Truth About 2018 US Senate Predictions-Fairy Tales-Podcast 712

They are at it again. Pundits and talking heads are telling us who’s going to win the 2018 mid term elections. What is the truth about 2018? Find out in Truth About 2018 US Senate Predictions-Fairy Tales-Podcast 712.

Election Day Tuesday November 6th 2018

Tuesday, November 6th, 2018 is a big day. Up for election is the entire US House of Representatives and one third of the US Senate. Governors and state legislators are also up for election on this day.

It Comes Down To Key Races For Republicans and Democrats

This podcast focuses on the US Senate race in 2018. Specifically on several key races that may decide the majority. This is critical for President Trump’s agenda from 2019 and his reelection effort in 2020. Learn the basic contours of these races in Truth About 2018 US Senate Predictions-Fairy Tales-Podcast 712.

The Media IS Doing It Again

Problem is the media has already decided the outcome of this election. It will be democrat wave, they say. The reason? Big national issues favor the democrats. Gun Control. The Me Too movement. Immigration. Trade Protection. Is this true?

These days it seems like when the media says something is going to go one way, it often goes another. I will not tell you what’s going to happen. The Bob Davis Podcasts isn’t in the business of predicting the future, telling people what to think or who to vote for. As in 2016, I’ll try to stick to the facts we know about these races and let you decide what to think about them.

Battleground Senate Races

This podcast focuses on US Senate races in key states considered ‘battlegrounds’. Truth is, republicans are defending fewer vulnerable seats than democratic candidates. Whether than means the GOP will hold onto their majority in the US Senate is quite another question.

All Politics Is Local – Especially Statewide Senate Races

Moreover, Senate races may be effected by national issues, but they are statewide races. Personality and local issues are major factors in such elections. I spend a little time in this podcast outlining examples of regional and geographic political differences. Check it out in Truth About 2018 US Senate Predictions-Fairy Tales-Podcast 712.

Time for Truth about 2018 US Senate Predictions in Podcast 712

In conclusion, despite what the pundits and so called experts tell you, national issues that seem to benefit republicans or democrats, don’t always benefit candidates in tight races in their home states.

Sponsored by Reliafund Payment Processors and Ryan Plumbing and Heating Of Saint Paul

Truth About 2018 US Senate Predictions-Fairy Tales-Podcast 712

 

 

 

Travel Stories-Regional Differences Across America-2018 Primer-Podcast 703

These days the we see the US from a bird’s eye view. Americans eat the same kind of food. Listen to the same kind of music. Dress the same. Look the same. Right? Not really. Find out why in Travel Stories-Regional Differences Across America-2018 Primer-Podcast 703.

Media Says We’re One People

One people, one culture. That’s what they say on TV. Furthermore, news ratings depend on selling the myth that we’re all the same. We’re supposed to be nine or eleven ‘nations’ of North America. Or as ‘The Fourth Turning’ says, behavior can be predicted by our generation, or where we are from.

Except that isn’t true. Never has been.

Travel Teaches How Real Differences Work

I’ve been up and down both coasts. Crisscrossed the midwest. Toured the west from the Mile High City to Las Cruces. I’ve been up and down Skyline Drive and the birthplace of country music in Bristol. I can tell you from experience there are some real differences in Americans. It’s what makes this country great. In Travel Stories-Regional Differences Across America-2018 Primer-Podcast 703.

Big Assed States

First of all, these fifty states are geographically imposing. Even the so called ‘little’ states in New England are big. Each of them have regional differences that can play out politically in some significant ways.

Different Places Different People

Moreover the personality of these states depends on the settlers. When did they come? Who were they? Why did they come? Where did they come from. What ideas and culture did they bring with them?

Regional Differences

One of the things I hear a lot these days is, “Why can’t they get it done?”. Or, why is a state so ‘liberal’ or ‘conservative’. Look closer and you might be surprised. Whatever ‘IT’ is. Part of the reason are the regional differences that might surprise you. Find out about them in Travel Stories-Regional Differences Across America-2018 Primer-Podcast 703.

Northern Minnesota Democrats who support 2nd Amendment rights. Conservative residents of Mountain West states like Colorado that supported legalizing marijuana. West Virginia republicans who want trade protection and aid for coal mines.

