Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756

As I do the last two podcasts in the toss up series at the Bob Davis Podcasts, more predictions of a democrat wave are most notable. Are these predictions true? We’ll find out in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756.

Shellacking

In addition to commentators AP reported this week that republican pollsters are telling top republicans they’re in for a shellacking in November.

As a mission of the Bob Davis Podcasts I have been looking at those elections deemed ‘toss ups’ by the experts.

Conventional Wisdom Is Right Until Wrong

Especially relevant is the idea behind the mission. No predictions. Non partisan. What is the situation in these key districts in the final weeks of the election. Readers, subscribers and listeners might be surprised to learn very few public polls exist. Conventional wisdom drives most of these predictions. I detail this for each toss up in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756.

Close Elections Don’t Always Mean Flips

From North Carolina to Texas in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756. Toss up races are simply close elections for whatever reason. Moreover most US House elections are in solid democrat or republican districts. This year some say there are more than 40 districts that will be close. Why they’re close is key.

Open Seats And Changing Geography

In some cases the district is an open seat because of retirements. In other cases, the contours of the district’s geography have changed. What was once a solid republican or democrat district is now supposedly more ‘balanced’.

Everyone Hates Congress…

Finally the real question in the 2018 midterms is whether people will vote their opinions of the president or local concerns. The old saying goes, everyone hates congress but not their congressman.

One Size Fits All Election?

In conclusion I spent a fair amount of time not only looking through the data for these districts but also watching some of the internet and TV ads for candidates. Sometimes it’s hard to tell the republican from the democrat. This is not a one size fits all election even though the media would have its viewers believe it is.

Once I finish this series in this podcast, and the next, I’ll do one more podcast with my analysis since there isn’t much time for that in these podcasts dealing with individual districts.

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Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756

 

Kicked Out-‘Pan O Prog’ Parade-Teaching Podcasting-Bob Davis Podcast 740

Summer in Minnesota means small town parades. For Mobile Podcast Command this summer also means getting kicked out of a parade. Find out how and why in Kicked Out-‘Pan O Prog’ Parade-Teaching Podcasting-Bob Davis Podcast 740.

A Minnesota Classic

The Bob Davis Podcasts has been part of a classic Minnesota small town parade for years. This year the Pan-o-Prog parade added itself to the prestigious list of places and events this podcaster has been kicked out of. That experience is the most noteworthy part of this podcast.

Podcasters Get No Respect

Above all in a free wheeling and fun podcast with one of my best friends, I’ll give you the low down.

Moreover I never sweat it. We podcasters get no respect. Not like traditional broadcast vehicles. Even more that’s part of the charm of podcasting. Check out Kicked Out-‘Pan O Prog’ Parade-Teaching Podcasting-Bob Davis Podcast 740.

Podcasting Is Growing Up

I am joined by an old friend on this podcast.

‘Jack’ is an instructor at a swanky eastern university. He teaches broadcasting. Because so many more people are listening to podcasts these days, I wonder why he still teaches young adults radio.

Rather than take the bait, Jack tells us about teaching his kids broadcasting and podcasting. Above all broadcasters in general have taken a sudden and intense interest in podcasting.

Furthermore when an industry on the ropes like broadcast starts taking a serious look at a disruptor there’s only one conclusion. We’re growing up, podcasters.

Summer Is Good For Seeing Old Friends And Doing Podcasts With Them

Finally Summer! Staying up late. Lighting the Tiki Torches. Sitting on the deck. Getting kicked out of a parade!

When the weather is this good, nothing bad can touch you.

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Kicked Out-‘Pan O Prog’ Parade-Teaching Podcasting-Bob Davis Podcast 740

 

 

 

 

 

Grassroots Tries Again-MNGOP Convention 2018-Duluth-Coverage-Perspective-Podcast 728

These days there’s lots of talk about the ‘Grassroots‘. Most of all, when republicans and democrats hold their conventions on the same weekend. Live coverage from the MNGOP confab in Duluth in Grassroots Tries Again-MNGOP Convention 2018-Duluth-Coverage-Perspective-Podcast 728.

