Photo Finish-Down To The Wire-Election 2018-Podcast 767

With just about two weeks to go until election day 2018 polls are showing tighter races. Suddenly the narratives and storylines the media loves are thrown to the wind. Find out what’s changing in Photo Finish-Down To The Wire-Election 2018-Podcast 767.

Listen To The Election 2018 Series

Especially relevant are the series of podcasts I did looking into all the so called ‘toss up races’. What I found is detailed in that series. Listen to those podcasts here.

House Senate and Governor’s Elections Are Tightening

In addition what I suggested in my series on the midterms is many of these house, senate and governor’s elections would be close anyway. Sure enough across the country polls show tightening races as we come down to the wire.

Media Bias?

Are media elites in Washington and New York City operating from a world view that sees the possibility of a so called ‘blue wave‘ election when there hasn’t been much evidence to support this view? Find out in Photo Finish-Down To The Wire-Election 2018-Podcast 767.

A Primer on Polls. Again.

Finally there are the polls. In this free wheeling podcast I give subscribers and listeners another quick primer on the polls. Polls do not ‘predict’. Polls do not ‘say’. Closer elections make it more difficult for pollsters to ‘predict’ outcomes.

One Poll To Watch Out For

The New York Times/Sienna College poll is singled out in this podcast as problematic. This poll is showing wide variances in its results for candidates in Tennessee, Minnesota and many other places. Should democrats and republicans believe this particular poll. In the absence of any other polls to trend I would tell my listeners to be very dubious of this poll. I’ll tell you why in Photo Finish-Down To The Wire-Election 2018-Podcast 767.

In conclusion the mad rush to analyze the impact of news events on the election, on a day to day basis, is probably a mistake.

This one is going down to the wire to a photo finish!

Sponsored by Citizens Council For Health Freedom and John D Scott Personal Injury Lawyer

Photo Finish-Down To The Wire-Election 2018-Podcast 767

Conventional Wisdom-Election 2018 Follies-Podcast 764

These days it always pays to wait for an outcome before you predict the future. With the confirmation of Brett Cavanaugh to the US Supreme Court we have an outcome. Now comes an avalanche of predictions about the court fight’s impact on the election. Find out why I say ignore the prognosticators in Conventional Wisdom-Election 2018 Follies-Podcast 764.

Bottom line, elections belong to the people who vote. Not tea leaves

Most noteworthy in 2018 are several US Senate Elections. Moreover scores of House elections are very close.

Blue Wave. Wait! Red Wave! No Wait! Blue Wave

What’s the media telling the American people? It’s a ‘blue’ wave fueled by young adults and women angry at the treatment of Christine Ford, nemesis of the former court nominee. Don’t like that story line? Guess what? Republican voters are seething and will go out and vote again democrats in droves. So say the story tellers.

Not Enough Data

In contrast to the nonsense being spewed by now famous political ‘scientists’ no one knows who’s actually going to vote. Polls are scanty and some shoddily conducted. Another factor is the fact that determining who will vote and why is truly an art. In other words, no one knows. It’s about time someone explains it’s hard to say what will happen on November 6th, without picking sides.

Quick! Who’s Your Congressman?

Truth is midterm voter turn out is lower than presidential years. Many people don’t even know who their congressman is. National issues don’t always drive elections. Almost all the House districts that aren’t gerrymandered are close. And somehow one national story is going to drive the results of all these elections? Are they toss ups that can go either way? Are these close races evidence of a blue wave? Find out in Conventional Wisdom-Election 2018 Follies-Podcast 764.

Coverage Of Politics In This Country is Terrible

In conclusion I am driven to do another political podcast I did not want to do. Why? Because most of what passes for political coverage in this country is terrible. Too many predictions. Lots of bias. Mostly telling both sides what they want to hear. Finally someone who tells it like it is and waits for election day to judge the outcome.

Sponsored by Water Butler Water Purification Systems and Johantgen Jewelers

Conventional Wisdom-Election 2018 Follies-Podcast 764

 

Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756

As I do the last two podcasts in the toss up series at the Bob Davis Podcasts, more predictions of a democrat wave are most notable. Are these predictions true? We’ll find out in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756.

Shellacking

In addition to commentators AP reported this week that republican pollsters are telling top republicans they’re in for a shellacking in November.

As a mission of the Bob Davis Podcasts I have been looking at those elections deemed ‘toss ups’ by the experts.

Conventional Wisdom Is Right Until Wrong

Especially relevant is the idea behind the mission. No predictions. Non partisan. What is the situation in these key districts in the final weeks of the election. Readers, subscribers and listeners might be surprised to learn very few public polls exist. Conventional wisdom drives most of these predictions. I detail this for each toss up in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756.

