Podcast 571-Bob Davis Podcasts Radio Show 52. Final Thoughts On Election 2016. The biggest loser in election 2016 is The Media. Specifically, pundits, prognosticators and predictors of the future. The Media did it to us through the masochistic 2 year presidential election cycle. Before President-Elect Trump has had a chance to get a good night’s sleep after a grueling election, we’re already being told what kind of president he’ll be. He is either the second coming of Reagan or the Anti-Christ. Four new mini podcasts for your weekend and some reminders about why I did not endorse, promote, defend, or attack candidates and positions. In 2016 the Media failed to cover any of the issues in favor of lurid, shock oriented gossip. So a new administration takes office while a poorly informed public nurses preconceived notions about what is ‘going to happen’. First thing to tackle? “The Polls Were Wrong”. What is wrong is the media’s reliance on national presidential preference polls, drawing incorrect conclusions and making predictions based on those conclusions. If you were surprised at the outcome of election 2016 it’s because of what you were watching and listening to. The Bob Davis Podcasts steadfastly maintained the polls were too close to call in key states. Given how close the race was in Ohio, and Pennsyvania, Florida, North Carolina and Wisconsin, Trump won because voters for Obama in 2008 and 2012 did not show up for Clinton. Trump was able to get enough people to vote for him to overwhelm Clinton where it counted. Elections are not won with polls. Elections are not won with predictions. Election outcomes are determined by the people who vote. Second thing to tackle? “Donald Trump Is Anti Establishment. The Establishment was Beaten”. Really? Who’s in charge of the Republican Party, the US Congress and the Senate? Who are the people running Trump’s transition team and where do they come from? In 2016 both mainline political parties rejected the grassroots in their parties in favor of candidates they thought could win. Finally, travel is the best way to temper judgements about what is going on in this country and what will happen as a result. The United States is still vibrant. From Silicon Valley to the Chesapeake Bay, from North Dakota to the Texas Gulf Coast. In my travels in 2016 I met people going to work, running their businesses, taking care of their kids and living their lives. Guess what? They weren’t hanging on every word spoken by Wolf Blitzer or Laura Ingram. While there are places worse for wear or facing tough challenges, on balance this country is not falling apart, despite what the charlatans say. The country now needs to think about the challenges and opportunity ahead. We need to take full advantage of the technology revolution on our doorstep. In Podcast 571-Bob Davis Podcasts Radio Show 52, I’ll run it all down for you. Sponsored by Brush Studio and Hydrus.
Podcast 570-Election 2016 Results. Comprehensive analysis and minute by minute vote totals for Election 2016. How do podcasters cover presidential elections in real time without being live on the air, and without streaming? Podcast 570-Election 2016 Results shows you how. Follow along as I experience the election in real time on November 8th, 2016. The world seems surprised at news that Donald J. Trump has won the presidential election in The United States. Podcast 570 and Podcast 569 are meant to be listened to as companion podcasts. Since I did not endorse either candidate, I was able to provide objective analysis and experience the race objectively. Podcast 569 broke down the final poll data for the state by state races, avoiding any analysis of the national presidential preference polls. This minimized the surprise for anyone subscribing to the Bob Davis Podcasts, because you already knew no one could comfortably call this race. That did not stop the charlatans in talk radio, cable news and on line from attaching probabilities, or calling the race for one or the other. Not only was this race surprising overall, it was surprising on the state by state level. For the most part though, the state by state polls were either close to the totals in some cases, or within the margin of error. The US election is a state by state election, with the electoral college actually choosing the president on or about the 15th of December. In this hour plus long podcast I’m joined by friends, and family on the phone as well as a late night visit from local Minnesota Politico and web developer Mitch Rossow. At the close of this podcast we’re still waiting for Michigan and Minnesota returns to come in. I’ll have to update those on the next podcast. With Republicans retaining the Senate and the House majorities, and now winning the Presidency, now it is a question of the way forward. We’ll be talking about these issues and more on future podcasts. Pundits like to say the country is divided. What they might say is we can now agree on one thing. The worst election in recent memory is now, mercifully, over. And, tomorrow is another day, after all. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating and X Government Cars.