Grassroots On The Line

Furthermore the grassroots are on the line in both parties. There was so much concern about making sure the MNGOP convention ended with an endorsement that leaders pulled strings to make sure Jeff Johnson got a full throated endorsement. Delegates were never told the results of the third ballot. In Rochester, Clinton Democrats battled Our Revolution activists to the bitter end. Both parties claim to be united.

Primary Challenge

Especially relevant is former Republican Governor Tim Pawlenty’s looming primary challenge. Four statewide races and a primary are tall organizational and monetary challenges. Probably have to cash and boots on the ground for that kind of challenge. I think the main question to emerge from this convention is whether the republican grassroots is ready to run and volunteer in these tough statewide races. Go inside the convention in Grassroots Tries Again-MNGOP Convention 2018-Duluth-Coverage-Perspective-Podcast 728.

Activists Just Wanted To Go Home

For all the spit and vinegar among activists, no one wanted ballot after ballot of voting to endorse a gubernatorial candidate. The solution was for two other candidates to drop out. Therefore Phillip Parrish and Mary Giuliani Stephens obliged. Republican ‘activists’ seemed thankful to nominate Jeff Johnson by acclamation. Two minutes later, as delegates headed for the doors, debate on resolutions was tabled. In Grassroots Tries Again-MNGOP Convention 2018-Duluth-Coverage-Perspective-Podcast 728.

Jesus and Trump

Most noteworthy at this convention were the speeches. Candidates and speakers pounded religious and pro Trump themes again and again. As a result there weren’t many details on the economy, budgeting or foreign policy. Hence lots of empty vows to ‘change things’. Not much meat on those bones. I guess that’s politics.

Grassroots Swan Song?

In conclusion leadership was most concerned about ending the convention without an endorsement for governor. Consequently leaders allowed the grassroots to save face. This is why challengers dropped out and the the endorsement vote was by acclamation. Once delegates had chosen a candidate for governor they didn’t feel like hanging around and debating resolutions. So much for the passion of the republican grassroots.

Both mainline parties want to do away with caucuses and move to a primary system. Activism requires action, not just passion.

In the end a vote for Jeff Johnson was the quickest way home.

So much for passion.

(Editor’s Note: I refer to Phillip Parrish as ‘Andy Parrish’ in this podcast. My sincere apologies to Phillip and his campaign.)

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Grassroots Tries Again-MNGOP Convention 2018-Duluth-Coverage-Perspective-Podcast 728

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Minnesota Road Trip-Progressives-History-Politics-Duluth 2018-Podcast 727

These days one of the things you learn on a road trip is how big the United States is. Then, how big individual states are. Finally the traveler discovers how each state is different. In Minnesota Road Trip-Progressives-History-Politics-Duluth 2018-Podcast 727.

Get Off The Interstate

Most noteworthy is what happens when you get off the Interstate and onto the back roads. That’s when you really see how it is.

Covering Politics In 2018

2018 is an election year. I said I would cover the Minnesota political scene this year. The first stop is the Minnesota State Republican Convention. Duluth. On the shores of Lake Superior.

Minnesota History

Furthermore some of the state’s old hands don’t know Minnesota’s unique social and political history. We’ll discover it together in Minnesota Road Trip-Progressives-History-Politics-Duluth 2018-Podcast 727.

Town Hall Is In Our Blood

Sure, we know our pioneer history. Especially relevant is the unique history of political grass roots and town hall style representation.

Minnesota’s first settlers were New Englanders and New Yorkers. They brought town halls with them. Later immigrants from Scandinavia, Germany and Ireland formed the bedrock of so called ‘progressive‘ politics in the state. Therefore, those ideas are still with us.

Yes Republicans Were Progressives and Populists Too

In addition while some people assume progressive politics these days is only the political left, republicans too have a long history of progressivism. Find out in Minnesota Road Trip-Progressives-History-Politics-Duluth 2018-Podcast 727.

Tim Pawlenty Tries To Derail Caucus Process

Will the grassroots system survive in Minnesota? Former republican Governor Tim Pawlenty isn’t attending because he’ll be clinking crystal with rich guys at the Minneapolis Club. Pawlenty’s operatives will push the convention to refuse to endorse a candidate for governor. This is the main issue in Duluth this weekend.

Do We Really Want To Dump The Town Hall?

