Photo Finish-Down To The Wire-Election 2018-Podcast 767

With just about two weeks to go until election day 2018 polls are showing tighter races. Suddenly the narratives and storylines the media loves are thrown to the wind. Find out what’s changing in Photo Finish-Down To The Wire-Election 2018-Podcast 767.

Listen To The Election 2018 Series

Especially relevant are the series of podcasts I did looking into all the so called ‘toss up races’. What I found is detailed in that series. Listen to those podcasts here.

House Senate and Governor’s Elections Are Tightening

In addition what I suggested in my series on the midterms is many of these house, senate and governor’s elections would be close anyway. Sure enough across the country polls show tightening races as we come down to the wire.

Media Bias?

Are media elites in Washington and New York City operating from a world view that sees the possibility of a so called ‘blue wave‘ election when there hasn’t been much evidence to support this view? Find out in Photo Finish-Down To The Wire-Election 2018-Podcast 767.

A Primer on Polls. Again.

Finally there are the polls. In this free wheeling podcast I give subscribers and listeners another quick primer on the polls. Polls do not ‘predict’. Polls do not ‘say’. Closer elections make it more difficult for pollsters to ‘predict’ outcomes.

One Poll To Watch Out For

The New York Times/Sienna College poll is singled out in this podcast as problematic. This poll is showing wide variances in its results for candidates in Tennessee, Minnesota and many other places. Should democrats and republicans believe this particular poll. In the absence of any other polls to trend I would tell my listeners to be very dubious of this poll. I’ll tell you why in Photo Finish-Down To The Wire-Election 2018-Podcast 767.

In conclusion the mad rush to analyze the impact of news events on the election, on a day to day basis, is probably a mistake.

This one is going down to the wire to a photo finish!

Sponsored by Citizens Council For Health Freedom and John D Scott Personal Injury Lawyer

Photo Finish-Down To The Wire-Election 2018-Podcast 767

Brett Kavanaugh-New McCarthyism-Cesspool-Podcast 760

These days lurid talk about the show trial and the cesspool in Washington DC are apparently unavoidable. Most noteworthy is the latest example of new McCarthyism. What’s it all about? The Midterms. Find out why in Brett Kavanaugh-New McCarthyism-Cesspool-Podcast 760.

Spinning Out Of Control

It feels to me like our government is spinning out of control. Especially relevant is the latest installment. A down in the dirt, mudslinging fight over a supreme court nominee.

Maybe The Conspiracy Guys Are Right

Moreover it sure feels like a massive manipulation. Makes me wonder whether all the conspiracy You Tubers right after all. Leaves me feeling disgusted and dirty. Learn more in Brett Kavanaugh-New McCarthyism-Cesspool-Podcast 760.

Tail Gunner Joe

In the 1950’s it was McCarthyism and the Red Scare. All about communists. Fueled by fear of nuclear war and a takeover of the US by soviet agents. The Senate Committee on Un American Affairs poured gasoline on a fire of fear.

Destroying Lives and Livelihoods

Soviet spies did penetrate the US Atomic Bomb Program at Los Alamos. However McCarthy made it sound like enemies lurked in the shadows everywhere. It got out of hand. Livelihoods and lives were destroyed in his quest for center stage.

Men Live In Fear

Fast forward sixty years. We’re back at it. This time the #metoo movement is the delivery system. A movement that had a chance to help women in the workplace is now a weapon in the hands of politicians. Dim memories now lurk in the shadows. Men now live in fear. Prosecution without due process. Sentence without regard to anything but party loyalty. It’s getting out of hand.

They Were Told Hillary Would Win And They Believed It

This time it’s a simple case of the democratic party being unable to accept Trump’s presidential victory. They actually believed the media when it said polls showed Hillary would win. Except that’s not what the polls said.

In all fairness though, republicans have certainly had their fun with the sexual activities of high officials. Republicans have had their own issues being unable to accept election results.

In conclusion we’re going to have to go through this nonsense now that charges have been made so we can get to the bottom of it. That means new ‘facts’, new people ‘coming forward’ and more ugliness. Maybe they’re true and maybe they’re not. I can’t know and neither can anyone else, until the facts are determined.

Meanwhile the country is drowning in a sea of debt and spending. All the ‘fourth estate’ can do is talk about penises and parties, and fiddle while Rome burns.

