Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756

As I do the last two podcasts in the toss up series at the Bob Davis Podcasts, more predictions of a democrat wave are most notable. Are these predictions true? We’ll find out in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756.

Shellacking

In addition to commentators AP reported this week that republican pollsters are telling top republicans they’re in for a shellacking in November.

As a mission of the Bob Davis Podcasts I have been looking at those elections deemed ‘toss ups’ by the experts.

Conventional Wisdom Is Right Until Wrong

Especially relevant is the idea behind the mission. No predictions. Non partisan. What is the situation in these key districts in the final weeks of the election. Readers, subscribers and listeners might be surprised to learn very few public polls exist. Conventional wisdom drives most of these predictions. I detail this for each toss up in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756.

Close Elections Don’t Always Mean Flips

From North Carolina to Texas in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756. Toss up races are simply close elections for whatever reason. Moreover most US House elections are in solid democrat or republican districts. This year some say there are more than 40 districts that will be close. Why they’re close is key.

Open Seats And Changing Geography

In some cases the district is an open seat because of retirements. In other cases, the contours of the district’s geography have changed. What was once a solid republican or democrat district is now supposedly more ‘balanced’.

Everyone Hates Congress…

Finally the real question in the 2018 midterms is whether people will vote their opinions of the president or local concerns. The old saying goes, everyone hates congress but not their congressman.

One Size Fits All Election?

In conclusion I spent a fair amount of time not only looking through the data for these districts but also watching some of the internet and TV ads for candidates. Sometimes it’s hard to tell the republican from the democrat. This is not a one size fits all election even though the media would have its viewers believe it is.

Once I finish this series in this podcast, and the next, I’ll do one more podcast with my analysis since there isn’t much time for that in these podcasts dealing with individual districts.

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Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756

 

2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752

Most people these days don’t dial into elections until after Labor Day. I’m doing a series of podcasts to get you updated on all the so called ‘toss up’ races. Learn more about the Governor’s races in 2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752.

Old Saws Predict Races?

Moreover pundits and statisticians are hell bent for leather to tell you who’s going to win every race. Most noteworthy are the ‘old saws’ of politics. Predictions based on truisms and sayings.

You’re Right Until You’re Wrong

Maybe these old ways of predicting outcomes combined with new data are right. My experience is, they’re right until they’re wrong. I’ll explain in 2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752.

Let The People Decide

Also I believe people should be able to make decisions about who they think is going to win, and who to vote for, without being told who’s going to win three months before election day. Wouldn’t you like to hear some information about this elections without someone telling you who’s going to win? That’s what I do in 2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752.

Local Or National?

For example we’re told that national issues are driving all the races in the 2018 Midterm Elections. Is this true? Or is it possible local issues may be central? In some states taxes and budgets. In others, mining vs environment and business versus agriculture.

States Are Bigger Than You Think

One thing I’ve learned traveling back and forth across this country on two lane roads is the individual states of these United States are very diverse and a lot larger than they look on a map. How does this fact impact the race? Find out in 2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752.

Too Close To Call? Check Again

Finally how many of these races are actually ‘toss ups’. How many contests between gubernatorial candidates really are too close to call? You might be surprised at the answer.

Red or Blue May Not Be

In conclusion the experts say the number of states under partisan party control is important. States are either ‘blue’ or ‘red’. Are all republicans and democrats created equal? Or is the truth somewhere in the middle?

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2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752

2018 Senate Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 751

These days political coverage turns elections into sporting events. My mission is to provide political coverage without making predictions. Let’s start with the Senate in 2018 Senate Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 751.

November 6th 2018

First of all throughout this podcast I refer to election day as November 7th 2018. In fact it’s November 6th, 2018. Until election day, many of the questions people have about outcomes will remain unanswered. I’ll tell you why.

Statewide Races

Furthermore commentators love to make national predictions. It’s important to remember these are individual state elections. Despite efforts by the media to make you think these are national elections, they aren’t. They’re local elections. Find out more in 2018 Senate Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 751.

The Stakes Are High

Especially relevant are the stakes. The future of Donald Trump’s presidency is in the balance with these Midterm Elections regardless of the local and national issues driving them.  Much of the coverage of the 2018 midterm elections hinges on this truth.

