference polls that if you said McCain or Mitt Romney wasn’t going to win, you were ‘raining on the parade’. But, if you looked closely at state polls in those election cycles, the outcome was not a surprise. State polls have their own problems; Smaller sample size, different polling methodologies, and in some states they are no polls until just before the election. While its not advisable to compare different polls of different sources and methodologies, we do it all the time. We’re looking for trends primarily. Currently while Donald J. Trump leads Hillary Clinton in a national presidential preference poll, the state polls tell a completely different story. It’s not a good story for republicans. The case isn’t closed. Trump still has time, but time is fleeting. I don’t support any candidate. I’m not working for any candidate. I’m not going to tell you how to vote. I’m also not going to spin the polling data to make you think something can happen, or is going to happen. If you want the straight talk on what’s going on, the Bob Davis Podcasts is the place to check back for these benchmark state-by-state analyses as we progress to Election Day 2016. Sponsored by Karow Contracting and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul.
Final Primary In South Dakota. A gonzo talk podcast from the driveway aboard Mobile Podcast Command as we load in and run through the checklists before final departure to the Mount Rushmore State. Why South Dakota? First it’s been awhile since a road trip. Second, coverage of the Presidential Preference Primaries and Caucuses began with Wisconsin Governor Walker’s candidacy announcement last summer, continued into Iowa in February, onto South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, on through to Texas and back home in the first couple of weeks of March. So it is a fitting end that one of the states with the latest primaries, as opposed to the earliest, is South Dakota. While all eyes are focused on the June 7th primary in California, because Bernie Sanders is giving Hillary Clinton fits there, do you think anyone is going to cover voting in South Dakota? That’s why I am going. Aside from the fact that South Dakota is awesome, from the Sturgis celebration to Deadwood, Mount Rushmore, Rapid City and more. Even with the contest between Sanders and Clinton in the Golden State, the media still seems to be focused on finding some negative way to define ‘presumptive’ republican nominee Donald Trump and by extension, the Republican Party. First it was Trump the authoritarian. Then it was Trump the fascist with his incitements to violence – which as an aside seems to be on the other side, with ‘anti-trump protesters’ spitting at passive Trump supporters and my sense is this gets the New York Developer more votes and may just put him in the White House but I digress. Suddenly Trump is Zachary Taylor, 12th president of the United States, and the Republican Party is the Whig Party. Is this an apt comparison? Maybe, even with the scare quotes to describe Taylor and Whigs, but then again, kind of not really. Politics feels like heavy metal, the energy is so low and the results so negative. It’s gonna be good to get out on the road. Sponsored by Brush Studio and Hydrus.
Choices. A companion to the ‘slipping into summer’ podcast for the political junkies. Choices. The Choices we make, politically, As the primary season draws to a close, Memorial Day Weekend is a good place to take stock of what has happened in this tumultuous and unpredictable 2016 Presidential Preference Primary and Caucus season. In Podcast 503 there was some discussion of an uneasy feeling seeing FB posts from politicos about the weekend’s conventions and promotions of party unity. This gets explored a lot more deeply in Podcast 504; Choices. Republican presidential preference primary and caucus voters have settled on Donald J. Trump as their choice for nominee of the republican party. While it remains to be seen whether Trump actually gets to the RNC with enough delegates to clinch the nomination, or whether some other fate befalls the New York Developer and Realty Television Star, it’s significant that republican and so called ‘conservative’ voters have settled on three major pools of thought. The ‘Trumpist’ pool which seems to be about winning the argument, the evangelist and self-described ‘constitutionalist’ pool represented by the Cruz supporters and the establishment pool, which is about the status quo. There’s one other pool, but it’s really a puddle; The Libertarian pool which is the only group that actually wants to reduce the size, scope and power of government. On the democrat side, is an establishment political operator who can only be described as a Statist (with a capital S) and a self described Democratic Socialist, really a socialist and also a STATIST. So, voters have settled on a political insider who is also a statist, a socialist and a populist statist, with second choices that include politicians who claim to be ‘conservative’ but are also going to make sure ‘The Government’ operates more efficiently. Sigh. What are the takeaways? These are the people the voters – who have been exhorted to get involved – have chosen. Of these three or four, one will be President of The United States. In November the voters will choose a president, a congress and a third of the US Senate, as well as a slew of statewide and state legislative and local officers across the country. What will it mean? What will happen? The media keeps trying to tell us, but we cannot know the future. We’re just going to have to wait and see. Takeaways for political junkies on Memorial Day Weekend. Sponsored by Brush Studio, in the West End, Saint Louis Park.