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul, Johantgen Jewelers and Reliafund Payment Processors

Brett Kavanaugh-New McCarthyism-Cesspool-Podcast 760

Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 1-Bob Davis Podcast 753

Every two years the entire US House of Representatives has to run for election. The predictions of the prognosticators concerning these elections are most noteworthy. The sages say as many as 58 republican seats are in jeopardy. We’ll find out in a series of podcasts that examine each of these house races in detail. Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 1-Bob Davis Podcast 753.

Predictions Are Dangerous

I hate predictions, Moreover I find while the media loves to ‘nationalize’ house and senate elections most of the time they turn on local issues not the national issues. One of the reasons predictions are often be wrong.

Especially relevant, so many of these races are considered toss ups.

Calibrating The Crystal Ball

There’s only way to determine whether men staring into crystal balls can predict the future. You have to examine each district one at a time.

In part one we look at several districts in California, Colorado, and Florida. More are on the way.

Travel Makes Great Political Analysis

I am happy to say I have been to many of these districts in Mobile Podcast Command. ‘Just passing through’ doesn’t give you some gift for the truth but it does help to visualize. Because I travel I have additional knowledge that is invaluable when it comes to understanding what’s going on in some of these elections.

Pivot Counties Are Well…Pivotal

Similarly it helps to have visited to some of the so called ‘Pivot Counties‘ and to have traveled through areas these guys on TV probably have not seen recently, if ever. It all adds up to the realization that all politics really is local.

New Political Environment?

Because I traveled in 2016 I was able to to realize early on something different was brewing. I think we’re still in a new political environment. All the more reason not to avoid the tarot card readers on TV. Listen to Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 1-Bob Davis Podcast 753 instead.

No Predictions Just Information And a Baseline For You

While I won’t predict anything in 2018 I think it is fair to say we’re in a new environment politically in which almost anything can happen. Moreover whatever is happening may not show up in polls and primary election data.

Isn’t that what makes watching the outcome so much fun?

Sponsored by Reliafund Payment Processors and The Water Butler Water Purification Systems

Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 1-Bob Davis Podcast 753

2018 Senate Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 751

These days political coverage turns elections into sporting events. My mission is to provide political coverage without making predictions. Let’s start with the Senate in 2018 Senate Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 751.

November 6th 2018

First of all throughout this podcast I refer to election day as November 7th 2018. In fact it’s November 6th, 2018. Until election day, many of the questions people have about outcomes will remain unanswered. I’ll tell you why.

Statewide Races

Furthermore commentators love to make national predictions. It’s important to remember these are individual state elections. Despite efforts by the media to make you think these are national elections, they aren’t. They’re local elections. Find out more in 2018 Senate Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 751.

The Stakes Are High

Especially relevant are the stakes. The future of Donald Trump’s presidency is in the balance with these Midterm Elections regardless of the local and national issues driving them.  Much of the coverage of the 2018 midterm elections hinges on this truth.

Key Races

What it comes down to are about 6 or 7 key races in various states around the country. As we get closer to election day (November 6th 2018, by the way) the line up of so called toss up races might change.

Holding The Majority

Republicans currently hold 50 seats in the US Senate with one vacant seat. Democrats hold 48. 2 Independents caucus with democrats giving them 49 votes potentially. With Vice President Mike Pence, the republicans can count on a 51 seat majority.

Arizona’s governor will appoint a replacement for the late John McCain, giving the republicans a potential 52 vote majority.

Will republicans hold that majority?

Making Useless Predictions

Finally I am so tired of hearing these know it alls making predictions based on primary vote results and conventional wisdom. As you’ll hear in 2018 Senate Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 751 polling is pretty thin in some key races. It’s about time someone covered the story without telling you who’s going to win.

Trump’s Twitter Feed

In conclusion we’ll cover about 7 senate races worth talking about. Will the president’s twitter feed and rally machine help republicans or hurt them?

As far as predictions, I remember a sports writer’s response when I asked him which team was going to win the big game Sunday. He said “That’s why we play the game!”

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating Of Saint Paul

2018 Senate Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 751

 

Trump-Russia-Comments-Media Firestorm-Bob Davis Podcast 739

President Trump’s comments with Russian President Putin in Helsinki this week kicked off a media firestorm. With stories like this it’s hard to tell which end is up, these days. We’ll talk about it in Trump-Russia-Comments-Media Firestorm-Bob Davis Podcast 739.

A Disaster For The White House

Everything was going “so well” until the President went to Helsinki, Finland to talk to Russian President Putin.

