2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752

Most people these days don’t dial into elections until after Labor Day. I’m doing a series of podcasts to get you updated on all the so called ‘toss up’ races. Learn more about the Governor’s races in 2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752.

Old Saws Predict Races?

Moreover pundits and statisticians are hell bent for leather to tell you who’s going to win every race. Most noteworthy are the ‘old saws’ of politics. Predictions based on truisms and sayings.

You’re Right Until You’re Wrong

Maybe these old ways of predicting outcomes combined with new data are right. My experience is, they’re right until they’re wrong. I’ll explain in 2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752.

Let The People Decide

Also I believe people should be able to make decisions about who they think is going to win, and who to vote for, without being told who’s going to win three months before election day. Wouldn’t you like to hear some information about this elections without someone telling you who’s going to win? That’s what I do in 2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752.

Local Or National?

For example we’re told that national issues are driving all the races in the 2018 Midterm Elections. Is this true? Or is it possible local issues may be central? In some states taxes and budgets. In others, mining vs environment and business versus agriculture.

States Are Bigger Than You Think

One thing I’ve learned traveling back and forth across this country on two lane roads is the individual states of these United States are very diverse and a lot larger than they look on a map. How does this fact impact the race? Find out in 2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752.

Too Close To Call? Check Again

Finally how many of these races are actually ‘toss ups’. How many contests between gubernatorial candidates really are too close to call? You might be surprised at the answer.

Red or Blue May Not Be

In conclusion the experts say the number of states under partisan party control is important. States are either ‘blue’ or ‘red’. Are all republicans and democrats created equal? Or is the truth somewhere in the middle?

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752

2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 2-Podcast 717

Continuing to run down the toss up races in the 2018 midterm elections for the US House. The big story line? A democrat wave will wrest control of the house from the republicans. In 2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 2-Podcast 717.

From The Midwest Across To The Atlantic Coast

Kansas and Nebraska. East of the Mississippi to Iowa. Minnesota which has some of the closest House races in the country. Illinois in the northern suburbs, and the Land of Lincoln’s southern tip. Across to New York, Georgia, New Hampshire and more.

All About Political Junkies

The second of two parts of a mega podcasting effort for political junkies and subscribers who just want someone to objectively run down all the races in one spot. We’ll challenge some of the myths and tell you why some pundits say this year is a game changer. In 2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 2-Podcast 717.

These days the biggest problem with the media is its penchant for trying to predict the future. Americans are ill served because of this problem. Expectations become truth. Final outcomes turn out to be much harder to predict. Democrats learned this the hard way in 2016’s presidential race.

Republicans Defending The Most Toss Up Seats

Especially relevant is the fact that as a political agnostic, I’m not afraid to tell you there is almost no polling to speak of, despite all the efforts to predict the outcome of 435 House Races. To be sure, the republicans are defending most of the toss up seats.

Why Democrats Believe This Will Be A Wave

Moreover after spending two days poring over election data and reading about local issues and personalties, I can tell you why democrats believe this will be a ‘wave’ election. Do their hopes have any basis in reality? Well. Listen and find out. In 2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 2-Podcast 717.

With the Midterms 7 months away, anything can happen. Moreover primaries in some races will determine the tactical situation in many of the House districts in question. Both parties are furiously trying to raise enough money to compete. Will they be able to commit the resources they’re famous for in the special elections that grabbed all the headlines lately?

All Politics Is Local

That’s the old saying. What are the local issues, personalties and unique characteristics of places we don’t think very much about unless its our home? How many of those out of the way places may have an election that determines the future of our country? Check out 2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 2-Podcast 717 and let’s talk. For the same kind of analysis on the US Senate Toss Up races, go here.

Sponsored by Reliafund Payment Processors and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 2-Podcast 717

Truth About 2018 US Senate Predictions-Fairy Tales-Podcast 712

They are at it again. Pundits and talking heads are telling us who’s going to win the 2018 mid term elections. What is the truth about 2018? Find out in Truth About 2018 US Senate Predictions-Fairy Tales-Podcast 712.

