Victory Becomes Defeat-Big Mouth Loses-Bob Davis Podcast 776

A week after the midterms Democrats add to their wins. Moreover recounts could mean two governor and one more senate loss for the GOP. Throw in the Arizona Senate loss and you have to wonder. This is victory? In Victory Becomes Defeat-Big Mouth Loses-Bob Davis Podcast 776.

Not A Bad Performance For Democrats

32 House seats at minimum, 7 or more governors and several state legislatures is not a bad performance for an opposition party in a midterm.

May Be More Democrat Wins Coming

In addition recounts in Florida and Georgia may produce two more governorships and a senate hold for democrats. Pretty hard for Trump to claim victory now.

It Could Have Been Avoided

As I said in election night, republicans could have avoided this. More in Victory Becomes Defeat-Big Mouth Loses-Bob Davis Podcast 776.

Apologists Make Excuses

Already GOP apologists say the polls are biased, and they’re pointing fingers and making excuses. Especially relevant are complaints about recounts and money poured into negative advertising. This was a surprise?

Where Were The Big Republican Donors?

Finally 2018 saw the highest voter turn out of any midterm election in fifty years. Democrats cobbled together close wins across the country by turning out their voters. Why couldn’t the NRCC do the same? Where were the big republican donors? What happened  to Trump’s big margins because of all the rallies? Find out in Victory Becomes Defeat-Big Mouth Loses-Bob Davis Podcast 776.

Better Than Hillary Is Not A Plan

In conclusion in my opinion “Better than Hillary“, waving the constitution and shouting “Build The Wall” is not a plan for the future. So called conservatives might not like the democrat plan but at least they had one. A plan beats no plan.

Big Mouth and Milquetoast

In the end a big mouth and milquetoast moderate republicanism isn’t enough to build on. I remain deeply disillusioned with both political parties but republicans disillusion me the most. In the last two years the GOP added trillions to the debt, failed to repeal the ACA and has relied too much on Trump’s mouth.

Maybe republicans got what they deserved.

Sponsored by Citizens Council For Health Freedom and Reliafund Payment Processors

Victory Becomes Defeat-Big Mouth Loses-Bob Davis Podcast 776

Final Approach-Lock Down-Election 2018-Bob Davis Podcast 773

These days everyone on the air everywhere seems hell bent for leather to predict the future. Moreover they’re also often partisan commentators. In this final podcast before the election, what to look for on election night. Get details in Final Approach-Lock Down-Election 2018-Bob Davis Podcast 773.

No Predictions

I don’t do predictions. For the purposes of election coverage at The Bob Davis Podcasts, I don’t do partisanship.

Has Donald Trump Changed Politics?

For election 2018 I have two especially relevant questions. First, have the tactics of President Donald Trump changed American politics? Second, are the media’s predictions skewed? Get it all in Final Approach-Lock Down-Election 2018-Bob Davis Podcast 773.

Nine Podcasts Detailing Toss Up Races

I’ve done nine podcasts detailing the so called toss up races for House, Senate and Governors across the country. Listen to them here. These podcasts explain the media storyline which is that President Trump will lose the house, at the very least.

Democrats Need 26 Wins

Democrats need to win at least 26 seats in order to take back the house. With over 60 toss up races, according to some analysts the storyline that there will be a change in House leadership is easily sold. Moreover taking back the Senate will be even more difficult. In Final Approach-Lock Down-Election 2018-Bob Davis Podcast 773 I explain why it might not be that easy.

Decide For Yourself

Finally if you’re watching TV on election night you need to know what to look for so you can decide for yourself what the chances of a change in House or Senate leadership is a possible outcome.

No Polling Bad Polling

Truth is many ‘toss up’ classifications for House elections across the country don’t even have polling to back it up. What’s more what polling exists is either spotty, dated, to skewed. I explain why, where and how in Final Approach-Lock Down-Election 2018-Bob Davis Podcast 773.