Most noteworthy were comments from Trump that contradicted US intelligence assessments saying Russia interfered in the 2016 election.

Treason?

Were Trump’s comments a mistake or intentional?

Do they constitute ‘treason’? Really?

When You Have To Say Something…

As a podcaster I do not envy people who have to be on the air everyday and react to these kinds of breaking stories. When a president as unpredictable as this one makes news with every tweet and comment what does one say?

When Press Conferences Go Bad

It’s especially relevant to note the Trump-Putin summit did not result in any signed agreements. There was a cordial discussion. It was the joint press conference that kicked off a media rampage of truly biblical proportion in the US. It certainly didn’t help that Trump was unprepared, and proud of it.

We’ll break it down in Trump-Russia-Comments-Media Firestorm-Bob Davis Podcast 739.

Telling Us What To Think

Moreover critics and supporters are busy telling all of us what to think and what will happen next. Either Trump’s a genius or a fool. He’s getting a second term or will be impeached. Academics write several hundred words supporting the so called ‘resistance’ or articulating the president’s policy for him.

Everyone On TV or Radio Is An Expert

Everything Trump does has ‘never been done before’. Former government officials are trotted out to tell us how this is the worst thing that has ever happened. Smarty Pants Professors tell us what Abe Lincoln or Woodrow Wilson would have done.

Now What?

In conclusion, are people really going to take to the streets because Trump upset the Mueller applecart in Helsinki? Is Trump in the process of destroying the Republican party? Are democrats doing the same thing on the left, by attacking everything the president does? Let’s talk about it.

(Editor’s Note: At the beginning of this podcast I say, “until Trump went to Russia”. Of course this is a joke. The president went to Helsinki, Finland for his bilateral meeting with Russian President Putin.)

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul and Reliafund Payment Processors

Trump-Russia-Comments-Media Firestorm-Bob Davis Podcast 739


 

 

Podcast 579-Internet Censorship

Podcast 579-Internet Censorship. The news media has a new story-line. Fake News Elected Donald Trump. We have to do something about fake news. It amounts to is censorship of the Internet. A violation of the right to free speech guaranteed by the US Constitution’s first amendment at least in spirt. What IS Fake News? I think of Fake News as False Narratives. Story lines seeded by politicians and corporate PR people. Narratives that are picked up and reported on by journalists who take down quotes for their stories rather than investigate and report. These story lines are picked up by more journalists who quote talking heads. Commentators commentate, more quotes and more stories until the narrative outlives its usefulness and then the whole thing starts over. Examples include explanations of why Trump won the election including, ‘Women voted for Trump instead of Hillary’. Another was the reporting on ‘What the Polls showed’ which usually meant Clinton was supposed to win. Facts in both cases debunked these claims. The definition of ‘Fake News’ we’re actually dealing with now are false stories presented as fact. You see them on You Tube, FaceBook and Twitter. But they are picked up by websites like Breitbart or Huffington Post if they fit a narrative. Since ‘fake news’ elected ‘a person like Trump’, Clinton backers are demanding social media and search engine companies like FaceBook and Google ‘do something about fake news’. In Podcast 579-Internet Censorship, we spend a little time explaining the American Political system, specifically the Electoral College. This explains how Donald Trump was able to eke out an electoral victory in key states, as well as a solid victory among the voters of Ohio, which gave him a victory in the presidential contest, regardless of popular vote totals, fair and square. There is virtually no evidence fake news had anything to do with these tight victories. If Clinton’s voters had actually voted in those states we’d be talking about a Clinton transition and Trump would be on a beach in the Caribbean somewhere. Despite the fact that Clinton has been a proponent of doing away with the electoral college for years, suddenly the hoary old institution is her best friend. We don’t know if anyone voted for Trump based on the Pizza Gate story, we can’t and we won’t. That doesn’t stop the left from putting immense pressure on FaceBook, the supposed culprit here in publishing so called fake news. What does Mark Zuckerberg the head of FaceBook do? He caves. A second story making the rounds in the alt-right community with headlines like, “We told you so” says they’re already censoring the Internet. Finally there have long been discussions in the national security and foreign policy community regarding censoring Islamic Jihad sites that radicalize followers. All three of these stories are being conflated right now online as though some imminent threat to free speech exists. Is there? Or are these companies simply formalizing procedures to suppress violent or illegal content that has been part of their service agreements? As a content creator the idea of ‘warning labels’ is chilling. The idea of some kind of algorithm to be defeated is chilling. That said, wouldn’t such procedures invite work arounds? Wouldn’t censorship invite efforts to defeat algorithms? Personally I don’t concern myself with speech control in countries that don’t have guarantees of free speech. I do care about attempts to limit speech in the United States where free speech is THE cornerstone of a successful representative republic and is constitutionally guaranteed in the first amendment. You can’t stop things you don’t agree with. As a content provider, this concerns me. Sponsored by X Government Cars and by Hydrus Performance.