Election Day Tuesday November 6th 2018

Tuesday, November 6th, 2018 is a big day. Up for election is the entire US House of Representatives and one third of the US Senate. Governors and state legislators are also up for election on this day.

It Comes Down To Key Races For Republicans and Democrats

This podcast focuses on the US Senate race in 2018. Specifically on several key races that may decide the majority. This is critical for President Trump’s agenda from 2019 and his reelection effort in 2020. Learn the basic contours of these races in Truth About 2018 US Senate Predictions-Fairy Tales-Podcast 712.

The Media IS Doing It Again

Problem is the media has already decided the outcome of this election. It will be democrat wave, they say. The reason? Big national issues favor the democrats. Gun Control. The Me Too movement. Immigration. Trade Protection. Is this true?

These days it seems like when the media says something is going to go one way, it often goes another. I will not tell you what’s going to happen. The Bob Davis Podcasts isn’t in the business of predicting the future, telling people what to think or who to vote for. As in 2016, I’ll try to stick to the facts we know about these races and let you decide what to think about them.

Battleground Senate Races

This podcast focuses on US Senate races in key states considered ‘battlegrounds’. Truth is, republicans are defending fewer vulnerable seats than democratic candidates. Whether than means the GOP will hold onto their majority in the US Senate is quite another question.

All Politics Is Local – Especially Statewide Senate Races

Moreover, Senate races may be effected by national issues, but they are statewide races. Personality and local issues are major factors in such elections. I spend a little time in this podcast outlining examples of regional and geographic political differences. Check it out in Truth About 2018 US Senate Predictions-Fairy Tales-Podcast 712.

Time for Truth about 2018 US Senate Predictions in Podcast 712

In conclusion, despite what the pundits and so called experts tell you, national issues that seem to benefit republicans or democrats, don’t always benefit candidates in tight races in their home states.

Sponsored by Reliafund Payment Processors and Ryan Plumbing and Heating Of Saint Paul

Truth About 2018 US Senate Predictions-Fairy Tales-Podcast 712

 

 

 

Podcast 509

Final Primary In South Dakota. A gonzo talk podcast from the driveway aboard Mobile Podcast Command as we load in and run through the checklists before final departure to the Mount Rushmore State. Why South Dakota? First it’s been awhile since a road trip. Second, coverage of the Presidential Preference Primaries and Caucuses began with Wisconsin Governor Walker’s candidacy announcement last summer, continued into Iowa in February, onto South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, on through to Texas and back home in the first couple of weeks of March. So it is a fitting end that one of the states with the latest primaries, as opposed to the earliest, is South Dakota. While all eyes are focused on the June 7th primary in California, because Bernie Sanders is giving Hillary Clinton fits there, do you think anyone is going to cover voting in South Dakota? That’s why I am going. Aside from the fact that South Dakota is awesome, from the Sturgis celebration to Deadwood, Mount Rushmore, Rapid City and more. Even with the contest between Sanders and Clinton in the Golden State, the media still seems to be focused on finding some negative way to define ‘presumptive’ republican nominee Donald Trump and by extension, the Republican Party. First it was Trump the authoritarian. Then it was Trump the fascist with his incitements to violence – which as an aside seems to be on the other side, with ‘anti-trump protesters’ spitting at passive Trump supporters and my sense is this gets the New York Developer more votes and may just put him in the White House but I digress. Suddenly Trump is Zachary Taylor, 12th president of the United States, and the Republican Party is the Whig Party. Is this an apt comparison? Maybe, even with the scare quotes to describe Taylor and Whigs, but then again, kind of not really. Politics feels like heavy metal, the energy is so low and the results so negative. It’s gonna be good to get out on the road. Sponsored by Brush Studio and Hydrus.

