Battlegrounds-Too-Close-To-Call-Bob Davis Podcast 955

Battleground States Too Close To Call

Firstly it may be a surprise to some but the battleground states are too close to call. Secondly these days pundits follow each other. They strive to make predictions. Learn why I say this in Battlegrounds-Too-Close-To-Call-Bob Davis Podcast 955.

Media Setting Up False Expectations

More importantly for the country, these commentators are setting up false expectations.

Above all this has been a consistent feature of my podcasts regarding polling in swing states, since January 2020.

Why Do We Play The Game?

Finally I believe we play the game to find out who wins. We don’t call the winner before the game starts.

USA Has No Direct Presidential Election

It should certainly go without saying but we do not directly elect presidents in the United States.

Media Obsessed With Popular Vote

Therefore a media obsessed with national polls and performance ratings is setting us all up.

What I Don’t Do

I don’t do national polls. In addition I don’t talk about approval ratings or name recognition. Reporting on the betting tallies for the election is also out.

Above all I do not care who wins this election. So it’s easier for me to analyze poll results where they matter.

Don’t Use The Term ‘Accurate’

To go further we do not use the term ‘accurate’ when discussing polling. I am only concerned with whether the poll’s methodology and structure is reliable.

Swing States Have More Balanced Party Vote and Are Electoral Vote Rich

When it comes to the selection of the president in short, the battle is in electoral vote rich states with more balanced voting histories. In other words not all one thing.

Swing States Decide

To clarify the states that will decide the presidency are these states.

Still Close

In the same vein I check the polls in these key states everyday and I keep seeing the same result. Certainly there are ebbs and flows when it comes to preference but overall it remains a very close election.

Standard Deviation and Point Spreads

For example even though one candidate might appear to have a 3 point, 5 point or more lead it doesn’t mean the other candidate couldn’t close that lead and win with a very small plurality on election day. In addition some polls consistently over estimate support for either the democrat or republican candidate.

Ties and Damn Ties

Unfortunately and most importantly our media doesn’t seem to understand that in survey research, two, three, five and sometimes six points, could actually be a statistical tie.

Yep. Too Close To Call

Therefore too close to call.

To sum up this is a must listen podcast roughly thirty days away from November 3rd.

It is by no means decided because it’s too close to call in the battleground states.

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Battlegrounds-Too-Close-To-Call-Bob Davis Podcast 955


There-Is-Something-Going-On-Bob Davis Podcast 954

Have You Ever Felt Like There Is Something Going On?

Firstly have you ever felt like there is something going on? Something you can’t quite put a finger on. More importantly a feeling welling up from deep inside. That’s what There-Is-Something-Going-On-Bob Davis Podcast 954 is all about.

Feelings Rule In This Podcast

Second I know this is weird. Therefore this is not a ‘fact-based’ podcast. This is about feelings and trusting your feelings or intuition.

Wanting To Go!

Most importantly many people seem to have this instinctive urge to ‘get away’. To ‘Go’. So this podcast is for them.

Everyone Wants to Go To Ground

In addition real estate in rural and exurban areas is hot right now. Lots of houses in the city up for sale. RV’s sales and prices are through the roof.

All At Once

Seems like everyone wants to hit the road, move to the country. All at once.

Is There Something Going On?

Certainly this begs the question. Is this some kind of animal instinct. Like going to ground before an earthquake?

What Do We Do With Our Instincts?

Moreover do we listen to our instincts or rationalize them away? And, what happens when we do that?

Not Everyone Can Be A Nomad Or Buy A Farm

Meanwhile life goes on. Not everyone can become a nomad or buy a farm.

The Rational And The Sensitive

Finally some do not feel the urge at all.

Doesn’t Mean There Isn’t Something Going On

On the other hand if some feel it and some don’t one doesn’t invalidate the other.

Feel The Feels

In the same vein I’ll just say I feel this urge strongly.

Trouble Ahead

Even more, my instincts tell me there’s more trouble ahead and this might be what some people are reacting to.

Mayhem And Madness…Seem Normal Now

In the same vein, fill in the blank with whatever mayhem you think we might have to face.

2020 Is A Very Strange Year

Given what we have already dealt with in 2020, I don’t think anyone can say, “That’s not going to happen”, with any degree of confidence!

Strange Brew

In conclusion, I don’t know what I’ll do with these feelings.

Speak My Truth And Move On

Finally I do know that I can’t move on with my regular podcast schedule without getting this off my chest. That is what I do in There-Is-Something-Going-On-Bob Davis Podcast 954.

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There-Is-Something-Going-On-Bob Davis Podcast 954


No-News-Is-News-Bob Davis Podcast 953

No News IS News

These days the first thing to know is no news, IS the news. We’ll talk about it in No-News-Is-News-Bob Davis Podcast 953.

Objective Sources?

Most important for this walk and talk podcast is that some people think there are still ‘objective sources’.

Podcast Integration

First of I do walk and talk podcasts for a reason. These freewheeling podcasts are my way of integrating the ‘heavier’ podcasts I’ve done recently.


Walking and Talking is therapy for me.

Weirdest Election Ever

Secondly we’re less than 60 days away from what is sure to be one of the weirdest US elections in memory.

Poorly Served

As a result of walking and talking I hit upon the idea we’re still being poorly served by all kinds of media in this country.

Lies are Truth…Truth Is A Lie

Even more is the question of where people turn when the intent of every source is to convince, manipulate or spread lies as ‘truth’.

Pundits Addicted To Predicting

Above all my focus lately has been reporting on political polls. In No-News-Is-News-Bob Davis Podcast 953 I take a few shots at the so called pundits and their predictions.

Rediscovering The Battleground States

Certainly the media has recently rediscovered the so called ‘battleground states’. In recent elections, mostly located in the central US.

Bob Davis Podcasts Has Been In The Battlegrounds All Along

We’ve been discussing the battleground state polls exclusively since 2019. In addition, most of the media aren’t reporting those polls properly currently.

National Polls and Manipulation

Above all this is the place to get analysis on key state polls without the partisanship. In addition I don’t make predictions and I don’t care who ‘wins’ this election.


Finally as I think we’re in the midst of a political and social realignment. No one can tell you where that’s going to end up.

Something IS Wrong

For instance the feeling we all have something is wrong but we just can’t put our finger on what it is.

Walking Through A Late Summer Night

To sum up it’s always better to walk through a still late summer night and talk these things out.

That’s what a walk and talk is all about.

(Editor’s Note: I hate it when I have to do corrections, but this was a big mistake, so…Mentioned a Real Clear Politics metric which compares 2016 averages to 2020 averages between Hillary Clinton’s poll numbers then to Joe Biden’s now. I reversed those numbers. Biden is running about one point ahead of Clinton in the top battleground states and substantially better than the former Secretary of State in other metrics. However this doesn’t change how close the polls are overall in the battleground states. But given that I reversed the numbers, the analysis that Biden is running behind Clinton doesn’t work. All the more reason not to do analysis of the polls on the run in a walk and talk podcast.)

Sponsored by Kim Nybo Insurance

No-News-Is-News-Bob Davis Podcast 953