What To Watch For In Each Time Zone On Election Night

Working our way west from Virginia and Florida, to the central and mountain time zones, all the way to the Pacific, I take a look at the headline elections. House, Senate and Governors. What will pick ups or holds for either mainline political party mean for the final tally?

Minnesota May Tell The Story

In conclusion I don’t know which way this election will turn but I can tell you what to look for as it happens. Listeners and Subscribers in Minnesota will be especially interested in the part of the podcast that deals with the Land Of Ten Thousand Lakes, because Minnesota has at least four nail biter elections, on which control of the House at least could rest.

Finally there are over one hundred ballot measures which could effect voter turn out in some key states. For a complete state by state list, go here.

(Editor’s Note: Another number thrown about for Democrat control of the House is 23. My calculations say they need 25 seats. Some say 26 to cement control of the chamber. For political watchers, if Democrats gain up to 23 seats before the end of the night on November 6th 2018, a majority is pretty much guaranteed at that point).

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

 

Final Approach-Lock Down-Election 2018-Bob Davis Podcast 773

 

Fireside Election Update-2018 Races Tighten-Bob Davis Podcast 769

Is the media is setting America up for another surprise on election night 2018? Learn more in Fireside Election Update-2018 Races Tighten-Bob Davis Podcast 769.

A Podcast Series On The Elections

I did a series of nine podcasts examining most of the toss up elections for 2018. To hear them go here. These days it amazes me that a lowly local podcaster can conduct an analysis envisioning what media jackals will talk about in the future. In fact that is what has happened.

Blue Wave Theory Challenged

Especially relevant are several house and senate contests which were supposed to be part of the ‘blue wave theory’. Moreover what seemed like a win in a walk for democrats have now become hotly contested challenges. Find out why in Fireside Election Update-2018 Races Tighten-Bob Davis Podcast 769.

In addition I’ll tell you how I did that series on the toss ups and how you can do the same thing.

They Were Always Close Elections

I have said all along that these elections were going to be close. Now major news organizations like CBS, the New York Times, Fox News and even Politico are suggesting republicans could win the midterms. What happened? Find out in Fireside Election Update-2018 Races Tighten-Bob Davis Podcast 769.

Non Partisan Analysis

Finally my podcasts on the midterm elections have been non partisan. That is, I don’t pick sides and I don’t make predictions. Because the media is so committed to predicting the future, it is missing some key stories.

Talk About Issues and Concerns Fireside

What about so called Pivot Counties? Will an improving employment and economic picture in Ohio, Wisconsin, Texas and Florida influence votes? What about traditional voting patterns in midterms? What about traditional advantages for the democratic party? All that and more in Fireside Election Update-2018 Races Tighten-Bob Davis Podcast 769.

In conclusion, by all means work for your party and your candidate. And vote.

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating and Reliafund Payment Processors

Fireside Election Update-2018 Races Tighten-Bob Davis Podcast 769

2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752

Most people these days don’t dial into elections until after Labor Day. I’m doing a series of podcasts to get you updated on all the so called ‘toss up’ races. Learn more about the Governor’s races in 2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752.

Old Saws Predict Races?

Moreover pundits and statisticians are hell bent for leather to tell you who’s going to win every race. Most noteworthy are the ‘old saws’ of politics. Predictions based on truisms and sayings.

You’re Right Until You’re Wrong

Maybe these old ways of predicting outcomes combined with new data are right. My experience is, they’re right until they’re wrong. I’ll explain in 2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752.

Let The People Decide

Also I believe people should be able to make decisions about who they think is going to win, and who to vote for, without being told who’s going to win three months before election day. Wouldn’t you like to hear some information about this elections without someone telling you who’s going to win? That’s what I do in 2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752.

Local Or National?

For example we’re told that national issues are driving all the races in the 2018 Midterm Elections. Is this true? Or is it possible local issues may be central? In some states taxes and budgets. In others, mining vs environment and business versus agriculture.

States Are Bigger Than You Think

One thing I’ve learned traveling back and forth across this country on two lane roads is the individual states of these United States are very diverse and a lot larger than they look on a map. How does this fact impact the race? Find out in 2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752.