Podcast 495

The Light At The End Of The Tunnel? The Light At The End Of The Tunnel? It’s probably a train, right? First Ted Cruz quits the race, then the next day John Kasich quits. So, it is now fair to say that Donald J. Trump has a clear path to be nominated as the Republican Presidential Candidate at the Republican convention this summer. Yes, suddenly the republican establishment which so hated ‘The Donald’ it allowed #nevertrump to continue and in some cases encouraged it, has suddenly embraced the hated Trump even switching over to #neverhillary. So much for the so called ‘principled conservative’ at the top of the GOP. Now what? There’s a lot of ground to cover between now and the last primaries in June, and the conventions. Since there have already been a number of surprises in 2016, it’s fair to say just about anything could happen at either the republican or democrat convention. In treating the media story-lines with healthy skepticism, one wonders what happens to the Red State Blogs and Glenn Beck’s of the world? What happens to all the #nevertrump and Cruz supporting talk show hosts? Do they suddenly start working for Hillary Clinton? What about the outside possibility Bernie Sanders wins California and democrat super delegates start abandoning the USS Hillary? If Trump is the nominee – and to be fair it looks like he is going to be unless something happens between now and Cleveland – can he win the presidency? Already we’re seeing the same kind of ‘predict the future’ journalism now, we saw at the beginning of the Trump candidacy. Trump can not win, he starts in the hole and will never beat Clinton or Sanders. He’s a bully. He’s a xenophobe. He’s an authoritarian. If you’re a woman you’ll vote for Hillary. There are protests against Trump in the streets which may end up helping his candidacy, actually. Can Trump win? Of course he can. He went against the odds and crushed a whole field of republicans, although media compliments aside, the republican field this year was a disaster and the debates exposed them all as completely unprepared for the spotlight, except for the one guy who knows how to play the TV Reality Show Game. So yeah, Trump can win. The only problem with a Trump presidency is, republicans will probably regret it. Conservatives for Trump? Don’t make me laugh. Trade protection, Keynesian economics and nativism are hardly ‘conservative’ ideas. There are going to be a lot of long faces for republicans when they learn what a Trump presidency might actually mean for them, unless you want to work at a bucket factory or coal mine, where millennials with graduate degrees want to work, right? On the other hand, why not? It’s gonna be great! For too long republicans have masqueraded as conservatives, railing against abortion and same-sex marriage while they voted to increase budgets year after year for things like ‘education’ and stadiums for billionaire sports owners. Who deserves Trump? Republicans deserve Trump. The Light At End Of The Tunnel? It’s a Trump. No wait! It’s a train. Sponsored by X Government Cars and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul.

 

Podcast 483

Political Depression. To close out March, 2016 after a quick review of this week’s headlines, one can only conclude we’re in a Political Depression. It’s depressing to read about and depressing to talk about. Yet, there are compelling developments to talk about. On the heels of the Marco Rubio announcement that he will not release ‘his’ delegates to the RNC on the first ballot, and a letter from a North Dakota Republican National Convention Official which states that the delegates are not bound, even on the first ballot, the time has come once again to remind listeners and voters you have not been caucusing and voting for presidential candidates for 2016. The people who will choose the 2016 nominee are the delegates to the national convention, chosen by congressional district. So, in Minnesota if you left the caucus after casting your straw poll votes, and did not get a chance to go to the BPOU convention, and then onto the congressional district convention where you might have been chosen as a delegate to the RNC, you were wasting your time. In fact, people voting in the primary elections on both sides of the political spectrum appear to have been wasting their time, since both party ‘establishment’ structures have taken pains to point out the delegates choose the candidates, and the party bosses have that well in hand. Are we going to be saying hello to a Bush running against a Clinton, or a retreat of 2012 for the RNC, Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan? The next waypoint in this process will be when we get to the end of the primary and caucus process which ends sometime around June. If Ted Cruz or Donald Trump do not get the required number of 1237 delegates – enough to win a vote on the first ballot – the convention will be thrown into chaos. What does the Republican Party stand for? Once the general election gets underway, its going to become quite clear how much damage this cycle’s primary season has done to the republican party. What about the future? What do republicans stand for? Are they free trade or protectionist? Big government or limited government? Driven by religion, or open minded? Will republicans give up and just allow party officials to dictate to them who to vote for, or will they finally start working on on building a real grassroots political movement? Time will tell. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul, X Government Cars and Pride of Homes Real Estate.

