Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756

Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756

As I do the last two podcasts in the toss up series at the Bob Davis Podcasts, more predictions of a democrat wave are most notable. Are these predictions true? We’ll find out in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756.

Shellacking

In addition to commentators AP reported this week that republican pollsters are telling top republicans they’re in for a shellacking in November.

As a mission of the Bob Davis Podcasts I have been looking at those elections deemed ‘toss ups’ by the experts.

Conventional Wisdom Is Right Until Wrong

Especially relevant is the idea behind the mission. No predictions. Non partisan. What is the situation in these key districts in the final weeks of the election. Readers, subscribers and listeners might be surprised to learn very few public polls exist. Conventional wisdom drives most of these predictions. I detail this for each toss up in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756.

Close Elections Don’t Always Mean Flips

From North Carolina to Texas in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756. Toss up races are simply close elections for whatever reason. Moreover most US House elections are in solid democrat or republican districts. This year some say there are more than 40 districts that will be close. Why they’re close is key.

Open Seats And Changing Geography

In some cases the district is an open seat because of retirements. In other cases, the contours of the district’s geography have changed. What was once a solid republican or democrat district is now supposedly more ‘balanced’.

Everyone Hates Congress…

Finally the real question in the 2018 midterms is whether people will vote their opinions of the president or local concerns. The old saying goes, everyone hates congress but not their congressman.

One Size Fits All Election?

In conclusion I spent a fair amount of time not only looking through the data for these districts but also watching some of the internet and TV ads for candidates. Sometimes it’s hard to tell the republican from the democrat. This is not a one size fits all election even though the media would have its viewers believe it is.

Once I finish this series in this podcast, and the next, I’ll do one more podcast with my analysis since there isn’t much time for that in these podcasts dealing with individual districts.

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Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756

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Toss Up House Elections 2018 Part 2-Bob Davis Podcast 754

Toss Up House Elections 2018 Part 2-Bob Davis Podcast 754

Second in a series of podcasts detailing the so called toss up races in the 2018 midterm elections. Most noteworthy here are my observations about whether many of these elections are actually toss ups. Find out why I say this in Toss Up House Elections 2018 Part 2-Bob Davis Podcast 754.

Trump’s Future Hangs In The Balance

From Iowa, to Illinois. Kansas to Kentucky in this podcast you’ll find out why the media says the future of Donald Trump’s administration hangs in the balance. You’ll also find out whether the predicted ‘blue wave’ could be reality. Or not.

Details Without Partisanship

As I have said many times, one of the things our media loves to do these days is predict the future, The reason I am producing this series of podcasts is to give you the existing conditions in each of these districts without partisan comment or predictions. This series includes the Senate toss ups, and the Governor’s toss ups and part one of the house toss ups.

How Close Are They?

How close is the race in Illinois’ northwestern suburbs that make up the 6th district? What about all the predictions about 12th district which stretches from the working class Saint Louis suburbs across the river, all the way to the southern tip of the Land of Lincoln? Especially relevant here are predictions about Kentucky’s 6th district, which the president won by 17 points. When a candidate for president wins a state by over twenty points, is there a potential for backlash? Learn more in Toss Up House Elections 2018 Part 2-Bob Davis Podcast 754.

Telling The Voter What’s Going To Happen Before The Vote

These days it doesn’t matter whether you’re on network television or You Tube. If you have a national talk radio show or are a podcaster. Everyone wants to tell the voter what’s going to happen before it happens. If you listen to this series of my podcasts you’ll know the situation in these districts. You’ll know what races to watch on election night.

What IS The Situation?

Once the voters decides for themselves who their voting for on election night, they can sit back and watch the results knowing what races to look for. Why? Because someone looked at all the key races and without partisanship or rancor laid out what the situation is.

Fortune Tellers

Finally, many of these districts have no polling unless its done by partisan groups or political parties. Predictions are being made based on the 2016 election or because one party or another said they were ‘targeting’ that race. In conclusion our politics are too fluid for political fortune tellers to be accurate.

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Toss Up House Elections 2018 Part 2-Bob Davis Podcast 754

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Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 1-Bob Davis Podcast 753

Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 1-Bob Davis Podcast 753

Every two years the entire US House of Representatives has to run for election. The predictions of the prognosticators concerning these elections are most noteworthy. The sages say as many as 58 republican seats are in jeopardy. We’ll find out in a series of podcasts that examine each of these house races in detail. Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 1-Bob Davis Podcast 753.

Predictions Are Dangerous

I hate predictions, Moreover I find while the media loves to ‘nationalize’ house and senate elections most of the time they turn on local issues not the national issues. One of the reasons predictions are often be wrong.

Especially relevant, so many of these races are considered toss ups.

Calibrating The Crystal Ball

There’s only way to determine whether men staring into crystal balls can predict the future. You have to examine each district one at a time.

In part one we look at several districts in California, Colorado, and Florida. More are on the way.

Travel Makes Great Political Analysis

I am happy to say I have been to many of these districts in Mobile Podcast Command. ‘Just passing through’ doesn’t give you some gift for the truth but it does help to visualize. Because I travel I have additional knowledge that is invaluable when it comes to understanding what’s going on in some of these elections.

Pivot Counties Are Well…Pivotal

Similarly it helps to have visited to some of the so called ‘Pivot Counties‘ and to have traveled through areas these guys on TV probably have not seen recently, if ever. It all adds up to the realization that all politics really is local.

New Political Environment?

Because I traveled in 2016 I was able to to realize early on something different was brewing. I think we’re still in a new political environment. All the more reason not to avoid the tarot card readers on TV. Listen to Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 1-Bob Davis Podcast 753 instead.

No Predictions Just Information And a Baseline For You

While I won’t predict anything in 2018 I think it is fair to say we’re in a new environment politically in which almost anything can happen. Moreover whatever is happening may not show up in polls and primary election data.

Isn’t that what makes watching the outcome so much fun?

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Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 1-Bob Davis Podcast 753

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