Surprises. In an early spring shocker, Senator Ted Cruz suspends his campaign after losing the Indiana Republican Presidential Preference Primary to New Yorker Donald Trump. On the democrat side, Bernie Sanders bested Hillary Clinton in the Hoosier State Democratic Primary. The story of the week, however, is the shocking suspension of the Ted Cruz campaign. Surprises. Cruz supporters were preparing for a contested republican convention. Though stories appeared late last week suggesting — off the record of course — Cruz campaign officials were ‘demoralized’ due to polls showing at least double digit leads in Indiana for Trump, the Senator’s introduction of Californian Carly Fiorina as his ‘running mate’ would suggest the campaign was still thinking about the Golden State and its hundred plus delegates as late as two weeks ago. Media story lines have now shifted to the ‘inevitability’ of a Trump nomination, or that Trump is the ‘presumptive’ nominee for the GOP. These kinds of over reactions to Trump’s Indiana win are to be expected in a self serving Media, but it’s still premature. Certainly one cannot predict the future. While it’s true that Trump’s path to the nomination is clearer in the remaining state primaries, with the absence of Cruz, the actual delegate count in Cleveland remains to be determined. It would be unwise for the Trump campaign or the media to count the republican establishment out. Down? Yes. But not out. Surprises. Then there is the question of what happened to Cruz? Are self identifying ‘conservatives’ finally settling on Trump, as opposed to Cruz? Was it a mistake for Cruz to encourage talk show hosts to campaign with him and were all the fasts, comparisons to George Washington and religious exhortations a turn off for some? And, what about the #nevertrump crowd? Looks like another talk-show-blogger-host effort that failed miserably. Finally, to get a real sense of the surprise inside the Cruz campaign after tonight’s bombshell, we talk to one of the campaign’s state coordinators, Mandy Benz. A tough night for someone who has worked very hard for her candidate and what she believed in, which deserves respect regardless of your political views. (Editor’s Note: Late breaking news, rumors that John Kasich is out, and the RNC is supporting Donald Trump as the presumptive nominee. This changes the picture regarding Trump’s delegate count in upcoming primaries.)Sponsored by Hydrus Performance and Brush Studio in the West End, Saint Louis Park, Minnesota.
Key West. Not what you’d expect. What is the urge to travel all about? Is it a search for that ‘perfect’ place? Something fixed in the mind? A weather-beaten cottage on the beach, in the moonlight? A mountain town in West Virginia, or Tennessee? The high desert? High in the Rockies in Colorado, or Montana, or the pine country of Northern Arizona. ‘The Search’ brought the Bob Davis Podcasts to the Florida Keys. While the keys north of Key West are slightly less ‘touristy’, close to what it must have been like in the 1950’s or 1960’s, Key West seems to have had a little too much success. If you decide to come to any of the keys in season, planning ahead is ‘key’. Even RV Road Rangers will need to make reservations, and will have to research the best places to park, lest you end up in a gravel pit somewhere near a swamp. And no, you won’t be able to park on the beach overnight. Standing on a corner anywhere in Key West one gets the impression that the best thing to do would be to rent a boat and head for the uninhabited smaller Keys that dot the water around the ‘big’ keys, if you want peace and quiet. God knows how much that is. There is something magical about this place, but it is getting shouted down and drowned out by commercialism and tourist pandering that sometimes takes your breath away. 145 dollars for a campsite for one night. 15 dollars to walk through a museum that features a video from a documentary done 20 years ago, and some artifacts from a treasure hunt. Breaking Bad and ‘I’m With Stupid’ T-shirts. Unless you’re staying at an expensive resort, you won’t really have access to a great beach. Vacancies? In season? Now that’s comedy. Peace and quiet? Everywhere you go you’ll be bombarded with music, in various forms of live. Old Town Key West is homey. The people all through the Keys are amazing and helpful. Key West may be considered a rival to the resorts in Puerto Rico, The Virgin Islands, and other places in the Caribbean, but it doesn’t quite rise to the level of services seen in those kinds of places. Sometimes it feels like the Jersey Shore, but the Jersey Shore actually does ‘Beach Town’ better, in season. Back on Florida’s amazing Interstates, as The Search’ continues, heading for the Gulf Coast. Listen all the way through for a little surprise, especially if you’re still in the frozen north. Sponsored by Brush Studio and Hydrus.(Editor’s Note: Got a message from my best friend in Arizona today. I didn’t just mispronounce Islamorada’s name, I butchered it. My deepest apologies to people who live there, who will have a good laugh I am sure. I won’t even attempt a phonetic spelling. I’ll just have to live with that massive mistake, although I’ll hate it.)