Too Close To Call? Check Again

Finally how many of these races are actually ‘toss ups’. How many contests between gubernatorial candidates really are too close to call? You might be surprised at the answer.

Red or Blue May Not Be

In conclusion the experts say the number of states under partisan party control is important. States are either ‘blue’ or ‘red’. Are all republicans and democrats created equal? Or is the truth somewhere in the middle?

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752

Podcast 569-Final State by State Round Up

Podcast 569-Final State by State Round Up. Where the state polls stand for presidential candidates right before election day 2016. This podcast does not endorse a candidate. I will not make you feel good or bad about your vote, or non vote. I will not attach ‘indexes’ and ‘percentage probabilities’ to potential wins or losses for the candidates. In Podcast 569-Final State by State Round Up, how candidates fare in each of the states according to existing polls. Partisan and advocacy journalists don’t provide insight on survey research. I do. What you’re getting from the cable news channels and advocacy news ‘websites’ are charlatans pushing their point of view. Fact is, no one knows how the election will play out in any of the so called battleground states. That’s because despite all the best effort, even the best political researchers are challenged to determine who is actually going to show up to vote especially when the polls show a close vote, within the margins of error. Elections are made on who votes. Not the number of signs. Not the number of people who show up at rallies. Not who ran the best TV spots. It’s all about getting the vote out. Once the vote is in, it’s all about counting. Is the election rigged? In a sense, yes. The United States is a representative republic which elects its executive not by the popular vote but through an institution known as the Electoral College. Some states’ electoral slates are proportionally chosen. Some states select electoral slates by party. The electors themselves have already been chosen. They will actually select the President of the United States on December 15th, 2016. In some states the popular vote determines how the electors are ‘supposed’ to vote. In some states it depends on which party’s candidate wins the overall vote. No so called ‘rogue elector‘ has ever been prosecuted for voting outside the state statute guidelines. In the event of an electoral tie, the election will be decided by the US House of Representatives. One thing is true, the republicans are the ones talking about ‘rigged’ elections right now, but if Donald Trump wins the presidency they’ll stop talking about that immediately and the democrats will start talking about things being ‘rigged’. The only thing coverage of these kinds of conspiracies do is reduce the faith Americans and the rest of the world has in the electoral process. In reality, ‘rigging’ a national election is a difficult task, despite what movies and conspiracy theorists say. If you are concerned about your candidate winning the election, the best thing you can do is turn off the TV and get out and help them win by driving people to the polls or making last minute calls, poll watching, or if you’re qualified, volunteering as an election judge. Thankfully we’ll be looking at election night results in the next podcast. Sponsored by Hydrus Performance and Brush Studio, in the West End, Saint Louis Park.

Podcast 566-BobDavisRadioShow-50

Podcast 566-BobDavisRadioShow-50. October final State By State Poll roundup. Podcast 566-BobDavisRadioShow-50 covers the hysteria around polling these days and what to watch for in the final two weeks of campaigning. Charlatans abound in the political world. Almost everyone telling you one candidate, or the other, is going to win has a hidden agenda. Some want to make themselves famous. Some are shilling for a candidate. Ignorance on what political research actually is has now commingled with Trump’s claims the polls and thus the election are rigged. My response to a subscriber email about push polls is typical. Someone, somewhere talked about push polls so now everyone thinks the polls are push polls. Or, the John Podesta email suggesting internal polling over same democrats has everyone convinced all the pollsters are in the tank for Clinton. Sigh. The polls used on Real Clear Politics, and the polls I use for Podcast 566-BobDavisRadioShow-50 are polls taken by media organizations or university political science departments. A push poll is a poll designed to ‘push’ a respondent into voting one way or another. Usually there is very little polling data collected in so called Push Polls. Are the polls right? A good poll isn’t right or wrong, it is reliable. Listen to this show and you’ll know more about polling than anyone on your block. Listen to the other podcasts about polling I have done and you’ll understand more about what is going on. First, it is not a popular vote that elects the President of the United States. The US Election is an electoral affair so all the action is in the state by state polls. You can aggregate these polls. You can average these polls. However, you cannot aggregate and average them and place a probability on whether one or the other candidate will win. All the poll averaging does is give you a birds eye view of the battlefield. The must win electoral states change election cycle to election cycle. No predictions will be made here. I will give you a truthful and honest analysis of where the mainline campaigns stand on the eve of election day, 2016. Sponsored by Hydrus Performance, Ryan Plumbing and X Government Cars.

