Podcast 247

Republicans Win! Election 2014 coverage. The final installment from Election Control deep inside the Broadcast Bunker. A minute by minute account of the election results on November 4th 2014. Starting out the podcast skeptical of big Republican wins and finally witnessing an historic ‘wave’ election. The GOP won 8-9 seats in the US Senate taking control of the upper house, more than 12 seats in the House, and 31 gubernatorial contests; The Governor’s races alone are headlines. Wisconsin’s Governor Walker won a tough race leading a number of significant Republican holds, with Governor’s mansion pick ups in 3 traditionally Democrat states; Illinois, Maryland and Massachusetts. In Minnesota the news isn’t so good. While the Republicans won back control of the State House of Representatives, they lost big statewide races including Governor and the US Senate. Stewart Mills, the Republican favored to win in the 8th District lost his bid to unseat Congressman Nolan. (Editor’s Note: The big issue for me was whether predictions of Republicans winning 6 or more seats in the US Senate would come true. I did not feel the polls warranted that prediction, as close races in Kansas, North Carolina and Colorado could have gone either way, but in fact, the polls were pretty close this time. I said a Republican wave was certainly possible. I would rather be surprised, than be disappointed, so I was a little surprised, and you can hear it happen as the podcast progresses through the evening. All predictions, correct and incorrect aside, this is why we have elections; so we can see what happens.) With historic wins by the Republicans in the midyear, the question now is whether President Obama will seek to conciliate and compromise with the new congress, with a much stronger Republican majority than the 113th Congress. What tack will the Republican Senate take with the President on Immigration, Obamacare, Judges, Foreign Policy as well as House investigations on a variety of subjects? Will a Republican Senate seek compromise with the President. If it does, will this endanger a Republican victory in 2016? How will democrats across the country react to this huge victory by Republicans? Is the victory based on low turnout by Democrats, or high turnout by Republicans? Were these votes a repudiation of President Obama, or based on local issues? To be fair, Republican wins are so broad based — Governor’s, House and Senate — its hard not to see it as a statement of disapproval of the President’s policies and leadership by voters. Will President Obama dig in his heels and fight a move to the center? Only time will tell. Sponsored by Baklund R&D. 

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Podcast 245

Election Eve. The first of two podcast over the next 24 hours to get you up to speed on the spin, sandbagging and screeching in the final hours of the 2014 election cycle. Podcast 246 will take an in depth look at the polls and will be ready for Tuesday morning. Podcast 245 is in a little more relaxed setting, and calls attention to some of the things people are writing and saying the polls say, which have no basis. Meanwhile, the next two days are the most difficult for the punditry and the media as campaigns wind down, few new polls are released, and we wait for the votes to be counted. Some people are already sick of the election coverage, especially if you have been watching the news channels (mainly because the incessant political advertising is driving people over the edge), yet others are just starting to pay attention. Most of the polls at this late hour are all within their statistical margin of error, and therefore not conclusive about which candidates and parties have the edge or momentum. While there are one or two notable exceptions, the networks and pundits drive ahead with story lines and claims that the Republicans will take the Senate. While the GOP will gain Senate seats, whether they gain a majority is an open question. Stories this weekend about the Democrats predicting big wins for the Republicans, may actually be an effort to galvanize Democrat supporters to vote, especially when they come from The New York Times, and the Washington Post. In Minnesota, where the races are tightening to within less than ten points in the Gubernatorial Race (and more ominously a tie in the Northeastern part of the state, which is very unusual), and ten points in the Senate race, the Star Tribune runs a story about Senator Franken’s Net Neutrality cause, with little mention of opponent Mike McFadden, on a day in which the two candidates debated. The truth? This may turn out to be one of the most unusual, and therefore historic races in US Political history. The reason? Almost no one can predict what restive voters will actually end up doing. Election returns and final results may be delayed well into the night, and until January 6th at the latest, if run off elections are called for, or if recounts are demanded in close races. Another interesting development is the sudden appearance of pundits either blaming the President (from right and left) for the democrat problems, or making excuses for him. While the President has raised a lot of money for Democrat candidates, many campaign managers feel it was a mistake for some candidates not to distance themselves from the President, earlier and more loudly. And now the sudden predictions of how the White House will become interested in negotiation and compromise. While that is a possibility, President Obama may dig in his heels, and try to rally progressives for a future Elizabeth Warren presidential run. For all the talk about how the President is surrounded by bumblers, it seems like his obstinance, resistance to debate and diversity of opinion, postponing decisions or making outright mistakes can only be blamed on him. How President Obama deals with a Republican House and a newly Republican Senate (which is by no means guaranteed) will be the biggest political story of 2015. Sponsored by X Government Cars and Depotstar. 