Podcast 571-Bob Davis Podcasts Radio Show 52

Podcast 571-Bob Davis Podcasts Radio Show 52. Final Thoughts On Election 2016. The biggest loser in election 2016 is The Media. Specifically, pundits, prognosticators and predictors of the future. The Media did it to us through the masochistic 2 year presidential election cycle. Before President-Elect Trump has had a chance to get a good night’s sleep after a grueling election, we’re already being told what kind of president he’ll be. He is either the second coming of Reagan or the Anti-Christ. Four new mini podcasts for your weekend and some reminders about why I did not endorse, promote, defend, or attack candidates and positions. In 2016 the Media failed to cover any of the issues in favor of lurid, shock oriented gossip. So a new administration takes office while a poorly informed public nurses preconceived notions about what is ‘going to happen’. First thing to tackle? “The Polls Were Wrong”. What is wrong is the media’s reliance on national presidential preference polls, drawing incorrect conclusions and making predictions based on those conclusions. If you were surprised at the outcome of election 2016 it’s because of what you were watching and listening to. The Bob Davis Podcasts steadfastly maintained the polls were too close to call in key states. Given how close the race was in Ohio, and Pennsyvania, Florida, North Carolina and Wisconsin, Trump won because voters for Obama in 2008 and 2012 did not show up for Clinton. Trump was able to get enough people to vote for him to overwhelm Clinton where it counted. Elections are not won with polls. Elections are not won with predictions. Election outcomes are determined by the people who vote. Second thing to tackle? “Donald Trump Is Anti Establishment. The Establishment was Beaten”. Really? Who’s in charge of the Republican Party, the US Congress and the Senate? Who are the people running Trump’s transition team and where do they come from? In 2016 both mainline political parties rejected the grassroots in their parties in favor of candidates they thought could win. Finally, travel is the best way to temper judgements about what is going on in this country and what will happen as a result. The United States is still vibrant. From Silicon Valley to the Chesapeake Bay, from North Dakota to the Texas Gulf Coast. In my travels in 2016 I met people going to work, running their businesses, taking care of their kids and living their lives. Guess what? They weren’t hanging on every word spoken by Wolf Blitzer or Laura Ingram. While there are places worse for wear or facing tough challenges, on balance this country is not falling apart, despite what the charlatans say. The country now needs to think about the challenges and opportunity ahead. We need to take full advantage of the technology revolution on our doorstep. In Podcast 571-Bob Davis Podcasts Radio Show 52, I’ll run it all down for you. Sponsored by Brush Studio and Hydrus.

Podcast 570-Election 2016 Results

Podcast 570-Election 2016 Results. Comprehensive analysis and minute by minute vote totals for Election 2016. How do podcasters cover presidential elections in real time without being live on the air, and without streaming? Podcast 570-Election 2016 Results shows you how. Follow along as I experience the election in real time on November 8th, 2016. The world seems surprised at news that Donald J. Trump has won the presidential election in The United States. Podcast 570 and Podcast 569 are meant to be listened to as companion podcasts. Since I did not endorse either candidate, I was able to provide objective analysis and experience the race objectively. Podcast 569 broke down the final poll data for the state by state races, avoiding any analysis of the national presidential preference polls. This minimized the surprise for anyone subscribing to the Bob Davis Podcasts, because you already knew no one could comfortably call this race. That did not stop the charlatans in talk radio, cable news and on line from attaching probabilities, or calling the race for one or the other. Not only was this race surprising overall, it was surprising on the state by state level. For the most part though, the state by state polls were either close to the totals in some cases, or within the margin of error. The US election is a state by state election, with the electoral college actually choosing the president on or about the 15th of December. In this hour plus long podcast I’m joined by friends, and family on the phone as well as a late night visit from local Minnesota Politico and web developer Mitch Rossow. At the close of this podcast we’re still waiting for Michigan and Minnesota returns to come in. I’ll have to update those on the next podcast. With Republicans retaining the Senate and the House majorities, and now winning the Presidency, now it is a question of the way forward. We’ll be talking about these issues and more on future podcasts. Pundits like to say the country is divided. What they might say is we can now agree on one thing. The worst election in recent memory is now, mercifully, over. And, tomorrow is another day, after all. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating and X Government Cars.