These differences are especially relevant when it comes to congressional districts.

All Politics Really Is Local

In conclusion, 2018 is an election year. All of congress. One third of the senate. State Legislatures and Governors. Judges and special elections. The pundits, the media, and the parties will try to make it about national issues. More often though, when it comes to so called off-year cycles, all politics is local.

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating and Ciro3D motorcycle products and accessories

Travel Stories-Regional Differences Across America-2018 Primer-Podcast 703

Doug Jones Beats Roy Moore-Trump-Alabama-GOP Chaos-Podcast 685

Is the South suddenly turning blue? Democrats have handed the GOP a shocking defeat in the Alabama US Senate Race. Coverage in Doug Jones Beats Roy Moore-Trump-Alabama-GOP Chaos-Podcast 685.

A Stinging Defeat

What are the takeaways from this race? What about winners and losers? Where do the President and Republicans in the Senate go from here? Where does the President’s former chief strategist Steve Bannon go from here?

Comedy of Errors

This was a race that captured the whole country’s attention. First there was the botched appointment of Luther Strange to the Senate Seat held by Jeff Sessions by an embattled Governor. A controversial primary election followed. Especially relevant were salacious allegations of misconduct leveled against republican candidate Judge Roy Moore. We’ll talk about it in Doug Jones Beats Roy Moore-Trump-Alabama-GOP Chaos-Podcast 685.

Welcome To The Blue South?

This is the second state to elect a democrat in a state wide race this fall. With Virginia electing a democrat governor in November and now a Senator in Alabama in December republicans are suddenly concerned about a lot more than their majority in the US Senate. What about the 2018 races coming up?

The Tax Bill Suddenly Got More Expensive

Republicans have a thin majority in the Senate. With the democrats adding a seat and a few republicans soft on the President’s agenda, suddenly passing legislation like the Tax ‘Reform’ Bill, Confirmations and Treaty Votes will be a little more uphill. In 2018 you can be sure past histories of congressmen and senators and their relationships with women will be on the ballot. But there’s more.

Get That Old Religion

In Doug Jones Beats Roy Moore-Trump-Alabama-GOP Chaos-Podcast 685 we’ll talk about the failure of something called ‘Republican Populism‘ in Alabama. Truth is, many people have overlooked Roy Moore’s decidedly far right and ‘populist’ political ideas because of the allegations against him. While those allegations certainly had an effect, his politics couldn’t have helped.

Time For A Plan

Finally, do republicans have a plan for the future beyond, “We can’t let democrats win”. Is there a plan beyond barnstorming politicians who say whatever enters their mind and blame of the media? We’ll talk about it in Doug Jones Beats Roy Moore-Trump-Alabama-GOP Chaos-Podcast 685.

Trump Has To Take The Blame

The president, his former chief strategist and the republican party have suffered a stinging defeat. The idea was, go out and campaign for our guy because he is our guy and we can’t afford another ‘liberal’ democrat in the senate. Well, that is exactly what happened. President Trump has no one else to blame for this defeat, but himself.

(Editor’s Note: A late night meant I was a little fuzzy with my Senate numbers. With the GOP losing this seat they lose a vote in the Senate. Democrats gain one. So it’s GOP 51, DEM 49. Add two independents who caucus with democrats…and it’s 51 51. With a soft majority for the republicans – they don’t necessarily vote as a block – the future could be uphill for the President and Republicans.)

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

Doug Jones Beats Roy Moore-Trump-Alabama-GOP Chaos-Podcast 685

 

 

 

 

 

 

Summer Solstice Walk and Talk-Road Trip Takeaways-Podcast 642

After so many road trips I get a lot of questions. Why do you do it? What are the three best things that happened on the trip? In Summer Solstice Walk and Talk-Road Trip Takeaways-Podcast 642.

Long Road Trips Are The Best

Road Trips have been a part of my life since I was a kid. As an adult I would often drive pell mell to reach a location. Since acquiring Mobile Podcast Command I’ve spent more time on the road, taking my office and studio with me. Road Trips are an escape both positive and negative. For me, happiness is a clean windshield and a full tank of fuel.

