2018 Senate Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 751

These days political coverage turns elections into sporting events. My mission is to provide political coverage without making predictions. Let’s start with the Senate in 2018 Senate Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 751.

November 6th 2018

First of all throughout this podcast I refer to election day as November 7th 2018. In fact it’s November 6th, 2018. Until election day, many of the questions people have about outcomes will remain unanswered. I’ll tell you why.

Statewide Races

Furthermore commentators love to make national predictions. It’s important to remember these are individual state elections. Despite efforts by the media to make you think these are national elections, they aren’t. They’re local elections. Find out more in 2018 Senate Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 751.

The Stakes Are High

Especially relevant are the stakes. The future of Donald Trump’s presidency is in the balance with these Midterm Elections regardless of the local and national issues driving them.  Much of the coverage of the 2018 midterm elections hinges on this truth.

Key Races

What it comes down to are about 6 or 7 key races in various states around the country. As we get closer to election day (November 6th 2018, by the way) the line up of so called toss up races might change.

Holding The Majority

Republicans currently hold 50 seats in the US Senate with one vacant seat. Democrats hold 48. 2 Independents caucus with democrats giving them 49 votes potentially. With Vice President Mike Pence, the republicans can count on a 51 seat majority.

Arizona’s governor will appoint a replacement for the late John McCain, giving the republicans a potential 52 vote majority.

Will republicans hold that majority?

Making Useless Predictions

Finally I am so tired of hearing these know it alls making predictions based on primary vote results and conventional wisdom. As you’ll hear in 2018 Senate Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 751 polling is pretty thin in some key races. It’s about time someone covered the story without telling you who’s going to win.

Trump’s Twitter Feed

In conclusion we’ll cover about 7 senate races worth talking about. Will the president’s twitter feed and rally machine help republicans or hurt them?

As far as predictions, I remember a sports writer’s response when I asked him which team was going to win the big game Sunday. He said “That’s why we play the game!”

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating Of Saint Paul

2018 Senate Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 751

 

Podcast 554-Latest Election State By State Polls

Podcast 554-Latest Election State By State Polls. For you political junkies, which includes me, it’s been a month since the last analysis of political polls state by state, and I promised another one at the end of September, 2016. If you want to compare the two state by state poll podcasts to really get a sense of movement check out Podcast 541. I do not intend to analyze the debate. I will not tell you who won the debate. I will not tell you whether people pay attention to the debates. None of the current state by state polls were taken after the debates so they do not reflect the effects on either candidate of the debates. With this in mind, over 80 million people watched the September 26th debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. The next state-by-state poll roundup podcast at the end of October will show what effect – if any – the debates may or may not have had. The biggest change between this podcast and the podcast in late August is that there are now more ‘toss up’ states — that is states with poll averages for president within the margin of error. In Podcast 554-State By State Polls, I am drawing on data from Real Clear Politics. Follow the link directly to an interactive electoral map of the United States and follow along, or may your own map. The tightening could be knock on effects from Clinton’s bad week of September 11th, or it could just be due to more polls closer to the election, when respondents start paying attention and are more likely to give responses. You’ll have to listen for my conclusions about whether more toss up states mean anything, but for the most part, both candidates are within the margins in 2012 and 2008 in the states they lead, or are trading leads. The big questions remain Florida, Ohio, Pennsyvania, Virginia, and to a lesser extent North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, and western states like Colorado, Arizona and Nevada. This is a state by state electoral election, so the national polls don’t matter, and the snap polls on who won the debate don’t matter. All that matters is the candidate’s performance, and get out the vote efforts for them in key electoral states. Listen and learn the state by state strongholds, battlegrounds, advantages and disadvantages, roughly a month out. We’ll come back at the end of October and again just before the election in early November, and see how the campaigning, media, and news events have changed the political landscape. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing of Saint Paul.

Podcast 473

Super Tuesday. Final thoughts from Norman, Oklahoma as this Road Trip draws to a close, On the eve of Super Tuesday, 2016. A dozen or so states and territories have primaries or caucuses scheduled for democrat and republican parties. The media has covered — and will continue to cover — this primary season like a general election and now we have arrived at the second big day after Iowa’s Caucuses a month or so ago … Super Tuesday. For people wondering who to vote for. For people who think this is the actual election. For people who believe the charlatans on talk radio, and the talking heads on TV, and the blow hards at the local political meetings telling you what you should do; Some points to ground you. This is not a general election. These candidates are running to amass delegates to the party convention. Delegates who probably won’t even vote to nominate the candidate they may or may not be pledged to when the final vote for the nomination comes at the end of the mainline party conventions this summer. Candidates are coming to your state and your town to talk to the movers and shakers in the parties, and they’re making deals behind the scenes while the media covers the little shows they put on for the public called ‘retail political’ events. They’re all the same. Meanwhile our news media focuses on personalities, innuendo, open fights, name calling and other antics. Why? It’s the fire on the prairie, the war in the mountains. It’s what produces clicks and views and it’s what keeps the perfumed princes of media in their chairs, and in five thousand dollar suits and one thousand dollar shoes. The country needs new thinking, new ideas and new action to bring in the new economy that is out there, coming into the world, whether the czars in Washington and New York and Hollywood, and Silicon Valley want it. We need a government that protects our constitutional rights and secures our defense, and does little else. We need policies that free the individual, provide economic opportunity for everyone, and gets out of our way. Is this represented in the political mess that is the ‘primary election cycle 2016’? Sponsored by Pride of Homes and X Government Cars

