Podcast 554-Latest Election State By State Polls. For you political junkies, which includes me, it’s been a month since the last analysis of political polls state by state, and I promised another one at the end of September, 2016. If you want to compare the two state by state poll podcasts to really get a sense of movement check out Podcast 541. I do not intend to analyze the debate. I will not tell you who won the debate. I will not tell you whether people pay attention to the debates. None of the current state by state polls were taken after the debates so they do not reflect the effects on either candidate of the debates. With this in mind, over 80 million people watched the September 26th debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. The next state-by-state poll roundup podcast at the end of October will show what effect – if any – the debates may or may not have had. The biggest change between this podcast and the podcast in late August is that there are now more ‘toss up’ states — that is states with poll averages for president within the margin of error. In Podcast 554-State By State Polls, I am drawing on data from Real Clear Politics. Follow the link directly to an interactive electoral map of the United States and follow along, or may your own map. The tightening could be knock on effects from Clinton’s bad week of September 11th, or it could just be due to more polls closer to the election, when respondents start paying attention and are more likely to give responses. You’ll have to listen for my conclusions about whether more toss up states mean anything, but for the most part, both candidates are within the margins in 2012 and 2008 in the states they lead, or are trading leads. The big questions remain Florida, Ohio, Pennsyvania, Virginia, and to a lesser extent North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, and western states like Colorado, Arizona and Nevada. This is a state by state electoral election, so the national polls don’t matter, and the snap polls on who won the debate don’t matter. All that matters is the candidate’s performance, and get out the vote efforts for them in key electoral states. Listen and learn the state by state strongholds, battlegrounds, advantages and disadvantages, roughly a month out. We’ll come back at the end of October and again just before the election in early November, and see how the campaigning, media, and news events have changed the political landscape. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing of Saint Paul.
Podcast 540-The Bob Davis Podcasts Radio Show-40. This week’s radio show addresses some questions about my assertions this election season is a bust. If I’ve learned one thing in years of talk radio, it’s that people want radio hosts and politicians to tell them what they want to hear. That all is well. That the new president inaugurated in January of 2017 will be the one they voted for, and that everything is going to get ‘fixed’ the way they want it. That’s not going to happen. Someone needs to say it, and often. In an election season characterized by the ‘lesser of two evils’ argument, if that is an argument, what if the lesser of two evils is a mistake. What if either choice takes us down a road we may not be able to come back from? That is why we all need to start thinking about building new political movements. The American political system is not working. I am not talking about the Republic, or the constitution. I’m talking about primary elections, controlled by the parties and mandated by state law. I’m talking about the way we choose our leaders. Changing that and putting pressure on political leaders is going to take organization and movements. No, making a few calls and knocking on doors, and going to meetings on Tuesday night once a month isn’t an organization. Why do we need to do this? In Podcast 540-The Bob Davis Podcasts Radio Show-40 I review again my fascination with western history, this week specifically my trip out to western Minnesota, and the deprivations of the settlers from the struggle with the American Indian to infestations of locusts of biblical proportions. Those people embraced the latest technology to handle a far greater challenge than anything we face. Our fear of new technology and obsession with recreating the 1950’s in this country, prevent us from ushering in a new age of opportunity and growth. Finally, a review of some of the rants this week about the election and the candidates. Sponsored by X Government Cars and Hydrus Performance.
Election Aftermath. How did the mainstream media do in covering election 2014? What are the primary issues for voters. What happens now? It was announced recently that the Weather Channel Morning Show beat Cable News Networks CNN and MSNBC, hands down, during an election year. Fox News regularly ‘crushes’ rival CNN, and the lesser MSNBC. Broadcast networks covered the midyear elections in 2014, in an effort to compete with cable news services. Based on the reviews from viewers and ‘observers’ of the business and coverage on election night, none of them did a very good job. There was more coverage than ever, but the networks now place political operatives and ‘ideologues’ next to journalists, blurring the lines between opinion and fact. Add to this the increasing need for news networks to employ whatever means necessary to ‘predict’ the outcome of political races. Statistics and polls are never accurate; The only question is whether sample sizes and calculations are reliable. Ideologues may try, but they cannot ‘predict’ the future with a percentage, like a weatherman predicting the chance of rain at 12 noon. The media now blames the polls. One political science professor wants an ‘investigation’ of the ‘the polls’. The polls showed tight races, and while there were a few surprises, results were generally within the margin of error, which for some polls was a perfectly respectable plus or minus 4 points. You could certainly predict the Republican Party would have an historic election, but you couldn’t make that prediction based on polling data. Now, we’re told the polls were biased in favor of Republicans. In 2012, it was the other way around. The problem isn’t the polls, it’s the media’s incessant and unreasonable need to predict, cajole, call races and set the tone. People are getting sick of it, especially when social media, and the Internet provide real time election results without commentary. Who needs CNN, MSNBC and Fox News, and talk radio — all of which will take half an hour to tell you what you can determine in 5 minutes looking at a website that runs all the results as the polls close? What happened in 2014? What emerges from exit polls is a blurry black and white; You can sense shades but not color. You can see form, but you can’t make out anything specific. People are concerned about the Economy, the roll out of ACA and leadership questions concerning the handling of ISIS and Syria, and lastly, Ebola. Is it partisan to suggest the Democratic agenda and campaign tactics focused on issues at the bottom of the list for most voters? Minnesotans wonder why the Minnesota GOP and virtually all the statewide candidates lost a once in a lifetime opportunity to turn out the votes and unseat a democrat governor, and Senator Al Franken, while neighboring Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker seemed to be able to turn out his supporters to win. Is the President still relevant? Will the Republicans come up with an agenda that shows what they’re for, rather than what they’re against? All this in Podcast 250, while shoveling snow! (Editors Note: And maybe a train too!) Sponsored by Baklund R&D.