Goals Are Good…And Bad

These days each trip has an objective or two. It‘s best though, not to fill your road trip with objectives even if you are a type A goal setter. You have to leave time to change your mind, turn around or stop in that town. In Summer Solstice Walk and Talk-Road Trip Takeaways-Podcast 642.

Is Life Real?

Travel is like a dream. Especially road tripping. The more you do it the less specific your memory is. I’ll be doing something and think about an experience and wonder, “Where was that?”. Don’t know. Doesn’t matter. The longer the road trip, the more surreal the experience. From Truck Stops and Wal Mart parking lots to State Parks and small towns. In Summer Solstice Walk and Talk-Road Trip Takeaways-Podcast 642.

Back Roads Are Better

This Bob Davis Podcasts Road Trip to me through Minnesota, Iowa, Kansas (twice), Missouri, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Tennessee, North Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois and Wisconsin. Pretty much all on backroads. The first takeaway is stick to state roads, and US highways, even county roads. In Summer Solstice Walk and Talk-Road Trip Takeaways-Podcast 642.

Ready To Go Again

Meeting interesting people, visiting prosperous and not so prosperous towns and villages, seeing family and taking a dream-walk through the town I grew up in are some of best things that happened on this road trip. In conclusion, most of this country is flat out empty, and it’s going to be just fine.

Sponsored by X Government Cars

Summer Solstice Walk and Talk-Road Trip Takeaways-Podcast 642

 

 

A Southern Ohio Mining Town Decays-Podcast 640

A Southern Ohio Mining Town Decays-Podcast 640 hits home, for me. Glouster Ohio is home to most of my family on my dad’s side. It’s been a long time since I visited. You hear a lot of talk these days about how towns like this are struggling. I’ve seen a lot of towns and cities on America’s back roads. Seems like this is one of the most challenged places I’ve been to.

King Coal

For over a hundred years it’s been all about coal mines in this part of the country. Back in the day, the idea was to get the coal out of the ground. Period. Companies didn’t care about the environment in those days and I would assume they didn’t care too much about their employees. This part of Ohio is the scene of mining disasters and pitched battles when the unions began organizing workers in the early twentieth century. My grandfather told me people carried guns in Glouster like the old west. My dad and uncle confirmed that story. In A Southern Ohio Mining Town Decays-Podcast 640.

Better Days

The Buckingham Coal Mine still exists a few miles from Glouster. There’s talk about opening a mine closer to town. I imagine there are still miners here. On the other hand, Glouster has been better days. I know there are people in town working to save it. As I walked the streets I wonder why this town decays while other small towns a few miles away seem to thrive. In conclusion, now I understand my Grandfather’s drive to get to a better place.

Sometimes Things Don’t Work Out

One thing you learn from travel is things don’t always work out. Glouster is already on a list of America’s most forlorn places. Especially relevant is the idea that this is the kind of town hit hardest by movement away from coal. Maybe that will change. In A Southern Ohio Mining Town Decays-Podcast 640. (Editor’s Note: In this podcast I refer to the location of a mining disaster as Mill City. It is, in fact, Millfield. A few miles away from Glouster. My apologies.)

Sponsored By Brush Studio.

A Southern Ohio Mining Town Decays-Podcast 640

Podcast 554-Latest Election State By State Polls

Podcast 554-Latest Election State By State Polls. For you political junkies, which includes me, it’s been a month since the last analysis of political polls state by state, and I promised another one at the end of September, 2016. If you want to compare the two state by state poll podcasts to really get a sense of movement check out Podcast 541. I do not intend to analyze the debate. I will not tell you who won the debate. I will not tell you whether people pay attention to the debates. None of the current state by state polls were taken after the debates so they do not reflect the effects on either candidate of the debates. With this in mind, over 80 million people watched the September 26th debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. The next state-by-state poll roundup podcast at the end of October will show what effect – if any – the debates may or may not have had. The biggest change between this podcast and the podcast in late August is that there are now more ‘toss up’ states — that is states with poll averages for president within the margin of error. In Podcast 554-State By State Polls, I am drawing on data from Real Clear Politics. Follow the link directly to an interactive electoral map of the United States and follow along, or may your own map. The tightening could be knock on effects from Clinton’s bad week of September 11th, or it could just be due to more polls closer to the election, when respondents start paying attention and are more likely to give responses. You’ll have to listen for my conclusions about whether more toss up states mean anything, but for the most part, both candidates are within the margins in 2012 and 2008 in the states they lead, or are trading leads. The big questions remain Florida, Ohio, Pennsyvania, Virginia, and to a lesser extent North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, and western states like Colorado, Arizona and Nevada. This is a state by state electoral election, so the national polls don’t matter, and the snap polls on who won the debate don’t matter. All that matters is the candidate’s performance, and get out the vote efforts for them in key electoral states. Listen and learn the state by state strongholds, battlegrounds, advantages and disadvantages, roughly a month out. We’ll come back at the end of October and again just before the election in early November, and see how the campaigning, media, and news events have changed the political landscape. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing of Saint Paul.

