Podcast 244

Halloween 2. The second of 2 Halloween podcasts. This one is a final, relaxed analysis of the political landscape before we head into Election Day next week. Now the election ‘moneyballers’; so called analysts who have been predicting a ‘republican wave’, or not predicting a ‘republican wave’ have begun to hedge their bets as the polls and races tighten. This is a continuing disservice to Americans, because we are being set up to believe the polls show a specific outcome. The 2014 election cycle is 435 local congressional districts, one third of the Senate in statewide races, scores of state legislature races (for example the Minnesota House, but not the Senate.) and races for the Governor’s mansion. The idea that any poll or any number of polls can be predictive of this disparate election terrain is and always has been ridiculous. Did you know, for example, that Colorado’s entire election this year is being conducted with mail in ballots, almost 2 million of which have not yet been received. Meanwhile opinion polls are too close to call across the country, and races that were republican ‘locks’ have flipped, and races that were democrat locks have flipped. And here come the sandbaggers. People who are still sour grapes because they predicted Romney would win in 2012, and have never lived it down. (Editor’s Note: I said all along Romney would lose, and the polls never showed he would win.) Republicans are criticized for talking about ‘momentum’ which seems like a pretty harmless thing to claim, less than a week before election. And then there is Tom Steyer, the turn-coat fossil fuel hedge fund gazillionaire who has put over 50 million dollars into various midterm campaigns and is now the largest contributor to candidates in this cycle. Hey! What about the Koch Brothers? Nope. Steyer and the Unions, pulling a Ben Bernanke, dropping money from helicopters at the last minute in an attempt to win tough senate and house races, and beat people like Wisconsin’s Scott Walker. Finally, a general discussion of how the podcasts intend to cover election night, and the next podcast on the polls. Waiting now for the last spate of polls in the pipeline to be released before election day, and we’ll see if there are any hard and fast ‘predictions’ that can be made. The media continues to set people up emotionally on both sides of the political spectrum to believe predictions that you can’t factually make, and the result is a sense of futility, frustration and disenfranchisement when the expected scenario does not materialize. Elections throughout American history have always been unpredictable, even before 24/7 cable news coverage, screaming roundtables, table pounding talk show hosts and polls. Before the election, a prediction about what democrats will suggest to President Obama after the election, whether the Republicans win the senate or not. Finally a few words about the state of Minnesota Politics, after a visit to the Eastern side of the Saint Croix River, in Wisconsin. Sponsored by Baklund R&D. 

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The Bob Davis Podcast

Podcast 243

Halloween 1. The first of two podcasts for Halloween, 2014. Some developing stories catching Bob Davis’ interest as the media zeroes in on Election 2014 coverage. Now we’re scolding people for the Halloween costumes they’re wearing. Admittedly, most of today’s adults have never grown up and thus feel compelled to wear costumes for any and all occasions, whenever there is an opportunity. Yet now, the scolds are telling people Ebola Hazmat suits are ‘in bad taste’, those dressing up as ISIS terrorists ‘could be shot by police if ISIS terrorists were to dress up as ISIS terrorists’ (Editor’s Note: That one is really a stretch, but I did not make it up.) and Halloween displays with ‘severed heads’ are also in bad taste. Not to mention the criticism of young women’s increasingly sexy costumes as inappropriate, which if you are a single male is decidedly NOT inappropriate, but anyway. Hey people! It’s Halloween. It’s an offensive ‘holiday’ anyway. Can we give it a rest for 24 hours, and let people have some fun before they die of Ebola, or in a terror attack …or not? Meanwhile in the real world, the Centers For Disease Control has subtly let America know that Ebola can be transmitted through ‘water droplets’, which means yes, sneezing and coughing by an infected person could potentially infect someone else, and there would be no touching or ‘direct contact with bodily fluids’. Maybe this is why the US Military is quarantining personnel coming back from Ebola stricken areas in West Africa, for 21 days, no exceptions. A doctor in the Minneapolis and Saint Paul area writes in the Minneapolis Tribune this week, that in his experience symptoms are often difficult for doctors to connect with diseases, and people can be symptomatic before they have fevers, and not know it. Tom Combs also says there isn’t enough data yet to conclusively say that a quarantine isn’t just safe, and smart policy. He also says, people need to understand Quarantine is not punishment, nor incarceration. Quarantine is a way contain a disease and prevent its spread. Meanwhile, states are getting out in front of our intellectual-and-reluctant-to-act President. Louisiana sent letters to attendees to a topical disease forum in New Orleans, disinviting those who had been in West Africa in the last week, citing the need to protect the citizens of Louisiana. Hey! Some good economic news came out just in time for the election! How about that? 3.5 percent GDP growth in the 3rd Quarter. Most of it in the Government and Energy Sector. Oddly enough, Goldman now says that the US has dethroned OPEC and is now the New Oil Order. Falling prices for Gas is good, but this is not so good for investors in oil stocks, or countries that rely on oil revenues. (Editors Note: Take that suckers!) By the way … where’s your old crazy ‘peak oil’ uncle these days? The richest man in the world, Carlos Slim says 60 is the new 40, you shouldn’t retire and that soon people will work only 3 days a week. Machines work work 24/7, we’ll work 11 hour shifts and have more time for retraining and leisure. Finally, when was the last time you took a vacation? Why 5 weeks of vacation may soon become mandatory, and common. Sponsored by Depotstar. 

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Podcast 242 – Governor Scott Walker

Governor Scott Walker. The Wisconsin Governor joins the Bob Davis Podcasts. We caught up with Walker, campaigning in Somerset, Wisconsin in the finals days of the 2014 campaign. Supporters talk about why they believe in Walker, and the differences between Minnesota and Wisconsin politics. As the final days of the race tick by, a new poll shows Walker leading by 7 points. For most of the race, it has been a see-saw with little more than a point separating Walker, or his opponent Mary Burke from the lead. So far, the race has been too close to call. With the President, First Lady and former President Bill Clinton campaigning for Burke, and the Unions pouring cash into attack TV ads and ground game, this will be one of the most interesting races to watch on Election night 2014. Not only is the race important for Wisconsinites, this is probably the one gubernatorial race in the United States that commands national attention. Most of the focus of Election 2014 coverage has been the US Senate. With Republicans sure to add to its majority in the House of Representatives, the story line has been that the party will manage to pick up 6+ seats in the Senate races, to regain control of the US Senate. The Bob Davis Podcast hasn’t talked a lot about local races, so this is a departure. What makes it interesting is the similarities between Minnesota and Wisconsin, and the clear differences. Both states have a large number of rural counties that vote republican, with a few urban centers that vote democrat. Scott Walker and Republicans in the state Assembly have been able to overcome a disadvantage Minnesota Republicans so far haven’t quite figured out how to do. Walker’s supporters — some of them former Minnesota residents now living in Western Wisconsin — offer a glimpse into how politics in the two states differ. At first blush, its passion combined with a candidate that offer hope and a chance to win. How does Walker do it? Perhaps it is his willingness to take big risks to reap big rewards. Another factor may be grassroots support and organization, that generates votes and contributions consistently. In states with seeming democrat locks, due to large urban populations, the focus needs to be on smaller, medium sized cities, and counties where town government, school boards, and county governments suffer at the hands of a progressive government that must tax and regulate to meet altruistic obligations and to cover the costs of union pay and benefits. Western Wisconsin, in particular, is home to many small and medium sized businesses that serve Western Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota (The Twin Cities Metro). Although it might be sacrilege to suggest it, the Gopher state might take some lessons — at least politically — from the Badger state. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul. 

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