Podcast 569-Final State by State Round Up. Where the state polls stand for presidential candidates right before election day 2016. This podcast does not endorse a candidate. I will not make you feel good or bad about your vote, or non vote. I will not attach ‘indexes’ and ‘percentage probabilities’ to potential wins or losses for the candidates. In Podcast 569-Final State by State Round Up, how candidates fare in each of the states according to existing polls. Partisan and advocacy journalists don’t provide insight on survey research. I do. What you’re getting from the cable news channels and advocacy news ‘websites’ are charlatans pushing their point of view. Fact is, no one knows how the election will play out in any of the so called battleground states. That’s because despite all the best effort, even the best political researchers are challenged to determine who is actually going to show up to vote especially when the polls show a close vote, within the margins of error. Elections are made on who votes. Not the number of signs. Not the number of people who show up at rallies. Not who ran the best TV spots. It’s all about getting the vote out. Once the vote is in, it’s all about counting. Is the election rigged? In a sense, yes. The United States is a representative republic which elects its executive not by the popular vote but through an institution known as the Electoral College. Some states’ electoral slates are proportionally chosen. Some states select electoral slates by party. The electors themselves have already been chosen. They will actually select the President of the United States on December 15th, 2016. In some states the popular vote determines how the electors are ‘supposed’ to vote. In some states it depends on which party’s candidate wins the overall vote. No so called ‘rogue elector‘ has ever been prosecuted for voting outside the state statute guidelines. In the event of an electoral tie, the election will be decided by the US House of Representatives. One thing is true, the republicans are the ones talking about ‘rigged’ elections right now, but if Donald Trump wins the presidency they’ll stop talking about that immediately and the democrats will start talking about things being ‘rigged’. The only thing coverage of these kinds of conspiracies do is reduce the faith Americans and the rest of the world has in the electoral process. In reality, ‘rigging’ a national election is a difficult task, despite what movies and conspiracy theorists say. If you are concerned about your candidate winning the election, the best thing you can do is turn off the TV and get out and help them win by driving people to the polls or making last minute calls, poll watching, or if you’re qualified, volunteering as an election judge. Thankfully we’ll be looking at election night results in the next podcast. Sponsored by Hydrus Performance and Brush Studio, in the West End, Saint Louis Park.
Podcast 566-BobDavisRadioShow-50. October final State By State Poll roundup. Podcast 566-BobDavisRadioShow-50 covers the hysteria around polling these days and what to watch for in the final two weeks of campaigning. Charlatans abound in the political world. Almost everyone telling you one candidate, or the other, is going to win has a hidden agenda. Some want to make themselves famous. Some are shilling for a candidate. Ignorance on what political research actually is has now commingled with Trump’s claims the polls and thus the election are rigged. My response to a subscriber email about push polls is typical. Someone, somewhere talked about push polls so now everyone thinks the polls are push polls. Or, the John Podesta email suggesting internal polling over same democrats has everyone convinced all the pollsters are in the tank for Clinton. Sigh. The polls used on Real Clear Politics, and the polls I use for Podcast 566-BobDavisRadioShow-50 are polls taken by media organizations or university political science departments. A push poll is a poll designed to ‘push’ a respondent into voting one way or another. Usually there is very little polling data collected in so called Push Polls. Are the polls right? A good poll isn’t right or wrong, it is reliable. Listen to this show and you’ll know more about polling than anyone on your block. Listen to the other podcasts about polling I have done and you’ll understand more about what is going on. First, it is not a popular vote that elects the President of the United States. The US Election is an electoral affair so all the action is in the state by state polls. You can aggregate these polls. You can average these polls. However, you cannot aggregate and average them and place a probability on whether one or the other candidate will win. All the poll averaging does is give you a birds eye view of the battlefield. The must win electoral states change election cycle to election cycle. No predictions will be made here. I will give you a truthful and honest analysis of where the mainline campaigns stand on the eve of election day, 2016. Sponsored by Hydrus Performance, Ryan Plumbing and X Government Cars.
