Final Approach-Lock Down-Election 2018-Bob Davis Podcast 773

These days everyone on the air everywhere seems hell bent for leather to predict the future. Moreover they’re also often partisan commentators. In this final podcast before the election, what to look for on election night. Get details in Final Approach-Lock Down-Election 2018-Bob Davis Podcast 773.

No Predictions

I don’t do predictions. For the purposes of election coverage at The Bob Davis Podcasts, I don’t do partisanship.

Has Donald Trump Changed Politics?

For election 2018 I have two especially relevant questions. First, have the tactics of President Donald Trump changed American politics? Second, are the media’s predictions skewed? Get it all in Final Approach-Lock Down-Election 2018-Bob Davis Podcast 773.

Nine Podcasts Detailing Toss Up Races

I’ve done nine podcasts detailing the so called toss up races for House, Senate and Governors across the country. Listen to them here. These podcasts explain the media storyline which is that President Trump will lose the house, at the very least.

Democrats Need 26 Wins

Democrats need to win at least 26 seats in order to take back the house. With over 60 toss up races, according to some analysts the storyline that there will be a change in House leadership is easily sold. Moreover taking back the Senate will be even more difficult. In Final Approach-Lock Down-Election 2018-Bob Davis Podcast 773 I explain why it might not be that easy.

Decide For Yourself

Finally if you’re watching TV on election night you need to know what to look for so you can decide for yourself what the chances of a change in House or Senate leadership is a possible outcome.

No Polling Bad Polling

Truth is many ‘toss up’ classifications for House elections across the country don’t even have polling to back it up. What’s more what polling exists is either spotty, dated, to skewed. I explain why, where and how in Final Approach-Lock Down-Election 2018-Bob Davis Podcast 773.

What To Watch For In Each Time Zone On Election Night

Working our way west from Virginia and Florida, to the central and mountain time zones, all the way to the Pacific, I take a look at the headline elections. House, Senate and Governors. What will pick ups or holds for either mainline political party mean for the final tally?

Minnesota May Tell The Story

In conclusion I don’t know which way this election will turn but I can tell you what to look for as it happens. Listeners and Subscribers in Minnesota will be especially interested in the part of the podcast that deals with the Land Of Ten Thousand Lakes, because Minnesota has at least four nail biter elections, on which control of the House at least could rest.

Finally there are over one hundred ballot measures which could effect voter turn out in some key states. For a complete state by state list, go here.

(Editor’s Note: Another number thrown about for Democrat control of the House is 23. My calculations say they need 25 seats. Some say 26 to cement control of the chamber. For political watchers, if Democrats gain up to 23 seats before the end of the night on November 6th 2018, a majority is pretty much guaranteed at that point).

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

 

Final Approach-Lock Down-Election 2018-Bob Davis Podcast 773

 

2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752

Most people these days don’t dial into elections until after Labor Day. I’m doing a series of podcasts to get you updated on all the so called ‘toss up’ races. Learn more about the Governor’s races in 2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752.

Old Saws Predict Races?

Moreover pundits and statisticians are hell bent for leather to tell you who’s going to win every race. Most noteworthy are the ‘old saws’ of politics. Predictions based on truisms and sayings.

You’re Right Until You’re Wrong

Maybe these old ways of predicting outcomes combined with new data are right. My experience is, they’re right until they’re wrong. I’ll explain in 2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752.

Let The People Decide

Also I believe people should be able to make decisions about who they think is going to win, and who to vote for, without being told who’s going to win three months before election day. Wouldn’t you like to hear some information about this elections without someone telling you who’s going to win? That’s what I do in 2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752.

Local Or National?

For example we’re told that national issues are driving all the races in the 2018 Midterm Elections. Is this true? Or is it possible local issues may be central? In some states taxes and budgets. In others, mining vs environment and business versus agriculture.

States Are Bigger Than You Think

One thing I’ve learned traveling back and forth across this country on two lane roads is the individual states of these United States are very diverse and a lot larger than they look on a map. How does this fact impact the race? Find out in 2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752.

Too Close To Call? Check Again

Finally how many of these races are actually ‘toss ups’. How many contests between gubernatorial candidates really are too close to call? You might be surprised at the answer.

Red or Blue May Not Be

In conclusion the experts say the number of states under partisan party control is important. States are either ‘blue’ or ‘red’. Are all republicans and democrats created equal? Or is the truth somewhere in the middle?