Podcast 543-Bob Davis Podcasts Radio Show-41

Podcast 543-Bob Davis Podcasts Radio Show-41. All new content for this week’s radio show. I devoted some time in Podcast 541 to the state by state polls. So, for the radio show, rather than excerpt segments from that podcast, given the fact that new polls are being taken almost daily, I decided to do an all new radio show with updates where applicable for the state by state polls. As I said in previous podcasts, the election of the president in the United States is not a popular vote affair. When you vote for an individual candidate, you are voting for a slate of electors, already chosen by the state parties, controlled by state election law. These are the people who actually vote for the president. While no elector has ever been prosecuted for voting their conscience so to speak, there have been faithless electors. And as much crap as the electoral system takes, there have only been two elector incidents in our history. Both of these happened in the early days of the republic (1796 and 1800) when the system called for the ‘runner up’ for president to be the vice president. Florida in 2000 was not an electoral college issue, since the electoral college had not voted. Florida in 2000 was a local vote counting issue that was litigated all the way up to the US Supreme Court, which ended up deciding the issue for George W. Bush. The US is a representative republic, not a direct democracy. Both parties want to tinker with the electoral college. Hillary Clinton has said we should amend the constitution to abolish the electoral college. Republicans want to tinker with it by pushing something called the ‘National Popular Vote’ which is essentially slaving all fifty states’ electoral votes to the popular vote in that state. Currently 29 states require the electors to vote for the winner of the popular vote. If the 2016 cycle leaves us with any impression, it is that mob rule in politics is not a good thing. My preference is to go back to letting the electors be the electors, and by the way, to letting state legislatures appoint US Senators as well. So, given the electoral factor in the US presidential election, focusing on national popularity polls is pretty much a waste of time. At this time, State by State polls do not paint a pretty picture for Republican Donald Trump, or even for the Republican effort to hold the US Senate. Republicans don’t like to hear bad news but there it is. Can Trump pull it out? Yes, but listen to the podcast to find out where he has to put his efforts in the next few weeks before the election. Whether you think of the starting gun as the primary season, the conventions, Labor Day or two weeks before election day, the Republicans are the underdogs at this point in time and they have their work cut out for them, all in this brand new Podcast 543-Bob Davis Podcasts Radio Show-41. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul and Karow Contracting.

Podcast 541

Podcast 541. Electoral College Yoga. Get ready to twist your brain into pretzel like shapes as I talk about the electoral college, polls, and what the benchmarks for Election 2016 are so far. I’ll do another benchmark in about a month and one just before the election in late October, or early November. There are a lot of caveats on polling data. While most media people and their viewers seem to want to talk about national presidential preference polls, the proof of the pudding is in the state by state polls. The United States does not elect its presidents with a national vote. In fact, a presidential election is fifty state elections. Voters are selecting a slate of electors, chosen and voting generally according to state law and state party rules. So when you hear one candidate is ‘ahead’ over another in a national poll it really doesn’t mean anything. In 2008 and again in 2012 Republicans in particular were so hopeful based on national preference polls that if you said McCain or Mitt Romney wasn’t going to win, you were ‘raining on the parade’. But, if you looked closely at state polls in those election cycles, the outcome was not a surprise. State polls have their own problems; Smaller sample size, different polling methodologies, and in some states they are no polls until just before the election. While its not advisable to compare different polls of different sources and methodologies, we do it all the time. We’re looking for trends primarily. Currently while Donald J. Trump leads Hillary Clinton in a national presidential preference poll, the state polls tell a completely different story. It’s not a good story for republicans. The case isn’t closed. Trump still has time, but time is fleeting. I don’t support any candidate. I’m not working for any candidate. I’m not going to tell you how to vote. I’m also not going to spin the polling data to make you think something can happen, or is going to happen. If you want the straight talk on what’s going on, the Bob Davis Podcasts is the place to check back for these benchmark state-by-state analyses as we progress to Election Day 2016. Sponsored by Karow Contracting and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul.