Podcast 554-Latest Election State By State Polls. For you political junkies, which includes me, it’s been a month since the last analysis of political polls state by state, and I promised another one at the end of September, 2016. If you want to compare the two state by state poll podcasts to really get a sense of movement check out Podcast 541. I do not intend to analyze the debate. I will not tell you who won the debate. I will not tell you whether people pay attention to the debates. None of the current state by state polls were taken after the debates so they do not reflect the effects on either candidate of the debates. With this in mind, over 80 million people watched the September 26th debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. The next state-by-state poll roundup podcast at the end of October will show what effect – if any – the debates may or may not have had. The biggest change between this podcast and the podcast in late August is that there are now more ‘toss up’ states — that is states with poll averages for president within the margin of error. In Podcast 554-State By State Polls, I am drawing on data from Real Clear Politics. Follow the link directly to an interactive electoral map of the United States and follow along, or may your own map. The tightening could be knock on effects from Clinton’s bad week of September 11th, or it could just be due to more polls closer to the election, when respondents start paying attention and are more likely to give responses. You’ll have to listen for my conclusions about whether more toss up states mean anything, but for the most part, both candidates are within the margins in 2012 and 2008 in the states they lead, or are trading leads. The big questions remain Florida, Ohio, Pennsyvania, Virginia, and to a lesser extent North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, and western states like Colorado, Arizona and Nevada. This is a state by state electoral election, so the national polls don’t matter, and the snap polls on who won the debate don’t matter. All that matters is the candidate’s performance, and get out the vote efforts for them in key electoral states. Listen and learn the state by state strongholds, battlegrounds, advantages and disadvantages, roughly a month out. We’ll come back at the end of October and again just before the election in early November, and see how the campaigning, media, and news events have changed the political landscape. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing of Saint Paul.
Podcast 552-The Bob Davis Podcasts Radio Show-45. Four segments of new content for this week’s radio show, live from AgoraFest in rural Western Wisconsin. Really, four ‘mini-podcasts’ for your weekend. We’re back in a news rich environment, which means there’s no reason to excerpt content from this week’s podcasts for the radio show. How much of a role does escapism play in our lives? What constitutes healthy escape, versus unhealthy escape. IS there unhealthy escape? How much of a role does escape play in our national political picture in the current time frame. Next, a discussion of new thinking versus old thinking. An experience at a digital marketing seminar, and networking meet up sparks a discussion about how old thinking can permeate the mind of a person who’s already worked hard to eliminate old thinking from their day to day thought processes. With revolutionary methods of marketing and communication, new tools for amplifying the individual and the very real idea that we’re on the verge of a revolution in what we make, how we make it, how we market, and how we communicate, it’s always a surprise to realize how much old thinking can still be a thought of your day to day processes. Finally, we close Podcast 552-The Bob Davis Podcasts Radio Show-45 with a discussion of the political landscape just ahead of the first presidential debate the week of September 26th. With two more presidential debates and one vice presidential candidate debate ahead in 2016, we’re nearing the end of the 2016 presidential election cycle. It’s been the express policy of this podcast not to endorse either candidate or either party, but to allow licensers to do their own work, and pick their own path. A short discussion here of what level news story provokes valid discussion in these podcasts, versus day to day news and reaction to the news that doesn’t have much of an impact. Moreover, the story lines promoted by the big news organizations, whether intentional or subconscious, don’t inform or enlighten anyone. Thus, the nomination of Donald Trump, the movement of the Trump campaign to ‘the center’, and the collapse of Hillary Clinton have been the big stories of late. The debates will have tremendous influence on the outcome of this election. What are some things to look for, and what might be ahead when we next examine the state-by-state polls in detail. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and X Government Cars.