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752

Remembering Art Bell-Radio Stories-Legends-Podcast 714

Radio legend Art Bell passed away on Friday, April 13th 2018. Bell’s show, Coast To Coast, was creative and unique. Time to talk about Art’s impact on me and reminisce about radio in Remembering Art Bell-Radio Stories-Legends-Podcast 714.

All Night Wonder

Many stayed up all night to listen to the show. Who got any work done when we stood around talking about Martians, ghosts, aliens living in the hollow earth or The End Of The World?

Saving AM Radio For A Time

These days, radio has become a wasteland of partisan political operatives shouting, cajoling, attempting to persuade. Many broadcasters have given Rush Limbaugh credit for ‘saving AM Radio’, and he certainly deserves his props. On the other hand, many forget that Art Bell probably had as much to do with resurrecting the AM Band for a short time during the 1990’s. For a kid from Chicago who spent summers sitting on the front steps all night listening to the radio, that meant something.

Creating A World You Could Never Forget

Furthermore, it isn’t the political shows I will remember from the past twenty years. It’s the Art Bell shows. The guy from Area 51. Father Malachi Martin. Gary North. Ed Dames and every other crazy person on that show. You knew it was nuts to believe this stuff. But when you’re rolling through the wastelands of Wisconsin at three in the morning, struggling to pull in a thousand watt AM station out of Rice Lake, it seems real. Because Bell was so good at creating a world where anything was possible and probably true.

For radio people, the ability to create a new world, using only spoken word, is truly significant.

The Broken Down Radio Station On The Edge Of Town

Art Bell had a big impact on me because he brought me back to my roots. The radio station in a corn field. On the edge of town. A single tower blinking red in the wilderness. The possibilities endless.

When The Guy On The Radio Was Your Best Friend

So it’s time to tell some stories. A tribute of sorts from someone, like many, who never knew Art Bell. As a listener we felt we he was our best friend. A throw back to the DJ’s of the 1960’s and 1970’s on the big AM stations in the big cities. Or to struggling to pull in a radio station with a big signal in a far away city.

A Voice In The Night

Most noteworthy is the fact that the experience of listening in the night is gone. Replaced with artless and amateur You Tube Channels predictIng the end of the world.

Making Magic

It is good to remember the magic that Art Bell created as a guide for podcasters. I doubt seriously radio will ever be able to accommodate a talent like Bell again.

Sponsored by Reliafund Payment Processors and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

Remembering Art Bell-Radio Stories-Legends-Podcast 714

Truth About 2018 US Senate Predictions-Fairy Tales-Podcast 712

They are at it again. Pundits and talking heads are telling us who’s going to win the 2018 mid term elections. What is the truth about 2018? Find out in Truth About 2018 US Senate Predictions-Fairy Tales-Podcast 712.

Election Day Tuesday November 6th 2018

Tuesday, November 6th, 2018 is a big day. Up for election is the entire US House of Representatives and one third of the US Senate. Governors and state legislators are also up for election on this day.

It Comes Down To Key Races For Republicans and Democrats

This podcast focuses on the US Senate race in 2018. Specifically on several key races that may decide the majority. This is critical for President Trump’s agenda from 2019 and his reelection effort in 2020. Learn the basic contours of these races in Truth About 2018 US Senate Predictions-Fairy Tales-Podcast 712.

The Media IS Doing It Again

Problem is the media has already decided the outcome of this election. It will be democrat wave, they say. The reason? Big national issues favor the democrats. Gun Control. The Me Too movement. Immigration. Trade Protection. Is this true?

These days it seems like when the media says something is going to go one way, it often goes another. I will not tell you what’s going to happen. The Bob Davis Podcasts isn’t in the business of predicting the future, telling people what to think or who to vote for. As in 2016, I’ll try to stick to the facts we know about these races and let you decide what to think about them.

Battleground Senate Races

This podcast focuses on US Senate races in key states considered ‘battlegrounds’. Truth is, republicans are defending fewer vulnerable seats than democratic candidates. Whether than means the GOP will hold onto their majority in the US Senate is quite another question.

All Politics Is Local – Especially Statewide Senate Races

Moreover, Senate races may be effected by national issues, but they are statewide races. Personality and local issues are major factors in such elections. I spend a little time in this podcast outlining examples of regional and geographic political differences. Check it out in Truth About 2018 US Senate Predictions-Fairy Tales-Podcast 712.

