Podcast 554-Latest Election State By State Polls. For you political junkies, which includes me, it’s been a month since the last analysis of political polls state by state, and I promised another one at the end of September, 2016. If you want to compare the two state by state poll podcasts to really get a sense of movement check out Podcast 541. I do not intend to analyze the debate. I will not tell you who won the debate. I will not tell you whether people pay attention to the debates. None of the current state by state polls were taken after the debates so they do not reflect the effects on either candidate of the debates. With this in mind, over 80 million people watched the September 26th debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. The next state-by-state poll roundup podcast at the end of October will show what effect – if any – the debates may or may not have had. The biggest change between this podcast and the podcast in late August is that there are now more ‘toss up’ states — that is states with poll averages for president within the margin of error. In Podcast 554-State By State Polls, I am drawing on data from Real Clear Politics. Follow the link directly to an interactive electoral map of the United States and follow along, or may your own map. The tightening could be knock on effects from Clinton’s bad week of September 11th, or it could just be due to more polls closer to the election, when respondents start paying attention and are more likely to give responses. You’ll have to listen for my conclusions about whether more toss up states mean anything, but for the most part, both candidates are within the margins in 2012 and 2008 in the states they lead, or are trading leads. The big questions remain Florida, Ohio, Pennsyvania, Virginia, and to a lesser extent North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, and western states like Colorado, Arizona and Nevada. This is a state by state electoral election, so the national polls don’t matter, and the snap polls on who won the debate don’t matter. All that matters is the candidate’s performance, and get out the vote efforts for them in key electoral states. Listen and learn the state by state strongholds, battlegrounds, advantages and disadvantages, roughly a month out. We’ll come back at the end of October and again just before the election in early November, and see how the campaigning, media, and news events have changed the political landscape. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing of Saint Paul.
Raising The Stakes. Screenwriters have a tool they employ to make movies thrilling. It’s called Raising The Stakes. This is where the hero seems to be winning. The detective is close to solving the case, but suddenly he’ll find his office has been broken into and all the evidence stolen. Or, the guy is about the get the girl, but he sees her with another guy. Raising The Stakes is how viewers are kept engaged up to the last moment when the plot comes to a climax. This is exactly how political junkies should view the latest results from Tuesday Night April 26th’s presidential primary preference polls. Donald Trump’s sweep of Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, Connecticut and Rhode Island, the Hillary Clinton’s commanding victories in four of those states over Bernie Sanders raise the stakes. They haven’t won their respective party’s nominations for president yet, but they’re about to. Or are they? Get ready because the mainstream media is about the raise the stakes on you again with the next group of primaries all the way up to the final primaries in June. In this podcast, along with results from all the states for both republicans and democrats, a restatement of my bias in this election cycle; I really can’t stand any of the candidates on either side of the political spectrum, and I am not campaigning for any of them overtly or covertly. I am also not part of the so called ‘objective’ #nevertrump crowd. In fact, I wouldn’t cross the street to meet with any of them. Watch the delegate selection process very closely because the final delegate count is going to be different – maybe very different – from what is advertised on all the 24 hour cable news shows. Watch the Senate races where incumbent republicans are vulnerable (I’ll provide a list in this podcast), because for republicans this is going to have a lot more to do with who the nominee will ultimately be than delegates. If the RNC sees the possibility of losing the senate, there may be some plays called in from the sidelines. Hint; A Trump or Cruz candidacy do nothing for vulnerable republican senators, one of whom happens to be Florida’s Marco Rubio. Remember him? Watch the story lines for the next couple of weeks, because suddenly it’s all about how Trump is inevitable. Again, Raising The Stakes. Chances are this race will go down to the conventions, and there’s still a very good possibility it will be a contested convention on the republican side. On the democrat side, all is not well either. Hillary Clinton may have the lion’s share of delegates and super delegates, but many progressives view Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama as sell-outs. There is tepid support for Mrs. Clinton, which might cause her some problems at her convention and in a subsequent general election if she is the nominee. Stay tuned. It’s just getting interesting. Sponsored by X Government Cars and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul.
New York Primary Results. The results of the New York Presidential Primary are in. Now sit back and watch the story lines change. Surprise! After a day of voter confusion and typical New York statements from election officials about investigations, the New York Primary Results are in. Donald Trump won roughly 60 percent of the Republican votes, and Hillary Clinton managed about 57 percent of the Democratic votes in a slightly closer race. The most interesting outcome of this presidential preference poll is which republican candidate came in second. While Trump celebrates a win large enough for him to control a lion’s share of the delegates from the Empire State, Ohio Governor John Kasich ran a good second, and Texas Senator Ted Cruz came in a distant third, which should be enough to change the media story lines from ‘Ted Cruz is posing a strong challenge to Trump’, to whether or not John Kasich could be the nominee for the republicans in a contested republican convention this summer. The next primaries favor Trump and especially Kasich. Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island will hold primaries on April 26th. While most analysts expect Trump to win most of the delegates, many will be keeping a close eye on Kasich. Is the republican establishment working for Trump opponents in states that favor them? Recent polls from Wisconsin suggest that might be true. More establishment figures as well as candidates seem to be pointing toward a contested convention. With the establishment concerned about the so called ‘down-ticket’; the US Senate and House, chances are Trump and Cruz — who don’t poll well against Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders in a head to head match ups — may not be able to get the nomination if they can’t get the required 1237 majority of delegates on the first ballot. This is the main thing to pay attention to in the next few weeks. Ignore the pundits and the exit poll nonsense and focus on the next spate of primaries. Finally, the New York Times reports voters ‘disillusioned’ by primary races that depend on delegate elections, not the popular vote. Are they being sidelined or were voters always sidelined in these state primaries and caucuses? Sponsored by Brush Studio and X Government Cars.