Moreover populists and progressives go back to the roots of Minnesota Republicans and democrats. Probably a big part of that process has been town hall style politics in the caucus system. Most of all do we really want to get rid of it?

Surprises In This Podcast

In conclusion as I researched this podcast I learned a few surprising facts. I think you will too.

(EDITOR’S NOTE: Two things. First, it’s not 35W heading to Duluth, it’s just 35 North. Being a Twin Citiean, I have to get on 35W before 35 North. Second, for some reason I thought the State DFL convention – the democrats – was being held in Rochester, Minnesota the week after the Republican Convention in Duluth. Once again those sneaky democrats have managed to slip out of my grasp. It’s in the 40’s in Duluth and the 80’s in Rochester. Given the quality of the speeches in Duluth this weekend, I wish I had gone to Rochester!)

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Minnesota Road Trip-Progressives-History-Politics-Duluth 2018-Podcast 727

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Read Entire 1097 Page GOP Tax Bill-Part 1-Raw Reactions-Bob Davis Podcast 688

Both houses of congress have now passed the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Bill. After four hours and near blindness, I finished all one thousand plus pages. Every citizen should read this bill. In Read Entire 1097 Page GOP Tax Bill-Part 1-Raw Reactions-Bob Davis Podcast 688.

Big Little Reforms

Especially relevant is the public relations effort by republicans to convince voters this is a ‘sweeping’ reform of the US tax Code. In fact it is an amendment to a budget bill that further amends the 1987 Tax Reform Act.

Everyone Loves Or Hates

Moreover, if you read the bill, you should almost have a copy of the 1986 Tax Reform Act handy. Both sides of the so called political divide are touting how great this legislation is, or how it will end the world as we know it.  I’ll give you some details in Read Entire 1097 Page GOP Tax Bill-Part 1-Raw Reactions-Bob Davis Podcast 688.

Please Hold For Your Tax Attorney

Truth is if you are in business you’re still going to need an accountant and tax attorney advise you. Some businesses will see their taxes increase. Some individuals will see their taxes increase. Sure, the standard deduction has been doubled and tax rates reduced…but…

It Might Be Good…Then Again

There will be fewer deductions and thus fewer ways to legally reduce exposure to taxation. Depending on your specific situation you might see an increase or decrease in your overall tax. I explain some of this in Read Entire 1097 Page GOP Tax Bill-Part 1-Raw Reactions-Bob Davis Podcast 688. In addition, listen to my tax reform podcast to understand the political game going on under the guise of fixing the tax code.

Never Underestimate The Power of Free Beer

There are scores of pages concerning craft beer, wine and spirits. Guess all those receptions with free hootch for members must have worked! Finally there are lots and lots of new rules regarding businesses of all kinds.

Beware of Congressmen Bearing Cool Sounding Jargon

When congressmen and senators go out among the people and talk about all they have accomplished, you’re going to hear the words ‘pass-through’ and ‘average american will save’ such and such a lot. What does it all mean? Find out in Read Entire 1097 Page GOP Tax Bill-Part 1-Raw Reactions-Bob Davis Podcast 688.

More Government Control

In conclusion my final reaction is the sadness I feel that our federal government controls so much of what we do as citizens through the mechanism of taxation. Republicans who campaigned on a tax cut have certainly paid off on that promise, at least until 2025, but at what price. That is the 1.2 trillion dollar question. President Trump signed the bill into law Friday afternoon.

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Read Entire 1097 Page GOP Tax Bill-Part 1-Raw Reactions-Bob Davis Podcast 688

Will 1968 Unrest Shockwaves Echo In 2018-Podcast 670

Every now and then it’s necessary to break it down. Why does a long time political observer and analyst find it more difficult to talk about politics these days? In Will 1968 Unrest Shockwaves Echo In 2018-Podcast 670.

Rhetorical Partisans

Some say the US hasn’t been this politically divided since 1968. At least in 1968 we were fighting about specific issues. It seems to me we’re fighting over a person in the present time frame.

Demanding Loyalty

Attack Trump. Defend Trump. At any cost. Ideas and principles aren’t important. Commentators are running for office, under the employ of some partisan organization, or supporting a person or point of view. Will 1968 Unrest Shockwaves Echo In 2018-Podcast 670.