Time for Truth about 2018 US Senate Predictions in Podcast 712

In conclusion, despite what the pundits and so called experts tell you, national issues that seem to benefit republicans or democrats, don’t always benefit candidates in tight races in their home states.

Sponsored by Reliafund Payment Processors and Ryan Plumbing and Heating Of Saint Paul

Truth About 2018 US Senate Predictions-Fairy Tales-Podcast 712

 

 

 

Podcast 604-We Don’t Need No Stinking Principles

Bob Davis Podcast Radio Show #67

In Podcast 604-We Don’t Need No Stinking Principles. He is known as Milo. A self described agent provocateur. A guy who took it to the left using the left’s tactic. A person who could cause left wingers to spontaneously combust. Taken down by the right. Another personality raised up to do people’s thinking for them. Someone to speak for so called conservatives.

These days videos and articles by personalities suffice as arguments. Someone getting the best of you on FaceBook? Don’t like someone’s tweet? Bam! Throw up the Milo video and the other guy is toast. Want to say something about politics? Post someone’s video or article about what you think. It’s the ‘What He Said’ method of political discourse. Of course the bigger they are the harder they fall.

Suddenly a heavily edited video tape from the near past emerged. Milo allegedly appearing to condone pedophilia, Goodbye Breitbart. See ya later Book Deal. Forget about taking the purple at the Vatican Conclave known as ‘CPAC‘. Post that Milo video now and you’re a pedophile too. There’s a vacuum in the market for ‘What He Said’ videos and articles. Don’t worry. Plenty of future Milo’s into the breech, boys.

Principles Over Personalities

We’re urged to put principles over personalities. What principles? What are the principles of the republican party? Free markets. Oh wait. We’re talking about trade protection. Republicans and so called conservatives are for Freedom too. Oops! Not if you’re taking about increasing NSA surveillance of people we don’t like. The GOP is for lower deficits and ‘smaller’ government. Oh wait. We’re going to have a trillion dollar stimulus package and cut taxes. So. Yeah. Before people can support principles over personalities a political movement has to have some principles. Neither the republicans or the democrats have any. Welcome to Podcast 604-We Don’t Need No Stinking Principles.

Business Unfriendly

Also in Podcast 604-We Don’t Need No Stinking Principles. A new study ranks the most business friendly states. Vermont and Minnesota lead the least business friendly states. Nevada, Texas and South Dakota lead the most business friendly. The biggest problem according to the study is that the least business friendly states seemingly have no intention of addressing the thicket of taxes and regulations that prevent the formation of small scalable businesses. A little principle here might be useful. Of course most of the time its republicans in states like Minnesota that often are the first to propose more government solutions to problems created by too much government.

Taxing Robots

Robots and AI are nothing more than sophisticated tools. People think nothing of using the wheel or a wrench but break out in a cold sweat when confronted with the feared robot. Bill Gates has a solution for all that. Tax Robots. Employees are usually the biggest cost center for businesses. Its natural to want to cut those costs as much as possible. Cutting costs and freeing human capital to do better things is a natural part of human progress. Let’s slow it down by making robots more expensive. Principles? Lots to talk about in Podcast 604-We Don’t Need No Stinking Principles.

Sponsored by Hydrus Performance and Brush Studio in the West end.

 

Podcast 583-Summer Storm

Podcast 583-Summer Storm. Nothing better than a summer storm to help you forget the bitter cold. It’s well below zero in Minnesota. While Europe and parts of the South consider mid twenties to thirties ‘bitter’ cold, in the Upper Midwest we’re talking minus twenty, thirty or even forty below. This is the kind of cold you don’t need windchill to exaggerate. If you’re in the deep freeze this podcast is designed to provide a half an hour or so of relief.

Last summer I had a chance to record a huge summer storm that rolled through the area. The storm track on this podcast isn’t edited. It was recorded in real time, complete with bouts of heavy rain and thunder. Interspersed throughout the storm are some thought starters to help subscribers to the Bob Davis Podcasts mentally escape.

Maybe when you were a kid your family did a road trip to Florida. Or while in college you and your friends took a trip through the mountains, or the desert. Many have had one of those summer college jobs for some agricultural company that required rolling around on back roads across Iowa and North Dakota, recording the growth of corn, or whatever those companies require people to write down on clipboards.