Podcast 550-Bob Davis Podcasts Radio Show-44. This week it’s been all Hillary All The Time as the media thrives on a new story line. The health of Democratic Presidential Candidate Hillary Clinton. In this week’s radio show, two new segments of original content, and two excerpts from the podcasts the previous week as the story broke. From the speculation on social media, to the You Tube conspiracy theories, to the political fall out, to the polls, a comprehensive view of the Hillary Clinton Health Scare, starting with her collapse at the memorial service in New York City on September 11th, 2016, in Podcast 550-Bob Davis Podcasts Radio Show-44. Already a poll of ‘rust belt’ states shows Trump in the lead in Ohio. The poll was taken on the weekend of September 10th on the heels of her ‘deplorables’ comment and the collapse during the 9-11 memorial in New York. The state by state polls already show a tightening race. With 50 days left until the election, it remains to be seen how damaging what happened to Clinton, for whatever reason, will be politically. If the polls show significant damage to the Clinton campaign, the democrats still have time to win the race, if they handle this right, so Republicans counting their chickens might want to be a little less exuberant. On the other hand, this is a race which Clinton has been firmly leading since the conventions in August, so this is a significant development. Unfortunately, the voters will probably never know what ails Clinton because the newspapers and television networks with the resources to investigate this issue, have clearly shown they’re not interested. A day after Clinton was sent home with medications for ‘pneumonia’, the New York Times front page and the Minneapolis Tribune front page didn’t even mention the story. CBS edited out former President Bill Clinton’s comments suggesting Hillary Clinton has fainted ‘frequently’. So, we’ll probably never know what’s wrong with her, win or lose. Meanwhile conspiracy theory You Tubers, websites and radio shows continue to disservice of speculating on her health with diagnoses from charlatan ‘doctors’ on her ‘condition’ based on videos. Is there something wrong with her? Yes. Do we know what it is? No, despite a release of her medical records (probably incomplete) from the campaign. The worst two mainline party candidates in a hundred years continue to battle it out down to the wire when Americans cross their fingers and roll the dice, on November 8th, 2016’s bad bed election. Sponsored by X Government Cars.
Hillary’s 911. Finally the mainstream media is picking apart the vagaries of the Clinton response to her health scare in New York on September 11th, 2016. After months of harping on the republicans with Trump this and Trump that, suddenly the former Secretary of State is the lead story, and it is not flattering. After Democratic Presidential Candidate Hillary Clinton had to leave a 9/11 memorial event, and collapsed on the street before she got into a van, every news source, advocacy media, You Tube Video, Podcaster, and blogger including yours truly, is speculating on what her problem might be. The answer? No one knows. No one knows no matter what they tell you. No one will know whether Hillary Clinton becomes President, or loses the race to Donald Trump. In the short term the video from this weekend is damaging enough that one would expect future polls – state by state polls – might dip in favor of Donald Trump. On the other hand, don’t count your chickens Trump supporters. First, there’s always the sympathy vote, and second democrats might conclude that Clinton would make a better president on her worst day than Trump on his best. In a race characterized by high negatives, the two worst presidential candidates in a long time continue a comedy of errors, lurching from one rhetorical flourish to another, up to and including Clinton’s latest health scare. Either way, voters will have to make a choice in November to vote for one of the mainline candidates – unless she drops out and don’t count on that – or one of the so called independent candidates. Meanwhile speculation continues with social media denizens and yes, conspiracy theorists armchair and otherwise, telling you she’s an alien, suffering from Parkinson’s Disease, a cancer victim, a stroke victim, a victim of brain damage and anything else that can be ‘proven’ by slow motion video, short cuts of her responses to question, speeches on the campaign trail and whatever people can get their hands on. None of it proves anything other than, we don’t know. We won’t know in the near future and we may never know. We’re still going to have to vote. As predicted the democrats have trotted out pictures of FDR in a wheel chair, campaign staff are crying ‘mea culpa’ in response to questions about who knew what and why the media wasn’t told about ‘pneumonia’ and on and on. Yep. Hillary’s 911. All Hillary All The Time. One more necessary breaking news political podcast in this worst-election-in-memory-and-maybe-in-all-history podcast. Sponsored by Brush Studio at the West End and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul.
