Trumpers-Think-Political-Polls-Lie-Bob Davis Podcast 862

Republicans Hate Polls…Unless They Show Trump In The Lead

There’s so much bias these days on every media platform there’s no trust. A conversation with a republican friend lead to this podcast about whether polls lie. Find out more by listening to Trumpers-Think-Political-Polls-Lie-Bob Davis Podcast 862.

Who Did The Poll?

First of all when it comes to polling, the first question a republican will ask is, “Who did the poll”. Especially if it reflects poorly on the president. In addition their second favorite response is, “No One Called Me”. Gah!

What Poll Will You Accept?

In contrast I wonder, “What poll would you accept?“.

Polling Explained. Again.

It’s time again to explain polling and the potential for a republican win or loss in 2020.

No bias or predictions. Just the lay of the land.

Accept and Consider Information Challenging Your Position

Above all political true believers reject any poll that doesn’t show their guy winning. Even more, political analysis requires accepting and considering information that challenges you.

Approval Ratings 101

In Trumpers-Think-Political-Polls-Lie-Bob Davis Podcast 862 front and center are approval ratings and their ability to predict winners.

Past Elections

Moreover I’ll look at how you can use polls to make solid judgements. I’ll also talk about the history of past elections as a tool.

Polls Don’t Lie … The Media Lies

Not only do I reject the assertion the polls “lie”. When averaged they can be quite predictive.

Unfortunately the wholesale ignorance of polling in our media is especially relevant. For Example, while the polls in 2016 showed a close race for president, they never predicted a Clinton win.

Trump Struggles In The Battleground States

Finally at issue are tracking polls showing the president’s approval rating in battleground states plummeting. With manufacturing reportedly in recession in Wisconsin and Michigan, republican bosses are concerned. They should be. Trump has to win the battleground states to win a second term.

A Republican Siding With The UAW?

Perhaps it is for that reason that the president is rumored to want to intervene in a current GM strike, in favor of the UAW.

History And No Judgements

Therefore this podcast is valuable because it looks at chances for both a landslide as well as a tough race, without judgements and predictions. There’s a lot of information here about past presidential races, the history of polling and approval ratings. It might come in handy.

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Trumpers-Think-Political-Polls-Lie-Bob Davis Podcast 862

America’s Royalty-Bush-McCain Funerals-Bob Davis Podcast 784

Watching coverage of George HW Bush’s funeral I wondered when we turned our presidents into emperors. Learn more in America’s Royalty-Bush-McCain Funerals-Bob Davis Podcast 784.

Royal Weddings and State Funerals

Moreover I think state funerals in this country are going overboard. The State Funeral has become our answer to British Royal weddings and coronations.

No Pomp and No Titles of Nobility

Most noteworthy our constitution forbids granting of titles of nobility. Furthermore Alexander Hamilton called this the cornerstone of the Republic.

Why No Royalty In The US?

The real founders of this country did something that had never been done before. Our constitution guarantees the sovereignty of the people.

We The People Are The Nobility. Not The Politicians!

Moreover We the people ARE sovereign. Americans don’t need royalty.

In contrast, leave it to the media and the politicians to create a backdrop to make them seem like royalty.

Mediocre Politicians Should Not Be Hailed As National Heroes

These days a mediocre politician who dies can’t just be a guy who lived a full life and served his country. The loss is a national tragedy. The deceased was a “contemporary founding father“, or a “Hero”.  Hence, Bush and McCain funerals carry all the trappings of American Imperial Nobility.

Settling Scores At Funerals Is Bad Form

Even more offensive to me is the penchant some of these people have to settle political scores.

We are submitted to an endless stream of mind numbing stories about politicians who won’t talk to other politicians. Or reports on what clothing was worn and how it was received and so on.

The Media loves these royal funerals. Funerals mean big ratings.

Consequently politicians love funerals. Above all, they love the chance to be seen being seen. I’ve never met a politician who will miss a funeral.

A Macchiavellian World Without Principle

Truth is we’re lauding men and women who came up in a system which demands loyalty. The rules in politics are, never refuse a favor. Dance with the one who brung ye. Be a good boy. Good boys get rewarded. Long political careers sand away the rough edges and principles.

Is This What We Want?

Finally these days people complain a lot about politicians. The people say their representatives don’t listen and aren’t true to their word.

Here we have President Bush who famously pledged “Read My Lips, No New Taxes”, then raised taxes.

Then we have John McCain, who torpedoed the repeal of the Affordable Care Act. Remember, the republican majority, and the president ran on repeal legislation. This is heroism?

In conclusion I think we should remember, no matter how high the media holds them up, even presidents are chosen by the people. We delegate our sovereign authority to them. It’s not the other way around.

They are not Caesars.

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America’s Royalty-Bush-McCain Funerals-Bob Davis Podcast 784

 

Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756

As I do the last two podcasts in the toss up series at the Bob Davis Podcasts, more predictions of a democrat wave are most notable. Are these predictions true? We’ll find out in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756.

Shellacking

In addition to commentators AP reported this week that republican pollsters are telling top republicans they’re in for a shellacking in November.

As a mission of the Bob Davis Podcasts I have been looking at those elections deemed ‘toss ups’ by the experts.

Conventional Wisdom Is Right Until Wrong

Especially relevant is the idea behind the mission. No predictions. Non partisan. What is the situation in these key districts in the final weeks of the election. Readers, subscribers and listeners might be surprised to learn very few public polls exist. Conventional wisdom drives most of these predictions. I detail this for each toss up in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756.

Close Elections Don’t Always Mean Flips

From North Carolina to Texas in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756. Toss up races are simply close elections for whatever reason. Moreover most US House elections are in solid democrat or republican districts. This year some say there are more than 40 districts that will be close. Why they’re close is key.

Open Seats And Changing Geography

In some cases the district is an open seat because of retirements. In other cases, the contours of the district’s geography have changed. What was once a solid republican or democrat district is now supposedly more ‘balanced’.

Everyone Hates Congress…

Finally the real question in the 2018 midterms is whether people will vote their opinions of the president or local concerns. The old saying goes, everyone hates congress but not their congressman.

One Size Fits All Election?

In conclusion I spent a fair amount of time not only looking through the data for these districts but also watching some of the internet and TV ads for candidates. Sometimes it’s hard to tell the republican from the democrat. This is not a one size fits all election even though the media would have its viewers believe it is.

Once I finish this series in this podcast, and the next, I’ll do one more podcast with my analysis since there isn’t much time for that in these podcasts dealing with individual districts.

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Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756