For me, sitting in a broken down old ’67 Ford Galaxy in the fields and watching the storms roll in across the prairie in Rural Illinois, will always remind me of deep summer. It’s easy for people to say, “Why don’t you get on a plane and go to LA, or Hawaii”. Yes, it sure would be nice. Thing is, not all of us can do that.

As we head into the deep freeze, keep this podcast handy. Put on your headphones for Podcast 583-Summer Storm and prepare to be transported to my porch during an awesome summer storm. Of course, you’ll have to put up with me talking in your ear about places I’ve been and places to go, but it’s better than looking out the window wishing it wasn’t twenty five below.

It is true we welcome the cold weather, at least the first blush and especially at Christmas Time. Trust me, though. You’re going to want to escape. If you can’t get away as soon as you’d like to or at all this year, Podcast 583-Summer Storm is your ticket to paradise. Summer in the Midwest. Storms. Thunder. Steady Rain. The hum of summer insects. Thoughts of rolling down two lane roads cutting through green fields. Freedom is a clean windshield and a full tank of gas.

Sponsored By Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul and Hydrus Performance.

Podcast 569-Final State by State Round Up

Podcast 569-Final State by State Round Up. Where the state polls stand for presidential candidates right before election day 2016. This podcast does not endorse a candidate. I will not make you feel good or bad about your vote, or non vote. I will not attach ‘indexes’ and ‘percentage probabilities’ to potential wins or losses for the candidates. In Podcast 569-Final State by State Round Up, how candidates fare in each of the states according to existing polls. Partisan and advocacy journalists don’t provide insight on survey research. I do. What you’re getting from the cable news channels and advocacy news ‘websites’ are charlatans pushing their point of view. Fact is, no one knows how the election will play out in any of the so called battleground states. That’s because despite all the best effort, even the best political researchers are challenged to determine who is actually going to show up to vote especially when the polls show a close vote, within the margins of error. Elections are made on who votes. Not the number of signs. Not the number of people who show up at rallies. Not who ran the best TV spots. It’s all about getting the vote out. Once the vote is in, it’s all about counting. Is the election rigged? In a sense, yes. The United States is a representative republic which elects its executive not by the popular vote but through an institution known as the Electoral College. Some states’ electoral slates are proportionally chosen. Some states select electoral slates by party. The electors themselves have already been chosen. They will actually select the President of the United States on December 15th, 2016. In some states the popular vote determines how the electors are ‘supposed’ to vote. In some states it depends on which party’s candidate wins the overall vote. No so called ‘rogue elector‘ has ever been prosecuted for voting outside the state statute guidelines. In the event of an electoral tie, the election will be decided by the US House of Representatives. One thing is true, the republicans are the ones talking about ‘rigged’ elections right now, but if Donald Trump wins the presidency they’ll stop talking about that immediately and the democrats will start talking about things being ‘rigged’. The only thing coverage of these kinds of conspiracies do is reduce the faith Americans and the rest of the world has in the electoral process. In reality, ‘rigging’ a national election is a difficult task, despite what movies and conspiracy theorists say. If you are concerned about your candidate winning the election, the best thing you can do is turn off the TV and get out and help them win by driving people to the polls or making last minute calls, poll watching, or if you’re qualified, volunteering as an election judge. Thankfully we’ll be looking at election night results in the next podcast. Sponsored by Hydrus Performance and Brush Studio, in the West End, Saint Louis Park.

Podcast 566-BobDavisRadioShow-50

Podcast 566-BobDavisRadioShow-50. October final State By State Poll roundup. Podcast 566-BobDavisRadioShow-50 covers the hysteria around polling these days and what to watch for in the final two weeks of campaigning. Charlatans abound in the political world. Almost everyone telling you one candidate, or the other, is going to win has a hidden agenda. Some want to make themselves famous. Some are shilling for a candidate. Ignorance on what political research actually is has now commingled with Trump’s claims the polls and thus the election are rigged. My response to a subscriber email about push polls is typical. Someone, somewhere talked about push polls so now everyone thinks the polls are push polls. Or, the John Podesta email suggesting internal polling over same democrats has everyone convinced all the pollsters are in the tank for Clinton. Sigh. The polls used on Real Clear Politics, and the polls I use for Podcast 566-BobDavisRadioShow-50 are polls taken by media organizations or university political science departments. A push poll is a poll designed to ‘push’ a respondent into voting one way or another. Usually there is very little polling data collected in so called Push Polls. Are the polls right? A good poll isn’t right or wrong, it is reliable. Listen to this show and you’ll know more about polling than anyone on your block. Listen to the other podcasts about polling I have done and you’ll understand more about what is going on. First, it is not a popular vote that elects the President of the United States. The US Election is an electoral affair so all the action is in the state by state polls. You can aggregate these polls. You can average these polls. However, you cannot aggregate and average them and place a probability on whether one or the other candidate will win. All the poll averaging does is give you a birds eye view of the battlefield. The must win electoral states change election cycle to election cycle. No predictions will be made here. I will give you a truthful and honest analysis of where the mainline campaigns stand on the eve of election day, 2016. Sponsored by Hydrus Performance, Ryan Plumbing and X Government Cars.

Podcast 555-The Bob Davis Radio Show-46

Podcast 555-The Bob Davis Radio Show-46. An all new podcast doubling as the radio show for this week. There’s two considerations here. First, if you’re a subscriber to The Bob Davis Podcasts, repeating content in the radio show is, well, repetitive. Second, the podcasts this week, whether Podcast 554 (State by State poll run down) or Podcast 553 (Interview with AgoraFest‘s Nik Ludwig), the content doesn’t lend itself well to be excerpted. So, for Podcast 555-The Bob Davis Radio Show-46, I did a completely new segment updating the polling data for just the so called ‘Toss-Up’ States in Election 2016 with special attention paid to the Senate races in key states. I also added a segment with a little bit more of a primer about polls, and how they are used or misused in media coverage. These two benchmarks; Podcast 554 and Podcast 555-The Bob Davis Radio Show-46 are great to listen to because then when you hear or see new information on state by state polling, you’ll understand which states are important and how the polling in that state may have changed. You’ll also understand trending polls from different pollsters isn’t necessarily providing an accurate picture of what’s going to happen when people actually vote. I use the electoral map from Real Clear Politics and you can follow along if you want. Others are available. Almost all of them are interactive. Finally, some words about Individual Sovereignty. There’s a lot of back-and-forth in this election cycle and a lot of coverage of the back-and-forth; What this one said about that one, whether this is going to effect his or her poll numbers. There’s a lot of content from shills defending one candidate or attacking another. There’s been very little actual discussion about what freedom is or how these new representatives, senators and presidents are going to insure we get to keep it. We can get distracted by the shiny things in the woods, or we can stay focused on claiming our personal sovereignty. How we personally define freedom in the coming months and years is going to become very important. The current two-party system is coming to an end. That is; The Republican and Democratic parties have lost touch with the people. Something new is coming and we need to make sure whatever that is protects and defends our individual freedom. Sponsored by X Government Cars.

Podcast 554-Latest Election State By State Polls

Podcast 554-Latest Election State By State Polls. For you political junkies, which includes me, it’s been a month since the last analysis of political polls state by state, and I promised another one at the end of September, 2016. If you want to compare the two state by state poll podcasts to really get a sense of movement check out Podcast 541. I do not intend to analyze the debate. I will not tell you who won the debate. I will not tell you whether people pay attention to the debates. None of the current state by state polls were taken after the debates so they do not reflect the effects on either candidate of the debates. With this in mind, over 80 million people watched the September 26th debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. The next state-by-state poll roundup podcast at the end of October will show what effect – if any – the debates may or may not have had. The biggest change between this podcast and the podcast in late August is that there are now more ‘toss up’ states — that is states with poll averages for president within the margin of error. In Podcast 554-State By State Polls, I am drawing on data from Real Clear Politics. Follow the link directly to an interactive electoral map of the United States and follow along, or may your own map. The tightening could be knock on effects from Clinton’s bad week of September 11th, or it could just be due to more polls closer to the election, when respondents start paying attention and are more likely to give responses. You’ll have to listen for my conclusions about whether more toss up states mean anything, but for the most part, both candidates are within the margins in 2012 and 2008 in the states they lead, or are trading leads. The big questions remain Florida, Ohio, Pennsyvania, Virginia, and to a lesser extent North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, and western states like Colorado, Arizona and Nevada. This is a state by state electoral election, so the national polls don’t matter, and the snap polls on who won the debate don’t matter. All that matters is the candidate’s performance, and get out the vote efforts for them in key electoral states. Listen and learn the state by state strongholds, battlegrounds, advantages and disadvantages, roughly a month out. We’ll come back at the end of October and again just before the election in early November, and see how the campaigning, media, and news events have changed the political landscape. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing of Saint Paul.