Garbage In Garbage Out

Social media, the Internet and so called news sites spew a constant stream of invective, misinformation and outright lies. They are so busy predicting the future they put Tarot Card Readers and Astrologists to shame.

Read It and Weep

Denying our freedom to choose what we think about an issue based on facts, in the quest to demand loyalty is the height of folly. In Will 1968 Unrest Shockwaves Echo In 2018-Podcast 670. We end up shouting at each other; partisan mobs, not an informed electorate.

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Will 1968 Unrest Shockwaves Echo In 2018-Podcast 670

 

Podcast 596-Our Values

Journalism’s new norm is reaction. It is called News. In Podcast 596-Values, news coverage today is a reaction to something someone said or wrote. News is reaction to a new initiative by some government entity. Donald Trump hasn’t been president for a month yet. Already it seems like a year. Trump’s pace of executive orders, executive actions, tweets and initiatives allows him to dominate the media battle space while he cooks up another controversy stew to cauterize yesterday’s controversy.

In Podcast 596-Values, where is the media battle ground? It’s not the Internet. It’s some some battlefield in Europe or Virginia where armies clashed. It’s not a battlefield with stories of élan, bravery or great deeds. The media battle space is our brain. This battlefield is as small or as expansive as it needs to be. As the media storm rages and the wind blows, how do we know our tent is securely fastened and isn’t going to blow away? It call comes down to something called values.

In Podcast 596-Our Values, time to take a pause in this daily insanity of back and forth partisan media coverage. A break from ‘journalists’ who call two or three people, get some quotes, write it up and call it a day. Time to take a look at what we believe as individuals and as a people. Democrat, Republican, Populist, Populist Nationalist, Libertarian, Communist, Socialist, Moderate, Partisan, and Extreme alike. We’re all on a journey together in our lifetime on this planet.

What do we believe? What are the Values we hold dear? Where do those values come from? How do those values anchor us when the gales of change blow up even when those gales are generated from the hot air of politicians in Washington? Politicians who cry and grandstand secure in the knowledge the things they say and do won’t be investigated for any length of time or to any real conclusion?

Reporters determine our values by looking at the latest poll or driving to a shopping center and asking people in the parking lot a few questions. The result is a few hundred words taking the ‘temperature’ of regular everyday ‘folk’. Don’t have any supporters of the president in your state to talk to? Just drive across the state line to the first town and sit in the parking lot of a Safeway or Piggly Wiggly until mom and the kids show up, or chat up and write up what old uncle Frank thinks, while he sits in his 1997 Lincoln waiting for Aunt June. The headline? “Middle America Supports Trump”. Boom.

Work on a national TV show? Find that article about middle america. Get that pollster on the show. Find that Congressmen who says that crazy stuff. Get that woman on from that foundation. Say some stuff. Get some calls. Move on to the next ‘story’. Clicks. Listens. Comments. Calls. Ratings!

The battlefield is the mind. How do you avoid becoming a casualty in the partisan political war? It’s increasingly a battlefield filled with threats. More and more it’s a battlefield better characterized as a moonscape no man’s land, where the shell shocked wander, dazed and confused. Survival in this environment depends on what we believe. Why we believe it. Where we learned it. Who taught us. Where we get our information. How we check our information. What anchors us in the storm, or what kind of ground we have pounded our tent pegs into.

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Podcast 517-Bob Davis Podcasts Radio Show-32