Podcast 451

New Years Podcast 2015 and Heartfelt Thanks. Big thank you’s to listeners, clients and people who have helped me develop the Bob Davis Podcasts along the way. As I review all the podcasts for 2015 I am a little surprised at the breadth and depth of podcasting content. It’s also interesting to note the metamorphosis I’ve gone through, starting with the News Cleanse in the summer of 2014, through to content that reflects more of what is going on in my mind just beneath the surface. The need to go deeper, both personally and on the issues, rather than to chronicle the daily outrage machine has become a hallmark of these podcasts. Add to that the new mobility enabled with Mobile Podcast Command and you have the wrinkles added to these podcasts in 2015. Its hard to believe we started 2015 back in January with Podcast 284 talking about the ‘Polar Vortex’ and end 2015 with podcast 451, which focuses on the lessons of small business, content creation and entrepreneurship. First to thank the clients of The Bob Davis Podcasts, who have become more than clients, but advisors and mentors. Then to family and friends who have provided support in so many ways including my son – who recently appeared on the podcasts with his own content creation effort – and the General Manager of the Podcasts; My Mom. Finally to the subscribers, listeners and contributors to the Bob Davis Podcasts. As I review the podcasts I hope my goal of going deeper on issues with interviews, ‘study pieces’, coverage of the 2016 election cycle that takes you inside events, New Thinking, Walk and Talk Podcasts and talk about the issues that matter to you, the audio book and new radio show, pays off on the promise of what podcasting can be. Thanks each and every one of you for supporting this effort in 2015. Here’s to us doing great things in 2016. Sponsored by X Government Trucks and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul.

Podcast 415

Republican Nightmare. With the suspension of Governor Scott Walker’s Presidential campaign comes an opportunity to critique Republican politics, specifically the leadership and Republican rank and file. Aside from the snark, the media has reported that the Wisconsin Governor lamented the absence of ‘Reagan Style Optimism’ in Republican politics so far in the 2016 cycle. Thing is, Republicans themselves aren’t optimistic. In fact Republicans these days are so pessimistic one wonders if they would recognize Ronald Reagan if he were resurrected, or even vote for him. It sure seems like most Republicans think the President is a secret muslim, hell bent on destroying the country, that China took all our jobs, that Jesus is coming back (as soon as the election is over) and all sorts of other rather negative ideas, even if you think they’re true. Can the Republicans win a national election with this kind of negative view of the present situation and the future? Can you win a national election with no real economic plan, save for tax cuts, no foreign policy plan, no real domestic plan and nothing but a list of debatable complaints? The solution appears to be Donald Trump, a reality TV star with a penchant for one liners, and the absence of something called ‘a plan’. As Trump’s popularity increases, preference for the so called Republican Brand decreases. And yet, because of GOP rule changes in 2012, if Donald Trump can translate poll numbers into wins in five states, he may have enough delegates to win the Republican nomination. Who will stop him? Jeb Bush? Chris Christie? Rand Paul? Mike Huckabee? Marco Rubio? Ted Cruz? Lindsay Graham? Which of these candidates can win five states? Or, even one? Scott Walker is suggesting the party unite around someone, anyone other than Trump. Who’s fault IS Trump anyway? Have the moderates — interested only in holding onto their power — screwed the pooch? The moderates are the ones who wanted the debates, and they’re responsible for the monolithically stupid rule changes in 2012, and the rules that allowed the debates to be stacked toward candidates who did well in hack polls. Because of this, you might be saying hello to Republican Presidential Nominee Donald Trump in the future. This is why 2016 may turn out to be a terrible sequel of 2008, and 2012 for the GOP. We are getting close to Halloween, after all. Sponsored by Autonomous Cad, and Pride of Homes

