Podcast 569-Final State by State Round Up. Where the state polls stand for presidential candidates right before election day 2016. This podcast does not endorse a candidate. I will not make you feel good or bad about your vote, or non vote. I will not attach ‘indexes’ and ‘percentage probabilities’ to potential wins or losses for the candidates. In Podcast 569-Final State by State Round Up, how candidates fare in each of the states according to existing polls. Partisan and advocacy journalists don’t provide insight on survey research. I do. What you’re getting from the cable news channels and advocacy news ‘websites’ are charlatans pushing their point of view. Fact is, no one knows how the election will play out in any of the so called battleground states. That’s because despite all the best effort, even the best political researchers are challenged to determine who is actually going to show up to vote especially when the polls show a close vote, within the margins of error. Elections are made on who votes. Not the number of signs. Not the number of people who show up at rallies. Not who ran the best TV spots. It’s all about getting the vote out. Once the vote is in, it’s all about counting. Is the election rigged? In a sense, yes. The United States is a representative republic which elects its executive not by the popular vote but through an institution known as the Electoral College. Some states’ electoral slates are proportionally chosen. Some states select electoral slates by party. The electors themselves have already been chosen. They will actually select the President of the United States on December 15th, 2016. In some states the popular vote determines how the electors are ‘supposed’ to vote. In some states it depends on which party’s candidate wins the overall vote. No so called ‘rogue elector‘ has ever been prosecuted for voting outside the state statute guidelines. In the event of an electoral tie, the election will be decided by the US House of Representatives. One thing is true, the republicans are the ones talking about ‘rigged’ elections right now, but if Donald Trump wins the presidency they’ll stop talking about that immediately and the democrats will start talking about things being ‘rigged’. The only thing coverage of these kinds of conspiracies do is reduce the faith Americans and the rest of the world has in the electoral process. In reality, ‘rigging’ a national election is a difficult task, despite what movies and conspiracy theorists say. If you are concerned about your candidate winning the election, the best thing you can do is turn off the TV and get out and help them win by driving people to the polls or making last minute calls, poll watching, or if you’re qualified, volunteering as an election judge. Thankfully we’ll be looking at election night results in the next podcast. Sponsored by Hydrus Performance and Brush Studio, in the West End, Saint Louis Park.
Podcast 566-BobDavisRadioShow-50. October final State By State Poll roundup. Podcast 566-BobDavisRadioShow-50 covers the hysteria around polling these days and what to watch for in the final two weeks of campaigning. Charlatans abound in the political world. Almost everyone telling you one candidate, or the other, is going to win has a hidden agenda. Some want to make themselves famous. Some are shilling for a candidate. Ignorance on what political research actually is has now commingled with Trump’s claims the polls and thus the election are rigged. My response to a subscriber email about push polls is typical. Someone, somewhere talked about push polls so now everyone thinks the polls are push polls. Or, the John Podesta email suggesting internal polling over same democrats has everyone convinced all the pollsters are in the tank for Clinton. Sigh. The polls used on Real Clear Politics, and the polls I use for Podcast 566-BobDavisRadioShow-50 are polls taken by media organizations or university political science departments. A push poll is a poll designed to ‘push’ a respondent into voting one way or another. Usually there is very little polling data collected in so called Push Polls. Are the polls right? A good poll isn’t right or wrong, it is reliable. Listen to this show and you’ll know more about polling than anyone on your block. Listen to the other podcasts about polling I have done and you’ll understand more about what is going on. First, it is not a popular vote that elects the President of the United States. The US Election is an electoral affair so all the action is in the state by state polls. You can aggregate these polls. You can average these polls. However, you cannot aggregate and average them and place a probability on whether one or the other candidate will win. All the poll averaging does is give you a birds eye view of the battlefield. The must win electoral states change election cycle to election cycle. No predictions will be made here. I will give you a truthful and honest analysis of where the mainline campaigns stand on the eve of election day, 2016. Sponsored by Hydrus Performance, Ryan Plumbing and X Government Cars.
