Podcast 569-Final State by State Round Up. Where the state polls stand for presidential candidates right before election day 2016. This podcast does not endorse a candidate. I will not make you feel good or bad about your vote, or non vote. I will not attach ‘indexes’ and ‘percentage probabilities’ to potential wins or losses for the candidates. In Podcast 569-Final State by State Round Up, how candidates fare in each of the states according to existing polls. Partisan and advocacy journalists don’t provide insight on survey research. I do. What you’re getting from the cable news channels and advocacy news ‘websites’ are charlatans pushing their point of view. Fact is, no one knows how the election will play out in any of the so called battleground states. That’s because despite all the best effort, even the best political researchers are challenged to determine who is actually going to show up to vote especially when the polls show a close vote, within the margins of error. Elections are made on who votes. Not the number of signs. Not the number of people who show up at rallies. Not who ran the best TV spots. It’s all about getting the vote out. Once the vote is in, it’s all about counting. Is the election rigged? In a sense, yes. The United States is a representative republic which elects its executive not by the popular vote but through an institution known as the Electoral College. Some states’ electoral slates are proportionally chosen. Some states select electoral slates by party. The electors themselves have already been chosen. They will actually select the President of the United States on December 15th, 2016. In some states the popular vote determines how the electors are ‘supposed’ to vote. In some states it depends on which party’s candidate wins the overall vote. No so called ‘rogue elector‘ has ever been prosecuted for voting outside the state statute guidelines. In the event of an electoral tie, the election will be decided by the US House of Representatives. One thing is true, the republicans are the ones talking about ‘rigged’ elections right now, but if Donald Trump wins the presidency they’ll stop talking about that immediately and the democrats will start talking about things being ‘rigged’. The only thing coverage of these kinds of conspiracies do is reduce the faith Americans and the rest of the world has in the electoral process. In reality, ‘rigging’ a national election is a difficult task, despite what movies and conspiracy theorists say. If you are concerned about your candidate winning the election, the best thing you can do is turn off the TV and get out and help them win by driving people to the polls or making last minute calls, poll watching, or if you’re qualified, volunteering as an election judge. Thankfully we’ll be looking at election night results in the next podcast. Sponsored by Hydrus Performance and Brush Studio, in the West End, Saint Louis Park.
Podcast 566-BobDavisRadioShow-50. October final State By State Poll roundup. Podcast 566-BobDavisRadioShow-50 covers the hysteria around polling these days and what to watch for in the final two weeks of campaigning. Charlatans abound in the political world. Almost everyone telling you one candidate, or the other, is going to win has a hidden agenda. Some want to make themselves famous. Some are shilling for a candidate. Ignorance on what political research actually is has now commingled with Trump’s claims the polls and thus the election are rigged. My response to a subscriber email about push polls is typical. Someone, somewhere talked about push polls so now everyone thinks the polls are push polls. Or, the John Podesta email suggesting internal polling over same democrats has everyone convinced all the pollsters are in the tank for Clinton. Sigh. The polls used on Real Clear Politics, and the polls I use for Podcast 566-BobDavisRadioShow-50 are polls taken by media organizations or university political science departments. A push poll is a poll designed to ‘push’ a respondent into voting one way or another. Usually there is very little polling data collected in so called Push Polls. Are the polls right? A good poll isn’t right or wrong, it is reliable. Listen to this show and you’ll know more about polling than anyone on your block. Listen to the other podcasts about polling I have done and you’ll understand more about what is going on. First, it is not a popular vote that elects the President of the United States. The US Election is an electoral affair so all the action is in the state by state polls. You can aggregate these polls. You can average these polls. However, you cannot aggregate and average them and place a probability on whether one or the other candidate will win. All the poll averaging does is give you a birds eye view of the battlefield. The must win electoral states change election cycle to election cycle. No predictions will be made here. I will give you a truthful and honest analysis of where the mainline campaigns stand on the eve of election day, 2016. Sponsored by Hydrus Performance, Ryan Plumbing and X Government Cars.