Podcast 517-Bob Davis Podcasts Radio Show-32. With huge reaction in the financial markets, the media and in political circles raging over the British vote to exit the EU this week, it seems as though 2016 just kicked off in earnest. In fact, for me this week flew by. One of the week’s features was the visit of my son. Andrew Davis joined me on a radio show I did last week for the Northern Alliance, and then we came back to the ‘broadcast bunker’ to have some steak, father and son time, and record a podcast. Honestly, I would probably not have talked that much about the potential for the Brits to leave the EU and the impact on foreign trade, the markets and politics. Andrew Davis is an International Relations guy, with some experience in government (working on Capitol Hill for a couple of years). Our conversations about trade and the potential for a British Exit turned out to be prescient, given the surprise of a close vote in Britain on the EU question. My problem with the whole issue isn’t the vote so much as the coverage of this story by the media, and the coverage of trade issues in the United States. While trade as a whole is a complex issue that can’t be explained away with a soundbite or snarky comment, it is also a core issue in the 2016 election cycle. It is amusing and instructive that during the run up to the vote in Britain, republican candidate for the nomination Donald Trump said, as a private citizen that he could understand why the British would want to leave the EU, while President Obama condescended to lecture British on why they should stay and Hillary Clinton supported Obama. For its part the media characterized, and demonized a no vote as ‘xenophobic’, ‘populist’ and ‘nationalist’. My question is, what if the people have no words anymore to describe the frustration of living under a regime of regulation, taxation, laws that nudge (governenment-ese for encourage) certain behaviors and get in our business in so many other irritating ways? We’ve lived under a construct that government is the solution for so many years we don’t even have the words to oppose it anymore, but we do still have a vote…for the time being. Sponsored by X Government Cars and Hydrus.

 

Podcast 515-Andrew Davis

Podcast 515-Andrew Davis. At the close of Father’s Day Weekend, a father and son podcast. From our adventures this weekend in talk radio, to late Sunday night recovering a lost iPhone, Andrew and Bob Davis talk about issues to get you current for the week ahead, the first official week of summer. This weekend we filled in for friends on the radio, and talked about our personal feelings that the establishment republicans will take one last run at Donald Trump at the RNC later this summer. Between a tough week last week for the New York Developer, to high negatives in recent polls, as well as reports of a (have to put this in quotes) “RICO civil lawsuit” on the Trump University matter, to his rhetorical and often controversial method of speaking, Trump is giving republicans fits. This weekend we talked about at least five or six republican seats that are vulnerable in this election. Those long term, powerful senators are very concerned about Trump’s high negatives and the potential that they could lose if he proves to be a weak presidential candidate, particularly in their states. An announcement this week that there’s an effort in effect to change the rules to allow delegates to ‘vote their conscience’, might gather steam if Trump continues have problems. This is why using terms like ‘presumptive’ is a bad idea when it comes to either of the front-running republican or democrat candidates. (Editor’s note: The only party that has actually settled on a ticket so far is the Libertarian Party which chose Gary Johnson as its presidential candidate and William Weld as its vice presidential candidate.) One of the things Andrew Davis wanted to talk about was the British vote, for or against exiting the European Union. We then moved on to international trade and trade deals, and what international trade and ‘free trade’ means to the United States, as well as some friendly father and son debate about executive power in these trade deals, and the negative effects they sometimes generate in this father and son Podcast 515-Andrew Davis. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul and Karow Contracting.

Podcast 456

Bad Omen. A special primary election in Minnesota’s 35th Senate District results in 60 percent of the vote for RINO Jim Abeler over the Tea Party and Republican Party endorsed candidate Andy Aplicowski and may be a bad omen for the general election in 2016. The Iowa Precinct Caucuses are on February 1st. Minnesota’s caucuses are on March 1st. With the national media reporting on the Republican Party ‘Civil War’, and the impact of the Tea Party in that ‘civil war’ it looks like the Tea Party is all show, and no go. Tea Party groups can’t seem to get out the vote for ‘principled’ conservatives. Is this a bad omen? Is it possible voters don’t agree with the Tea Party message? Are the Tea Party groups lazy? Or, maybe Tea Party groups are just ignorant of what real political organizing requires. If this happens nationwide in 2016 then the so called ‘grassroots surge’ of ‘principled’ conservatives in the Republican Party, supported by Tea Party chapters all over the country, may be one of the biggest busts, and thus one of the biggest stories of 2016 bad omen, or not. Offering excuses doesn’t cut it. Win, or go home. Sure, the story line of the Tea Party as kingmaker serves the mainstream media’s interests now, but if the Tea Party can’t produce results what the media gives will be taken away, mercilessly. What’s wrong? This might be considered a harsh analysis for some, but when the Tea Party candidate loses by sixty percent of the vote, it’s a criticism that should be heard and a story that’s not being told. Is there something these groups can do to improve their performance? What happens if they keep failing to win? Sponsored by Hydrus, Pride of Home and Luke Team Real Estate.