Podcast 395

Simple Solutions. On the campaign trail, it all sounds so easy. ‘Take the fight to ISIS’, ‘Take from the rich, give to the poor’, ‘Make America Great Again’, ‘Fix the economy!’, and so on. Lots of barnstormers mostly rolling through Iowa hayfields, standing at picnics, throwing out bromides and quick fixes for whatever ails the nation. With so many politicians, suddenly all our problems seem, well solvable. We want our foreign policy ‘problems’ and economic problems solved as quickly as we reorder a latte, or another salad with the right dressing. When things don’t work smoothly, we throw a tantrum and demand fixes right now. In political theater we want sound bite solutions and we want problems solved preferably before the end of the show. There isn’t anything a podium pounding politician or talk show host can’t solve, dammit! Just send in the special forces, give everyone a tax cut, shut down the border, open up the economy, light up the Russians and the Chinese and well, make American Great Again. Right? The latest ‘truth tellers’ don’t really propose any solutions, they propose more rhetoric. Who’s to blame? We are. We don’t want to know how complex our problems might be. We don’t want to know how difficult they are to solve, when it comes to corralling 435 Congressmen, 100 Senators, countless cabinet secretaries, experts, lawyers, Supreme Court Justices, and the media. We just want someone to tell us what we want to hear. Send in a few hundred ‘special forces guys’ to take care of ISIS, or a B-1 Bomber. Fix the economy. Cure the moral character. And shut those liberals up while you’re at it. What this country needs is a businessman! What this country needs is a General! What this country needs is (fill in the blank). What this country needs is a grown up electorate. Given a steady diet of onion rings, Fox News (or CNN), or the Daily Beast and Buzz Feed, what are the chances that will happen? Sponsored by X Government Cars

Podcast 393

Live From EAA. Road trip to Osh Kosh, for the Experimental Aircraft Association Air Show and Convention. Sunday night is set up night, providing an opportunity to review recent trips to Waukesha and Davenport to cover political events, and to talk a little about the difference between political events and shows like this one. Maybe it’s as simple as the differences between tribes; People who are in the political tribe after certain characteristics, and people in the aviation tribe have certain different characteristics. What started as an experimental and individual builder get together has turned into a technology, history, and aviation show with exhibitors big and small. In some ways it compares favorably to the big state fairs across the country this summer. Somehow talking about politics doesn’t feel as good as talking about planes, and technology, here in Eastern Wisconsin, at the peak of summer. Still, some points need to be made before we head off into the wild blue yonder. Again the point is made that television news in particular magnifies and amplifies events that used to be state by state almost private affairs; self selected delegates and caucus attendees ‘interviewing’ potential candidates, and figuring out who they might support when a state’s primary election or caucus is held. Now these affairs are conflated with news events on a national or international scale. Are they news? Is it news when Donald Trump says something silly in a meeting of a few hundred (at most), a third of which are national media? Is it news if Bernie Sanders and Martin O’Malley are forced off a stage somewhere at a meeting of rag tag leftists? Maybe its statewide news, maybe its political news, but ‘go-to-live-coverage’ and ‘breaking news’. Not yet. The ideas that will drive 2016’s presidential election are still forming, so commenting on them, trying to define them, is almost pointless when you can hear the corn growing if you stand real still in a field in Wisconsin, or Iowa. Whether or not any of the score of declared candidates can rise to the level of being able to connect with people who aren’t political groupies remains to be seen. Meanwhile, there is a B-52 and a Ford Trimotor warming up on the runway, and that seems more interesting. Sponsored by X Government Cars