Podcast 554-Latest Election State By State Polls

Podcast 554-Latest Election State By State Polls. For you political junkies, which includes me, it’s been a month since the last analysis of political polls state by state, and I promised another one at the end of September, 2016. If you want to compare the two state by state poll podcasts to really get a sense of movement check out Podcast 541. I do not intend to analyze the debate. I will not tell you who won the debate. I will not tell you whether people pay attention to the debates. None of the current state by state polls were taken after the debates so they do not reflect the effects on either candidate of the debates. With this in mind, over 80 million people watched the September 26th debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. The next state-by-state poll roundup podcast at the end of October will show what effect – if any – the debates may or may not have had. The biggest change between this podcast and the podcast in late August is that there are now more ‘toss up’ states — that is states with poll averages for president within the margin of error. In Podcast 554-State By State Polls, I am drawing on data from Real Clear Politics. Follow the link directly to an interactive electoral map of the United States and follow along, or may your own map. The tightening could be knock on effects from Clinton’s bad week of September 11th, or it could just be due to more polls closer to the election, when respondents start paying attention and are more likely to give responses. You’ll have to listen for my conclusions about whether more toss up states mean anything, but for the most part, both candidates are within the margins in 2012 and 2008 in the states they lead, or are trading leads. The big questions remain Florida, Ohio, Pennsyvania, Virginia, and to a lesser extent North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, and western states like Colorado, Arizona and Nevada. This is a state by state electoral election, so the national polls don’t matter, and the snap polls on who won the debate don’t matter. All that matters is the candidate’s performance, and get out the vote efforts for them in key electoral states. Listen and learn the state by state strongholds, battlegrounds, advantages and disadvantages, roughly a month out. We’ll come back at the end of October and again just before the election in early November, and see how the campaigning, media, and news events have changed the political landscape. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing of Saint Paul.

Podcast 548

What’s Wrong With Hillary? Breaking News means a walk and talk podcast. At issue? Hillary Clinton collapses again, this time after leaving a 9-11 memorial event because of ‘heat exhaustion’. Her departure was so unanticipated she had to wait for the limo, and while waiting could not stand without help, then collapsed while trying to get in. On the heels of a coughing fit on her own airplane during the first press conference she’s held in weeks, coughing fits, weird reactions to questions and lots of conspiracy theorists opining about what ails her, now the mainstream media will be asking What’s Wrong With Hillary? Her doctors say she has walking pneumonia. Others say she suffers from the knock on effects of a blood clot on the brain from a fall when she was Secretary of State. I have some experience with this, since my own father had a blood clot on the brain and I can tell you the knock on effects aren’t good. Regardless of what is wrong with her, whether anything is wrong with her, whether a release of her medical records will make any difference at this point, 60 days from the general election former Secretary Hillary Clinton’s health is now being questioned. Not good for any presidential campaign, and very not good for a campaign which has had issues with transparency since the get go. Subscribers to The Bob Davis Podcasts have been warned repeatedly not to put stock in national polls. Watch what happens now as the media touts a new poll showing Clinton up by 5, taken before the latest health episode. Watch state by state polls in the coming weeks for the real story. Ohio, Florida, Georgia, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada have all been placed in the ‘toss up’ category, and Trump now leads by a point or so in a few of those key races as the numbers tighten up. Another major story impacting now is the bond markets and the Federal Reserve. The stock market dropped more than three hundred points last week in a nasty correction. A health scare for the democratic candidate is one thing. A health scare for the world economy is quite another. Fasten your seats belts – again – election 2016 is getting more and more interesting, even if the potential outcome either way is a horror show. Sponsored by Hydrus Performance and X Government Cars.