What’s Wrong With Hillary? Breaking News means a walk and talk podcast. At issue? Hillary Clinton collapses again, this time after leaving a 9-11 memorial event because of ‘heat exhaustion’. Her departure was so unanticipated she had to wait for the limo, and while waiting could not stand without help, then collapsed while trying to get in. On the heels of a coughing fit on her own airplane during the first press conference she’s held in weeks, coughing fits, weird reactions to questions and lots of conspiracy theorists opining about what ails her, now the mainstream media will be asking What’s Wrong With Hillary? Her doctors say she has walking pneumonia. Others say she suffers from the knock on effects of a blood clot on the brain from a fall when she was Secretary of State. I have some experience with this, since my own father had a blood clot on the brain and I can tell you the knock on effects aren’t good. Regardless of what is wrong with her, whether anything is wrong with her, whether a release of her medical records will make any difference at this point, 60 days from the general election former Secretary Hillary Clinton’s health is now being questioned. Not good for any presidential campaign, and very not good for a campaign which has had issues with transparency since the get go. Subscribers to The Bob Davis Podcasts have been warned repeatedly not to put stock in national polls. Watch what happens now as the media touts a new poll showing Clinton up by 5, taken before the latest health episode. Watch state by state polls in the coming weeks for the real story. Ohio, Florida, Georgia, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada have all been placed in the ‘toss up’ category, and Trump now leads by a point or so in a few of those key races as the numbers tighten up. Another major story impacting now is the bond markets and the Federal Reserve. The stock market dropped more than three hundred points last week in a nasty correction. A health scare for the democratic candidate is one thing. A health scare for the world economy is quite another. Fasten your seats belts – again – election 2016 is getting more and more interesting, even if the potential outcome either way is a horror show. Sponsored by Hydrus Performance and X Government Cars.
Podcast 545-Bob Davis Podcast Radio Show-42. It’s labor day weekend, and as people head to the lake or to the State Fair, Podcast 545-Bob Davis Podcast Radio Show-42 is almost an hour of brand new content for the trip, and for your extra long holiday weekend. We start with a review of the week’s political landscape. Despite better national presidential preference numbers for Trump, state by state polls have not tightened appreciably in key electoral vote-rich states. Hillary Clinton continues to pace Barack Obama’s averages from the 2012 presidential election. Of course the state by state averages can change so we’ll revisit this polling at the end of September and again just before the election at the end of October. Meanwhile, neither of the two mainline presidential candidates is talking about permanently reducing the size, scope and power of governments, federal, state or local. In Minneapolis and Saint Paul we have had yet another example of government overreach in the form of an unelected body of Dark Lords known as the Met Council. After the Minnesota House decided not to fund the controversial South West Light Rail Project, which Minneapolis’ richest and most liberal precincts fiercely oppose, the Met Council decided to issue their own bonds to the tune of more than a hundred million dollars, and ask metro counties under its control to issue tens of millions in debt as well, all to end run the legislature and green light the project. Much has been made of the republican’s distaste for the council, but when they had a chance to drive a stake through its heart earlier this year, the legislature rearranged some of the terms of the councilmen and women, and some of the funding. A local mayor found a way to kill the Met Council last summer by empowering local municipalities to say no to them. Yep, local towns and cities – by state law – cannot say no to the Met Council. This law can be changed by the legislature. Why haven’t they done it? This is just one example of government overreach. In this Labor Day weekend’s radio show the dangers and costs of too much and too powerful government; something neither of the mainline candidates and their parties are going to do anything about. One wants to hand out free education and health care, and the other wants to spend billions to build a wall. Both will increase the size, scope, cost and power of the federal and state governments. This is a discussion we aren’t having now because we’re too busy arguing about whether one of the candidates should go to jail and whether the other one is a fascist. Meanwhile the advocacy media just keeps on covering politics like sports, and people keep watching and listening, all the while complaining about it. This podcast closes with something fun, a throw back podcast to the Minnesota State Fair from the early 80’s; an audio montage done then, just for fun. It’s amazing how much the fair and the people have changed. Sponsored by Brush Studio in the West End and Hydrus Performance.