Podcast 494

Surprises. In an early spring shocker, Senator Ted Cruz suspends his campaign after losing the Indiana Republican Presidential Preference Primary to New Yorker Donald Trump. On the democrat side, Bernie Sanders bested Hillary Clinton in the Hoosier State Democratic Primary. The story of the week, however, is the shocking suspension of the Ted Cruz campaign. Surprises. Cruz supporters were preparing for a contested republican convention. Though stories appeared late last week suggesting — off the record of course — Cruz campaign officials were ‘demoralized’ due to polls showing at least double digit leads in Indiana for Trump, the Senator’s introduction of Californian Carly Fiorina as his ‘running mate’ would suggest the campaign was still thinking about the Golden State and its hundred plus delegates as late as two weeks ago. Media story lines have now shifted to the ‘inevitability’ of a Trump nomination, or that Trump is the ‘presumptive’ nominee for the GOP. These kinds of over reactions to Trump’s Indiana win are to be expected in a self serving Media, but it’s still premature. Certainly one cannot predict the future. While it’s true that Trump’s path to the nomination is clearer in the remaining state primaries, with the absence of Cruz, the actual delegate count in Cleveland remains to be determined. It would be unwise for the Trump campaign or the media to count the republican establishment out. Down? Yes. But not out. Surprises. Then there is the question of what happened to Cruz? Are self identifying ‘conservatives’ finally settling on Trump, as opposed to Cruz? Was it a mistake for Cruz to encourage talk show hosts to campaign with him and were all the fasts, comparisons to George Washington and religious exhortations a turn off for some? And, what about the #nevertrump crowd? Looks like another talk-show-blogger-host effort that failed miserably. Finally, to get a real sense of the surprise inside the Cruz campaign after tonight’s bombshell, we talk to one of the campaign’s state coordinators, Mandy Benz. A tough night for someone who has worked very hard for her candidate and what she believed in, which deserves respect regardless of your political views. (Editor’s Note: Late breaking news, rumors that John Kasich is out, and the RNC is supporting Donald Trump as the presumptive nominee. This changes the picture regarding Trump’s delegate count in upcoming primaries.)Sponsored by Hydrus Performance and Brush Studio in the West End, Saint Louis Park, Minnesota.

Podcast 445

The Highway Song. As the media cycle repeats on an endless loop, boredom begins to set in. How many more arguments do you want to hear about Donald Trump being Hitler, or Ted Cruz being Ted Cruz, or Hillary Clinton and Benghazi? There is a real world waiting to be experienced. Not the make believe world the media’s twenty four hour a day obsession with American politics seems to be showing us. When there’s a new wrinkle, the Bob Davis Podcasts will break in with an update. Meanwhile this podcast asks, is travel an escape from reality or is travel reality and our lives are an escape from travel? A walk and talk through a ‘warm’ early December evening is designed to stir your memories of travel and your wanderlust. Where have you gone? Where would you like to go? Why? When did you first experience a sense of wonder as you traveled to new places? Was it a road trip with the parents? A first flight to some exotic location in the islands? A ski trip in the mountains? A road trip, with college friends, back in the day? What cities have you visited? Where would you like to visit? New York City? Chicago? New Orleans? San Francisco? Las Vegas? For me its all about the road trip. As I prepare for the big Mobile Podcast Command Winter ’16 trip to Iowa for the caucuses, then onto the mid south, and the eastern seaboard through the North and South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and Texas, my mind turns to the things I see and learn through the screen … the windscreen that is. There’s nothing better for the soul. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul and X Government Trucks