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Podcast 241

One Week To Go. Election 2014 Update. On Wednesday morning November 5th, 2014, we will know most of the outcomes for US House of Representatives, and Gubernatorial races. We may not know the full result of the vote for US Senate. Close elections in runoff states mean that we may not know which party will control the US Senate until late on January 6th. Which races are close, which can be called now? In this podcast we’ll go through the close races, the races that will determine whether Republicans take control of the Senate, or Democrats retain a majority. There is, however, one key point about the ongoing Ebola debacle that needs to be addressed. The President spoke recently, attempting to pooh pooh the idea of establishing quarantines for returning ‘health workers’. The idea is, putting ‘health workers’ who are trying to help stop Ebola in Africa, will cause them to think twice before ‘volunteering’. Problem is, President Obama lifted his language directly from a New England Journal of Medicine article, written by Doctors. What’s going on here? First, ‘Health Workers’, are in fact Doctors and Nurses, who want special treatment. While we celebrate their interest in helping in Africa, we also celebrate our own Military Personnel who serve, and are being quarantined (including their officers, all the way to General) upon their return to base in Italy. Why do Doctors and Nurses expect to be treated as special citizens, when one of their own recently returned from West Africa to New York, with Ebola, to take a ride in an Uber Car, go Bowling, and ride the subway? Moreover, doctors and the President say science says a person with Ebola who is asymptomatic is not contagious, but in fact science is inconclusive on this subject. As far as election 2014 is concerned, baseless speculative reporting continues. Suddenly West Virginia is ‘going republican’, why? Maybe it has something to with Obama saying he wanted to put ‘coal out of business’? Oh no, it couldn’t be that, it must be that Hillbillies are racists and hate women. (Editor’s note: This is why I hate the ‘media’). Bloomberg’s Jonathon Bernstein says the media’s problem is there aren’t very many good reporters in states with close races, and he might be right. We know very little about key US House races. Minority leader Nancy Pelosi is reportedly bracing for deep losses for her party. As to the polls, CNN says ‘voters are angry’ (really?). Another poll says Latinos are ‘surprisingly’ OK with a Republican led Senate. Conventional wisdom is the enemy of objective analysis. Hispanic’s political views are becoming increasingly difficult to predict as this is not a monolithic group the media can latch onto, but they try. They sure do try. The polls show tough, close races in Colorado, Iowa, North Carolina, Georgia, Kansas, Alaska, New Hampshire, Kentucky, Louisiana, with some movement in Arkansas. Still, small sample sizes, and electronic interviewing make these polls highly questionable. Run offs in North Carolina, Georgia and Louisiana (where there are multiple candidates) if the winner does not achieve at least 50 percent of the vote, mean there could be US Senate races in 3 states, we will not know the outcome of until after the runoffs. No one can say what will happen…the polls are just too close. Republicans could have a phenomenal night, a good night, or be disappointed, yet still win seats in the House and Senate. Democrats could retain control of the Senate, but lose seats in the house, or suffer heavy losses. It comes down to getting the vote out on election day (even with early voting). Sponsored by XGovernmentcars. 

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