Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756

As I do the last two podcasts in the toss up series at the Bob Davis Podcasts, more predictions of a democrat wave are most notable. Are these predictions true? We’ll find out in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756.

Shellacking

In addition to commentators AP reported this week that republican pollsters are telling top republicans they’re in for a shellacking in November.

As a mission of the Bob Davis Podcasts I have been looking at those elections deemed ‘toss ups’ by the experts.

Conventional Wisdom Is Right Until Wrong

Especially relevant is the idea behind the mission. No predictions. Non partisan. What is the situation in these key districts in the final weeks of the election. Readers, subscribers and listeners might be surprised to learn very few public polls exist. Conventional wisdom drives most of these predictions. I detail this for each toss up in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756.

Close Elections Don’t Always Mean Flips

From North Carolina to Texas in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756. Toss up races are simply close elections for whatever reason. Moreover most US House elections are in solid democrat or republican districts. This year some say there are more than 40 districts that will be close. Why they’re close is key.

Open Seats And Changing Geography

In some cases the district is an open seat because of retirements. In other cases, the contours of the district’s geography have changed. What was once a solid republican or democrat district is now supposedly more ‘balanced’.

Everyone Hates Congress…

Finally the real question in the 2018 midterms is whether people will vote their opinions of the president or local concerns. The old saying goes, everyone hates congress but not their congressman.

One Size Fits All Election?

In conclusion I spent a fair amount of time not only looking through the data for these districts but also watching some of the internet and TV ads for candidates. Sometimes it’s hard to tell the republican from the democrat. This is not a one size fits all election even though the media would have its viewers believe it is.

Once I finish this series in this podcast, and the next, I’ll do one more podcast with my analysis since there isn’t much time for that in these podcasts dealing with individual districts.

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Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756

 

Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 1-Bob Davis Podcast 753

Every two years the entire US House of Representatives has to run for election. The predictions of the prognosticators concerning these elections are most noteworthy. The sages say as many as 58 republican seats are in jeopardy. We’ll find out in a series of podcasts that examine each of these house races in detail. Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 1-Bob Davis Podcast 753.

Predictions Are Dangerous

I hate predictions, Moreover I find while the media loves to ‘nationalize’ house and senate elections most of the time they turn on local issues not the national issues. One of the reasons predictions are often be wrong.

Especially relevant, so many of these races are considered toss ups.

Calibrating The Crystal Ball

There’s only way to determine whether men staring into crystal balls can predict the future. You have to examine each district one at a time.

In part one we look at several districts in California, Colorado, and Florida. More are on the way.

Travel Makes Great Political Analysis

I am happy to say I have been to many of these districts in Mobile Podcast Command. ‘Just passing through’ doesn’t give you some gift for the truth but it does help to visualize. Because I travel I have additional knowledge that is invaluable when it comes to understanding what’s going on in some of these elections.

Pivot Counties Are Well…Pivotal

Similarly it helps to have visited to some of the so called ‘Pivot Counties‘ and to have traveled through areas these guys on TV probably have not seen recently, if ever. It all adds up to the realization that all politics really is local.

New Political Environment?

Because I traveled in 2016 I was able to to realize early on something different was brewing. I think we’re still in a new political environment. All the more reason not to avoid the tarot card readers on TV. Listen to Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 1-Bob Davis Podcast 753 instead.

No Predictions Just Information And a Baseline For You

While I won’t predict anything in 2018 I think it is fair to say we’re in a new environment politically in which almost anything can happen. Moreover whatever is happening may not show up in polls and primary election data.

Isn’t that what makes watching the outcome so much fun?

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Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 1-Bob Davis Podcast 753

Franken Resigns-GOP Celebrates-Sexual Politics Rules-Podcast 683

Minnesota Senator Al Franken announced his impending resignation on December 7th, 2017. A can of worms popped open for both political parties as Minnesota and National Republicans and Democrats try to figure out the aftermath. We’ll talk about it in Franken Resigns-GOP Celebrates-Sexual Politics Rules-Podcast 683.

Welcome To The Age Of American Ignorance

These days people wonder what has happened to American politics. To answer that question, one need only to turn to social media. What passes for political discourse these days is nothing more than ignorant shouting, name calling and demanding that they all get what they want right now.

Garbage In Garbage Out

Especially relevant is what happens when a real crisis develops. A Tax Reform package. The aftermath of the resignation of a senator. Moreover what passes for ‘news’ on biased platforms is garbage. We’ll try to balance that in Franken Resigns-GOP Celebrates-Sexual Politics Rules-Podcast 683.

Minnesota As Political Ground Zero In 2018

Minnesotans can look forward to an especially hot political season, starting in January 2018. There will certainly be two senate seats up for grabs in 2018 and one in 2020. With a close race for republicans in Alabama the senate and future of the country hangs in the balance. Why is Franken delaying his departure? Who will his replacement be?

Thermidor II

Finally, a cautionary note. In conclusion a podcaster wonders whether the politics of personal destruction has become a little like the aftermath of the French Revolution. A mob sending shocked victims to the gallows. In this case, the gallows of public opinion. While not defending whatever the accused have been accused of, it is true that they have not been able to face their accusers in a court where they have a chance to present a defense and question the character of their accused, the way their character has been questioned.

This does not end well. Just sayin’

(Editor’s Note: Some people have wondered how the governor would ‘appoint himself’ to be the next senator from Minnesota. The governor resigns and the Lieutenant Governor then appoints the former governor to the senate. In 1976 Minnesota governor Wendell Anderson resigned to be appointed to the senate by Lieutenant Governor Rudy Perpich. The DFL suffered a stinging defeat at the next election. This defeat was ever after called ‘The Minnesota Massacre‘.)

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Franken Resigns-GOP Celebrates-Sexual Politics Rules-Podcast 683