Podcast 246

Final Polls Before Election. Election 2014 Coverage. As this podcast is posted, it is the early hours of Election Day 2014 in the United States. One third of the US Senate, all of the House of Representatives, scores of Governors and State Representatives and Senators across the country, are waiting to see what an unpredictable electorate will decide. These races are very important to the lives of the people in these individual states, and to the people of the country as a whole. Politics is not Sports, but it is being covered as though it is. Politicians are presented as players. Speech writers, campaign managers, party officials and insiders as coaches, former politicians and pundits become willing participants in what is being described as the ‘pageant’ of American politics. Viewers and listeners become invested in which ‘team’ wins or loses, and so emotionally identify with a ‘side’, as though that reflects the true nature of politics. The relationship between voters and their representatives is complex and runs deep. Since cable television news channels decided to give up reporting the news, and copied talk radio’s format, television now pushes people to the right or left paradigm in order to keep them watching. Although political polling was a factor in election coverage before 2010, controversy over Obama Care spurred the Tea Party Movement, and carried Republicans to a majority in the House of Representatives. In 2012 the polls indicated a slight advantage for Republican candidate Mitt Romney, and the Republican establishment felt it was entitled to the presidency. Only a few people said the polls were too close (Editor’s Note: I was one of them), but they were ignored in the headlong confirmation between Republicans that they would ‘win’. Moral of the story? Polls can be wrong. Really wrong. And here we are again, in November of 2014, with the election ‘moneyballers’ applying sports statistical analysis to something as widely variable and unreliable as political polling, and not just political polling but, polling in individual states. Added to this, media executives, producers, program directors and editors pushing their writers, broadcasters and guests to conclude, predict and provoke the audience, just as long as they watch another twenty four hours. And then there is the relentless onrush of negative mailers, attack ads, flaps and gaffes that go viral through social media and become ‘news stories. In this podcast, we’ll run down the polls one more time and make no predictions. At the end of this special edition election update from The Bob Davis Podcasts you’ll know how the polls stand in the so called ‘battleground’ states, and you’ll be able to come to your own conclusions about whether the predictions are outlandish or not. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul, and by Depotstar.

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Podcast 242 – Governor Scott Walker

Governor Scott Walker. The Wisconsin Governor joins the Bob Davis Podcasts. We caught up with Walker, campaigning in Somerset, Wisconsin in the finals days of the 2014 campaign. Supporters talk about why they believe in Walker, and the differences between Minnesota and Wisconsin politics. As the final days of the race tick by, a new poll shows Walker leading by 7 points. For most of the race, it has been a see-saw with little more than a point separating Walker, or his opponent Mary Burke from the lead. So far, the race has been too close to call. With the President, First Lady and former President Bill Clinton campaigning for Burke, and the Unions pouring cash into attack TV ads and ground game, this will be one of the most interesting races to watch on Election night 2014. Not only is the race important for Wisconsinites, this is probably the one gubernatorial race in the United States that commands national attention. Most of the focus of Election 2014 coverage has been the US Senate. With Republicans sure to add to its majority in the House of Representatives, the story line has been that the party will manage to pick up 6+ seats in the Senate races, to regain control of the US Senate. The Bob Davis Podcast hasn’t talked a lot about local races, so this is a departure. What makes it interesting is the similarities between Minnesota and Wisconsin, and the clear differences. Both states have a large number of rural counties that vote republican, with a few urban centers that vote democrat. Scott Walker and Republicans in the state Assembly have been able to overcome a disadvantage Minnesota Republicans so far haven’t quite figured out how to do. Walker’s supporters — some of them former Minnesota residents now living in Western Wisconsin — offer a glimpse into how politics in the two states differ. At first blush, its passion combined with a candidate that offer hope and a chance to win. How does Walker do it? Perhaps it is his willingness to take big risks to reap big rewards. Another factor may be grassroots support and organization, that generates votes and contributions consistently. In states with seeming democrat locks, due to large urban populations, the focus needs to be on smaller, medium sized cities, and counties where town government, school boards, and county governments suffer at the hands of a progressive government that must tax and regulate to meet altruistic obligations and to cover the costs of union pay and benefits. Western Wisconsin, in particular, is home to many small and medium sized businesses that serve Western Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota (The Twin Cities Metro). Although it might be sacrilege to suggest it, the Gopher state might take some lessons — at least politically — from the Badger state. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul.

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