Battleground States Too Close To Call
Firstly it may be a surprise to some but the battleground states are too close to call. Secondly these days pundits follow each other. They strive to make predictions. Learn why I say this in Battlegrounds-Too-Close-To-Call-Bob Davis Podcast 955.
Media Setting Up False Expectations
Why Do We Play The Game?
Finally I believe we play the game to find out who wins. We don’t call the winner before the game starts.
USA Has No Direct Presidential Election
It should certainly go without saying but we do not directly elect presidents in the United States.
Media Obsessed With Popular Vote
Therefore a media obsessed with national polls and performance ratings is setting us all up.
What I Don’t Do
I don’t do national polls. In addition I don’t talk about approval ratings or name recognition. Reporting on the betting tallies for the election is also out.
Don’t Use The Term ‘Accurate’
To go further we do not use the term ‘accurate’ when discussing polling. I am only concerned with whether the poll’s methodology and structure is reliable.
Swing States Have More Balanced Party Vote and Are Electoral Vote Rich
Swing States Decide
To clarify the states that will decide the presidency are these states.
In the same vein I check the polls in these key states everyday and I keep seeing the same result. Certainly there are ebbs and flows when it comes to preference but overall it remains a very close election.
Standard Deviation and Point Spreads
For example even though one candidate might appear to have a 3 point, 5 point or more lead it doesn’t mean the other candidate couldn’t close that lead and win with a very small plurality on election day. In addition some polls consistently over estimate support for either the democrat or republican candidate.
Ties and Damn Ties
Unfortunately and most importantly our media doesn’t seem to understand that in survey research, two, three, five and sometimes six points, could actually be a statistical tie.
Yep. Too Close To Call
Therefore too close to call.
It is by no means decided because it’s too close to call in the battleground states.
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Battlegrounds-Too-Close-To-Call-Bob Davis Podcast 955