Halloween 2. The second of 2 Halloween podcasts. This one is a final, relaxed analysis of the political landscape before we head into Election Day next week. Now the election ‘moneyballers’; so called analysts who have been predicting a ‘republican wave’, or not predicting a ‘republican wave’ have begun to hedge their bets as the polls and races tighten. This is a continuing disservice to Americans, because we are being set up to believe the polls show a specific outcome. The 2014 election cycle is 435 local congressional districts, one third of the Senate in statewide races, scores of state legislature races (for example the Minnesota House, but not the Senate.) and races for the Governor’s mansion. The idea that any poll or any number of polls can be predictive of this disparate election terrain is and always has been ridiculous. Did you know, for example, that Colorado’s entire election this year is being conducted with mail in ballots, almost 2 million of which have not yet been received. Meanwhile opinion polls are too close to call across the country, and races that were republican ‘locks’ have flipped, and races that were democrat locks have flipped. And here come the sandbaggers. People who are still sour grapes because they predicted Romney would win in 2012, and have never lived it down. (Editor’s Note: I said all along Romney would lose, and the polls never showed he would win.) Republicans are criticized for talking about ‘momentum’ which seems like a pretty harmless thing to claim, less than a week before election. And then there is Tom Steyer, the turn-coat fossil fuel hedge fund gazillionaire who has put over 50 million dollars into various midterm campaigns and is now the largest contributor to candidates in this cycle. Hey! What about the Koch Brothers? Nope. Steyer and the Unions, pulling a Ben Bernanke, dropping money from helicopters at the last minute in an attempt to win tough senate and house races, and beat people like Wisconsin’s Scott Walker. Finally, a general discussion of how the podcasts intend to cover election night, and the next podcast on the polls. Waiting now for the last spate of polls in the pipeline to be released before election day, and we’ll see if there are any hard and fast ‘predictions’ that can be made. The media continues to set people up emotionally on both sides of the political spectrum to believe predictions that you can’t factually make, and the result is a sense of futility, frustration and disenfranchisement when the expected scenario does not materialize. Elections throughout American history have always been unpredictable, even before 24/7 cable news coverage, screaming roundtables, table pounding talk show hosts and polls. Before the election, a prediction about what democrats will suggest to President Obama after the election, whether the Republicans win the senate or not. Finally a few words about the state of Minnesota Politics, after a visit to the Eastern side of the Saint Croix River, in Wisconsin. Sponsored by Baklund R&D.
2014 Election Update. Political Red Meat. The 2014 Election will be a republican wave? Whoa! Hold on there, big shooter! It’s time to go through the toss up states one by one and take a look at what the polls say, how they are averaging and why predictions of a wave election for republicans may not just be off base, but way off base. Part of the problem is media company’s like NBC, which apparently is unable to discern the difference between a satirist and a newsman, between entertainment and information programming. No wonder people watching can’t tell the difference anymore. The other part of the problem is the habit of projecting polling data as actual votes. They are vastly different. Thus, someone is finally going to tell you why predicting republican – or democrat – victories with close races in places like Louisiana, Kansas, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, and yes even Iowa, is nothing more than setting a story line that makes republicans feel good and keeps them watching. They’ve even taken to suggesting Minnesota’s senate race could tighten up because businessman Mike McFadden is such a ‘good candidate’. Really? None of this means a Republican wave can’t or won’t happen, but predicting such a thing is really bad reporting. Another reason we are deeply ill served by our so called ‘news media’ these days, which has become a caricature of what it once was at best, and a gross cartoon at worst. The danger for Republicans is they will do what they always do, tell pollsters they are going to throw the bums out, that they’ll vote in a show of anger toward the bum-in-chief, and then since Fox News is telling them the GOP is on a roll stay home and get comfortable in the chair to watch the election results. God forbid anyone would actually go out and make sure a candidate wins, that’s for someone else. The danger for Democrats is that they will be so demoralized, they won’t vote (not betting on that, though). Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul, and by Depotstar.
2014 Election Coverage. One month away from Election 2014, The Bob Davis Podcasts begins its coverage. All the pundits and big networks have developed story lines for the election this year: What’s going to happen on election night. What is Bob Davis’ story line for the evening of November 4th, 2014, when election results start pouring in across the country. Will it be a Republican Wave? That’s the story line. Is it true? What about Minnesota state elections for state-wide offices and the legislature? How do ‘regular’ people decipher what the polls say, and what they mean? Does any analyst have a handle on what people are thinking going into this election. While voters are dissatisfied with President Obama, they are also dissatisfied with the House of Representatives, the Republican Party and the US Senate. Moreover, with 435 local congressional district elections, 1/3rd of the Senate and local elections across the country, the results may depend on local personalities and local issues. Republicans point to leads in some states they hope to pick up Senate seats in, but are those leads wide enough to overcome democrat turn out advantages. Do Democrats really have a turn-out advantage? And what about those polls? Are they to be believed? Is there a rule of thumb observers can use? Where to go to find the polling data, and the averages all in one place. What will be the big story on election night? Republican take over of the US Senate? Or will the Democrats hold? Will Republicans win state-wide races and the legislature in Minnesota? We welcome your comments and suggestions regarding coverage via the comments section at the Bob Davis Podcasts. And, introducing the over-the-top theme for Election 2014 coverage from the Bob Davis Podcasts. Sponsored by X Government Cars!