Podcast 569-Final State by State Round Up

Podcast 569-Final State by State Round Up. Where the state polls stand for presidential candidates right before election day 2016. This podcast does not endorse a candidate. I will not make you feel good or bad about your vote, or non vote. I will not attach ‘indexes’ and ‘percentage probabilities’ to potential wins or losses for the candidates. In Podcast 569-Final State by State Round Up, how candidates fare in each of the states according to existing polls. Partisan and advocacy journalists don’t provide insight on survey research. I do. What you’re getting from the cable news channels and advocacy news ‘websites’ are charlatans pushing their point of view. Fact is, no one knows how the election will play out in any of the so called battleground states. That’s because despite all the best effort, even the best political researchers are challenged to determine who is actually going to show up to vote especially when the polls show a close vote, within the margins of error. Elections are made on who votes. Not the number of signs. Not the number of people who show up at rallies. Not who ran the best TV spots. It’s all about getting the vote out. Once the vote is in, it’s all about counting. Is the election rigged? In a sense, yes. The United States is a representative republic which elects its executive not by the popular vote but through an institution known as the Electoral College. Some states’ electoral slates are proportionally chosen. Some states select electoral slates by party. The electors themselves have already been chosen. They will actually select the President of the United States on December 15th, 2016. In some states the popular vote determines how the electors are ‘supposed’ to vote. In some states it depends on which party’s candidate wins the overall vote. No so called ‘rogue elector‘ has ever been prosecuted for voting outside the state statute guidelines. In the event of an electoral tie, the election will be decided by the US House of Representatives. One thing is true, the republicans are the ones talking about ‘rigged’ elections right now, but if Donald Trump wins the presidency they’ll stop talking about that immediately and the democrats will start talking about things being ‘rigged’. The only thing coverage of these kinds of conspiracies do is reduce the faith Americans and the rest of the world has in the electoral process. In reality, ‘rigging’ a national election is a difficult task, despite what movies and conspiracy theorists say. If you are concerned about your candidate winning the election, the best thing you can do is turn off the TV and get out and help them win by driving people to the polls or making last minute calls, poll watching, or if you’re qualified, volunteering as an election judge. Thankfully we’ll be looking at election night results in the next podcast. Sponsored by Hydrus Performance and Brush Studio, in the West End, Saint Louis Park.

Podcast 560-Bob Davis Podcasts Radio Show-48

Podcast 560-Bob Davis Podcasts Radio Show-48. Live from Garberville, California which I keep referring to as Gerberville in the radio show, so my apologies to the people of Garberville. Coming down out of the mountains in heavy, driving rain for three days will turn your brain to mush. Podcast 560-Bob Davis Podcasts Radio Show-48 is live with brand new content for podcast subscribers. When traveling you have to make adjustments as long trips begin to take on a life of their own. There’s a life lesson there. Maybe there’s a political lesson too. 2016’s presidential campaign has taken on a surreal life of its own. We will be left to pick up the pieces. GOP leadership could have allowed a floor fight in Cleveland which might have yielded better national candidates, but the establishment instead chose power over principle. Has the Republican Party lost its moorings? Is it breaking up on the rocks? You’re supposed to be loyal and vote for Trump so Hillary Clinton doesn’t appoint liberal supreme court justices. Really? Reagan appointed Justice Kennedy and George W. Bush appointed Chief Justice Roberts. Roberts opened the constitutional gate for ObamaCare. Should Trump win the presidency, with the possibility of a democrat senate, nominating judges who pass the ‘conservative litmus test’ will be increasingly difficult. I think the right has lost its reason and its ability to make the powerful economic arguments that used to make it attractive to the middle class. With a morally bankrupt leadership that can’t decide whether to endorse, withdraw endorsement, endorse again or just tell people to vote for Trump ‘because, you know…’ that is pretty much all she wrote for the Grand Old Party. The question is whether the republican rank and file, drunk on rhetorical arguments for every issue, will be able to do the hard work necessary to build a new party. Meanwhile, the GOP is losing women, and struggles to attract younger or minority voters. This show only scratches the surface of how sad it is to watch an old friend die of a terminal disease. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul.[powepress]