Podcast 271

Gas Oil Collapse. Energy and Oil and Politics. We may be at the beginning of the end of an era in the energy markets, politics and economic policy but people are never going to figure it out with the terrible job the media is doing reporting on these topics. Gas is below two dollars in 13 states, crude trading at 55 dollars a barrel, with more drops expected. Meanwhile, OPEC refuses to cut production, even refuses to hold a meeting to discuss it. The drop in oil over the last few months of 40 percent so far, most of it in the last two months is beginning to have an effect. OPEC’s price war on Frackers in the US, Canada and Brazil, the international version of a gas war, is beginning to have economic and political effects. When the cheerleaders talk about oil ‘acting like a tax cut’, remember there is a lot more to this story. If energy production in the US is a big piece of the manufacturing boom, what happens when lower prices curtails exploration? Will lower oil and gas prices still act like a tax cut? What about disinflation, or outright deflation in commodity prices? What about dropping demand due to economic slow downs in China, Europe, and Latin America? Do you think the US is ‘decoupled’ from the rest of the world’s economies? On Wall Street, the story is completely different. There, investors are moving money from the market to long term Treasury Bonds, an indication of expected weakness? Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve will be hard pressed to raise interest rates (which its wants, and perhaps needs to do) in the face of declining commodity prices. This isn’t just an international problem. A Minnesota State Legislator wants to reduce farm property taxes, due to the decreased revenues farmers are seeing on their crops. As the sun sets on the Democrat Senate Majority, and rises on a huge Republican majority in the US Congress as well as state legislatures and governor’s mansions, we’re also about to enter a new era in politics, or perhaps close an old one. How will the last two years of the Obama administration differ from the previous 6? Despite the President’s progressive rhetoric, does the budget deal indicate will be a little different when it comes to horse trading with Congress? Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating and Depotstar. 

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Podcast 234

Market Plunge. If it wasn’t for Ebola, this week’s Market Plunge would be the top story and we’d all be talking about it. Was it really less than a month ago that President Obama said the market and economy had come roaring back? And this week the market gave back all the gains so far of 2014. Will it come back. Analysts aren’t so sure. As the rest of the economies in the world contract, all hope was placed in US economic growth which the fantasy world created by the media hyped. Bad retail sales numbers this week dashed those hopes. Meanwhile the world’s governments and central banks that depend on inflation to wipe away debts, are very concerned about disinflation turning into deflation. Are lower commodity prices a good sign, or a bad sign? In the final analysis, the US economy will probably not be enough to act as a counterweight to fading growth in the Euro Zone and China, even with lower commodity prices. The worry on Wall Street? Faltering demand among consumers. Surprise! While the President touts economic ‘recovery’ the number of Americans on SNAP benefits (in other words Food Stamps) skyrockets, the clearest indication yet that the newly employed are in low wage part time jobs, and those out of the work force may stay out as long as government programs pay them to. Not a good combination, and certainly not one that indicates dynamic growth. What’s going on? Steve Forbes has five suggestions that are pretty good. The upshot? We’re a long way from the kinds of radical reforms that will change the scope, cost and size of the Federal Government and get things back on track. It isn’t gridlock causing the problems, its the people. It’s our politics. How do we put away creaky old Keynesian concepts moderate Republicans, democrats and progressives have championed going back to the New Deal? How do we cut away regulation, spending and taxation and reduce government power, so that new decentralizing technologies can empower the individual to innovate, generate tomorrow’s successes, and power the US out of the malaise we find ourselves in? Yes, there are Republicans afraid of radical change just as there are democrats afraid to reduce the size and power of government. We have to stop expecting creativity, innovation and entrepreneurial instincts from politicians. News Flash! Your congressman is not Steve Jobs. Not by a long shot. Some ideas to consider when thinking about the other major story chronicling the failure of ‘big government’ these days; The economy. Sponsored by Depotstar. 

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