Key Races

What it comes down to are about 6 or 7 key races in various states around the country. As we get closer to election day (November 6th 2018, by the way) the line up of so called toss up races might change.

Holding The Majority

Republicans currently hold 50 seats in the US Senate with one vacant seat. Democrats hold 48. 2 Independents caucus with democrats giving them 49 votes potentially. With Vice President Mike Pence, the republicans can count on a 51 seat majority.

Arizona’s governor will appoint a replacement for the late John McCain, giving the republicans a potential 52 vote majority.

Will republicans hold that majority?

Making Useless Predictions

Finally I am so tired of hearing these know it alls making predictions based on primary vote results and conventional wisdom. As you’ll hear in 2018 Senate Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 751 polling is pretty thin in some key races. It’s about time someone covered the story without telling you who’s going to win.

Trump’s Twitter Feed

In conclusion we’ll cover about 7 senate races worth talking about. Will the president’s twitter feed and rally machine help republicans or hurt them?

As far as predictions, I remember a sports writer’s response when I asked him which team was going to win the big game Sunday. He said “That’s why we play the game!”

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2018 Senate Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 751

 

Pawlenty Loss Goes National-Tealeaves-Baseless Predictions 2018-Bob Davis Podcast-747

Welcome back to the world of empty predictions from a primary election. These days it seems like the prognosticators can’t resist telling voters what’s going to happen before they vote. Find out why I say this in Pawlenty Loss Goes National-Tealeaves-Baseless Predictions 2018-Bob Davis Podcast-747.

Shining Tim Pawlenty Steps In To Save The Day

Former two-term Governor Tim Pawlenty had it all. A statewide image. National lobbying experience. The backing of the rich guys too. Pawlenty raised 2.3 million dollars, more than all the other candidates.

Goliath Tim Pawlenty Knocked Down By David Jeff Johnson

Pawlenty still lost the primary to the endorsed MNGOP candidate, Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson. Since DFL Candidate Walz’s is linked in this blog, go here for Jeff Johnson’s official site.

Conventional Wisdom Is Right Until It Isn’t

The national media seized on Pawlenty’s strategic criticism of President Trump as the reason for his loss. Moreover they say this means republican candidates going against Trump will lose. Conventional wisdom says everyone hates Trump. Thus Trumpers may win primaries but lose the general election. Conventional Wisdom is usually right, until it isn’t. Hear it all in Pawlenty Loss Goes National-Tealeaves-Baseless Predictions 2018-Bob Davis Podcast-747.

I have a different view.

Man-Spread Pawlenty and His Rich Guy Political Bullies

I think it’s especially relevant that Pawlenty took a condescending and disrespectful tone in debates with Johnson. He said Johnson will be a three-time loser. “Man Spread” Pawlenty talked tough. He could be governor again if he wanted it. He could win, he said.

Dance with the one who brung ye

Minnesotans don’t like candidates who talk down to voters and their opponents. Especially when it isn’t necessary. Moreover times have changed. Nobody wants yesterday’s governor. Regardless of what happens in the general election, voters don’t appreciate candidates that disrespect the head of their parties.

So Much For The Grassroots On The DFL Side

In contrast DFL endorsed candidate Erin Murphy was defeated by retiring 1st district congressman Tim Walz. So much for the grassroots on the democrat side in Minnesota. Finally Democrat votes outnumbered republican votes in their primary by almost two to one. Consequently all kinds of breathless predictions have been issued about what will happen in November.

Why don’t we wait and see?

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Pawlenty Loss Goes National-Tealeaves-Baseless Predictions 2018-Bob Davis Podcast-747

Trump-Cognitive-Dissonance-Chaos-On-Border-Pure-Genius-Podcast-733

Time to talk about the elephant in the room. These days Trump gets better and better at causing a hurricane then standing in the eye of the storm. Find out why in Trump-Cognitive-Dissonance-Chaos-On-Border-Pure-Genius-Podcast-733.

Children Detained Since 2014

First of all everyone now knows some details about the children of illegal immigrants being detained at the border. Pictures of children in cells from the Obama era have been around since 2014. At the root of these detainments is something called ‘Flores‘.

Trump Promises Trump Delivers

President trump made two promises specific to Immigration during his 2016 campaign. Trump said he wanted to build a wall on the southern border and that he would enforce immigration laws if he became president.

