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The 2018 Midterm election season has been most noteworthy for its twists and turns. Now as we head into the final month of the campaigns, find out what to look for on election day in 2018 Toss Up Elections-Final Thoughts-Podcast 758.
Then there’s the media’s habit of cherry picking statistics. They call it ‘political coverage’. Statistics prove the story line. Damn lies convince us none of this has ever happened before.
The president’s approval rating has never been worse. Voters have never been more fired up. If things continue the way they are now, terrible outcomes are inevitable. The president’s political party always loses seats in a midterm. Are these predictions of doom true? Learn more in 2018 Toss Up Elections-Final Thoughts-Podcast 758.
Finally, in my experience making predictions about statewide and house elections based on national polls and baselines is problematic although some research suggests they may be reliable predictors in midterm elections. There just isn’t enough information to say one way or another what will happen. That’s why we wait and see what the vote actually turns out to be.
Meanwhile these days we’re awash in labels and broadly held beliefs in pure nonsense. So and so is a “transformational figure”. A “disaster” has changed voting in a district or state forever.
I believe it’s time to change how we cover politics and I am putting my podcasts where my mouth is in this series on the midterm election toss ups. A close look at the data. A fair shake for the candidates. Letting the listeners and subscribers decide for themselves. Putting all the data in the podcasts so you can compare on election night. That’s what it’s all about for The Bob Davis Podcasts for Election 2018 coverage.
In conclusion, through all of it, I have to say I have no idea what will happen on November 6th, 2018, and neither does anyone else.
That’s up to you.
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Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 44:44 — 102.4MB) | Embed
What kind of a news environment are we in these days? A video of a TV reporter struggling against hurricane winds while people walk calmly behind him has gone viral. ‘Fake Wind’ is the latest example of how media covers ‘news’. Are they off base when it comes to politics? Find out in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 5-Podcast 757.
At the conclusion of this series I have reviewed specific data for Senate, Governors and House elections considered ‘toss ups’ in 2018. Especially relevant is the question of what actual polling data exists, facts about the district and candidates in each of these elections.
These podcasts include much of what I learned. Now you have the same information I have in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 5-Podcast 757.
I’ll do a final analysis in the next podcast. In addition there will be no predictions. No campaigning for a candidate. I think it is very difficult right now given the facts to make predictions about what will happen on November 6th 2018. That’s why they call them ‘close’ elections. You have to wait and see what the outcome will be.
These toss up districts and statewide races are all over the country. There are older and younger people running. Men and Women. There are good democrat and republican candidates and a few libertarians and constitution party folks too. Moreover there are some truly funny characteristics to some of the candidates and situations in these districts.
Finally, guess what every election depends on? Who votes. It’s that simple.
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Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 35:31 — 81.3MB) | Embed
As I do the last two podcasts in the toss up series at the Bob Davis Podcasts, more predictions of a democrat wave are most notable. Are these predictions true? We’ll find out in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756.
In addition to commentators AP reported this week that republican pollsters are telling top republicans they’re in for a shellacking in November.
As a mission of the Bob Davis Podcasts I have been looking at those elections deemed ‘toss ups’ by the experts.
Especially relevant is the idea behind the mission. No predictions. Non partisan. What is the situation in these key districts in the final weeks of the election. Readers, subscribers and listeners might be surprised to learn very few public polls exist. Conventional wisdom drives most of these predictions. I detail this for each toss up in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756.
From North Carolina to Texas in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756. Toss up races are simply close elections for whatever reason. Moreover most US House elections are in solid democrat or republican districts. This year some say there are more than 40 districts that will be close. Why they’re close is key.
In some cases the district is an open seat because of retirements. In other cases, the contours of the district’s geography have changed. What was once a solid republican or democrat district is now supposedly more ‘balanced’.
Finally the real question in the 2018 midterms is whether people will vote their opinions of the president or local concerns. The old saying goes, everyone hates congress but not their congressman.
In conclusion I spent a fair amount of time not only looking through the data for these districts but also watching some of the internet and TV ads for candidates. Sometimes it’s hard to tell the republican from the democrat. This is not a one size fits all election even though the media would have its viewers believe it is.
Once I finish this series in this podcast, and the next, I’ll do one more podcast with my analysis since there isn’t much time for that in these podcasts dealing with individual districts.
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Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 44:16 — 101.3MB) | Embed
A series of podcasts dedicated to the so called toss up races for the Senate, Governors and House in 2018’s Midterm Election. Most notable in Part 3 are Minnesota’s toss ups. Find out why in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755.
These days podcasters can dive deep by doing a series of podcasts on one subject. One of my missions at the Bob Davis Podcasts is to provide the antidote to the prattling and predictions.
So I am diving deep!
It’s especially relevant that I am reviewing the data and details about states and districts for this series. One of my takeaways is what political scientists and commentators view as a toss up is entirely up to their judgement.
One man’s toss up is another man’s lean republican, or lean democrat.
My issue is these predictions create their own story lines. These ‘predictions’ can influence voters negatively.
This year the story line is republicans will lose the House and Senate and some Governorships because of the antics of President Donald Trump. Is this true?
Learn more in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755.
In 2018 Minnesotans elect a Governor, two Senators and eight Congressman. There are also contested statewide races like Attorney General and State Auditor. Moreover Senator Tina Smith is running in her first election after Governor Dayton appointed her to the Senate. We have a lot going on in our state.
Finally so called experts say there are four toss up races in Minnesota this year. Two democrat and two traditionally republican House districts.
Find out if I think it is true in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755.
In conclusion I don’t make predictions or try to make the data ‘lean’ on way or another. I don’t make judgements based on rumors in these districts. I give you the existing data on the district and let you make your own prediction.
Bottom line, if you listen to this series of podcasts on election night, you’ll know where to look and what races to watch to make an informed prediction about the election’s outcome and what it may or may not mean.
(Editor’s Note: Heads up if you’re using Ballotpedia to check presidential voting stats for individual house districts. One set of data in particular has caused problems for me. A drop down chart purporting to show house election results by HOUSE district is in fact by STATE HOUSE district, In the case of the second district this showed a huge advantage for Trump. It is only in state HOUSE districts, apparently and not overall. A similar chart from the Daily Koz, ON the Daily Koz shows actual house districts and a much closer result. Still a win for Trump in the 2nd in 2016. Despite this update, I still feel the toss up race in 2018 will be in Minnesota’s 3rd district. I did not use this data set for every house race. I don’t think it changes whether a district leans one way or another or is a toss up since I based my analysis on other factors.)
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Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 39:00 — 89.3MB) | Embed
Second in a series of podcasts detailing the so called toss up races in the 2018 midterm elections. Most noteworthy here are my observations about whether many of these elections are actually toss ups. Find out why I say this in Toss Up House Elections 2018 Part 2-Bob Davis Podcast 754.
From Iowa, to Illinois. Kansas to Kentucky in this podcast you’ll find out why the media says the future of Donald Trump’s administration hangs in the balance. You’ll also find out whether the predicted ‘blue wave’ could be reality. Or not.
As I have said many times, one of the things our media loves to do these days is predict the future, The reason I am producing this series of podcasts is to give you the existing conditions in each of these districts without partisan comment or predictions. This series includes the Senate toss ups, and the Governor’s toss ups and part one of the house toss ups.
How close is the race in Illinois’ northwestern suburbs that make up the 6th district? What about all the predictions about 12th district which stretches from the working class Saint Louis suburbs across the river, all the way to the southern tip of the Land of Lincoln? Especially relevant here are predictions about Kentucky’s 6th district, which the president won by 17 points. When a candidate for president wins a state by over twenty points, is there a potential for backlash? Learn more in Toss Up House Elections 2018 Part 2-Bob Davis Podcast 754.
These days it doesn’t matter whether you’re on network television or You Tube. If you have a national talk radio show or are a podcaster. Everyone wants to tell the voter what’s going to happen before it happens. If you listen to this series of my podcasts you’ll know the situation in these districts. You’ll know what races to watch on election night.
Once the voters decides for themselves who their voting for on election night, they can sit back and watch the results knowing what races to look for. Why? Because someone looked at all the key races and without partisanship or rancor laid out what the situation is.
Finally, many of these districts have no polling unless its done by partisan groups or political parties. Predictions are being made based on the 2016 election or because one party or another said they were ‘targeting’ that race. In conclusion our politics are too fluid for political fortune tellers to be accurate.
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Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 39:55 — 91.4MB) | Embed
