Podcast 569-Final State by State Round Up. Where the state polls stand for presidential candidates right before election day 2016. This podcast does not endorse a candidate. I will not make you feel good or bad about your vote, or non vote. I will not attach ‘indexes’ and ‘percentage probabilities’ to potential wins or losses for the candidates. In Podcast 569-Final State by State Round Up, how candidates fare in each of the states according to existing polls. Partisan and advocacy journalists don’t provide insight on survey research. I do. What you’re getting from the cable news channels and advocacy news ‘websites’ are charlatans pushing their point of view. Fact is, no one knows how the election will play out in any of the so called battleground states. That’s because despite all the best effort, even the best political researchers are challenged to determine who is actually going to show up to vote especially when the polls show a close vote, within the margins of error. Elections are made on who votes. Not the number of signs. Not the number of people who show up at rallies. Not who ran the best TV spots. It’s all about getting the vote out. Once the vote is in, it’s all about counting. Is the election rigged? In a sense, yes. The United States is a representative republic which elects its executive not by the popular vote but through an institution known as the Electoral College. Some states’ electoral slates are proportionally chosen. Some states select electoral slates by party. The electors themselves have already been chosen. They will actually select the President of the United States on December 15th, 2016. In some states the popular vote determines how the electors are ‘supposed’ to vote. In some states it depends on which party’s candidate wins the overall vote. No so called ‘rogue elector‘ has ever been prosecuted for voting outside the state statute guidelines. In the event of an electoral tie, the election will be decided by the US House of Representatives. One thing is true, the republicans are the ones talking about ‘rigged’ elections right now, but if Donald Trump wins the presidency they’ll stop talking about that immediately and the democrats will start talking about things being ‘rigged’. The only thing coverage of these kinds of conspiracies do is reduce the faith Americans and the rest of the world has in the electoral process. In reality, ‘rigging’ a national election is a difficult task, despite what movies and conspiracy theorists say. If you are concerned about your candidate winning the election, the best thing you can do is turn off the TV and get out and help them win by driving people to the polls or making last minute calls, poll watching, or if you’re qualified, volunteering as an election judge. Thankfully we’ll be looking at election night results in the next podcast. Sponsored by Hydrus Performance and Brush Studio, in the West End, Saint Louis Park.
Podcast 560-Bob Davis Podcasts Radio Show-48. Live from Garberville, California which I keep referring to as Gerberville in the radio show, so my apologies to the people of Garberville. Coming down out of the mountains in heavy, driving rain for three days will turn your brain to mush. Podcast 560-Bob Davis Podcasts Radio Show-48 is live with brand new content for podcast subscribers. When traveling you have to make adjustments as long trips begin to take on a life of their own. There’s a life lesson there. Maybe there’s a political lesson too. 2016’s presidential campaign has taken on a surreal life of its own. We will be left to pick up the pieces. GOP leadership could have allowed a floor fight in Cleveland which might have yielded better national candidates, but the establishment instead chose power over principle. Has the Republican Party lost its moorings? Is it breaking up on the rocks? You’re supposed to be loyal and vote for Trump so Hillary Clinton doesn’t appoint liberal supreme court justices. Really? Reagan appointed Justice Kennedy and George W. Bush appointed Chief Justice Roberts. Roberts opened the constitutional gate for ObamaCare. Should Trump win the presidency, with the possibility of a democrat senate, nominating judges who pass the ‘conservative litmus test’ will be increasingly difficult. I think the right has lost its reason and its ability to make the powerful economic arguments that used to make it attractive to the middle class. With a morally bankrupt leadership that can’t decide whether to endorse, withdraw endorsement, endorse again or just tell people to vote for Trump ‘because, you know…’ that is pretty much all she wrote for the Grand Old Party. The question is whether the republican rank and file, drunk on rhetorical arguments for every issue, will be able to do the hard work necessary to build a new party. Meanwhile, the GOP is losing women, and struggles to attract younger or minority voters. This show only scratches the surface of how sad it is to watch an old friend die of a terminal disease. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul.[powepress]
Podcast 541. Electoral College Yoga. Get ready to twist your brain into pretzel like shapes as I talk about the electoral college, polls, and what the benchmarks for Election 2016 are so far. I’ll do another benchmark in about a month and one just before the election in late October, or early November. There are a lot of caveats on polling data. While most media people and their viewers seem to want to talk about national presidential preference polls, the proof of the pudding is in the state by state polls. The United States does not elect its presidents with a national vote. In fact, a presidential election is fifty state elections. Voters are selecting a slate of electors, chosen and voting generally according to state law and state party rules. So when you hear one candidate is ‘ahead’ over another in a national poll it really doesn’t mean anything. In 2008 and again in 2012 Republicans in particular were so hopeful based on national preference polls that if you said McCain or Mitt Romney wasn’t going to win, you were ‘raining on the parade’. But, if you looked closely at state polls in those election cycles, the outcome was not a surprise. State polls have their own problems; Smaller sample size, different polling methodologies, and in some states they are no polls until just before the election. While its not advisable to compare different polls of different sources and methodologies, we do it all the time. We’re looking for trends primarily. Currently while Donald J. Trump leads Hillary Clinton in a national presidential preference poll, the state polls tell a completely different story. It’s not a good story for republicans. The case isn’t closed. Trump still has time, but time is fleeting. I don’t support any candidate. I’m not working for any candidate. I’m not going to tell you how to vote. I’m also not going to spin the polling data to make you think something can happen, or is going to happen. If you want the straight talk on what’s going on, the Bob Davis Podcasts is the place to check back for these benchmark state-by-state analyses as we progress to Election Day 2016. Sponsored by Karow Contracting and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul.
Podcast 515-Andrew Davis. At the close of Father’s Day Weekend, a father and son podcast. From our adventures this weekend in talk radio, to late Sunday night recovering a lost iPhone, Andrew and Bob Davis talk about issues to get you current for the week ahead, the first official week of summer. This weekend we filled in for friends on the radio, and talked about our personal feelings that the establishment republicans will take one last run at Donald Trump at the RNC later this summer. Between a tough week last week for the New York Developer, to high negatives in recent polls, as well as reports of a (have to put this in quotes) “RICO civil lawsuit” on the Trump University matter, to his rhetorical and often controversial method of speaking, Trump is giving republicans fits. This weekend we talked about at least five or six republican seats that are vulnerable in this election. Those long term, powerful senators are very concerned about Trump’s high negatives and the potential that they could lose if he proves to be a weak presidential candidate, particularly in their states. An announcement this week that there’s an effort in effect to change the rules to allow delegates to ‘vote their conscience’, might gather steam if Trump continues have problems. This is why using terms like ‘presumptive’ is a bad idea when it comes to either of the front-running republican or democrat candidates. (Editor’s note: The only party that has actually settled on a ticket so far is the Libertarian Party which chose Gary Johnson as its presidential candidate and William Weld as its vice presidential candidate.) One of the things Andrew Davis wanted to talk about was the British vote, for or against exiting the European Union. We then moved on to international trade and trade deals, and what international trade and ‘free trade’ means to the United States, as well as some friendly father and son debate about executive power in these trade deals, and the negative effects they sometimes generate in this father and son Podcast 515-Andrew Davis. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul and Karow Contracting.
Ted Cruz In Saint Paul. This podcast takes you inside a political event in Saint Paul on a cold winter night. From heading out in Mobile Podcast Command Unit 8, to making coffee in Mobile Podcast Command, parked with the media trucks, to trying to sneak into restricted meetings, interviews with Cruz Minnesota Organizer Mandy Benz, State Representative Cindy Pugh, an unidentified (by her choice) Cruz advance planner, to 2nd District Congressional Candidate and old friend Jason Lewis, put headphones on and follow me. The brand new media story line is that Texas Senator and candidate for the Republican presidential nomination Ted Cruz is running second to Donald Trump and therefore ‘could be the guy’. Two months ago the Senator sent his father, this time he came in person, with reporters clustered around the door he was supposed to walk through, while technicians set up cameras on a riser in the back of the small Harriet Island indoor pavilion. As people filled the room, a giant screen showed campaign videos complete with all your favorite national talk show hosts talking about how great Ted Cruz will be when he becomes president. An introduction from a local preacher, more videos, and finally the main event…Senator Cruz throwing ‘red meat’. Boy, can he sling it! From rescinding Obama’s executive orders, to ‘utterly destroying ISIS’, this crowd loved it. Cruz’ strategy is to organize and concentrate on winning the Iowa caucuses, and use that momentum to win in enough key Super Tuesday states in the mid south, out west and along the eastern seaboard to gain the momentum to win the nomination, and the presidency. Can he do it? Or is he the new flavor of the month. We’ll know when people start to vote in roughly a month. Sponsored by X Government Trucks and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul.
Ignore The Polls. We are awash in polling data early in the 2016 election cycle, enabling politics to be covered like sports. In sports though, teams actually play the games, generating the scores and statistics. Champions emerge during and at the end of the season based on real results. The media, political pollsters and charlatans are deciding what candidates we’ll listen to, and perhaps vote for based on political opinion surveys called ‘polls’, not to be confused with voting. When people actually vote, or caucus, then it will generate actual data. In the meantime, why don’t they consult astrologers and tarot card readers, because it would be just as reliable and accurate as political opinion surveys. Conversations over the weekend convinced me to do another polling podcast, to explain what it is, what its limitations are, and why you are better off reading a book or raking leaves, than watching the soothsayers on Fox News. No, the poll that shows Trump in the lead does not mean a ‘plurality’ of ‘voters’ want Trump. Yes he could win a general election, so could Hillary Clinton, or any other potential candidate if conditions are right. One thing is for sure; Once people actually vote and caucus there will be surprises. There will be surprises through the primary season, conventions, until the actual election on November 8th, 2016. Or not. The travesty is that we allow television networks, pollsters, and the cartoonery of pundits and loud mouths to decide for us who debates, who wins, and who polls. The result is someone — maybe the exact wrong person — ends up in charge of the most expensive and dangerous government in the world. Are you alright with Fox, CNN, and MSNBC in concert with three or four pollsters, deciding the candidates for that job? Sponsored by Pride of Homes and Luke Team Real Estate and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul.
Levy Trump and Cecil. No, it’s not a law firm. No it’s not a children’s book. How today’s news cycle obsessions can become tomorrow’s forgotten story. What is worth your time? From MH-370 to Ebola today’s lead story is tomorrow’s forgotten junk, to be thrown out with the pizza box from last week, and the recycling. Today’s obsessions include a lion who has attained personhood by virtue of a name and a graphic demise at the hands of a opportunistic hunter, who happens to be a dentist from the suburbs of Minneapolis-Saint Paul, and a political candidate who is the leading republican, according to the polls. You’re not allowed to criticize Trump, or you’ll be blocked or shouted down. Fortunately for those who support the New York real estate and casino developer, former TV reality show host and purveyor of Miss America and Miss Universe beauty pageants, there is no criticism of the candidate himself. Oddly enough, people who claim the polls are rigged, also claim the polls show Trump to be the best chance for Republicans to win the 2016 presidential race. Yes, people are making wild claims about Trump’s potential for success. If republicans and the country wants him, fine. But let’s take a look at polling, political polling and the foibles of making predictions about a presidential race which is yet to gel. Not only are there fifty state primary elections or caucuses to get through, there are actually fifty state elections that make up the Presidential election itself. What about Trump as a third party candidate? Minnesota’s Jessie Ventura is offered up as an example. How does one state’s gubernatorial race in the 90’s predict a win for ‘The Donald’ in a three way presidential race? Does it? What about Ross Perot’s experience in the 1990’s. The media spurs uniformed speculation driven by polls that cannot and do not predict Trump’s, or anyone else’s performance in an election more than a year from now. It’s time for a frank discussion about political polling and its limitations, aside from allowing Cable TV news the opportunity to show graphics and charts and make baseless announcements about front-runners and ‘winners’. As far as Republicans are concerned, no matter who is nominated it’s going to be very tough to build a winning election organization with people who are frustrated, angry and scared of the future, and who have not demonstrated an ability to organize, work with each other, or get out the vote in the recent past. Republicans seem to be looking for a personality to lead them out of the wilderness, rather than take it upon themselves to start solving problems and present a viable agenda. Not a good omen for the 2016 cycle. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul.