2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752

Most people these days don’t dial into elections until after Labor Day. I’m doing a series of podcasts to get you updated on all the so called ‘toss up’ races. Learn more about the Governor’s races in 2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752.

Old Saws Predict Races?

Moreover pundits and statisticians are hell bent for leather to tell you who’s going to win every race. Most noteworthy are the ‘old saws’ of politics. Predictions based on truisms and sayings.

You’re Right Until You’re Wrong

Maybe these old ways of predicting outcomes combined with new data are right. My experience is, they’re right until they’re wrong. I’ll explain in 2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752.

Let The People Decide

Also I believe people should be able to make decisions about who they think is going to win, and who to vote for, without being told who’s going to win three months before election day. Wouldn’t you like to hear some information about this elections without someone telling you who’s going to win? That’s what I do in 2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752.

Local Or National?

For example we’re told that national issues are driving all the races in the 2018 Midterm Elections. Is this true? Or is it possible local issues may be central? In some states taxes and budgets. In others, mining vs environment and business versus agriculture.

States Are Bigger Than You Think

One thing I’ve learned traveling back and forth across this country on two lane roads is the individual states of these United States are very diverse and a lot larger than they look on a map. How does this fact impact the race? Find out in 2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752.

Too Close To Call? Check Again

Finally how many of these races are actually ‘toss ups’. How many contests between gubernatorial candidates really are too close to call? You might be surprised at the answer.

Red or Blue May Not Be

In conclusion the experts say the number of states under partisan party control is important. States are either ‘blue’ or ‘red’. Are all republicans and democrats created equal? Or is the truth somewhere in the middle?

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2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752

Pawlenty Loss Goes National-Tealeaves-Baseless Predictions 2018-Bob Davis Podcast-747

Welcome back to the world of empty predictions from a primary election. These days it seems like the prognosticators can’t resist telling voters what’s going to happen before they vote. Find out why I say this in Pawlenty Loss Goes National-Tealeaves-Baseless Predictions 2018-Bob Davis Podcast-747.

Shining Tim Pawlenty Steps In To Save The Day

Former two-term Governor Tim Pawlenty had it all. A statewide image. National lobbying experience. The backing of the rich guys too. Pawlenty raised 2.3 million dollars, more than all the other candidates.

Goliath Tim Pawlenty Knocked Down By David Jeff Johnson

Pawlenty still lost the primary to the endorsed MNGOP candidate, Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson. Since DFL Candidate Walz’s is linked in this blog, go here for Jeff Johnson’s official site.

Conventional Wisdom Is Right Until It Isn’t

The national media seized on Pawlenty’s strategic criticism of President Trump as the reason for his loss. Moreover they say this means republican candidates going against Trump will lose. Conventional wisdom says everyone hates Trump. Thus Trumpers may win primaries but lose the general election. Conventional Wisdom is usually right, until it isn’t. Hear it all in Pawlenty Loss Goes National-Tealeaves-Baseless Predictions 2018-Bob Davis Podcast-747.

I have a different view.

Man-Spread Pawlenty and His Rich Guy Political Bullies

I think it’s especially relevant that Pawlenty took a condescending and disrespectful tone in debates with Johnson. He said Johnson will be a three-time loser. “Man Spread” Pawlenty talked tough. He could be governor again if he wanted it. He could win, he said.

Dance with the one who brung ye

Minnesotans don’t like candidates who talk down to voters and their opponents. Especially when it isn’t necessary. Moreover times have changed. Nobody wants yesterday’s governor. Regardless of what happens in the general election, voters don’t appreciate candidates that disrespect the head of their parties.

So Much For The Grassroots On The DFL Side

In contrast DFL endorsed candidate Erin Murphy was defeated by retiring 1st district congressman Tim Walz. So much for the grassroots on the democrat side in Minnesota. Finally Democrat votes outnumbered republican votes in their primary by almost two to one. Consequently all kinds of breathless predictions have been issued about what will happen in November.

Why don’t we wait and see?

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Pawlenty Loss Goes National-Tealeaves-Baseless Predictions 2018-Bob Davis Podcast-747

Truth About 2018 US Senate Predictions-Fairy Tales-Podcast 712

They are at it again. Pundits and talking heads are telling us who’s going to win the 2018 mid term elections. What is the truth about 2018? Find out in Truth About 2018 US Senate Predictions-Fairy Tales-Podcast 712.

Election Day Tuesday November 6th 2018

Tuesday, November 6th, 2018 is a big day. Up for election is the entire US House of Representatives and one third of the US Senate. Governors and state legislators are also up for election on this day.

It Comes Down To Key Races For Republicans and Democrats

This podcast focuses on the US Senate race in 2018. Specifically on several key races that may decide the majority. This is critical for President Trump’s agenda from 2019 and his reelection effort in 2020. Learn the basic contours of these races in Truth About 2018 US Senate Predictions-Fairy Tales-Podcast 712.

The Media IS Doing It Again

Problem is the media has already decided the outcome of this election. It will be democrat wave, they say. The reason? Big national issues favor the democrats. Gun Control. The Me Too movement. Immigration. Trade Protection. Is this true?

These days it seems like when the media says something is going to go one way, it often goes another. I will not tell you what’s going to happen. The Bob Davis Podcasts isn’t in the business of predicting the future, telling people what to think or who to vote for. As in 2016, I’ll try to stick to the facts we know about these races and let you decide what to think about them.

Battleground Senate Races

This podcast focuses on US Senate races in key states considered ‘battlegrounds’. Truth is, republicans are defending fewer vulnerable seats than democratic candidates. Whether than means the GOP will hold onto their majority in the US Senate is quite another question.

