Art-Of-Politics-Polling-Prediction-Bob Davis Podcast 935

Updating Current Political Polls

Firstly Art-Of-Politics-Polling-Prediction-Bob Davis Podcast 935 is part of a series of podcasts updating current polls for 2020.

No Blanket Statements

Secondly I tend to avoid blanket statements when it comes to political polls.

Politics is An Art

Finally I believe despite all the technology we have politics is still an art.

No Silver Bullet For Predictions

Even more there is no application or spreadsheet that can ‘predict’ an outcome based on polls.

Probabilities

In short we can only look at probabilities.

Snapshots

Polls are snapshots in real time.

Shocking Confusion When It Comes To Polls

Meanwhile pundits and commentators continue to display a shocking confusion when it comes to understanding political polling.

Out and Out Bias

Most importantly some are ‘in the tank’ for one or the other candidate.

National Polls A Disservice To Supporters of Both Candidates

Consequently all of this political chatter and predictions does a disservice to supporters of all candidates.

Your Own Reality Check

On the other hand what if I can show you how to do your own reality check on your smart phone whenever you hear some wild prediction of a ‘landslide’ for either candidate.

That’s what Art-Of-Politics-Polling-Prediction-Bob Davis Podcast 935 is all about.

Still All About Showing Up

In conclusion if we have learned anything over the years, it is politics still belongs to those who show up.

State By State Battleground

Working hard down to the election is always the best approach. National polls are useless as the popular vote does not determine the presidency in the US.

Stay With The Bob Davis Podcasts

To sum up stay with me for a clear eyed view of the state by state polling results so that you’re not shocked and surprised on election night. Anything is possible, but right now it’s still a close race.

(Editor’s Note: As I recorded this podcast new polls were being released and results uploaded. As of the date of this post, the new polls have not changed my conclusion that 2020 will be close based on tight races in battleground states. I’ll do another podcast after the next spate of polls and we’ll see how things change. The good news is, if you listen to this podcast you’ll know how to update yourself when new polls come out.)

Sponsored by Virtus Law Strategic Business Specialists

Art-Of-Politics-Polling-Prediction-Bob Davis Podcast 935

Will-Coronavirus-Sink-Trump?-Bob Davis Podcast-907

Confusion About A Pandemic

First of all there’s a lot of confusion about Coronavirus these days. One thing is for sure. It’s spreading across the world. Will-Coronavirus-Sink-Trump? Learn more in Will-Coronovirus-Sink-Trump?-Bob Davis Podcast-907.

Economic Fall Out Will-Coronavirus-Sink-Trump?

Certainly I think we need to talk about the possible economic fall out from Coronovirus. Above all, when it comes to politics, isn’t it all about the economy?

Economy Top Issue

Moreover since the economy is the number one issue in key battleground states, could a Coronavirus pandemic sink Trump?

Half Truths

Especially relevant, half truths about our ‘booming’ economy and the expectations these half truths have created. Even more reports about negative economic effects are spreading faster than Covid-19.

State By State Battlegrounds

Furthermore I’ve been reviewing polls and potential match ups in battle ground states. In addition researching economic and business news with an eye toward the 2020 election.

Republican Fortunes Tied To Economic ‘Boom’

Truth is not only republican fortunes are tied to Trump. The president has attached himself to stock market performance and a ‘booming’ economy.

Health Care Too

Even more Economy and Health Care are consistently top issues. Especially in Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsyvania and Florida. Key states in the election this fall. What happens if the virus causes a recession? Learn more in Will-Coronovirus-Sink-Trump?-Bob Davis Podcast-907.

Stock Markets And Economic Indicators Could Sink Trump

In conclusion, the stock market is already in correction. Concerns about the bond market and economic indicators preceded the threat of Coronavirus.

Top Issues

Finally no matter how serious it gets, this will be one of the top issues going forward.

Can We Talk?

Let’s talk about the contours and possible effects on the battleground for election 2020.

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Will-Coronovirus-Sink-Trump?-Bob Davis Podcast-907

 

 

 

Conventional Wisdom-Election 2018 Follies-Podcast 764

These days it always pays to wait for an outcome before you predict the future. With the confirmation of Brett Cavanaugh to the US Supreme Court we have an outcome. Now comes an avalanche of predictions about the court fight’s impact on the election. Find out why I say ignore the prognosticators in Conventional Wisdom-Election 2018 Follies-Podcast 764.

Bottom line, elections belong to the people who vote. Not tea leaves

Most noteworthy in 2018 are several US Senate Elections. Moreover scores of House elections are very close.

Blue Wave. Wait! Red Wave! No Wait! Blue Wave

What’s the media telling the American people? It’s a ‘blue’ wave fueled by young adults and women angry at the treatment of Christine Ford, nemesis of the former court nominee. Don’t like that story line? Guess what? Republican voters are seething and will go out and vote again democrats in droves. So say the story tellers.

Not Enough Data

In contrast to the nonsense being spewed by now famous political ‘scientists’ no one knows who’s actually going to vote. Polls are scanty and some shoddily conducted. Another factor is the fact that determining who will vote and why is truly an art. In other words, no one knows. It’s about time someone explains it’s hard to say what will happen on November 6th, without picking sides.

Quick! Who’s Your Congressman?

Truth is midterm voter turn out is lower than presidential years. Many people don’t even know who their congressman is. National issues don’t always drive elections. Almost all the House districts that aren’t gerrymandered are close. And somehow one national story is going to drive the results of all these elections? Are they toss ups that can go either way? Are these close races evidence of a blue wave? Find out in Conventional Wisdom-Election 2018 Follies-Podcast 764.

Coverage Of Politics In This Country is Terrible

In conclusion I am driven to do another political podcast I did not want to do. Why? Because most of what passes for political coverage in this country is terrible. Too many predictions. Lots of bias. Mostly telling both sides what they want to hear. Finally someone who tells it like it is and waits for election day to judge the outcome.

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Conventional Wisdom-Election 2018 Follies-Podcast 764