Podcast 554-Latest Election State By State Polls. For you political junkies, which includes me, it’s been a month since the last analysis of political polls state by state, and I promised another one at the end of September, 2016. If you want to compare the two state by state poll podcasts to really get a sense of movement check out Podcast 541. I do not intend to analyze the debate. I will not tell you who won the debate. I will not tell you whether people pay attention to the debates. None of the current state by state polls were taken after the debates so they do not reflect the effects on either candidate of the debates. With this in mind, over 80 million people watched the September 26th debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. The next state-by-state poll roundup podcast at the end of October will show what effect – if any – the debates may or may not have had. The biggest change between this podcast and the podcast in late August is that there are now more ‘toss up’ states — that is states with poll averages for president within the margin of error. In Podcast 554-State By State Polls, I am drawing on data from Real Clear Politics. Follow the link directly to an interactive electoral map of the United States and follow along, or may your own map. The tightening could be knock on effects from Clinton’s bad week of September 11th, or it could just be due to more polls closer to the election, when respondents start paying attention and are more likely to give responses. You’ll have to listen for my conclusions about whether more toss up states mean anything, but for the most part, both candidates are within the margins in 2012 and 2008 in the states they lead, or are trading leads. The big questions remain Florida, Ohio, Pennsyvania, Virginia, and to a lesser extent North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, and western states like Colorado, Arizona and Nevada. This is a state by state electoral election, so the national polls don’t matter, and the snap polls on who won the debate don’t matter. All that matters is the candidate’s performance, and get out the vote efforts for them in key electoral states. Listen and learn the state by state strongholds, battlegrounds, advantages and disadvantages, roughly a month out. We’ll come back at the end of October and again just before the election in early November, and see how the campaigning, media, and news events have changed the political landscape. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing of Saint Paul.
Podcast 550-Bob Davis Podcasts Radio Show-44. This week it’s been all Hillary All The Time as the media thrives on a new story line. The health of Democratic Presidential Candidate Hillary Clinton. In this week’s radio show, two new segments of original content, and two excerpts from the podcasts the previous week as the story broke. From the speculation on social media, to the You Tube conspiracy theories, to the political fall out, to the polls, a comprehensive view of the Hillary Clinton Health Scare, starting with her collapse at the memorial service in New York City on September 11th, 2016, in Podcast 550-Bob Davis Podcasts Radio Show-44. Already a poll of ‘rust belt’ states shows Trump in the lead in Ohio. The poll was taken on the weekend of September 10th on the heels of her ‘deplorables’ comment and the collapse during the 9-11 memorial in New York. The state by state polls already show a tightening race. With 50 days left until the election, it remains to be seen how damaging what happened to Clinton, for whatever reason, will be politically. If the polls show significant damage to the Clinton campaign, the democrats still have time to win the race, if they handle this right, so Republicans counting their chickens might want to be a little less exuberant. On the other hand, this is a race which Clinton has been firmly leading since the conventions in August, so this is a significant development. Unfortunately, the voters will probably never know what ails Clinton because the newspapers and television networks with the resources to investigate this issue, have clearly shown they’re not interested. A day after Clinton was sent home with medications for ‘pneumonia’, the New York Times front page and the Minneapolis Tribune front page didn’t even mention the story. CBS edited out former President Bill Clinton’s comments suggesting Hillary Clinton has fainted ‘frequently’. So, we’ll probably never know what’s wrong with her, win or lose. Meanwhile conspiracy theory You Tubers, websites and radio shows continue to disservice of speculating on her health with diagnoses from charlatan ‘doctors’ on her ‘condition’ based on videos. Is there something wrong with her? Yes. Do we know what it is? No, despite a release of her medical records (probably incomplete) from the campaign. The worst two mainline party candidates in a hundred years continue to battle it out down to the wire when Americans cross their fingers and roll the dice, on November 8th, 2016’s bad bed election. Sponsored by X Government Cars.
Donald J. Trump Authoritarian. If you are a Trump supporter you probably want to know, the left has decided you have ‘authoritarian tendencies’. What is an authoritarian? We can now name the New Yorker with confidence; Donald J Trump Authoritarian. What does it make you if you support Donald J. Trump Authoritarian? What does it mean to have Authoritarian ‘tendencies’. Is it a new fangled way to call you a fascist? Since it’s well known that the first person who brings up Hitler in an argument has lost the argument, and since the left has already tagged the New York business man as another Hitler, they have to come up with something new. While you’re guzzling white wine and picking at the brie at the local university cocktail party, and someone asks what you think of Trump you can simply say, “Well you know his supporters are a bit authoritarian, don’t you think?” Where is this coming from? A self described ‘Phd candidate’ and Massachusetts political consultant Matthew MacWilliams has done a study. His study and ‘simple’ statistical analysis shows Trump supporters to have these authoritarian tendencies. It’s not enough that Trump supporters supposedly have lower education levels (and therefore must be stupid), or hail from the Blue Collar side of the tracks (which used to be democrat territory, back in the day), now it appears the kind of government they like is a little more on the authoritarian side. Hey! There’s a study, so it must be true, right? The bottom line is, if Republicans vote the way the polls show, and it’s a big if, Donald J Trump is going to be the Republican nominee. It’s been pretty clear from the get go that Trump not only terrifies the republican establishment, apparently he also terrifies the socialist left, which if it isn’t busy trying to put you in the photo with Hitler and Eva, is busy coming up with clever new ways to say you’re a fascist. What are the origins of fascism? What are the conditions that have to be met before you can have fascism? Which part of the political spectrum is meeting those conditions? What kind of political system is susceptible to fascism? The answers might surprise you. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul and X Government Trucks.
