Podcast 397

Levy Trump and Cecil. No, it’s not a law firm. No it’s not a children’s book. How today’s news cycle obsessions can become tomorrow’s forgotten story. What is worth your time? From MH-370 to Ebola today’s lead story is tomorrow’s forgotten junk, to be thrown out with the pizza box from last week, and the recycling. Today’s obsessions include a lion who has attained personhood by virtue of a name and a graphic demise at the hands of a opportunistic hunter, who happens to be a dentist from the suburbs of Minneapolis-Saint Paul, and a political candidate who is the leading republican, according to the polls. You’re not allowed to criticize Trump, or you’ll be blocked or shouted down. Fortunately for those who support the New York real estate and casino developer, former TV reality show host and purveyor of Miss America and Miss Universe beauty pageants, there is no criticism of the candidate himself. Oddly enough, people who claim the polls are rigged, also claim the polls show Trump to be the best chance for Republicans to win the 2016 presidential race. Yes, people are making wild claims about Trump’s potential for success. If republicans and the country wants him, fine. But let’s take a look at polling, political polling and the foibles of making predictions about a presidential race which is yet to gel. Not only are there fifty state primary elections or caucuses to get through, there are actually fifty state elections that make up the Presidential election itself. What about Trump as a third party candidate? Minnesota’s Jessie Ventura is offered up as an example. How does one state’s gubernatorial race in the 90’s predict a win for ‘The Donald’ in a three way presidential race? Does it? What about Ross Perot’s experience in the 1990’s. The media spurs uniformed speculation driven by polls that cannot and do not predict Trump’s, or anyone else’s performance in an election more than a year from now. It’s time for a frank discussion about political polling and its limitations, aside from allowing Cable TV news the opportunity to show graphics and charts and make baseless announcements about front-runners and ‘winners’. As far as Republicans are concerned, no matter who is nominated it’s going to be very tough to build a winning election organization with people who are frustrated, angry and scared of the future, and who have not demonstrated an ability to organize, work with each other, or get out the vote in the recent past. Republicans seem to be looking for a personality to lead them out of the wilderness, rather than take it upon themselves to start solving problems and present a viable agenda. Not a good omen for the 2016 cycle. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul. 

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Podcast 246

Final Polls Before Election. Election 2014 Coverage. As this podcast is posted, it is the early hours of Election Day 2014 in the United States. One third of the US Senate, all of the House of Representatives, scores of Governors and State Representatives and Senators across the country, are waiting to see what an unpredictable electorate will decide. These races are very important to the lives of the people in these individual states, and to the people of the country as a whole. Politics is not Sports, but it is being covered as though it is. Politicians are presented as players. Speech writers, campaign managers, party officials and insiders as coaches, former politicians and pundits become willing participants in what is being described as the ‘pageant’ of American politics. Viewers and listeners become invested in which ‘team’ wins or loses, and so emotionally identify with a ‘side’, as though that reflects the true nature of politics. The relationship between voters and their representatives is complex and runs deep. Since cable television news channels decided to give up reporting the news, and copied talk radio’s format, television now pushes people to the right or left paradigm in order to keep them watching. Although political polling was a factor in election coverage before 2010, controversy over Obama Care spurred the Tea Party Movement, and carried Republicans to a majority in the House of Representatives. In 2012 the polls indicated a slight advantage for Republican candidate Mitt Romney, and the Republican establishment felt it was entitled to the presidency. Only a few people said the polls were too close (Editor’s Note: I was one of them), but they were ignored in the headlong confirmation between Republicans that they would ‘win’. Moral of the story? Polls can be wrong. Really wrong. And here we are again, in November of 2014, with the election ‘moneyballers’ applying sports statistical analysis to something as widely variable and unreliable as political polling, and not just political polling but, polling in individual states. Added to this, media executives, producers, program directors and editors pushing their writers, broadcasters and guests to conclude, predict and provoke the audience, just as long as they watch another twenty four hours. And then there is the relentless onrush of negative mailers, attack ads, flaps and gaffes that go viral through social media and become ‘news stories. In this podcast, we’ll run down the polls one more time and make no predictions. At the end of this special edition election update from The Bob Davis Podcasts you’ll know how the polls stand in the so called ‘battleground’ states, and you’ll be able to come to your own conclusions about whether the predictions are outlandish or not. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul, and by Depotstar. 

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Podcast 235

Walk and Talk. Review of last week’s Ebola and political news, on an evening neighborhood walk, during a perfect fall night in the Upper Midwest. What’s the first thing you thought about when you woke up today? How about the difference in being born during this time, or perhaps 1418? (Editor’s Note: Yes, this is the first thing I thought about when I woke up the day I did this podcast. Who knows where that came from!). The 1400’s? Probably not a great era to be born in no matter what your station in life; Peasant, or Royal. Life expectancy? Between 20 and 35 years. Probably the best place to live? A united China, at the dawn of the Ming Dynasty, in that era. 1400’s was also the peak of the North American Indians. While we can be concerned about the medieval things that happen in our time; Beheadings, the spread of Ebola and the fear associated with both, all other measurements of life these days compared to say, 1418 are much more desirable. Speaking of Ebola. At the suggestion of Republican Senator John McCain, President Obama has appointed an Ebola Czar. Now everyone is upset that the Ebola Czar isn’t a General. Really? How can moderate Republicans like McCain go around talking about ‘smaller government’ when their best suggestion on how to handle Ebola is more government? How did that work out with The Department of Homeland Security after 9/11. The President oversees the Defense Department, NIH, the CDC and has a Surgeon General. What about Obama being the Ebola Czar since he’s responsible. Minnesota’s Republican Senate Candidate Mike McFadden finally hits a home run by advocating a travel ban, while Senator Al Franken wants to think about it some more. Meanwhile, the President tells America not to ‘panic’. Who’s in charge? According to the New York Times, President Obama is privately ‘livid’ that apparently no one is. Message to the President: “Pssst…Sir…uh…You’re in charge!”. Additional thoughts on the President’s no drama process. Maybe he just doesn’t want to do what anyone else wants to do, and uses ‘process’ as an excuse. Philosophically, he doesn’t believe the US is exceptional, blames European Colonialism for the problems of the world, and hews pretty much to the progressive belief in expanding government … particularly the Federal Government, and actually the executive branch of the federal government. Houston, we have a problem. We have a bad president, and if we can make it to January 20th 2017, we’ll have a new one. Hopefully someone who has had executive experience as Governor and not another former Senator, and please no more community organizers! Finally, the political ‘moneyballers’ continue to predict a Republican Wave, for the election on November 4th, 2014 and then take back the prediction. What’s the difference between political scientists, television personalities and writers who know how to use excel? Political scientists concentrate on real voting data, historically, and use poll data sparingly. We won’t know what will happen in this election, until at least November 4th, 2014 — late into the evening. Sponsored by XGovernmentcars! 

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