Podcast 357

Wyoming Breakout. Back home from Road Trip II, 2015. The story of the ‘breakout from Wyoming’, going up and down a big mountain in the middle of the spring snow storm, and outrunning the weather heading east. The objective? Don’t stop until warmer weather and or sunshine, whichever occurs first. In this case, it happened to be Sidney, Nebraska. Then, a day’s drive in the pouring rain through the Cornhusker State, onto Iowa for the final leg home from Des Moines to the Twin Cities. The Mobile Podcast Command Unit 8 performed brilliantly under varying conditions. Email from a listener introduced to us through a knock on the window of Unit 8 at midnight, behind a Casino. Plus some thoughts about the 2016 political cycle in the superb setting of the famous Nepenthe, located in the mountains of Big Sur, California, as we wait for a table, through the magic of audio podcasts. One of the things that kept coming up throughout the trip is this question of whether anyone who isn’t a political operative, or junkie, is paying attention to the cattle call of republican candidates, and the farce of democrat presidential candidates in the current time frame. Farmers let their fields lay fallow, so the soil isn’t fatigued. Creatives know sometimes you need to take a break in order to avoid burn out, writer’s block, and to get to the good stuff, creatively speaking. The media knows nothing of this, and continues to sift, and report and sift, and grind until there’s nothing left. What’s important right now isn’t personalities, the outrage of the day, or some expose. People need time to take a break from all the politics so they can actually do some internal thinking about the things that matter most to them. What are the overarching themes? Has any party developed an overall narrative that motivates real people to work and vote for the candidates? Does the candidate him or herself even matter? We’re not hearing those themes. We’re hearing what this one said about that one and how this one is getting more contributions, and the other one looks good or bad. The most divisive institution in American politics is not Congress, it’s the media. Can people tune it out? Sitting in the beautiful sunshine of Big Sur, staring out at the Pacific makes one think it is possible. Sponsored by Baklund R&D. (Image from California Travels) 

Podcast 356

Utah and Wyoming. Stranded at a truck stop in Sinclair, Wyoming. A long day (or two?) of travel comes to a screeching halt at a truck stop, where hundreds of trucks and drivers are stranded after the State of Wyoming shut down I-80. The cause? A 70+ car pile up during a spring snow storm. Coming out of the Wasatch mountains in Nevada, into the salt flats of Utah, into Wyoming. Following the path of the Donner-Reed party in reverse. So, in this podcast, on a snowy Friday night in Wyoming, time to break out a few more facts and opinions about the tragic story of the Donner party. In 1846, a series of mistakes by a group of around 100 people heading to California for a better life, led to one of Western History’s most enduring and compelling stories, with the chief character in the tragedy, the unpredictable and fierce western weather. What was the Donner-Reed party’s gift to us? Did they find a happy life once the survivors reached their final places of settlement? Visiting the various waypoints along their trail shows what an almost impossible task it must have been for 87 people, animals, and baggage in tow, to cross to California from Missouri. (Editor’s note: I-80 finally opened, but we were advised to hang around awhile. I did this podcast, and finally decided to head up 80 East, because another storm was brewing. It was a little icy, but I made it to Laramie. There, I decided to take a nap. When I got up about 2 hours later (at about 5 AM) it was snowing like hell, and all the drivers were hightailing out of the truck stop at Laramie. I decided to make a break for it, because I did not want to get stuck at another truck stop. Mountains, steep grades, freezing pavement, blowing snow, snow and ice encrusted windshield wipers, following trucks up the mountain toward Cheyenne at 25 miles and hour. We were our own little Donner Party in reverse, but the Mobile Podcast Command Unit 8 did not falter, slip or slide. Thanks to all you truckers that let me hang close and follow. Whew!) Sponsored by X Government Cars! Don’t forget to Join the Bob Davis Podcasts and Mobile Podcast Command Unit 8 live at the Chanhassen Dinner Theater on April 25th. Details here

If Nothing Changes…

When the politicians in Washington see permanent, action oriented organizations in control of large blocks of money and votes, they’ll be singing your tune and they’ll keep singing it.