Media Firestorm

Due to enforcement efforts and the courts, there’s a new batch of kids on the border. Welcome to the latest media firestorm.

Plenty of Blame To Go Around

While there are two sides to every story there’s plenty of blame to go around on this one. Find out why in Trump-Cognitive-Dissonance-Chaos-On-Border-Pure-Genius-Podcast-733.

A Public Relations Nightmare? Not So Fast

Democrats and Republicans agree on one thing. This is a travesty and a public relations nightmare for the US. Is it the same for the president?

Finally Trump retreated and used his favorite means of ‘legislation’. He issued an executive order, to keep detained families together.

Another Trump Stunt

Especially relevant here are officials within the Trump administration who have argued for years this kind of stunt is just what the doctor ordered to get congress to act.

Immigration Law And Texas History

In Trump-Cognitive-Dissonance-Chaos-On-Border-Pure-Genius-Podcast-733 some history of immigration law and the southern US Border in Texas. In addition some details on the ‘Flores Decision’ which is central to this issue.

How Would We Solve This?

More important, what do we think of this issue as citizens? How would we solve this problem? Most noteworthy is the fact that Americans do not agree on this issue. At all.

Cognitive Dissonance

Finally, these kinds of stunts on both sides of the so called political divide don’t solve anything. This is what Trump wants. When you add emotion to the mix no matter what new information comes to light, people only fight harder for their original position.

Midterm Elections

Republican voters don’t care about their local candidates in the midterm elections. They care about Donald Trump. My sense is the president figures whatever it takes to get the so called republican core off their asses and to the polls is good enough. Besides, we’ll all forget about kids in jails after the next stunt, coming to a television near you soon.

Trump In The Eye Of A Storm He Created

In the final analysis, this kind of thing works politically, until it doesn’t. Trump can stand in the eye of the storm. He can be proud of not knowing all the details, until one of these days he causes a real crisis.

Until then. Enjoy the party.

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Trump-Cognitive-Dissonance-Chaos-On-Border-Pure-Genius-Podcast-733

 

 

 

 

2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 1-Podcast 716

Will republicans maintain control of the US House Of Representatives in 2018’s Mid Term election? Or are those predicting a Democratic Wave right? Find out in 2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 1-Podcast 716. For part one click here.

Media Creates Confusion

These days the media is obsessed with predicting the future. Moreover they’re so busy telling the future viewers are left confused about where the close races are and why they are considered close.

West Coast To The Mississippi

In two epic political podcasts, I lay out the battle ground for the most vulnerable house races in 2018. Part 1 covers the west coast to the Mississippi. Part 2 (Podcast 717) covers districts east of the Mississippi to the Atlantic. Political Junkies these two are for you. If you want the same thing on the US Senate Toss Up Races, check out Podcast 712.

Skipping The Story Line

In 2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 1-Podcast 716 it is most noteworthy that I don’t buy into a story line. On one side it’s a blue wave. On the other all is well. It is far from clear what the result of this election will be. That doesn’t stop the shills bought and paid for from telling you what’s going to happen before you’ve even had a chance to consider it.

Primaries Play A Role

Election Day is Tuesday November 6th, 2018. Many districts have primaries in May, June and August. The results of these primaries will determine the tactical situation in key districts. A sober look at these races goes a long way to clarifying the situation for listeners and viewers.

An Ocean Of Time

Moreover, there’s an ocean of time between May 2018 and Election Day. Will local or national and international events have the most impact in the tight races? How many seats are republicans defending? What about local personalities? Most of the time, all the information isn’t in one place where it can serve as a baseline for future discussions.

No One Can Consistently Predict Elections

Bottom line? No one can predict elections. We learned that in 2016. What’s more, House elections are even more difficult to predict. 435 members up for election. The Democrats have 193 seats, the republicans 237. Both parties 200 or so seats solidly democrat or republican. That leaves about 30 races which can be considered toss ups. This is where we focus.

Devil’s In The Details

As the old saying goes, the Devil’s In The Details. Did Trump beat Clinton in your district? How did your congressman do? What are the local issues? If it’s an open seat is your district Republican, Democrat or somewhere in between? From California’s 10th to New Hampshire’s 1st, From Oregon to Georgia.