Ted Cruz Wins Iowa. The first votes in the nation for the 2016 election cycle are finally in. With election results muddled, Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton are within two votes of each other. On the Republican side Texas Senator Ted Cruz has won the Iowa Precinct Caucuses, beating the pollster and pundit favorite Donald Trump. The Bob Davis Podcasts spent the last two days of furious retail campaigning with two completely different politicians. For HP CEO Carly Fiorina held a breakfast town hall meeting at a diner in Waukee, Iowa, on Sunday January 31st, and this podcast takes you inside that event. On Monday, the Bob Davis Podcasts spent the day with the Ted Cruz campaign at the last stop for Cruz in his 99 county tour of Iowa. Cruz capped off his campaign on a sunny, warm day in Jefferson, Iowa and we take you inside that event as well. Cruz’ victory suggests there is hope yet for grassroots politics in the United States. If true, it backs up what some of the guests on these podcasts have said about the value of the Iowa Caucuses. On the other hand, Ted Cruz is one of the most disciplined candidates out there, even refusing to talk to the media or answer any questions about the now infamous ‘shaming mailer’ all the pundits thought would surely mean a Cruz loss in Iowa. Surprise! It may have worked! Ted Cruz Wins Iowa. Something of a surprise, but not to his supporters. As we post this podcast Mobile Podcast Command is bugging out, and headed for Tennessee, Virginia, South Carolina and finally North Carolina, where politicians, pollsters, pundits, and some of their caravan of followers are headed for the next primary. On the other hand, there’s only one Iowa. Bonus round! Actor Richard Dreyfuss makes a cameo appearance in this podcast. Thanks Mr. Dreyfuss! Sponsored by Hydrus, Pride of Homes and Luke Team Real Estate,
All About Iowa. Do you want the Iowa Caucuses to determine which presidential candidates are ‘viable’? In a state of slightly more than three million people, party leaders expect one hundred fifty thousand to show up to caucus, slightly more than in the 2012 cycle. Over the last year Iowans have been sliced and diced by pollsters, pundits, political psychologists, and sociologists. Anyone who attends political events – and there have been hundreds of them since last year – will see famous candidates, film stars, and national TV stars. It’s a spectacle, a circus, and a show being put on for one state. As the hours are counting down to the caucus Monday, February 1st, the Bob Davis Podcasts attends a Marco Rubio rally. One side of the room is reserved for the stage, the other for media. In between, are the Iowans, ready to comment when reporters approach them. Of course reporters will approach, like fish feeding at the water’s surface. ‘Who will you caucus for?’, ‘What do you think of Donald Trump?’. The answers to these and many other scintillating questions will be filed, dissected, and added to the national story line. All About Iowa. Fasten your seat belts. A rural backwater, albiet a very nice one with very nice people, is about to decide which candidates are the most viable. At least that’s how they see this process. After Monday’s caucus, the story lines will change, predictions will be adjusted, and some campaigns will never recover. Is this how we want to elect a president? While there is much to celebrate in the American political system, as I attend events and cover the caucus and the events leading up to it, what comes through louder and clearer is the dark and potentially dangerous relationship between big government, big media, politicians, pollsters and the population of a single state that has insinuated itself into the political process in an unprecedented way. All about Iowa? Indeed. Sponsored by X Government Cars and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul.
Donald J. Trump Authoritarian. If you are a Trump supporter you probably want to know, the left has decided you have ‘authoritarian tendencies’. What is an authoritarian? We can now name the New Yorker with confidence; Donald J Trump Authoritarian. What does it make you if you support Donald J. Trump Authoritarian? What does it mean to have Authoritarian ‘tendencies’. Is it a new fangled way to call you a fascist? Since it’s well known that the first person who brings up Hitler in an argument has lost the argument, and since the left has already tagged the New York business man as another Hitler, they have to come up with something new. While you’re guzzling white wine and picking at the brie at the local university cocktail party, and someone asks what you think of Trump you can simply say, “Well you know his supporters are a bit authoritarian, don’t you think?” Where is this coming from? A self described ‘Phd candidate’ and Massachusetts political consultant Matthew MacWilliams has done a study. His study and ‘simple’ statistical analysis shows Trump supporters to have these authoritarian tendencies. It’s not enough that Trump supporters supposedly have lower education levels (and therefore must be stupid), or hail from the Blue Collar side of the tracks (which used to be democrat territory, back in the day), now it appears the kind of government they like is a little more on the authoritarian side. Hey! There’s a study, so it must be true, right? The bottom line is, if Republicans vote the way the polls show, and it’s a big if, Donald J Trump is going to be the Republican nominee. It’s been pretty clear from the get go that Trump not only terrifies the republican establishment, apparently he also terrifies the socialist left, which if it isn’t busy trying to put you in the photo with Hitler and Eva, is busy coming up with clever new ways to say you’re a fascist. What are the origins of fascism? What are the conditions that have to be met before you can have fascism? Which part of the political spectrum is meeting those conditions? What kind of political system is susceptible to fascism? The answers might surprise you. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul and X Government Trucks.
Back In The Studio. After almost ten days on the road, back in the home studio for this podcast. And what a news weekend it was. The US sends ‘troops’ to Africa to provide logistics support and training in the effort to combat the spread of Ebola. Meanwhile, a movie executive says ‘apocalyptic tentpole movies’ are boring audiences. When you consider people getting their heads chopped off, and a raging epidemic of the world’s most deadly disease, maybe some people actually think we are living in a future-post-apocalyptic-dystopia. What does the media report, and what are the real facts on-the-ground in any of the situations we’re watching in the world today. We have no way of knowing. Do our subconscious minds know the difference between the news, and Game Of Thrones, Walking Dead, or any other end-of-the-world themed venue? More and more the commentariat really is an echo chamber, where pundits and presenters are talking to each other. This was one of the primary reasons for the ‘News Cleanse’, and the ‘Road Trip’. It doesn’t appear that these events – as horrible as they are – have negatively effected the people in the many states I drove through last week. I hate to say it, but life looks like it is pretty good for some pretty normal looking people, despite The Pope saying we’re in a sort of ‘low-grade’ world war three. Are we? What do really know about anything going on these days. The pollsters told us Scotland would break off from the UK. Scotland voted No. Do we make our own luck, or live in fear? Also some quick views on what passes for local TV Broadcast news, how the most quiet Atlantic Hurricane season since the early 90’s has effected cable television news, and the latest scare in the virus world (besides Ebola) EV-D68, now ‘flooding’, ‘mobbing’ and ‘crowding’ ER’s in New York State, where there have been dozens, dozens mind you, of this respiratory virus which is also known as a bad summer cold. It never ends. But…that’s what makes my job fun. Sponsored by Baklund R&D.