Photo Finish-Down To The Wire-Election 2018-Podcast 767

Photo Finish-Down To The Wire-Election 2018-Podcast 767

With just about two weeks to go until election day 2018 polls are showing tighter races. Suddenly the narratives and storylines the media loves are thrown to the wind. Find out what’s changing in Photo Finish-Down To The Wire-Election 2018-Podcast 767.

Listen To The Election 2018 Series

Especially relevant are the series of podcasts I did looking into all the so called ‘toss up races’. What I found is detailed in that series. Listen to those podcasts here.

House Senate and Governor’s Elections Are Tightening

In addition what I suggested in my series on the midterms is many of these house, senate and governor’s elections would be close anyway. Sure enough across the country polls show tightening races as we come down to the wire.

Media Bias?

Are media elites in Washington and New York City operating from a world view that sees the possibility of a so called ‘blue wave‘ election when there hasn’t been much evidence to support this view? Find out in Photo Finish-Down To The Wire-Election 2018-Podcast 767.

A Primer on Polls. Again.

Finally there are the polls. In this free wheeling podcast I give subscribers and listeners another quick primer on the polls. Polls do not ‘predict’. Polls do not ‘say’. Closer elections make it more difficult for pollsters to ‘predict’ outcomes.

One Poll To Watch Out For

The New York Times/Sienna College poll is singled out in this podcast as problematic. This poll is showing wide variances in its results for candidates in Tennessee, Minnesota and many other places. Should democrats and republicans believe this particular poll. In the absence of any other polls to trend I would tell my listeners to be very dubious of this poll. I’ll tell you why in Photo Finish-Down To The Wire-Election 2018-Podcast 767.

In conclusion the mad rush to analyze the impact of news events on the election, on a day to day basis, is probably a mistake.

This one is going down to the wire to a photo finish!

Sponsored by Citizens Council For Health Freedom and John D Scott Personal Injury Lawyer

Photo Finish-Down To The Wire-Election 2018-Podcast 767

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Conventional Wisdom-Election 2018 Follies-Podcast 764

Conventional Wisdom-Election 2018 Follies-Podcast 764

These days it always pays to wait for an outcome before you predict the future. With the confirmation of Brett Cavanaugh to the US Supreme Court we have an outcome. Now comes an avalanche of predictions about the court fight’s impact on the election. Find out why I say ignore the prognosticators in Conventional Wisdom-Election 2018 Follies-Podcast 764.

Bottom line, elections belong to the people who vote. Not tea leaves

Most noteworthy in 2018 are several US Senate Elections. Moreover scores of House elections are very close.

Blue Wave. Wait! Red Wave! No Wait! Blue Wave

What’s the media telling the American people? It’s a ‘blue’ wave fueled by young adults and women angry at the treatment of Christine Ford, nemesis of the former court nominee. Don’t like that story line? Guess what? Republican voters are seething and will go out and vote again democrats in droves. So say the story tellers.

Not Enough Data

In contrast to the nonsense being spewed by now famous political ‘scientists’ no one knows who’s actually going to vote. Polls are scanty and some shoddily conducted. Another factor is the fact that determining who will vote and why is truly an art. In other words, no one knows. It’s about time someone explains it’s hard to say what will happen on November 6th, without picking sides.

Quick! Who’s Your Congressman?

Truth is midterm voter turn out is lower than presidential years. Many people don’t even know who their congressman is. National issues don’t always drive elections. Almost all the House districts that aren’t gerrymandered are close. And somehow one national story is going to drive the results of all these elections? Are they toss ups that can go either way? Are these close races evidence of a blue wave? Find out in Conventional Wisdom-Election 2018 Follies-Podcast 764.

Coverage Of Politics In This Country is Terrible

In conclusion I am driven to do another political podcast I did not want to do. Why? Because most of what passes for political coverage in this country is terrible. Too many predictions. Lots of bias. Mostly telling both sides what they want to hear. Finally someone who tells it like it is and waits for election day to judge the outcome.

Sponsored by Water Butler Water Purification Systems and Johantgen Jewelers

Conventional Wisdom-Election 2018 Follies-Podcast 764

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Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756

Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756

As I do the last two podcasts in the toss up series at the Bob Davis Podcasts, more predictions of a democrat wave are most notable. Are these predictions true? We’ll find out in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756.

Shellacking

In addition to commentators AP reported this week that republican pollsters are telling top republicans they’re in for a shellacking in November.

As a mission of the Bob Davis Podcasts I have been looking at those elections deemed ‘toss ups’ by the experts.

Conventional Wisdom Is Right Until Wrong

Especially relevant is the idea behind the mission. No predictions. Non partisan. What is the situation in these key districts in the final weeks of the election. Readers, subscribers and listeners might be surprised to learn very few public polls exist. Conventional wisdom drives most of these predictions. I detail this for each toss up in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756.

Close Elections Don’t Always Mean Flips

From North Carolina to Texas in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756. Toss up races are simply close elections for whatever reason. Moreover most US House elections are in solid democrat or republican districts. This year some say there are more than 40 districts that will be close. Why they’re close is key.

Open Seats And Changing Geography

In some cases the district is an open seat because of retirements. In other cases, the contours of the district’s geography have changed. What was once a solid republican or democrat district is now supposedly more ‘balanced’.

Everyone Hates Congress…

Finally the real question in the 2018 midterms is whether people will vote their opinions of the president or local concerns. The old saying goes, everyone hates congress but not their congressman.

One Size Fits All Election?

In conclusion I spent a fair amount of time not only looking through the data for these districts but also watching some of the internet and TV ads for candidates. Sometimes it’s hard to tell the republican from the democrat. This is not a one size fits all election even though the media would have its viewers believe it is.

Once I finish this series in this podcast, and the next, I’ll do one more podcast with my analysis since there isn’t much time for that in these podcasts dealing with individual districts.

Sponsored by John D Scott Personal Injury Lawyer and the Water Butler Water Purification Systems

Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756

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