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2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 1-Podcast 716

 

 

 

Travel Stories-Regional Differences Across America-2018 Primer-Podcast 703

These days the we see the US from a bird’s eye view. Americans eat the same kind of food. Listen to the same kind of music. Dress the same. Look the same. Right? Not really. Find out why in Travel Stories-Regional Differences Across America-2018 Primer-Podcast 703.

Media Says We’re One People

One people, one culture. That’s what they say on TV. Furthermore, news ratings depend on selling the myth that we’re all the same. We’re supposed to be nine or eleven ‘nations’ of North America. Or as ‘The Fourth Turning’ says, behavior can be predicted by our generation, or where we are from.

Except that isn’t true. Never has been.

Travel Teaches How Real Differences Work

I’ve been up and down both coasts. Crisscrossed the midwest. Toured the west from the Mile High City to Las Cruces. I’ve been up and down Skyline Drive and the birthplace of country music in Bristol. I can tell you from experience there are some real differences in Americans. It’s what makes this country great. In Travel Stories-Regional Differences Across America-2018 Primer-Podcast 703.

Big Assed States

First of all, these fifty states are geographically imposing. Even the so called ‘little’ states in New England are big. Each of them have regional differences that can play out politically in some significant ways.

Different Places Different People

Moreover the personality of these states depends on the settlers. When did they come? Who were they? Why did they come? Where did they come from. What ideas and culture did they bring with them?

Regional Differences

One of the things I hear a lot these days is, “Why can’t they get it done?”. Or, why is a state so ‘liberal’ or ‘conservative’. Look closer and you might be surprised. Whatever ‘IT’ is. Part of the reason are the regional differences that might surprise you. Find out about them in Travel Stories-Regional Differences Across America-2018 Primer-Podcast 703.

Northern Minnesota Democrats who support 2nd Amendment rights. Conservative residents of Mountain West states like Colorado that supported legalizing marijuana. West Virginia republicans who want trade protection and aid for coal mines.

These differences are especially relevant when it comes to congressional districts.

All Politics Really Is Local

In conclusion, 2018 is an election year. All of congress. One third of the senate. State Legislatures and Governors. Judges and special elections. The pundits, the media, and the parties will try to make it about national issues. More often though, when it comes to so called off-year cycles, all politics is local.

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Travel Stories-Regional Differences Across America-2018 Primer-Podcast 703

Tragedy Coverage Social Taboo-Talk About Death-Podcast 668

Shootings. Hurricanes. Earthquakes. Floods. Lots of talk about what happened. Not much talk about the actual experience of death. That’s because Death isn’t easy to talk about. I do in Tragedy Coverage Social Taboo-Talk About Death-Podcast 668.

Overwhelming Tragedy Coverage

Check your social media feed. Turn on TV. Listen to the radio. There’s an avalanche of talk about the events surrounding a tragedy. What happened? How did this happen? Can it be prevented from happening again? From comedians to news reporters, it’s mostly people trying to remain relevant.

Nobody Talks About Death

In all of the coverage no one wants to talk about the experience of death. Death as a concept. The reality of death. Fact is, we live with death and we have an experience called death. However, we don’t ever talk about it. Death as a subject is not okay. In Tragedy Coverage Social Taboo-Talk About Death-Podcast 668.

What Is Death?

Death is the total and permanent cessation of the vital functions of an organism. We don’t really want to talk about that so we find other things to talk about. How do we deal with the shock of the unexpected, unexplainable and irreversible?

We Don’t Know How It Feels

Why do we grieve the death of the famous and barely pay a second thought to the deaths of hundreds in an earthquake in some other land? How is that different from how we react when someone really close to us dies? Talk about it in Tragedy Coverage Social Taboo-Talk About Death-Podcast 668,

Sharing My Experiences Of Death

In this podcast I share my own experiences. How I reacted to recent deaths of people very close to me. People who died unexpectedly.  This is in the hope that subscribers and listeners might think about and share their own stories and their own experiences with death. This is not easy to do. Talk about this is not a judgement.

We’re All Gonna Get There

Sooner or later we’re all going to have the death experience. Seems like everyone has different ideas about what actually happens. Death remains the great mystery for all of us. When you talk about death you have to talk about life. Do we regard life with the same wonder? Is life the same amazing mystery to us? Why not?