State Governors Revolt. As New York City gets its first Ebola patient, State Governors now want their own protocols for those coming into their states from West Africa. New York, New Jersey, Florida, Illinois and other states may soon put in place screening protocols that are more stringent than what the Federal Government has put in place. Are Governors ahead of the President on this issue? Governors have to be decisive in a crisis rather than contemplative. The White House keeps saying stricter state protocols will mean aid workers won’t be able to go TO West Africa, but the problem is those coming back FROM Ebola stricken areas in West Africa. Could the CDC charter US carriers to take aid workers to Africa and bring them back, with a mandatory 21 day quarantine whether the returnee had Ebola or not? Call it ‘hysteria’ but the fact is, people are concerned. Telling them not to panic isn’t going to stop panic. The President has to act decisively to address this, not with political theater and not by telling people what he’s GOING to do. Would Airlines cease flights from these regions eventually, since they are responsible for their passengers safety? If Obama had been Governor of Illinois, is it possible he would be better equipped to handle this kind of situation? Meanwhile, there are irresponsible ‘journalists’ out there telling stories of Ebola ‘victims’ being ‘disappeared’, with no named sources, no confirmation of stories, or sourced to some other blog or article. On the political front, yet more polls, less than two weeks from Election 2014 announcing Republicans will win control of the US Senate. Polls in key states are tightening. Some states the GOP thought were wins a few weeks ago, are now in play. The same is happening with some democrat races. A new study shows, in statewide races decided within a point, Democrats win two thirds of the time, and for races within 2 to 4 points Democrats win half the time. Not good odds for Republicans in close races. Another concern is that early voting will increase the number of non citizens voting this year. Non citizens usually vote for Democrats. Now, these are wild cards, but take them into considering when everyone in the media is jumping on the Republican ‘wave’ bandwagon. Perhaps the best bellwether is Democrats who are already developing excuse stories. Republicans will win because they are capitalizing on unreasonable hatred of the President. Yet, Obama’s strongest supporters in 2008 and 2012 are suffering the most under his economic and social policies. Americans are not ‘divided’. There’s no ‘all blue’ or ‘all red’, we are divided politically by issue, not party. Republicans could win the Senate. Or not. We won’t know until after people vote on November 4th. Sharyl Atkinsson’s new book is out and it is said she proves bias at the top networks. Or, does she prove management at the big broadcasting companies are cowards? Sponsored by X Government Cars!
An Election 2013 Special Report: Live from Minneapolis Mayoral Candidate Cam Winton’s campaign wrap party, election night in South Minneapolis. Special Guests Cam Winton, Mitch Berg, CD5 Republican Chair Nancy Laroche, candidates David Pascoe, Katy Fulkerson, Mitch Rossow and a cast of characters. Plus my analysis of the impact of key races in Virginia, New Jersey and Alabama’s 1st Congressional District. This podcast has an interesting audio overlay; We’re discussing moderate candidates Chris Christie and the ‘Unity’ message coming out of New Jersey and Virginia, as well as Tea Party losses in Virginia and Alabama, from the campaign wrap party for a moderate candidate for Mayor of Minneapolis who lost his race. Sponsored by www.Xgovernmentcars.com.
While I had worked in New York City and lived in New Jersey for almost two years, I had never been to the Jersey shore. I never even went to the shore during all the years I lived out east in Virginia and Maryland. So I was amazed by what I saw taking a road trip from Cape May to Atlantic City and points north. Really cool. I am back from my trip out east! Join me as I check out the Jersey Shore, and make some observations about change in our lives, and America.