Voting Surprises. Elections held on November 3rd, 2015 show the potential for voters to surprise and even shock media, pundits and commentators. Is a Tea-Party Republican victory in the Kentucky Governor’s race a harbinger of surprises to come once people start actually voting in the primaries and caucuses starting February 1st, 2016? Voters in Ohio rejected legalizing Marijuana, Democrats in Virginia lost their bid to gain control of the State Senate, and LGBT rights legislation failed in Houston, Texas. Is this a conservative voting trend? The next actual election is November 21st in Louisiana, where polls say a Democrat is favored to win the bid to replace Republican Governor Bobby Jindal. Is the chattering class underestimating the possibility that conservative voters could show up in large numbers, shifting the country to the right. Same question applies to the grip of establishment republicans on power in the GOP. It is dangerous to believe polls, especially this early in the process. When it comes to real political science, the proof is in the pudding. If there is a trend of angry voters on the right turning out, the punditry is going to be caught flat footed, but the establishment republicans will be shocked. One gets the impression, reporters and commentators covering these elections hear so many stump speeches and have so much red meat thrown at them they get jaded when it comes to the degree of frustration of ordinary voters. The turmoil on the right is a storm brewed up by svengali strategists at the RNC who expected to crown Jeb Bush the nominee. Now Trump, Carson and Cruz threaten the whole house of cards, demanding their own rules for debates or upsetting the carefully constructed plan. Outliers Trump and Sanders on the left are shaking up the status quo and challenging the idea that suzerains in Washington get to decide who the nominee will be on either side. In the real news, things don’t seem to be going so well and the commentariat continues to write tripe. The GDP only ‘grew’ 1.5 percent, but don’t worry growth is expected when consumers, ‘spending the savings from lower gas prices like a tax cut’ finally kicks in. A new study done by Democrat Operatives that says Mergers and Acquisitions are causing ‘inequality’. Is this true? Meanwhile Congressional Republicans lift the debt ceiling and federal spending jumped by 338 billion dollars. Maybe they should be talking about cutting spending rather than cutting taxes? Sponsored by Pride of Homes and Luke Team Real Estate and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul.
Levy Trump and Cecil. No, it’s not a law firm. No it’s not a children’s book. How today’s news cycle obsessions can become tomorrow’s forgotten story. What is worth your time? From MH-370 to Ebola today’s lead story is tomorrow’s forgotten junk, to be thrown out with the pizza box from last week, and the recycling. Today’s obsessions include a lion who has attained personhood by virtue of a name and a graphic demise at the hands of a opportunistic hunter, who happens to be a dentist from the suburbs of Minneapolis-Saint Paul, and a political candidate who is the leading republican, according to the polls. You’re not allowed to criticize Trump, or you’ll be blocked or shouted down. Fortunately for those who support the New York real estate and casino developer, former TV reality show host and purveyor of Miss America and Miss Universe beauty pageants, there is no criticism of the candidate himself. Oddly enough, people who claim the polls are rigged, also claim the polls show Trump to be the best chance for Republicans to win the 2016 presidential race. Yes, people are making wild claims about Trump’s potential for success. If republicans and the country wants him, fine. But let’s take a look at polling, political polling and the foibles of making predictions about a presidential race which is yet to gel. Not only are there fifty state primary elections or caucuses to get through, there are actually fifty state elections that make up the Presidential election itself. What about Trump as a third party candidate? Minnesota’s Jessie Ventura is offered up as an example. How does one state’s gubernatorial race in the 90’s predict a win for ‘The Donald’ in a three way presidential race? Does it? What about Ross Perot’s experience in the 1990’s. The media spurs uniformed speculation driven by polls that cannot and do not predict Trump’s, or anyone else’s performance in an election more than a year from now. It’s time for a frank discussion about political polling and its limitations, aside from allowing Cable TV news the opportunity to show graphics and charts and make baseless announcements about front-runners and ‘winners’. As far as Republicans are concerned, no matter who is nominated it’s going to be very tough to build a winning election organization with people who are frustrated, angry and scared of the future, and who have not demonstrated an ability to organize, work with each other, or get out the vote in the recent past. Republicans seem to be looking for a personality to lead them out of the wilderness, rather than take it upon themselves to start solving problems and present a viable agenda. Not a good omen for the 2016 cycle. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul.