Close Elections Don’t Always Mean Flips

From North Carolina to Texas in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756. Toss up races are simply close elections for whatever reason. Moreover most US House elections are in solid democrat or republican districts. This year some say there are more than 40 districts that will be close. Why they’re close is key.

Open Seats And Changing Geography

In some cases the district is an open seat because of retirements. In other cases, the contours of the district’s geography have changed. What was once a solid republican or democrat district is now supposedly more ‘balanced’.

Everyone Hates Congress…

Finally the real question in the 2018 midterms is whether people will vote their opinions of the president or local concerns. The old saying goes, everyone hates congress but not their congressman.

One Size Fits All Election?

In conclusion I spent a fair amount of time not only looking through the data for these districts but also watching some of the internet and TV ads for candidates. Sometimes it’s hard to tell the republican from the democrat. This is not a one size fits all election even though the media would have its viewers believe it is.

Once I finish this series in this podcast, and the next, I’ll do one more podcast with my analysis since there isn’t much time for that in these podcasts dealing with individual districts.

Sponsored by John D Scott Personal Injury Lawyer and the Water Butler Water Purification Systems

Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756

 

2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752

Most people these days don’t dial into elections until after Labor Day. I’m doing a series of podcasts to get you updated on all the so called ‘toss up’ races. Learn more about the Governor’s races in 2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752.

Old Saws Predict Races?

Moreover pundits and statisticians are hell bent for leather to tell you who’s going to win every race. Most noteworthy are the ‘old saws’ of politics. Predictions based on truisms and sayings.

You’re Right Until You’re Wrong

Maybe these old ways of predicting outcomes combined with new data are right. My experience is, they’re right until they’re wrong. I’ll explain in 2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752.

Let The People Decide

Also I believe people should be able to make decisions about who they think is going to win, and who to vote for, without being told who’s going to win three months before election day. Wouldn’t you like to hear some information about this elections without someone telling you who’s going to win? That’s what I do in 2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752.

Local Or National?

For example we’re told that national issues are driving all the races in the 2018 Midterm Elections. Is this true? Or is it possible local issues may be central? In some states taxes and budgets. In others, mining vs environment and business versus agriculture.

States Are Bigger Than You Think

One thing I’ve learned traveling back and forth across this country on two lane roads is the individual states of these United States are very diverse and a lot larger than they look on a map. How does this fact impact the race? Find out in 2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752.

Too Close To Call? Check Again

Finally how many of these races are actually ‘toss ups’. How many contests between gubernatorial candidates really are too close to call? You might be surprised at the answer.

Red or Blue May Not Be

In conclusion the experts say the number of states under partisan party control is important. States are either ‘blue’ or ‘red’. Are all republicans and democrats created equal? Or is the truth somewhere in the middle?

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752

Podcast 554-Latest Election State By State Polls

Podcast 554-Latest Election State By State Polls. For you political junkies, which includes me, it’s been a month since the last analysis of political polls state by state, and I promised another one at the end of September, 2016. If you want to compare the two state by state poll podcasts to really get a sense of movement check out Podcast 541. I do not intend to analyze the debate. I will not tell you who won the debate. I will not tell you whether people pay attention to the debates. None of the current state by state polls were taken after the debates so they do not reflect the effects on either candidate of the debates. With this in mind, over 80 million people watched the September 26th debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. The next state-by-state poll roundup podcast at the end of October will show what effect – if any – the debates may or may not have had. The biggest change between this podcast and the podcast in late August is that there are now more ‘toss up’ states — that is states with poll averages for president within the margin of error. In Podcast 554-State By State Polls, I am drawing on data from Real Clear Politics. Follow the link directly to an interactive electoral map of the United States and follow along, or may your own map. The tightening could be knock on effects from Clinton’s bad week of September 11th, or it could just be due to more polls closer to the election, when respondents start paying attention and are more likely to give responses. You’ll have to listen for my conclusions about whether more toss up states mean anything, but for the most part, both candidates are within the margins in 2012 and 2008 in the states they lead, or are trading leads. The big questions remain Florida, Ohio, Pennsyvania, Virginia, and to a lesser extent North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, and western states like Colorado, Arizona and Nevada. This is a state by state electoral election, so the national polls don’t matter, and the snap polls on who won the debate don’t matter. All that matters is the candidate’s performance, and get out the vote efforts for them in key electoral states. Listen and learn the state by state strongholds, battlegrounds, advantages and disadvantages, roughly a month out. We’ll come back at the end of October and again just before the election in early November, and see how the campaigning, media, and news events have changed the political landscape. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing of Saint Paul.

Podcast 540-The Bob Davis Podcasts Radio Show-40

Podcast 540-The Bob Davis Podcasts Radio Show-40. This week’s radio show addresses some questions about my assertions this election season is a bust. If I’ve learned one thing in years of talk radio, it’s that people want radio hosts and politicians to tell them what they want to hear. That all is well. That the new president inaugurated in January of 2017 will be the one they voted for, and that everything is going to get ‘fixed’ the way they want it. That’s not going to happen. Someone needs to say it, and often. In an election season characterized by the ‘lesser of two evils’ argument, if that is an argument, what if the lesser of two evils is a mistake. What if either choice takes us down a road we may not be able to come back from? That is why we all need to start thinking about building new political movements. The American political system is not working. I am not talking about the Republic, or the constitution. I’m talking about primary elections, controlled by the parties and mandated by state law. I’m talking about the way we choose our leaders. Changing that and putting pressure on political leaders is going to take organization and movements. No, making a few calls and knocking on doors, and going to meetings on Tuesday night once a month isn’t an organization. Why do we need to do this? In Podcast 540-The Bob Davis Podcasts Radio Show-40 I review again my fascination with western history, this week specifically my trip out to western Minnesota, and the deprivations of the settlers from the struggle with the American Indian to infestations of locusts of biblical proportions. Those people embraced the latest technology to handle a far greater challenge than anything we face. Our fear of new technology and obsession with recreating the 1950’s in this country, prevent us from ushering in a new age of opportunity and growth.  Finally, a review of some of the rants this week about the election and the candidates. Sponsored by X Government Cars and Hydrus Performance.

Podcast 250

Election Aftermath. How did the mainstream media do in covering election 2014? What are the primary issues for voters. What happens now? It was announced recently that the Weather Channel Morning Show beat Cable News Networks CNN and MSNBC, hands down, during an election year. Fox News regularly ‘crushes’ rival CNN, and the lesser MSNBC. Broadcast networks covered the midyear elections in 2014, in an effort to compete with cable news services. Based on the reviews from viewers and ‘observers’ of the business and coverage on election night, none of them did a very good job. There was more coverage than ever, but the networks now place political operatives and ‘ideologues’ next to journalists, blurring the lines between opinion and fact. Add to this the increasing need for news networks to employ whatever means necessary to ‘predict’ the outcome of political races. Statistics and polls are never accurate; The only question is whether sample sizes and calculations are reliable. Ideologues may try, but they cannot ‘predict’ the future with a percentage, like a weatherman predicting the chance of rain at 12 noon. The media now blames the polls. One political science professor wants an ‘investigation’ of the ‘the polls’. The polls showed tight races, and while there were a few surprises, results were generally within the margin of error, which for some polls was a perfectly respectable plus or minus 4 points. You could certainly predict the Republican Party would have an historic election, but you couldn’t make that prediction based on polling data. Now, we’re told the polls were biased in favor of Republicans. In 2012, it was the other way around. The problem isn’t the polls, it’s the media’s incessant and unreasonable need to predict, cajole, call races and set the tone. People are getting sick of it, especially when social media, and the Internet provide real time election results without commentary. Who needs CNN, MSNBC and Fox News, and talk radio — all of which will take half an hour to tell you what you can determine in 5 minutes looking at a website that runs all the results as the polls close? What happened in 2014? What emerges from exit polls is a blurry black and white; You can sense shades but not color. You can see form, but you can’t make out anything specific. People are concerned about the Economy, the roll out of ACA and leadership questions concerning the handling of ISIS and Syria, and lastly, Ebola. Is it partisan to suggest the Democratic agenda and campaign tactics focused on issues at the bottom of the list for most voters? Minnesotans wonder why the Minnesota GOP and virtually all the statewide candidates lost a once in a lifetime opportunity to turn out the votes and unseat a democrat governor, and Senator Al Franken, while neighboring Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker seemed to be able to turn out his supporters to win. Is the President still relevant? Will the Republicans come up with an agenda that shows what they’re for, rather than what they’re against? All this in Podcast 250, while shoveling snow! (Editors Note: And maybe a train too!) Sponsored by Baklund R&D