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Tragedy Coverage Social Taboo-Talk About Death-Podcast 668

 

 

Trump’s Trojan Horse Democrat Embrace Confuses GOP-Podcast 662

A republican president who campaigned against profligate spending has made a deal with democrats in order to spend more. President Trump wants billions for disaster relief in the wake of two hurricanes. In Trump’s Trojan Horse Democrat Embrace Confuses GOP-Podcast 662.

Drowning In The Swamp

The Man who was going to drain the swamp has joined the swamp rats. Conventional rank and file republicans are at a loss to explain. Trump’s a political genius who knows how to work it, is one explanation. Trump’s a Trojan Horse. A closet democrat. He tricked us from the beginning, is another explanation.

What is a Republican?

Truth is Republicans do not know what they are about. What are republicans for? What are they against? The so called conservative movement lost its way a long time ago. Trump is a symptom rather than a transformational leader. In Trump’s Trojan Horse Democrat Embrace Confuses GOP-Podcast 662.

Red Tie Socialism

The President’s budget calls for spending increases. The US is sending more troops to Afghanistan. Elements of the Tax Reform bill actually cap mortgage tex deductions, eliminate corporate tax deductions, seek to tax 401K and other tax deferred savings accounts. It all adds up to tax increases, not tax cuts. Moreover a republican president and congress that campaigned on repealing The Affordable Care Act, did not repeal it.

Permanent Slumber

When will republicans wake up to the fact that the Grand Old Party, the Party of Reagan, is just as interested in taxing and spending as their nemesis, the democratic party? Where is the great conservative movement we keep hearing about? Where are the people to do the hard political work of building a movement? They don’t exist. They deserve a wolf in sheep’s clothing and now they have it. In Trump’s Trojan Horse Democrat Embrace Confuses GOP-Podcast 662. (Editor’s Note: In listening to this podcast I just noticed I refer to the HBO Hit Series ‘WestWorld‘ as ‘West-WOOD’, which of course is the same of a radio network. Old habits die hard.)

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Trump’s Trojan Horse Democrat Embrace Confuses GOP-Podcast 662

 

Harvey Irma North Korea-DACA-Back In A News Rich Environment-Podcast 661

Back to the grindstone in Harvey Irma North Korea-DACA-Back In A News Rich Environment-Podcast 661. As Texas struggles with the aftermath of one major storm, another is on the way. North Korea’s Hydrogen Bomb and a full congressional schedule means we’re suddenly we’re back in a news rich environment.

President Trump Is Santa Claus

Especially relevant is the question of whether the US Federal Government is actually Santa Claus. Make your list, check it twice. While Republicans talk about individual responsibility when it comes to disaster, concerns about debt and overspending go out the window. Another hurricane, another opportunity for presidents to wear the jacket and the hat and show up to help. It’s all about public relations. We’ll talk about it in Harvey Irma North Korea-DACA-Back In A News Rich Environment-Podcast 661.

Hug Some Babies Phase Out DACA

President Trump made the obligatory trip to the hurricane zone over the weekend, then signed an order to phase out DACA at the beginning of the week. A campaign promise fulfilled, or kicking a problem to congress? Is it wrong to suggest a complete immigration reform package passed before phasing out the program with an executive order might be a better path?

It’s a Business, right?

We expect presidents to rule through fiat. “Run It Like A Business!” Problem is Santa Claus can’t do much with executive orders. Real reform requires congressional action. Getting that done requires real political acumen of the president. Businesses can’t print money to pay off their debt. In Harvey Irma North Korea-DACA-Back In A News Rich Environment-Podcast 661.

Tax Reform Means Raising Taxes

Tax Reform now looms as the next legislative failure for a GOP majority. ‘Cutting Taxes’ might mean raising taxes in places people who voted Republican might not expect. Requiring ‘revenue neutral‘ proposals means ‘tax cuts’ rather than spending cuts. With debt over 100 percent of the GDP maybe Santa Claus should stay home. Not a chance. Find out why I say this in Harvey Irma North Korea-DACA-Back In A News Rich Environment-Podcast 661.

Bombs Away

Then there’s North Korea. They’ve got a bomb and a missile. Trump has a saber to rattle. Maybe it will work. Then again maybe the Doom Merchants on You Tube are right about September 23rd, 2017.

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Harvey Irma North Korea-DACA-Back In A News Rich Environment-Podcast 661