Final Polls Before Election. Election 2014 Coverage. As this podcast is posted, it is the early hours of Election Day 2014 in the United States. One third of the US Senate, all of the House of Representatives, scores of Governors and State Representatives and Senators across the country, are waiting to see what an unpredictable electorate will decide. These races are very important to the lives of the people in these individual states, and to the people of the country as a whole. Politics is not Sports, but it is being covered as though it is. Politicians are presented as players. Speech writers, campaign managers, party officials and insiders as coaches, former politicians and pundits become willing participants in what is being described as the ‘pageant’ of American politics. Viewers and listeners become invested in which ‘team’ wins or loses, and so emotionally identify with a ‘side’, as though that reflects the true nature of politics. The relationship between voters and their representatives is complex and runs deep. Since cable television news channels decided to give up reporting the news, and copied talk radio’s format, television now pushes people to the right or left paradigm in order to keep them watching. Although political polling was a factor in election coverage before 2010, controversy over Obama Care spurred the Tea Party Movement, and carried Republicans to a majority in the House of Representatives. In 2012 the polls indicated a slight advantage for Republican candidate Mitt Romney, and the Republican establishment felt it was entitled to the presidency. Only a few people said the polls were too close (Editor’s Note: I was one of them), but they were ignored in the headlong confirmation between Republicans that they would ‘win’. Moral of the story? Polls can be wrong. Really wrong. And here we are again, in November of 2014, with the election ‘moneyballers’ applying sports statistical analysis to something as widely variable and unreliable as political polling, and not just political polling but, polling in individual states. Added to this, media executives, producers, program directors and editors pushing their writers, broadcasters and guests to conclude, predict and provoke the audience, just as long as they watch another twenty four hours. And then there is the relentless onrush of negative mailers, attack ads, flaps and gaffes that go viral through social media and become ‘news stories. In this podcast, we’ll run down the polls one more time and make no predictions. At the end of this special edition election update from The Bob Davis Podcasts you’ll know how the polls stand in the so called ‘battleground’ states, and you’ll be able to come to your own conclusions about whether the predictions are outlandish or not. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul, and by Depotstar.
Governor Scott Walker. The Wisconsin Governor joins the Bob Davis Podcasts. We caught up with Walker, campaigning in Somerset, Wisconsin in the finals days of the 2014 campaign. Supporters talk about why they believe in Walker, and the differences between Minnesota and Wisconsin politics. As the final days of the race tick by, a new poll shows Walker leading by 7 points. For most of the race, it has been a see-saw with little more than a point separating Walker, or his opponent Mary Burke from the lead. So far, the race has been too close to call. With the President, First Lady and former President Bill Clinton campaigning for Burke, and the Unions pouring cash into attack TV ads and ground game, this will be one of the most interesting races to watch on Election night 2014. Not only is the race important for Wisconsinites, this is probably the one gubernatorial race in the United States that commands national attention. Most of the focus of Election 2014 coverage has been the US Senate. With Republicans sure to add to its majority in the House of Representatives, the story line has been that the party will manage to pick up 6+ seats in the Senate races, to regain control of the US Senate. The Bob Davis Podcast hasn’t talked a lot about local races, so this is a departure. What makes it interesting is the similarities between Minnesota and Wisconsin, and the clear differences. Both states have a large number of rural counties that vote republican, with a few urban centers that vote democrat. Scott Walker and Republicans in the state Assembly have been able to overcome a disadvantage Minnesota Republicans so far haven’t quite figured out how to do. Walker’s supporters — some of them former Minnesota residents now living in Western Wisconsin — offer a glimpse into how politics in the two states differ. At first blush, its passion combined with a candidate that offer hope and a chance to win. How does Walker do it? Perhaps it is his willingness to take big risks to reap big rewards. Another factor may be grassroots support and organization, that generates votes and contributions consistently. In states with seeming democrat locks, due to large urban populations, the focus needs to be on smaller, medium sized cities, and counties where town government, school boards, and county governments suffer at the hands of a progressive government that must tax and regulate to meet altruistic obligations and to cover the costs of union pay and benefits. Western Wisconsin, in particular, is home to many small and medium sized businesses that serve Western Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota (The Twin Cities Metro). Although it might be sacrilege to suggest it, the Gopher state might take some lessons — at least politically — from the Badger state. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul.