July-Fourth-Fireworks-Eclipse-Radio-Bob Davis Podcast 938

Fourth, Fireworks and Eclipse!

You don’t often get a July Fourth, Fireworks and an Eclipse all rolled together these days. Let’s enjoy it together in July-Fourth-Fireworks-Eclipse-Radio-Bob Davis Podcast 938.

Karen Ruins The Fourth

Firstly it seems to me like the scolds have ruined yet another holiday.

No Tedious History Lessons Here

What used to be an oasis of fun has been turned into a tedious history lesson.

Do Your Own Research

Secondly do your own research about our glorious or tawdry past. I’m certainly not going to waste your time.

Leaving The History Lessons Out This Year

Most importantly I leave the history lessons out in July-Fourth-Fireworks-Eclipse-Radio-Bob Davis Podcast 938.

The 1700’s. Yay! Now Back To The Fireworks!

Certainly I’ll share a few facts about the 1700’s. That’s about it.

Better To Share Stories Of Fourth’s Past

However I think it’s more fun to share some stories of fourths I remember as a kid. Even more fun to do it while the eclipse gets rolling and the kids shoot fireworks in the park.

Great American Detroit Rolling Steel

For example for some reason I seem to remember all the wonderful cars from back in the day in my stories. Giant hunks of American Steel.

Backyard Parties! Martinis! Beer! Coffee! Cigarettes!

In addition those backyard parties with my grandfather’s sales guys.

Best Memories Are Childhood Memories

Truth is to a kid, everything is bigger than life. Especially the smells. Martinis. Beer. Coffee. Cigarettes. Cigars. Even Perfume.

Nostalgia Beats Bitching and Moaning

Finally it sure seems to me like reminiscing is better therapy in today’s world, than bitching and moaning about interpretations of the signing of the declaration. Besides, those guys in the park have fireworks!

Nothing More American Than A Perfect Summer Night!

To sum up don’t forget! A perfect summer night. Fireworks. An eclipse. The entire neighborhood partying.

(Editor’s Note: Yes I do refer to the American Colonies circa 1776 as ‘The United States’. My mistake, but perhaps understandable considering the amount of fireworks in the background. Obviously we did not become These United States until after the ratification of the US Constitution in 1788, and the Bill of Rights later in 1790.)

What could be more American than that?

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July-Fourth-Fireworks-Eclipse-Radio-Bob Davis Podcast 938

Landslide-Mania-Updating-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 936

Mania For Biden Landslide

Above all as you know political polls don’t have a set schedule for release. With all the mania for a Biden Landslide lately plus the release of new polls it is time again to update my most recent podcast on polls in battleground states. We do it in Landslide-Mania-Updating-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 936.

Updates When Conditions Change

Firstly when you do a podcast based on current events you have to be prepared for updates when conditions change.

New Polls

Second a new spate of new polls of key states was released recently and they’re not good for the president.

Biden Leading In Some Battlegrounds

I think most importantly for the President, Joe Biden is taking the lead.

Parsing Key Polls

Therefore I will go through the key polls in the key states.

Arizona, Texas, North Carolina and Florida

Especially relevant is how the ground might be changing in Arizona, North Carolina, Texas and especially Florida.

Never Predict Outcomes

Certainly my approach is not to attach myself to outcomes or process. In the same vein it really bothers me to see commentators predicting certain outcomes.

Four Months Is A Long Time

In addition these polls show movement over time. Further we don’t know what might happen to benefit either candidate in the next four months. Think of how many things changed since the pandemic began just a short while ago.

Trump Running Uphill

But it is fair to say these polls strongly suggest President Trump is facing uphill battles in key electoral states.

Stringing Together Lights In The Dark

Finally I don’t like doing two of these kinds of podcasts in a row. However it is necessary to drive home the point the political landscape as measured by modern polling is a moving target. That is the whole point of Podcast 935, and Landslide-Mania-Updating-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 936.

Landslide or Nail Biter. Take Your Pick

In conclusion I think predictions of a landslide for Biden are irresponsible.

Potentially False Hope For Democrats and Pollsters

Not only do they give potentially false hope for democrats. Likewise they create the impression the polls are infallible predictors.

We all know how that ended in 2016.

And of course if the ground shifts, I’ll call it as I see it.

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Landslide-Mania-Updating-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 936

 

 

 

Art-Of-Politics-Polling-Prediction-Bob Davis Podcast 935

Updating Current Political Polls

Firstly Art-Of-Politics-Polling-Prediction-Bob Davis Podcast 935 is part of a series of podcasts updating current polls for 2020.

No Blanket Statements

Secondly I tend to avoid blanket statements when it comes to political polls.

Politics is An Art

Finally I believe despite all the technology we have politics is still an art.

No Silver Bullet For Predictions

Even more there is no application or spreadsheet that can ‘predict’ an outcome based on polls.

Probabilities

In short we can only look at probabilities.

Snapshots

Polls are snapshots in real time.

Shocking Confusion When It Comes To Polls

Meanwhile pundits and commentators continue to display a shocking confusion when it comes to understanding political polling.

Out and Out Bias

Most importantly some are ‘in the tank’ for one or the other candidate.

National Polls A Disservice To Supporters of Both Candidates

Consequently all of this political chatter and predictions does a disservice to supporters of all candidates.

Your Own Reality Check

On the other hand what if I can show you how to do your own reality check on your smart phone whenever you hear some wild prediction of a ‘landslide’ for either candidate.

That’s what Art-Of-Politics-Polling-Prediction-Bob Davis Podcast 935 is all about.

Still All About Showing Up

In conclusion if we have learned anything over the years, it is politics still belongs to those who show up.

State By State Battleground

Working hard down to the election is always the best approach. National polls are useless as the popular vote does not determine the presidency in the US.

Stay With The Bob Davis Podcasts

To sum up stay with me for a clear eyed view of the state by state polling results so that you’re not shocked and surprised on election night. Anything is possible, but right now it’s still a close race.

(Editor’s Note: As I recorded this podcast new polls were being released and results uploaded. As of the date of this post, the new polls have not changed my conclusion that 2020 will be close based on tight races in battleground states. I’ll do another podcast after the next spate of polls and we’ll see how things change. The good news is, if you listen to this podcast you’ll know how to update yourself when new polls come out.)

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Art-Of-Politics-Polling-Prediction-Bob Davis Podcast 935