Podcast 543-Bob Davis Podcasts Radio Show-41

Podcast 543-Bob Davis Podcasts Radio Show-41. All new content for this week’s radio show. I devoted some time in Podcast 541 to the state by state polls. So, for the radio show, rather than excerpt segments from that podcast, given the fact that new polls are being taken almost daily, I decided to do an all new radio show with updates where applicable for the state by state polls. As I said in previous podcasts, the election of the president in the United States is not a popular vote affair. When you vote for an individual candidate, you are voting for a slate of electors, already chosen by the state parties, controlled by state election law. These are the people who actually vote for the president. While no elector has ever been prosecuted for voting their conscience so to speak, there have been faithless electors. And as much crap as the electoral system takes, there have only been two elector incidents in our history. Both of these happened in the early days of the republic (1796 and 1800) when the system called for the ‘runner up’ for president to be the vice president. Florida in 2000 was not an electoral college issue, since the electoral college had not voted. Florida in 2000 was a local vote counting issue that was litigated all the way up to the US Supreme Court, which ended up deciding the issue for George W. Bush. The US is a representative republic, not a direct democracy. Both parties want to tinker with the electoral college. Hillary Clinton has said we should amend the constitution to abolish the electoral college. Republicans want to tinker with it by pushing something called the ‘National Popular Vote’ which is essentially slaving all fifty states’ electoral votes to the popular vote in that state. Currently 29 states require the electors to vote for the winner of the popular vote. If the 2016 cycle leaves us with any impression, it is that mob rule in politics is not a good thing. My preference is to go back to letting the electors be the electors, and by the way, to letting state legislatures appoint US Senators as well. So, given the electoral factor in the US presidential election, focusing on national popularity polls is pretty much a waste of time. At this time, State by State polls do not paint a pretty picture for Republican Donald Trump, or even for the Republican effort to hold the US Senate. Republicans don’t like to hear bad news but there it is. Can Trump pull it out? Yes, but listen to the podcast to find out where he has to put his efforts in the next few weeks before the election. Whether you think of the starting gun as the primary season, the conventions, Labor Day or two weeks before election day, the Republicans are the underdogs at this point in time and they have their work cut out for them, all in this brand new Podcast 543-Bob Davis Podcasts Radio Show-41. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul and Karow Contracting.

Podcast 541

Podcast 541. Electoral College Yoga. Get ready to twist your brain into pretzel like shapes as I talk about the electoral college, polls, and what the benchmarks for Election 2016 are so far. I’ll do another benchmark in about a month and one just before the election in late October, or early November. There are a lot of caveats on polling data. While most media people and their viewers seem to want to talk about national presidential preference polls, the proof of the pudding is in the state by state polls. The United States does not elect its presidents with a national vote. In fact, a presidential election is fifty state elections. Voters are selecting a slate of electors, chosen and voting generally according to state law and state party rules. So when you hear one candidate is ‘ahead’ over another in a national poll it really doesn’t mean anything. In 2008 and again in 2012 Republicans in particular were so hopeful based on national preference polls that if you said McCain or Mitt Romney wasn’t going to win, you were ‘raining on the parade’. But, if you looked closely at state polls in those election cycles, the outcome was not a surprise. State polls have their own problems; Smaller sample size, different polling methodologies, and in some states they are no polls until just before the election. While its not advisable to compare different polls of different sources and methodologies, we do it all the time. We’re looking for trends primarily. Currently while Donald J. Trump leads Hillary Clinton in a national presidential preference poll, the state polls tell a completely different story. It’s not a good story for republicans. The case isn’t closed. Trump still has time, but time is fleeting. I don’t support any candidate. I’m not working for any candidate. I’m not going to tell you how to vote. I’m also not going to spin the polling data to make you think something can happen, or is going to happen. If you want the straight talk on what’s going on, the Bob Davis Podcasts is the place to check back for these benchmark state-by-state analyses as we progress to Election Day 2016. Sponsored by Karow Contracting and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul.