Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756

As I do the last two podcasts in the toss up series at the Bob Davis Podcasts, more predictions of a democrat wave are most notable. Are these predictions true? We’ll find out in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756.

Shellacking

In addition to commentators AP reported this week that republican pollsters are telling top republicans they’re in for a shellacking in November.

As a mission of the Bob Davis Podcasts I have been looking at those elections deemed ‘toss ups’ by the experts.

Conventional Wisdom Is Right Until Wrong

Especially relevant is the idea behind the mission. No predictions. Non partisan. What is the situation in these key districts in the final weeks of the election. Readers, subscribers and listeners might be surprised to learn very few public polls exist. Conventional wisdom drives most of these predictions. I detail this for each toss up in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756.

Close Elections Don’t Always Mean Flips

From North Carolina to Texas in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756. Toss up races are simply close elections for whatever reason. Moreover most US House elections are in solid democrat or republican districts. This year some say there are more than 40 districts that will be close. Why they’re close is key.

Open Seats And Changing Geography

In some cases the district is an open seat because of retirements. In other cases, the contours of the district’s geography have changed. What was once a solid republican or democrat district is now supposedly more ‘balanced’.

Everyone Hates Congress…

Finally the real question in the 2018 midterms is whether people will vote their opinions of the president or local concerns. The old saying goes, everyone hates congress but not their congressman.

One Size Fits All Election?

In conclusion I spent a fair amount of time not only looking through the data for these districts but also watching some of the internet and TV ads for candidates. Sometimes it’s hard to tell the republican from the democrat. This is not a one size fits all election even though the media would have its viewers believe it is.

Once I finish this series in this podcast, and the next, I’ll do one more podcast with my analysis since there isn’t much time for that in these podcasts dealing with individual districts.

Sponsored by John D Scott Personal Injury Lawyer and the Water Butler Water Purification Systems

Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756

 

Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755

A series of podcasts dedicated to the so called toss up races for the Senate, Governors and House in 2018’s Midterm Election. Most notable in Part 3 are Minnesota’s toss ups. Find out why in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755.

Dive Deep

These days podcasters can dive deep by doing a series of podcasts on one subject. One of my missions at the Bob Davis Podcasts is to provide the antidote to the prattling and predictions.

So I am diving deep!

What IS a Toss Up?

It’s especially relevant that I am reviewing the data and details about states and districts for this series. One of my takeaways is what political scientists and commentators view as a toss up is entirely up to their judgement.

One man’s toss up is another man’s lean republican, or lean democrat.

Story Lines Are Click Bait and Influence Voters

My issue is these predictions create their own story lines. These ‘predictions’ can influence voters negatively.

This Year’s Story Line

This year the story line is republicans will lose the House and Senate and some Governorships because of the antics of President Donald Trump. Is this true?

Learn more in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755.

Minnesota Center Stage

In 2018 Minnesotans elect a Governor, two Senators and eight Congressman. There are also contested statewide races like Attorney General and State Auditor. Moreover Senator Tina Smith is running in her first election after Governor Dayton appointed her to the Senate. We have a lot going on in our state.

Finally so called experts say there are four toss up races in Minnesota this year. Two democrat and two traditionally republican House districts.

Find out if I think it is true in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755.

No Predictions No Partisanship

In conclusion I don’t make predictions or try to make the data ‘lean’ on way or another. I don’t make judgements based on rumors in these districts. I give you the existing data on the district and let you make your own prediction.

Listen To This Series. Know What To Watch For On Election Night

Bottom line, if you listen to this series of podcasts on election night, you’ll know where to look and what races to watch to make an informed prediction about the election’s outcome and what it may or may not mean.

(Editor’s Note: Heads up if you’re using Ballotpedia to check presidential voting stats for individual house districts. One set of data in particular has caused problems for me. A drop down chart purporting to show house election results by HOUSE district is in fact by STATE HOUSE district, In the case of the second district this showed a huge advantage for Trump. It is only in state HOUSE districts, apparently and not overall. A similar chart from the Daily Koz, ON the Daily Koz shows actual house districts and a much closer result. Still a win for Trump in the 2nd in 2016. Despite this update, I still feel the toss up race in 2018 will be in Minnesota’s 3rd district. I did not use this data set for every house race. I don’t think it changes whether a district leans one way or another or is a toss up since I based my analysis on other factors.)

Sponsored by The Water Butler Water Purification Systems and John D Scott Personal Injury Lawyer

Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755

Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 1-Bob Davis Podcast 753

Every two years the entire US House of Representatives has to run for election. The predictions of the prognosticators concerning these elections are most noteworthy. The sages say as many as 58 republican seats are in jeopardy. We’ll find out in a series of podcasts that examine each of these house races in detail. Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 1-Bob Davis Podcast 753.

Predictions Are Dangerous

I hate predictions, Moreover I find while the media loves to ‘nationalize’ house and senate elections most of the time they turn on local issues not the national issues. One of the reasons predictions are often be wrong.

Especially relevant, so many of these races are considered toss ups.

Calibrating The Crystal Ball

There’s only way to determine whether men staring into crystal balls can predict the future. You have to examine each district one at a time.

In part one we look at several districts in California, Colorado, and Florida. More are on the way.

Travel Makes Great Political Analysis

I am happy to say I have been to many of these districts in Mobile Podcast Command. ‘Just passing through’ doesn’t give you some gift for the truth but it does help to visualize. Because I travel I have additional knowledge that is invaluable when it comes to understanding what’s going on in some of these elections.

Pivot Counties Are Well…Pivotal

Similarly it helps to have visited to some of the so called ‘Pivot Counties‘ and to have traveled through areas these guys on TV probably have not seen recently, if ever. It all adds up to the realization that all politics really is local.

New Political Environment?

Because I traveled in 2016 I was able to to realize early on something different was brewing. I think we’re still in a new political environment. All the more reason not to avoid the tarot card readers on TV. Listen to Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 1-Bob Davis Podcast 753 instead.

No Predictions Just Information And a Baseline For You

While I won’t predict anything in 2018 I think it is fair to say we’re in a new environment politically in which almost anything can happen. Moreover whatever is happening may not show up in polls and primary election data.

Isn’t that what makes watching the outcome so much fun?

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Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 1-Bob Davis Podcast 753

2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752

Most people these days don’t dial into elections until after Labor Day. I’m doing a series of podcasts to get you updated on all the so called ‘toss up’ races. Learn more about the Governor’s races in 2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752.

Old Saws Predict Races?

Moreover pundits and statisticians are hell bent for leather to tell you who’s going to win every race. Most noteworthy are the ‘old saws’ of politics. Predictions based on truisms and sayings.

You’re Right Until You’re Wrong

Maybe these old ways of predicting outcomes combined with new data are right. My experience is, they’re right until they’re wrong. I’ll explain in 2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752.

Let The People Decide

Also I believe people should be able to make decisions about who they think is going to win, and who to vote for, without being told who’s going to win three months before election day. Wouldn’t you like to hear some information about this elections without someone telling you who’s going to win? That’s what I do in 2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752.

Local Or National?

For example we’re told that national issues are driving all the races in the 2018 Midterm Elections. Is this true? Or is it possible local issues may be central? In some states taxes and budgets. In others, mining vs environment and business versus agriculture.

States Are Bigger Than You Think

One thing I’ve learned traveling back and forth across this country on two lane roads is the individual states of these United States are very diverse and a lot larger than they look on a map. How does this fact impact the race? Find out in 2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752.

Too Close To Call? Check Again

Finally how many of these races are actually ‘toss ups’. How many contests between gubernatorial candidates really are too close to call? You might be surprised at the answer.

Red or Blue May Not Be

In conclusion the experts say the number of states under partisan party control is important. States are either ‘blue’ or ‘red’. Are all republicans and democrats created equal? Or is the truth somewhere in the middle?

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752

World Survives Eclipse-Western Wisconsin Road Trip-Podcast 742

Sometimes an eclipse is just an eclipse. Friday’s ‘Blood Moon Lunar Eclipse‘ did not destroy the world as predicted. These days someone needs to keep track of the soothsayers! We’ll talk about it in World Survives Eclipse-Western Wisconsin Road Trip-Podcast 742.

Best Economic Growth Ever!

Friday also marked the release of first quarter Gross Domestic Product numbers. To hear the president tell it, 4.1 percent economic growth is historic. Hear my take on the first blush of reporting on the good economic news in World Survives Eclipse-Western Wisconsin Road Trip-Podcast 742.

Does It Matter?

On a desolate lake road in Western Wisconsin at midnight, in the full moonlight, one wonders whether any of that matters anyway! What’s more the silence here in the middle of nowhere is incredible.

No Rules No Prep

I took a short road trip to what we like to call “God’s Country” to talk about organic farming. I’ll take that up in the next podcast. Every now and then I have to do walk and talk podcasts. No rules. No Prep. I call these ‘consolidation podcasts’.

A Midnight Walk Is Good For Making Sense Of It All

Because things seem to happen so frequently, following the news can be a head spinner. I do these walk and talk podcasts, usually at midnight, to try to make sense of it all.

News Flash! World Doesn’t End!

Furthermore last week the boomers were predicting the end of the world after the big eclipse. On top of that we are whipsawed by reactive coverage of the news. Getting subscribers and listeners to the Bob Davis Podcasts on track at the beginning of the week is one of my missions.

Good News Is Good News

Most noteworthy for this podcast is the release of the new economic data. 4.1 percent GDP growth in a single quarter is not unprecedented or even historic. It is good news. The key here is what caused the growth? Moreover is the growth sustainable?

Finding Truth At Midnight

In conclusion this week you may hear a lot of chatter about the economic numbers. Due to partisanship equal amount of chatter passing for ‘analysis’ will be negative and positive. Above all listeners wonder what to look for to find information without partisanship.

Sometimes you find a little bit of truth on a quiet country road in the mist and moonlight!

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

World Survives Eclipse-Western Wisconsin Road Trip-Podcast 742

 

Trump Foreign Trade Fight-Free Trade-Protection-Bob Davis Podcast 737

President Trump slapped tax increases on goods imported to the US from Europe, China, Mexico and Canada. Our trading partners retaliated with their own tariffs. Now what? Find out in Trump Foreign Trade Fight-Free Trade-Protection-Bob Davis Podcast 737.

What Is A Tariff Anyway?

Finally someone has defined what a tariff is. Moreover you might be surprised to learn the history of trade legislation in the United States goes back to 1789.

These days we are awash in charges and counter charges in the media. Trade Wars and Rumors of Trade Wars. This kind of coverage doesn’t serve anyone.

1945 Looms Large In Trade Discussions

Most noteworthy is the impact of World War 2 and the advent of nuclear weapons in 1945. Since then, trade deals have been  considered central to keeping the peace and stabilizing the world.

Trade Has Been A Political Football since Hamilton

Trade has been regional and national issue in the United States in every political era. None other than Alexander Hamilton was an advocate of high taxes on imports going back to 1789.

Trump A Throw Back To The 1840’s?

Moreover tariffs were an issue in local and national politics in the US until the introduction of the Income Tax in 1913. Is President Trump a throw back to the 1840’s? Find out in Trump Foreign Trade Fight-Free Trade-Protection-Bob Davis Podcast 737.

NAFTA China Mercantilism Free Trade

We hear so much in the news about trade but few of us understand it. China. NAFTA. Mercantilism. Trade Protection. Free Trade. As citizens we need to make informed decisions about what is best for each of us individually and the country. With all the noise about trade it’s almost impossible for people to do that.

Especially Relevant Today As It Was Back In The Day

In conclusion with yet another new trade bill in the offing the question of whether the US should protect its markets or open them is as relevant today as it was in 1789.

Sponsored by Reliafund Payment Processors and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

Trump Foreign Trade Fight-Free Trade-Protection-Bob Davis Podcast 737

Gettysburg-Real Cost of Civil War-Bob Davis Podcast 735

These days commentators use sexy titles for their blogs, articles and on-air commentary. It needs to be said sometimes these guys go too far. Find out how in Gettysburg-Real Cost of Civil War-Bob Davis Podcast 735.

Use ‘Civil War’ In Your SEO Title

Civil War‘ is working its way back into the current American political discourse because it sells.

At least three so called pundits recently suggested there will be ‘another Civil War’ if democrats don’t ‘win’ the midterm elections this year.

Battle Of Gettysburg

So it is most noteworthy we remember a Fourth of July in 1863.

During those days in 1863 men who spoke the same language killed and maimed more than fifty thousand of their fellow citizens. Get the details in Gettysburg-Real Cost of Civil War-Bob Davis Podcast 735.

One Million Killed

Especially relevant; the bloodletting went on for two more years. Our real Civil War was a disaster for this country. It took one hundred years for the American South to begin to fully recover. We are still dealing with the aftermath of that war in this country. One million people were killed when we the whole country had a population of only 31 million. In terms of population our most costly war.

All because politicians couldn’t solve a problem.

War Is Not A Protest

War is not a protest. It is not an expression of outrage. A sit in. Blocking the highway. Civil War isn’t a bunch of people shouting someone out of a restaurant or refusing to bake a cake.

War Means Killing

War is a state of armed conflict. In war the most ruthless combatant eliminates his enemy’s will to fight. This is done by killing or maiming as many of the so called enemy as possible, and destroying the means of production. People and property do not do well in war. Worse in a civil war.

Civil War Is No Joke

Civil War is much more bloody than a conflict between sovereign state actors.

In short, civil war is no joke.

Outrage

It is an outrage for talk show hosts and pundits to suggest we in the United States are already in a state of Civil War. It’s folly that honest disagreements about policy and personalities are characterized in such a lazy and irresponsible manner.

Chaos Would Be The Norm

If we did have another civil war in America the cost would be enormous

Chaos would be the norm throughout the world.

In conclusion I can only ask those who like to say we’re ‘in a civil war’…

Is this the world you want to bequeath to your children?

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

Gettysburg-Real Cost of Civil War-Bob Davis Podcast 735

Trump-Cognitive-Dissonance-Chaos-On-Border-Pure-Genius-Podcast-733

Time to talk about the elephant in the room. These days Trump gets better and better at causing a hurricane then standing in the eye of the storm. Find out why in Trump-Cognitive-Dissonance-Chaos-On-Border-Pure-Genius-Podcast-733.

Children Detained Since 2014

First of all everyone now knows some details about the children of illegal immigrants being detained at the border. Pictures of children in cells from the Obama era have been around since 2014. At the root of these detainments is something called ‘Flores‘.

Trump Promises Trump Delivers

President trump made two promises specific to Immigration during his 2016 campaign. Trump said he wanted to build a wall on the southern border and that he would enforce immigration laws if he became president.

Media Firestorm

Due to enforcement efforts and the courts, there’s a new batch of kids on the border. Welcome to the latest media firestorm.

Plenty of Blame To Go Around

While there are two sides to every story there’s plenty of blame to go around on this one. Find out why in Trump-Cognitive-Dissonance-Chaos-On-Border-Pure-Genius-Podcast-733.

A Public Relations Nightmare? Not So Fast

Democrats and Republicans agree on one thing. This is a travesty and a public relations nightmare for the US. Is it the same for the president?

Finally Trump retreated and used his favorite means of ‘legislation’. He issued an executive order, to keep detained families together.

Another Trump Stunt

Especially relevant here are officials within the Trump administration who have argued for years this kind of stunt is just what the doctor ordered to get congress to act.

Immigration Law And Texas History

In Trump-Cognitive-Dissonance-Chaos-On-Border-Pure-Genius-Podcast-733 some history of immigration law and the southern US Border in Texas. In addition some details on the ‘Flores Decision’ which is central to this issue.

How Would We Solve This?

More important, what do we think of this issue as citizens? How would we solve this problem? Most noteworthy is the fact that Americans do not agree on this issue. At all.

Cognitive Dissonance

Finally, these kinds of stunts on both sides of the so called political divide don’t solve anything. This is what Trump wants. When you add emotion to the mix no matter what new information comes to light, people only fight harder for their original position.

Midterm Elections

Republican voters don’t care about their local candidates in the midterm elections. They care about Donald Trump. My sense is the president figures whatever it takes to get the so called republican core off their asses and to the polls is good enough. Besides, we’ll all forget about kids in jails after the next stunt, coming to a television near you soon.

Trump In The Eye Of A Storm He Created

In the final analysis, this kind of thing works politically, until it doesn’t. Trump can stand in the eye of the storm. He can be proud of not knowing all the details, until one of these days he causes a real crisis.

Until then. Enjoy the party.

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul and Reliafund Payment Processors

Trump-Cognitive-Dissonance-Chaos-On-Border-Pure-Genius-Podcast-733

 

 

 

 

Colorado Marijuana Legalization-Results-Strange Political Bedfellows-Joshua Kappel-Podcast 730

Due to legal weed in many states, Legal Recreational Marijuana is coming to your town or state. As a result, a position on weed may not define a party loyalty. Hear what the movers and shakers behind Colorado’s legalization effort say. Download Colorado Marijuana Legalization-Results-Strange Political Bedfellows-Joshua Kappel-Podcast 730 now.

Politicians Love This Issue

If you’re a politician looking for an issue that cuts across demographic and party lines, weed is the ticket.

Especially relevant is the fact that legalization starts with medical applications. Moreover as with any new law, problems, opportunities and benefits resulted. Get informed in Colorado Marijuana Legalization-Results-Strange Political Bedfellows-Joshua Kappel-Podcast 730.

Roving bands of stoned hippies are not invading suburbia

Colorado enjoys very low unemployment and is collecting more tax from cannabis sales. Roving bands of stoned hippies are not invading suburbia. The sky has not fallen. Check it out in Colorado Marijuana Legalization-Results-Strange Political Bedfellows-Joshua Kappel-Podcast 730.

So Far It’s Working

Because of Amendment 64, Colorado now enjoys low unemployment. The state is also collecting more tax revenue from cannabis sales. Finally, many in Colorado view the law as a win-win. Much as opponents predicted the worst outcomes the opposite has happened. Most of all lower regulation has led to lower prices and free market advocates love that!

In addition Trump, like Obama, has not enforced federal marijuana laws. Will weed retailers will run afoul of federal banking laws? Furthermore what happens if the federal government decides to raid pot farms in Colorado? Maybe the reason the Feds haven’t done this is they don’t want to challenge the tenth amendment?

Strange Bedfellows

Probably most interesting are the strange political bedfellows this issue creates. Republicans and Democrats working together? Republican congressional candidates advocating for repealing federal drug laws? Law and Order pols pushing for legalizing weed?

Legal Weed Is Coming

As a result, legal weed is coming. Many states already have medical marijuana laws. Moreover polls show fewer opposed to legalization. And more studies show the medical benefits of certain cannabis products. Finally considering the problems created by alcohol abuse, there’s no question which is a better heath bet.

Hard Pressed To Find A Reason Not To

In conclusion I’m pretty hard pressed to find a reason why marijuana should still be illegal. Maybe even drugs like Special K and low dose LSD have their applications. Especially relevant are drugs you get from your doctor which seem even more dangerous than some so called ‘street drugs’.

Restrictive Laws No One Obeys

Most of all I don’t know why anyone drinks or uses drugs. In a perfect world no one should do either. Thing is, people do. Why do we have so many laws restricting how we behave, especially when they don’t seem to work?

Sponsored by Reliafund Payment Processors and Water Butler Water Purification Systems

Colorado Marijuana Legalization-Results-Strange Political Bedfellows-Joshua Kappel-Podcast 730

 

 

 

 

 

 

Summer Doldrums-Surreal News-Truth-Podcasting In A Dream World-Podcast 726

These days it feels like we’re in the Summer Doldrums though Summer doesn’t start until June 21st. Find out why podcasters struggle with political and social commentary in today’s news flow in Summer Doldrums-Surreal News-Truth-Podcasting In A Dream World-Podcast 726.

Dream World

I call it the ‘News-Flow’. The dream world where stories flip flop almost hourly.

News Story Flip Flops

We’re having a trade war. Then we’re not. North Korea is going to make a nuclear deal. News is the deal is off. Now suddenly it’s back. Robert Mueller’s investigation will soon yield explosive results! The FBI planted a mole in the Trump campaign. Roseanne’s new comedy is a hit! Oops. It’s been cancelled. We’ll talk about it in Summer Doldrums-Surreal News-Truth-Podcasting In A Dream World-Podcast 726.

Awash In Commentary and Outrage

Moreover every screaming headline comes with analysis and commentary, predictions and counter commentary from all quarters. They’re only to happy to tell us why everyone else is right or wrong.

Is It Real? Or Is it Social Media?

Especially relevant is the feeling that all of this nonsense is building to a serious crisis. Are we all going crazy? Maybe it’s the Ambien. Or maybe the antidepressants. The full moon anyone?

Journalism or Propaganda?

What’s more advancing story lines is not journalism, it’s propaganda. Do the executives, reporters, producers and presenters understand this? Seems like all they want to do is keep people watching and clicking.

Easier To Talk About Roseanne Than The War In Syria

In conclusion maybe it is easier to talk about Roseanne’s latest fiasco, or how the Press Secretary yelled at a reporter than it is to actually cover the war in Syria. Maybe its cheaper to talk about Hollywood’s latest scandal than it is to explain why gas prices are skyrocketing.

What If?

What if all their story lines are wrong? One podcaster’s thoughts on a moonlit night at the beginning of summer.

Sponsored by Water Butler Water Purification Systems

Summer Doldrums-Surreal News-Truth-Dream World-Podcast 726

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