Podcast 244

Halloween 2. The second of 2 Halloween podcasts. This one is a final, relaxed analysis of the political landscape before we head into Election Day next week. Now the election ‘moneyballers’; so called analysts who have been predicting a ‘republican wave’, or not predicting a ‘republican wave’ have begun to hedge their bets as the polls and races tighten. This is a continuing disservice to Americans, because we are being set up to believe the polls show a specific outcome. The 2014 election cycle is 435 local congressional districts, one third of the Senate in statewide races, scores of state legislature races (for example the Minnesota House, but not the Senate.) and races for the Governor’s mansion. The idea that any poll or any number of polls can be predictive of this disparate election terrain is and always has been ridiculous. Did you know, for example, that Colorado’s entire election this year is being conducted with mail in ballots, almost 2 million of which have not yet been received. Meanwhile opinion polls are too close to call across the country, and races that were republican ‘locks’ have flipped, and races that were democrat locks have flipped. And here come the sandbaggers. People who are still sour grapes because they predicted Romney would win in 2012, and have never lived it down. (Editor’s Note: I said all along Romney would lose, and the polls never showed he would win.) Republicans are criticized for talking about ‘momentum’ which seems like a pretty harmless thing to claim, less than a week before election. And then there is Tom Steyer, the turn-coat fossil fuel hedge fund gazillionaire who has put over 50 million dollars into various midterm campaigns and is now the largest contributor to candidates in this cycle. Hey! What about the Koch Brothers? Nope. Steyer and the Unions, pulling a Ben Bernanke, dropping money from helicopters at the last minute in an attempt to win tough senate and house races, and beat people like Wisconsin’s Scott Walker. Finally, a general discussion of how the podcasts intend to cover election night, and the next podcast on the polls. Waiting now for the last spate of polls in the pipeline to be released before election day, and we’ll see if there are any hard and fast ‘predictions’ that can be made. The media continues to set people up emotionally on both sides of the political spectrum to believe predictions that you can’t factually make, and the result is a sense of futility, frustration and disenfranchisement when the expected scenario does not materialize. Elections throughout American history have always been unpredictable, even before 24/7 cable news coverage, screaming roundtables, table pounding talk show hosts and polls. Before the election, a prediction about what democrats will suggest to President Obama after the election, whether the Republicans win the senate or not. Finally a few words about the state of Minnesota Politics, after a visit to the Eastern side of the Saint Croix River, in Wisconsin. Sponsored by Baklund R&D

 

Podcast 229

2014 Election Update. Political Red Meat. The 2014 Election will be a republican wave? Whoa! Hold on there, big shooter! It’s time to go through the toss up states one by one and take a look at what the polls say, how they are averaging and why predictions of a wave election for republicans may not just be off base, but way off base. Part of the problem is media company’s like NBC, which apparently is unable to discern the difference between a satirist and a newsman, between entertainment and information programming. No wonder people watching can’t tell the difference anymore. The other part of the problem is the habit of projecting polling data as actual votes. They are vastly different. Thus, someone is finally going to tell you why predicting republican – or democrat – victories with close races in places like Louisiana, Kansas, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, and yes even Iowa, is nothing more than setting a story line that makes republicans feel good and keeps them watching. They’ve even taken to suggesting Minnesota’s senate race could tighten up because businessman Mike McFadden is such a ‘good candidate’. Really? None of this means a Republican wave can’t or won’t happen, but predicting such a thing is really bad reporting. Another reason we are deeply ill served by our so called ‘news media’ these days, which has become a caricature of what it once was at best, and a gross cartoon at worst. The danger for Republicans is they will do what they always do, tell pollsters they are going to throw the bums out, that they’ll vote in a show of anger toward the bum-in-chief, and then since Fox News is telling them the GOP is on a roll stay home and get comfortable in the chair to watch the election results. God forbid anyone would actually go out and make sure a candidate wins, that’s for someone else. The danger for Democrats is that they will be so demoralized, they won’t vote (not betting on that, though). Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul, and by Depotstar

Podcast 222

2014 Election Coverage. One month away from Election 2014, The Bob Davis Podcasts begins its coverage. All the pundits and big networks have developed story lines for the election this year: What’s going to happen on election night. What is Bob Davis’ story line for the evening of November 4th, 2014, when election results start pouring in across the country. Will it be a Republican Wave? That’s the story line. Is it true? What about Minnesota state elections for state-wide offices and the legislature? How do ‘regular’ people decipher what the polls say, and what they mean? Does any analyst have a handle on what people are thinking going into this election. While voters are dissatisfied with President Obama, they are also dissatisfied with the House of Representatives, the Republican Party and the US Senate. Moreover, with 435 local congressional district elections, 1/3rd of the Senate and local elections across the country, the results may depend on local personalities and local issues. Republicans point to leads in some states they hope to pick up Senate seats in, but are those leads wide enough to overcome democrat turn out advantages. Do Democrats really have a turn-out advantage? And what about those polls? Are they to be believed? Is there a rule of thumb observers can use? Where to go to find the polling data, and the averages all in one place. What will be the big story on election night? Republican take over of the US Senate? Or will the Democrats hold? Will Republicans win state-wide races and the legislature in Minnesota? We welcome your comments and suggestions regarding coverage via the comments section at the Bob Davis Podcasts. And, introducing the over-the-top theme for Election 2014 coverage from the Bob Davis Podcasts. Sponsored by X Government Cars