All Politics Is Local – Especially Statewide Senate Races

Moreover, Senate races may be effected by national issues, but they are statewide races. Personality and local issues are major factors in such elections. I spend a little time in this podcast outlining examples of regional and geographic political differences. Check it out in Truth About 2018 US Senate Predictions-Fairy Tales-Podcast 712.

Time for Truth about 2018 US Senate Predictions in Podcast 712

In conclusion, despite what the pundits and so called experts tell you, national issues that seem to benefit republicans or democrats, don’t always benefit candidates in tight races in their home states.

Sponsored by Reliafund Payment Processors and Ryan Plumbing and Heating Of Saint Paul

Truth About 2018 US Senate Predictions-Fairy Tales-Podcast 712

 

 

 

Harvey Irma North Korea-DACA-Back In A News Rich Environment-Podcast 661

Back to the grindstone in Harvey Irma North Korea-DACA-Back In A News Rich Environment-Podcast 661. As Texas struggles with the aftermath of one major storm, another is on the way. North Korea’s Hydrogen Bomb and a full congressional schedule means we’re suddenly we’re back in a news rich environment.

President Trump Is Santa Claus

Especially relevant is the question of whether the US Federal Government is actually Santa Claus. Make your list, check it twice. While Republicans talk about individual responsibility when it comes to disaster, concerns about debt and overspending go out the window. Another hurricane, another opportunity for presidents to wear the jacket and the hat and show up to help. It’s all about public relations. We’ll talk about it in Harvey Irma North Korea-DACA-Back In A News Rich Environment-Podcast 661.

Hug Some Babies Phase Out DACA

President Trump made the obligatory trip to the hurricane zone over the weekend, then signed an order to phase out DACA at the beginning of the week. A campaign promise fulfilled, or kicking a problem to congress? Is it wrong to suggest a complete immigration reform package passed before phasing out the program with an executive order might be a better path?

It’s a Business, right?

We expect presidents to rule through fiat. “Run It Like A Business!” Problem is Santa Claus can’t do much with executive orders. Real reform requires congressional action. Getting that done requires real political acumen of the president. Businesses can’t print money to pay off their debt. In Harvey Irma North Korea-DACA-Back In A News Rich Environment-Podcast 661.

Tax Reform Means Raising Taxes

Tax Reform now looms as the next legislative failure for a GOP majority. ‘Cutting Taxes’ might mean raising taxes in places people who voted Republican might not expect. Requiring ‘revenue neutral‘ proposals means ‘tax cuts’ rather than spending cuts. With debt over 100 percent of the GDP maybe Santa Claus should stay home. Not a chance. Find out why I say this in Harvey Irma North Korea-DACA-Back In A News Rich Environment-Podcast 661.

Bombs Away

Then there’s North Korea. They’ve got a bomb and a missile. Trump has a saber to rattle. Maybe it will work. Then again maybe the Doom Merchants on You Tube are right about September 23rd, 2017.

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Harvey Irma North Korea-DACA-Back In A News Rich Environment-Podcast 661

Podcast 239

State Governors Revolt. As New York City gets its first Ebola patient, State Governors now want their own protocols for those coming into their states from West Africa. New York, New Jersey, Florida, Illinois and other states may soon put in place screening protocols that are more stringent than what the Federal Government has put in place. Are Governors ahead of the President on this issue? Governors have to be decisive in a crisis rather than contemplative. The White House keeps saying stricter state protocols will mean aid workers won’t be able to go TO West Africa, but the problem is those coming back FROM Ebola stricken areas in West Africa. Could the CDC charter US carriers to take aid workers to Africa and bring them back, with a mandatory 21 day quarantine whether the returnee had Ebola or not? Call it ‘hysteria’ but the fact is, people are concerned. Telling them not to panic isn’t going to stop panic. The President has to act decisively to address this, not with political theater and not by telling people what he’s GOING to do. Would Airlines cease flights from these regions eventually, since they are responsible for their passengers safety? If Obama had been Governor of Illinois, is it possible he would be better equipped to handle this kind of situation? Meanwhile, there are irresponsible ‘journalists’ out there telling stories of Ebola ‘victims’ being ‘disappeared’, with no named sources, no confirmation of stories, or sourced to some other blog or article. On the political front, yet more polls, less than two weeks from Election 2014 announcing Republicans will win control of the US Senate. Polls in key states are tightening. Some states the GOP thought were wins a few weeks ago, are now in play. The same is happening with some democrat races. A new study shows, in statewide races decided within a point, Democrats win two thirds of the time, and for races within 2 to 4 points Democrats win half the time. Not good odds for Republicans in close races. Another concern is that early voting will increase the number of non citizens voting this year. Non citizens usually vote for Democrats. Now, these are wild cards, but take them into considering when everyone in the media is jumping on the Republican ‘wave’ bandwagon. Perhaps the best bellwether is Democrats who are already developing excuse stories. Republicans will win because they are capitalizing on unreasonable hatred of the President. Yet, Obama’s strongest supporters in 2008 and 2012 are suffering the most under his economic and social policies. Americans are not ‘divided’. There’s no ‘all blue’ or ‘all red’, we are divided politically by issue, not party. Republicans could win the Senate. Or not. We won’t know until after people vote on November 4th. Sharyl Atkinsson’s new book is out and it is said she proves bias at the top networks. Or, does she prove management at the big broadcasting companies are cowards? Sponsored by X Government Cars